Japan 2022 Upper House elections July 10
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Author Topic: Japan 2022 Upper House elections July 10  (Read 19011 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #150 on: May 15, 2022, 06:25:29 AM »

It seems old dormant Far-Right 維新政党・新風 (IPS) (Ishin Party Shimpu) is also going to run a bunch of candidates.

This election cycle the minor party energy is all on the Far Right.  We have the 2 standard protest parties (PNHK which appeals to both the Right and Left protest) and HRP which has a protest Far-Right appeal.  But both are more about anti-system and protest votes than any idelogy.  Beyond that, we now have 4 Far-Right minor parties that seem to be going all out this cycle while the lean Left EP (Euthanasia Party) and Far-Left WP(Workers Party) seem to be dormant this cycle.

The 4 Far-Right parties have similar platforms: Nativism, aggressive foreign policy, pushing out Western liberal cultural influence, increase in the role of the Emperor

Each of the 4 has their own special niche

新党くにもり (NPC) (New Party Conservative) - their niche seems to be militarization and nuclear weapons
日本第一党 (JFP) (Japan First party) - their niche seems to be anti-DPRK and reducing the influence of Zainichi Koreans in Japan
維新政党・新風 (IPS) (Ishin Party Shimpu) - their niche seems to be restoring the role of the Emperor to the pre-1945 era
参政党 (PP) (Participation party) - their niche seems to be anti-woke anti-Western liberal influence and returning Japanese culture to a pre-1945 period

Frankly, all 4 parties would agree with the niches of all the others so I do not see why these 4 parties would not from an electoral front.   All of them seem insistent on running a large number of candidates.  Any disagreements between them seem like a battle between Judea Peoples Front and the People Front of Judea.  They only dilute their efforts by running separately.  The only theory I can think of is their goal is actually to cut in the LDP and JRP vote so LDP and JRP in the future will incorporate their ideas into their platform.

HRP's platform would pretty much share what these 4 parties would have other than increasing the role of the emperor but it would make no sense for HRP to be part of this Far-Right Front since HRP is always about protest and anti-system than being Far-Right.
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jaichind
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« Reply #151 on: May 15, 2022, 09:26:48 AM »

NNN PR poll (change from Feb)

LDP      44 (+3)
KP          5 (+1)
PNHK      0 (-1)
JRP       10 (-4)
DPP        3 (+1)
CDP        8 (-1)
RS          1 (-1)
SDP        0 (-1)
JCP         2 (-1)

LDP-KP gains at the expense of everyone else, especially JRP.  LDP-KP at 49 is most likely what this poll implies which is about where a solid LDP-KP performance would be.  But CDP JRP vote more evenly split this would have great implications for LDP-KP in the district eletions.
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jaichind
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« Reply #152 on: May 16, 2022, 09:19:51 AM »

PR vote curve.

LDP-KP gaining ground while JRP CDP and JCP losing ground.  DPP also making small gains.
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Logical
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« Reply #153 on: May 17, 2022, 02:23:16 PM »

JX Upper House PR poll
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jaichind
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« Reply #154 on: May 18, 2022, 03:41:24 PM »

https://hochi.news/articles/20220518-OHT1T51259.html

Sportswriter, best-seller writer, and now YouTuber 乙武洋匡(Ototake Hirotada) it seems will run in the Tokyo district.  He was born with no arms or legs and his autobiography was a best seller in Japan and went on to be a successful sportswriter.  In 2016 both LDP and JRP were bidding to get him to be on their PR slate but then it came out that he was having affairs with at least 5 women.  After that, he got divorced and became a political commentator on youtube.



Now that some time has passed since 2016 he has decided to jump into the fray.  He will be able to win some floating vote and hurt LDP CDP and JRP and by implication help KP and JCP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #155 on: May 19, 2022, 04:45:02 AM »

https://hochi.news/articles/20220518-OHT1T51259.html

Sportswriter, best-seller writer, and now YouTuber 乙武洋匡(Ototake Hirotada) it seems will run in the Tokyo district.  He was born with no arms or legs and his autobiography was a best seller in Japan and went on to be a successful sportswriter.  In 2016 both LDP and JRP were bidding to get him to be on their PR slate but then it came out that he was having affairs with at least 5 women.  After that, he got divorced and became a political commentator on youtube.



Now that some time has passed since 2016 he has decided to jump into the fray.  He will be able to win some floating vote and hurt LDP CDP and JRP and by implication help KP and JCP.

This most likely means RS leader 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) will not run in Tokyo.  It is still possible if not likely he will instead run in Kanto urbanized 神奈川(Kanagawa) or 埼玉(Saitama) instead.

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jaichind
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« Reply #156 on: May 20, 2022, 03:55:21 AM »

It seems I was wrong.  There will be a rally tonight in Tokyo where RS leader 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō)  will most likely announce that he will run in Tokyo.
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jaichind
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« Reply #157 on: May 20, 2022, 08:55:59 AM »

It seems I was wrong.  There will be a rally tonight in Tokyo where RS leader 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō)  will most likely announce that he will run in Tokyo.


Confirmed that 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō)  will run in Tokyo with the current RS candidate moved to the RS PR slate.  This seems fairly disrespectful to the existing RS candidate to get shifted around like this and creates the correct, impression that RS is just a one-person party centered around 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō.)  One does not grow a small party to a medium-sized party that way.


山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō)'s entry means that there will be 9 or 10 viable candidates for 6 seats.  In reality, the 4 incumbents (1 LDP, 1 CDP, 1 JCP, and 1 KP) are sure to win with 5-6 candidates fighting for the last 2 seats.

These 6 candidates are LDP, CDP, JRP, RS (Yamamoto), TPFA(backed by DPP), and independent 乙武洋匡(Ototake Hirotada).  It is not clear whether 乙武洋匡(Ototake Hirotada) can make it into this second tier and many are just assuming he can win a bunch of independent votes given his name recognition.   It is hard to say which 2 out of is batch of 6 will make it.  It really depends on where 乙武洋匡(Ototake Hirotada) and 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) will pull their votes from.  It is assumed that 乙武洋匡(Ototake Hirotada)  will eat into the LDP and JRP vote while 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) will eat into the CDP and JCP vote.  To what extent and how much that is true will decide which 2 of the 6 make it.  If I had to guess now I would say LDP and JRP but anything could happen now in such a crowded field.
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jaichind
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« Reply #158 on: May 23, 2022, 05:19:14 AM »

Jiji came out with their estimates on 1- member seats.  It has LDP sweeping all 1- member seats except for 岩手(Iwate) and 沖縄(Okinawa) which would be a repeat of their 2013 election performance.  I agree this is around what the best case scenario is for LDP but I do have a hard time seeing them winning 山形(Yamagata) over the DPP incumbant.
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jaichind
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« Reply #159 on: May 23, 2022, 05:25:30 AM »

Asahi PR vote poll has LDP-KP at 48 and JRP and CDP even.

LDP         42
KP            6
PNHK        1
JRP         11
DPP          4
CDP        10
RS            2
SDP          1
JCP           3



They have some breakdowns for CDP vs JRP

Age in the 30s: JRP 22  CDP    5
Age in the 70s: JRP   8  CDP  14

Osaka:  JRP 35   CDP   3
Tokyo:   JRP   9   CDP  13
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jaichind
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« Reply #160 on: May 23, 2022, 05:34:31 AM »

In terms of Twitter followers, the Tokyo candidates of 乙武洋匡(Ototake Hirotada) (851K), then CDP's Renho(528K), and 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō)(427K) are at the top of all candidates in the Upper House elections.  I wonder how many of them are bots.
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jaichind
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« Reply #161 on: May 24, 2022, 06:02:36 AM »

Kishida cabinet edging upward.  It seems a lot like Abe cabinet approval.  The most likely reason why people approve of the Kishida cabinet is because of "there is no one else."
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jaichind
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« Reply #162 on: May 24, 2022, 10:23:31 AM »
« Edited: May 24, 2022, 10:30:15 AM by jaichind »


These 6 candidates are LDP, CDP, JRP, RS (Yamamoto), TPFA(backed by DPP), and independent 乙武洋匡(Ototake Hirotada).  It is not clear whether 乙武洋匡(Ototake Hirotada) can make it into this second tier and many are just assuming he can win a bunch of independent votes given his name recognition.   It is hard to say which 2 out of is batch of 6 will make it.  It really depends on where 乙武洋匡(Ototake Hirotada) and 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) will pull their votes from.  It is assumed that 乙武洋匡(Ototake Hirotada)  will eat into the LDP and JRP vote while 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) will eat into the CDP and JCP vote.  To what extent and how much that is true will decide which 2 of the 6 make it.  If I had to guess now I would say LDP and JRP but anything could happen now in such a crowded field.

JX did a poll for Tokyo



And the result pretty much matched my guess of the 4 incumbents that will win a seat each with LDP and JRP most likely ahead of the pack of 6 fighting for the last two.

It had LDP CDP JCP and KP incumbents ahead.  It then had it at LDP JRP RS CDP TPFA(backed by DPP) and 乙武洋匡(Ototake Hirotada) with SDP well behind.

One dynamic this poll is picking up which is good news for JRP is that the DPP-backed TPFA candidate is fairly far back in the list.  There are a bunch of Third Pole pro-TPFA JRP-TPFA marginal votes and this poll seems to indicate that they are breaking for JRP which greatly increases the chances of JRP making it while RS and the second CDP candidate are splitting the non-Renho center-left vote.

Most media outfits are calling the Tokyo race a "大混戦" or Big chaotic battle.  The word "混戦" means a multi-cornered battle where it is not clear who is fighting whom and who is ahead which is a very good description on what is going on in Tokyo.
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jaichind
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« Reply #163 on: May 25, 2022, 04:41:25 AM »

Head of LDP communications and past and most likely future LDP Prez contender 河野太郎(Kōno Tarō) announces new LDP party logo going from



to

The same thing but with cat ears
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Not Me, Us
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« Reply #164 on: May 25, 2022, 07:51:05 PM »

Head of LDP communications and past and most likely future LDP Prez contender 河野太郎(Kōno Tarō) announces new LDP party logo going from



to

The same thing but with cat ears


Is that actually the party's new logo, or is it just a temporary publicity thing like when IHOP changed their name to IHOB?
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Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #165 on: May 25, 2022, 08:00:45 PM »

Head of LDP communications and past and most likely future LDP Prez contender 河野太郎(Kōno Tarō) announces new LDP party logo going from
[snip]

Is that actually the party's new logo, or is it just a temporary publicity thing like when IHOP changed their name to IHOB?
Well, if it is, I can assure it will nyat be a problem. Tongue
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jaichind
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« Reply #166 on: May 26, 2022, 04:08:18 AM »



Is that actually the party's new logo, or is it just a temporary publicity thing like when IHOP changed their name to IHOB?

LDP has several logos.  

In theory this is the LDP logo


And this is the party flag


This is in theory the new party letterhead which is the same as the old boring letterhead but now with cat ears.


My post is more about the boring nature of Japanese party logos and even when they do make changes it is only on the margins and does not change the boring nature of these logos
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jaichind
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« Reply #167 on: May 27, 2022, 03:48:57 PM »
« Edited: May 28, 2022, 03:58:45 AM by jaichind »

JX poll/prediction of PR seat

              2019          2022 JX projection
LDP          19                     19
KP              7                      7
PNHK         1                       0
JRP            5                     8-9
DPP           3                       2
CDP           8                     8-9
RS             2                       2
SDP           1                       0
JCP            4                       3

Which has CDP and JRP neck-to-neck and both at the boundary of 8-9 seats.
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jaichind
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« Reply #168 on: May 29, 2022, 04:59:45 AM »

新潟(Niigata) governor election today.   In the end, DPP backed the pro-LDP-KP incumbent while only JCP RS and SDP backed the opposition candidate with CDP being neutral.  Should be a something like LDP-KP-DPP 70/30 win.
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jaichind
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« Reply #169 on: May 29, 2022, 06:06:50 AM »

新潟(Niigata) governor exit poll.  Seems like

LDP-KP-DPP       78
JCP-RS-SDP       22

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jaichind
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« Reply #170 on: May 29, 2022, 10:04:02 AM »

新潟(Niigata) governor all votes counted

LDP-KP-DPP       77.5
JCP-RS-SDP       22.5

Pretty much matched exit polls.  

Exit polls by party support.  It seems the broad anti-LDP independent vote broke for the pro-LDP-KP incumbent.
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jaichind
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« Reply #171 on: May 29, 2022, 10:08:58 AM »
« Edited: May 29, 2022, 07:57:22 PM by jaichind »

Nikkei PR vote poll.  Massive LDP lead (change from April)

LDP     51 (+8)
KP        4  (-1)
PNHK    0  (-1)
JRP       8  (-4)
DPP      2   (--)
CDP      7  (-2)
RS        2  (-1)
SDP      0  (--)
JCP       3  (+1)

LDP getting a large bump from Kishida hosting in G7 summit.

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jaichind
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« Reply #172 on: May 29, 2022, 10:22:10 AM »

2016 Rengo vote.  Sum of all PR votes for Rengo background DP candidates in 2016.  Rengo is strong in old industrial parts of 静岡(Shizuoka) and 愛知(Aichi).   Rengo is also strong in 中国(Chūgoku) and 九州 (Kyushu) where they are in a constant battle there with JCP over control of unions there.
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TimTurner
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« Reply #173 on: May 29, 2022, 05:52:02 PM »

2016 Rengo vote.  Sum of all PR votes for Rengo background DP candidates in 2016.  Rengo is strong in old industrial parts of 静岡(Shizuoka) and 愛知(Aichi).   Rengo is also strong in 中国(Chūgoku) and 九州 (Kyushu) where they are in a constant battle there with JCP over control of unions there.

What explains the purple and deep red parts of Hokkaido?
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Logical
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« Reply #174 on: May 29, 2022, 05:56:22 PM »

2016 Rengo vote.  Sum of all PR votes for Rengo background DP candidates in 2016.  Rengo is strong in old industrial parts of 静岡(Shizuoka) and 愛知(Aichi).   Rengo is also strong in 中国(Chūgoku) and 九州 (Kyushu) where they are in a constant battle there with JCP over control of unions there.

What explains the purple and deep red parts of Hokkaido?
Retirement villages for union members.
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