UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[JimJamUK]

Tbf we’ve still held Upper Hunter lmao. Shades of Ripon 2018, amidst an urban shellacking a rural seat on a wafer thin sun 1% majority just doesn’t budge. And indeed most of the rurals don’t budge either.

Fair comment, perhaps better examples would be Monaro and Strathfield which saw significant swings to Labor from the by-elections despite it being a ‘rule’ in politics that there are swings back to the government come a general election. The latter will often be the case, but there have to be reasons for it to happen rather than just automatically expecting people to become more inclined to vote for the government.

[EastAnglianLefty]

If in the next election the Tories get smashed as badly as they did in 1997, how many current ministers would lose?

Raab would lose to the Lib Dems and Hunt might; Ben Wallace's seat is disappearing so unless Nigel Evans retires he's out; Mordaunt, Shapps and David TC Davies are all potentially vulnerable to Labour if it's a big defeat; Jack was on course to lose to the SNP until Sturgeon resigns but who knows now?

There are a few others who might lose if the gap is more like 20 points than 15, but by and large the members of the Cabinet represent very safely Tory shire seats rather than more urban areas.

[Torrain]

As an addendum - from what I’ve heard, it’s not clear which seat Suella Braverman will run in.

Her seat’s going to be carved up, and Flick Drummond (an anonymous but diligent constituency MP) is poised to beat her in the selection for the primary successor to their old seats. She’d have to unseat an incumbent MP in a neighbouring seat if Drummond beats her, and it might be too late by then.

Apparently her other backup plan is to petition to be selected in Windsor (where Adam Afriyie is retiring) but that’s not a seat that fits her hardliner approach, and is vulnerable to the Lib Dems in a particularly bruising cycle.

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

If in the next election the Tories get smashed as badly as they did in 1997, how many current ministers would lose?

Raab would lose to the Lib Dems and Hunt might; Ben Wallace's seat is disappearing so unless Nigel Evans retires he's out; Mordaunt, Shapps and David TC Davies are all potentially vulnerable to Labour if it's a big defeat; Jack was on course to lose to the SNP until Sturgeon resigns but who knows now?

There are a few others who might lose if the gap is more like 20 points than 15, but by and large the members of the Cabinet represent very safely Tory shire seats rather than more urban areas.

Virtually no one would be guaranteed to keep their seat if the lead is 20% or more.

[MABA 2020]

Surprised it only took a very slight change in the polls for people to suddenly jump into maybe the Tories will win mode. I'm sure this is what they've been waiting for

[Property Representative of the Harold Holt Swimming Centre]

Surprised it only took a very slight change in the polls for people to suddenly jump into maybe the Tories will win mode. I'm sure this is what they've been waiting for

There was an infamous poll during the 1997 campaign showing Labour ahead by only 5%. This might have contributed to Portillo's comments mentioned earlier in the thread.

[CumbrianLefty]

Surprised it only took a very slight change in the polls for people to suddenly jump into maybe the Tories will win mode. I'm sure this is what they've been waiting for

Yes it all looks suspiciously orchestrated doesn't it.

Fortunately, most people hold our utterly dreadful "opinion forming" class in deserved contempt.

[MillennialModerate]

I’ve said all along this landslide talk was nonsense.

This is not a Blair like moment.

Especially with the baked in Tory advantage in the map with Scotland being SNP land now.

I’d say Labour a favorite for sure. But a Tory win more likely than a Labour landslide
(which is shocking when you look at what the Tories have done to the UK in recent years)

[CumbrianLefty]

Thank you for your contribution, which has been duly noted.

[Torrain]

Bit of YouGov polling on Sunak’s much vaunted “5 pledges”:

[Torrain]

Bit of last-minute civility, between two politicians who've had a stormy relationship in recent times. Nice bit of goodwill from both:
https://twitter.com/Douglas4Moray/status/1640385113107189761

[Joe Republic]

Last week was the one year anniversary of the last poll to show the Tories with any type of position of strength against Labour (both were tied at 36%).

They haven't actually led in any polls since December 2021.

[Conservatopia]

The government is pushing some kind of change to renting laws including a change whereby "yobs" in council houses could be evicted if they create too much disturbance.

This is personal for Sunak as he used to have a neighbour who lived in a government-owned house and who used to hold raucous parties. Eventually this neighbour got into trouble with the law and was evicted.

[Zinneke]

The government is pushing some kind of change to renting laws including a change whereby "yobs" in council houses could be evicted if they create too much disturbance.

This is personal for Sunak as he used to have a neighbour who lived in a government-owned house and who used to hold raucous parties. Eventually this neighbour got into trouble with the law and was evicted.

Given Sunak was also fined, that makes him a yob too no?

And more seriously, will these new laws tackling yobbish behaviour apply to Bullingdon Club members?

[CumbrianLefty]

Last week was the one year anniversary of the last poll to show the Tories with any type of position of strength against Labour (both were tied at 36%).

They haven't actually led in any polls since December 2021.

And as I think I said before, that poll actually showed a Labour lead of almost 1% before rounding.

[NewYorkExpress]

The owner of the Guardian apologized for the role the paper's founders played in the transatlantic slave trade.

The owner of the Guardian has issued an apology for the role the newspaper’s founders had in transatlantic slavery and announced a decade-long programme of restorative justice.

The Scott Trust said it expected to invest more than £10m (US$12.3m, A$18.4m), with millions dedicated specifically to descendant communities linked to the Guardian’s 19th-century founders.

It follows independent academic research commissioned in 2020 to investigate whether there was any historical connection between chattel slavery and John Edward Taylor, the journalist and cotton merchant who founded the newspaper in 1821, and the other Manchester businessmen who funded its creation.

The Scott Trust Legacies of Enslavement report, published on Tuesday, revealed that Taylor, and at least nine of his 11 backers, had links to slavery, principally through the textile industry. Taylor had multiple links through partnerships in the cotton manufacturing firm Oakden & Taylor, and the cotton merchant company Shuttleworth, Taylor & Co, which imported vast amounts of raw cotton produced by enslaved people in the Americas.

[Continential]

I’ve said all along this landslide talk was nonsense.

This is not a Blair like moment.

Especially with the baked in Tory advantage in the map with Scotland being SNP land now.

I’d say Labour a favorite for sure. But a Tory win more likely than a Labour landslide
(which is shocking when you look at what the Tories have done to the UK in recent years)

tl;dr a labour landslide is more likely than a tory win

[afleitch]

Certain heids explode

https://mobile.twitter.com/HumzaYousaf/status/1640820255080554496

[CumbrianLefty]

The absence of females from the first picture has been noted, mind.

[Cassius]

The absence of females from the first picture has been noted, mind.

I think the mother is obscured by the scooter acrobat in the first photo, in all fairness.

[Tintrlvr]

Surprised it only took a very slight change in the polls for people to suddenly jump into maybe the Tories will win mode. I'm sure this is what they've been waiting for

There was an infamous poll during the 1997 campaign showing Labour ahead by only 5%. This might have contributed to Portillo's comments mentioned earlier in the thread.

The polling error in 1992 surely didn't help either.

[CumbrianLefty]

Lots of Labour people were *very* wary after 1992, that much is certainly the case.

[Torrain]

Just trying to imagine the response if Kate Forbes' first act as First Minister was to do a photoshoot of her extended family praying together in Bute House.

Personally, I'd probably have a wee jibe about Matthew 6:6. But the general response would likely be... poor - but from different quarters.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The owner of the Guardian apologized for the role the paper's founders played in the transatlantic slave trade.

The owner of the Guardian has issued an apology for the role the newspaper’s founders had in transatlantic slavery and announced a decade-long programme of restorative justice.

The Scott Trust said it expected to invest more than £10m (US$12.3m, A$18.4m), with millions dedicated specifically to descendant communities linked to the Guardian’s 19th-century founders.

It follows independent academic research commissioned in 2020 to investigate whether there was any historical connection between chattel slavery and John Edward Taylor, the journalist and cotton merchant who founded the newspaper in 1821, and the other Manchester businessmen who funded its creation.

The Scott Trust Legacies of Enslavement report, published on Tuesday, revealed that Taylor, and at least nine of his 11 backers, had links to slavery, principally through the textile industry. Taylor had multiple links through partnerships in the cotton manufacturing firm Oakden & Taylor, and the cotton merchant company Shuttleworth, Taylor & Co, which imported vast amounts of raw cotton produced by enslaved people in the Americas.

It's one thing if there were actual investments in the abominable trade, but quite another if we're talking of a commercial relationship with the results. Those same mills will have employed local children, and will have used (both directly and indirection through e.g. iron and steel in the machinery) coal produced in very dangerous conditions and often, again, featuring children in the production process. Most of the factories will have had slate roofs, and the production of that was also notoriously exploitative at the time. Are we going to get 'apologies' for all that as well, given that there is no obvious moral distinction?

[MABA 2020]

Lots of Labour people were *very* wary after 1992, that much is certainly the case.

Can't blame them to be fair, I would've been too