Japan 2022 Upper House elections July 10
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jaichind
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« Reply #200 on: June 17, 2022, 11:13:00 AM »

JPY crashes to 135 after BOJ did not raise rates to match the USA Fed rate increases.  It seems BOJ judges the domestic economy weak enough not to try to raise rates.  But doing so and creating a weak JPY will increase imported inflation.  The JPM CPI-adjusted currency strength indicator has JPY now at half the relative value it was in 2001.  The LDP is lucky that the election is on July 10 and not in the Fall as the domestic economic scene with respect to inflation will for sure get worse over the next few months.

Kishida is indeed lucky that he will not have to face another major electoral test after this one until 2025. You can weather bad spells of cabinet disapproval as long as the spectre of imminent electoral troubles remains distant as Abe repeatedly proved.

For national politics yes.  But there will be significant local elections in 2023 where most prefecture assemblies will face elections.  For rural prefectures where voting is based on the local LDP clientelist  kingpins I think the LDP-KP alliance will be fine. But imported inflation does build up this could hit the lower middle class in urban areas and they could turn against the LDP.  JRP is more likely than CDP to benefit from this though.
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jaichind
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« Reply #201 on: June 17, 2022, 05:49:57 PM »

% of women candidates by party.

Both CDP and JCP the % is above 50%.  LDP is 23.45%, KP is 14.28%, and JRP is 30.43%.  Ironically Soka Gakkai married women's wing really controlled the KP.  The party that runs the least number of women candidates is the one that is mostly controlled by women.

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jaichind
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« Reply #202 on: June 18, 2022, 04:33:54 AM »
« Edited: June 18, 2022, 04:41:35 AM by jaichind »

https://www.sankei.com/article/20220618-TBFX6COHGBPVDPATXUDCIUW3FE/

Rumors of disunity in the Opposition.  DPP has been getting closer to the LDP since the 2021 Lower House election given Rengo's move to be closer to LDP.  There are rumors of a secret deal between LDP and DPP where the LDP will nominate a weak candidate in 山形(Yamagata) to give DPP a walkover despite a JCP candidate in the mix.  In return, the DPP will de facto back LDP in the tossup prefectures of 青森(Aomori) and 新潟(Niigata) where CDP incumbents are facing a strong LDP challenge.

Of course in 福島(Fukushima), 群馬(Gunma), 三重(Mie), 滋賀(Shiga), and 岡山(Okayama) the CDP-DPP are jointly backing pro-opposition independents against LDP, while in 茨城(Ibaraki) and 広島(Hiroshima) CDP-DPP has formed de facto anti-JCP alliances to back a non-JCP pro-opposition independent to beat back the JCP to win the second seat.  

DPP also has a deal with JRP where JRP backs the pro-DPP independent in 静岡(Shizuoka) against an ex-DP incumbent for the second seat while DPP backs JRP in 京都(Kyoto) to win the second seat against CDP and JCP.

If this rumor is true then the DPP would pretty much have a prefecture-by-prefecture deal with all non-JCP major parties.
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jaichind
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« Reply #203 on: June 18, 2022, 04:35:25 AM »

Kishida cabinet approval ebbs a bit given the recent surge in imported inflation.  Still, it is still well above the bump he got from his perceived hardline positon on the Ukraine crisis back in March
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jaichind
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« Reply #204 on: June 18, 2022, 04:41:20 AM »

Mainichi PR poll (change from May)

LDP     29 (-4)
KP        6  (+2)
PNHK    2  (+1)
JRP      17 (+4)
DPP       5 (+1)
CDP     10 (--)
RS         5 (+2)
SDP       1 (--)
JCP        7 (+2)

Everyone is gaining at the expense of LDP and CDP.  The massive JRP surge seems to be at the expense of LDP.  PNHK at 2% which is enough to win a seat like 2019.
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jaichind
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« Reply #205 on: June 18, 2022, 04:43:17 AM »

It seems that the founder of the defunct YP 渡辺喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) is looking to run for re-election.  After YP fell apart and lost his Lower House seat in 2014,  渡辺喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) joined JRP in 2016 and was elected to the Upper House on the JRP PR slate in 2016.   He fell out with JRP afterward and formed an alliance with PNHK in 2019. 

Now he is looking to run again.  It is clear JRP will not run him.  Possible parties will be DPP, PNHK, or PP.  Out of these 3, PNHK and PP are more likely.  Other DPP PR candidates will view 渡辺喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) trying to run on the DPP slate as trying to steal their slot and push back.  Both PNHK and PP are on the threshold of winning a PR seat and having the 渡辺喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) personal vote could push them over the edge.  If 渡辺喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) runs for PNHK or PP then the party he does run for is the odds-on favorite to win a PR seat in my view.

It seems PNHK has refused to run 渡辺喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) on the PNHK slate since 渡辺喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) insists on still being a member of the recreated rump YP versus merging YP into PNHK.  This pretty much means 渡辺喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) will have to run on PP or else he is out in the cold and his political career will come to an end.
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Logical
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« Reply #206 on: June 18, 2022, 05:27:31 AM »

It seems that the founder of the defunct YP 渡辺喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) is looking to run for re-election.  After YP fell apart and lost his Lower House seat in 2014,  渡辺喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) joined JRP in 2016 and was elected to the Upper House on the JRP PR slate in 2016.   He fell out with JRP afterward and formed an alliance with PNHK in 2019. 

Now he is looking to run again.  It is clear JRP will not run him.  Possible parties will be DPP, PNHK, or PP.  Out of these 3, PNHK and PP are more likely.  Other DPP PR candidates will view 渡辺喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) trying to run on the DPP slate as trying to steal their slot and push back.  Both PNHK and PP are on the threshold of winning a PR seat and having the 渡辺喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) personal vote could push them over the edge.  If 渡辺喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) runs for PNHK or PP then the party he does run for is the odds-on favorite to win a PR seat in my view.

It seems PNHK has refused to run 渡辺喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) on the PNHK slate since 渡辺喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) insists on still being a member of the recreated rump YP versus merging YP into PNHK.  This pretty much means 渡辺喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) will have to run on PP or else he is out in the cold and his political career will come to an end.

He can try running on his own, can't he? He probably won't win but he's got nothing to lose from trying anyway.
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jaichind
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« Reply #207 on: June 18, 2022, 08:14:10 AM »

It seems that the founder of the defunct YP 渡辺喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) is looking to run for re-election.  After YP fell apart and lost his Lower House seat in 2014,  渡辺喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) joined JRP in 2016 and was elected to the Upper House on the JRP PR slate in 2016.   He fell out with JRP afterward and formed an alliance with PNHK in 2019. 

Now he is looking to run again.  It is clear JRP will not run him.  Possible parties will be DPP, PNHK, or PP.  Out of these 3, PNHK and PP are more likely.  Other DPP PR candidates will view 渡辺喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) trying to run on the DPP slate as trying to steal their slot and push back.  Both PNHK and PP are on the threshold of winning a PR seat and having the 渡辺喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) personal vote could push them over the edge.  If 渡辺喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) runs for PNHK or PP then the party he does run for is the odds-on favorite to win a PR seat in my view.

It seems PNHK has refused to run 渡辺喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) on the PNHK slate since 渡辺喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) insists on still being a member of the recreated rump YP versus merging YP into PNHK.  This pretty much means 渡辺喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) will have to run on PP or else he is out in the cold and his political career will come to an end.

He can try running on his own, can't he? He probably won't win but he's got nothing to lose from trying anyway.

I think it is too late for him to get his rump YP on the party-list ballot.  His only hope now is to get on the PP list or some other far-right party list.  It is not clear even if he wants to be on the PP list that PP would have him.  If PP thinks their vote share is around 1%-1.5% then it makes sense to rope him in and convince their PR candidates that they are not going to get elected anyway so might as well let 渡辺喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) come to be on the PR list and with his personal vote get over the ~1.8% threshold to get elected.  If instead PP thinks their vote share is around 1.5%-2.0% then the PP PR candidates will push back on 渡辺喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) coming to be on the list since it is likely PP will win seats and all 渡辺喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) will do is to steal their slot.

As for the other far-right parties, it seems unlikely even with 渡辺喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi)'s personal vote that they can cross the ~1.8% threshold to win a PR seat.  So for 渡辺喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) the only game left in town is PP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #208 on: June 18, 2022, 08:20:46 AM »

Some more JX polls for multi-member districts

4- member 埼玉(Saitama):  LDP KP and CDP ahead in the top tier, pro-DPP independent incumbent, JCP, and JRP fighting for the 4th and last seat, and RS far behind.  What is a surprise here is the JCP is ahead of JRP.



2- member 静岡(Shizuoka): LDP ahead in the top tier, the ex-DP now turned pro-LDP incumbent and pro-DPP incumbent (backed by JRP) fighting for the 2nd seat with JCP far behind. If the ex-DP now turned pro-LDP incumbent wins she will join the LDP.  The CDP vote is critical here and it seems the ex-DP incumbent has some residual pull on the CDP vote despite her going over to a pro-LDP position.



2- member 京都(Kyoto): LDP well ahead, CDP incumbent and JRP (backed by DPP) in the second tier fighting for the 2nd seat with JCP far behind.
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jaichind
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« Reply #209 on: June 18, 2022, 08:34:06 AM »

Mainichi PR poll (change from May)

LDP     29 (-4)
KP        6  (+2)
PNHK    2  (+1)
JRP      17 (+4)
DPP       5 (+1)
CDP     10 (--)
RS         5 (+2)
SDP       1 (--)
JCP        7 (+2)

Everyone is gaining at the expense of LDP and CDP.  The massive JRP surge seems to be at the expense of LDP.  PNHK at 2% which is enough to win a seat like 2019.

The same Mainichi poll shows a fall in approval of the Kishida cabinet over inflation.  It is amazing that inflation is finally becoming an election in Japan, the land of deflation and QE.
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jaichind
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« Reply #210 on: June 19, 2022, 09:17:20 AM »

https://gendai.ismedia.jp/articles/-/96482

It seems the JRP candidate for Toyko is caught in a semi-scandal.  He claims that he lives in Tokyo and that his kids go to school in Tokyo yet he is also currently a member of the Osaka City Council and by Osaka City rules a MLA cannot have permeate residence outside of Osaka City.  I am sure this is some sort of pied--terre setup but for him to acknowledge that will drag up more legal questions (just like people that have pied--terre in NYC) on exactly where his permeate residence is which has implications on where his kids are allowed to go to school etc etc.

For now, he is just dodging the question by saying everything is nice and legal and his kids do go to school in Tokyo as he said on the campaign stump.
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jaichind
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« Reply #211 on: June 20, 2022, 11:47:31 AM »

JX PR poll for 石川(Ishikawa) (with 2021 PR result)

           Poll          2021
LDP    44.1%       44.0%
KP       7.9%         8.7%
PNHK   1.4%         0.5%
PP                        3.0%
JRP      8.4%       14.4%
DPP     2.0%         3.5%
CDP    11.8%      18.4%
RS        3.0%        3.1%
SDP      2.2%        1.9%
JCP       2.5%        4.5%

LDP-KP vote holding up well.  PP and PNHK eating into the JRP vote and even allowing for the undecideds would have a clear lean for CPD and JRP this polls it not a good one for either of them them.
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jaichind
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« Reply #212 on: June 20, 2022, 06:17:50 PM »

NHK will do a poll each week until the election.  3 weeks before the election the NHK poll has Kishida's approval falling.
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jaichind
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« Reply #213 on: June 21, 2022, 11:04:43 AM »

Japan Press Club as usual hosts first leaders debate


Main campaign message by party are also unveiled.

LDP KP and CDP slogans are really bad.  LDP and KP slogans are really vague with no meaning and CDP is just a laundry list of free stuff.  JRP JCP DPP and RS have much more clear slogans.


LDP (Kishida) "Protect Japan and create the future"



CDP "Control prices, higher pensions, food price reduction, consumption tax reduction"



KP "Japan Forward"



JRP "Reform to grow a sustainable Japan"



JCP "Working toward a life without war"



DPP "Raise salary (aggressive fiscal policy)"



RS "Abolish the consumption tax"



SDP "Live in peace, prioritize living"



PNHK "No NHK fees for pensioners"
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Logical
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« Reply #214 on: June 21, 2022, 02:45:15 PM »
« Edited: June 27, 2022, 07:04:52 AM by Logical »

The redistricting plan for the Lower House based on the 2020 census have been submitted to the Prime Minister. Changes have been made to 140 constituencies across 25 prefectures. 10 seats in rural prefectures will be abolished for 10 seats in swingy urban ones.


Changes in Tokyo

Kanagawa

Saitama

Chiba

Aichi


Now for the prefectures that lost seats

Miyagi

Fukushima

Niigata

Shiga

Wakayama

Okayama

Hiroshima

Yamaguchi

Ehime

Nagasaki


There are also minor boundary changes in 10 other prefectures.
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jaichind
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« Reply #215 on: June 21, 2022, 05:29:10 PM »

https://www.asahi.com/articles/ASQ6P4JMXQ6PUTIL00P.html

Founder of defunct YP 渡辺喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) retires from politics.  He started this current wave of "Third Pole" parties in 2008 by creating YP as a LDP splinter.

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jaichind
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« Reply #216 on: June 21, 2022, 05:48:38 PM »

A couple of analysts have LDP at 60 and 59 seats respectively out of 125 up for grabs.  Both have CDP and JRP neck-to-neck on the PR section.
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jaichind
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« Reply #217 on: June 21, 2022, 06:23:23 PM »

The rapid fall of the JPY has Japanese TV shocked at how expensive a bagel and coffee are in NYC


Japan these days pretty much has the lowest prices in the developed world.
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Logical
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« Reply #218 on: June 22, 2022, 06:52:59 AM »
« Edited: June 22, 2022, 06:58:03 AM by Logical »

There will be 367 candidates for 75 district seats and 178 candidates for PR seats.



In addition to the 4 minor far right parties active this cycle there is also a new ごぼうの党 (Gobo Party). The list of candidates is filled with YouTubers, artists, singers and sportsmen. They appear to target young disillusioned voters. Smells like a publicity ploy to me though.

Another interesting thing is how there will be an NHK party and PP candidate in every single district. This is bad news for LDP because the far right parties will be able to absorb 3-5% of the LDP vote in critical single member districts.
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jaichind
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« Reply #219 on: June 22, 2022, 08:55:39 AM »
« Edited: June 22, 2022, 02:56:38 PM by jaichind »

My current projection

I also have the alternative winner for competitive and tossups seats

My projection is fairly negative for LDP and JRP with CDP winning most tossups.  My sense is the most recent problem of inflation will most likely work in favor of the CDP and that lower turnout is also likely hit LDP and JRP voters as well.

                                               Prediction
北海道Hokkaido         3              LDP CDP CDP (tossup) (LDP)
青森   Aomori             1             CDP (competitive) (LDP)                              
岩手   Iwate               1             CDP (competitive)  (LDP)
宮城   Miyagi              1             CDP (tossup) (LDP)    
秋田   Akita                1             LDP                                  
山形   Yamagata         1             DPP                      
福島   Fukushima       1              OPPN (tossup) (LDP)                    
茨城   Ibaraki             2             LDP OPPN                          
栃木   Tochigi             1             LDP                            
群馬   Gunma            1              LDP                                  
埼玉   Saitama           4             LDP CDP KP OPPN                    
千葉   Chiba               3             LDP CDP LDP                    
神奈川Kanagawa        5              LDP LDP KP JRP CDP (competitive between JRP and CDP for 4th)          
山梨   Yamanashi       1              CDP (tossup) (LDP)      
東京   Tokyo              6              LDP CDP KP JCP LDP RS (tossup) (JRP)    
新潟   Niigata             1             CDP (tossup) (LDP)            
富山   Toyama            1             LDP                                  
石川   Ishikawa           1             LDP                                  
福井   Fukui                1             LDP (competitive) (OPPN)                                
長野   Nagano             1             CDP                              
岐阜   Gifu                  1             LDP                                  
静岡   Shizuoka           2             LDP ex-DP likely pro-LDP (compeititve) (OPPN)                          
愛知   Aichi                 4             LDP CDP KP DPP (compeititive) (JRP)                
三重   Mie                   1             LDP                              
滋賀   Shiga                1             LDP  
京都   Kyoto                2             LDP CDP (tossup) (JRP)    
大阪   Osaka               4             JRP KP LDP JRP            
兵庫   Hyōgo               3             JRP LDP KP
奈良   Nara                 1             LDP                                  
和歌山Wakayama        1              LDP                                  
鳥取 Tottori/                
島根   Shimane           1             LDP                                
岡山   Okayama          1             LDP (comptititve) (OPPN)        
広島   Hiroshima         2             LDP OPPN
山口   Yamaguchi        1             LDP                                  
徳島   Tokushima/  
高知   Kōchi                1             LDP                                  
香川   Kagawa            1             LDP                                  
愛媛   Ehime              1             LDP                                  
福岡   Fukuoka           3             LDP CDP KP                      
佐賀   Saga                1             LDP                                  
長崎   Nagasaki           1             LDP                                
熊本   Kumamoto        1             LDP                                
大分   Ōita                  1            DPP (tossup) (LDP)            
宮崎   Miyazaki           1             LDP                                  
鹿児島Kagoshima       1             LDP                                
沖縄   Okinawa           1            OPPN (competitive) (LDP)  
 
This along with PR section gives us

1 seat districts LDP-opposition 22-10
                                                            
                     PR              PR vote share          District              Total
LDP                18                    33.5%               38                     56
KP                   7                     13.0%                7                     14
PP                   0                       1.5%                0                       0
PNHK               0                      1.5%                 0                      0
JRP                  8                    15.0%                4                      12
DPP                  3                      5.5%                3                       6
CDP                  8                    15.5%              15                     23
SDP                 0                       1.5%               0                       0
RS                   2                      4.0%                1                       3
JCP                  4                      7.5%               1                        5
OPPN                                                              5                        5
pro-LDP                                                          1                        1

On the PR slate, it is totally possible that DPP or JCP could lose a seat to SDP or PP.

In 静岡(Shizuoka) it is a DPP-backed OPPN incumbent (via by-election) and also supported by JRP vs an ex-DP and likely pro-LDP incumbent for the second seat.  The ex-DP incumbent claims that she will not join LDP if she wins but most likely that is a ruse to rope in the CDP vote.
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jaichind
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« Reply #220 on: June 22, 2022, 02:46:38 PM »

A campaign sign for LDP PR candidates.  On the PR slate, you can vote for LDP or one of the LDP PR candidates.  The higher vote winners are the winners of the seats that accrue to LDP.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #221 on: June 22, 2022, 03:09:49 PM »

The rapid fall of the JPY has Japanese TV shocked at how expensive a bagel and coffee are in NYC


Japan these days pretty much has the lowest prices in the developed world.

I listened to an Asahi podcast on this just the other day that had the same tone. Japanese people seem to think Tokyo is an expensive city, but I guess that's also a global misconception as most Americans would probably say the same.
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jaichind
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« Reply #222 on: June 22, 2022, 05:10:06 PM »


I listened to an Asahi podcast on this just the other day that had the same tone. Japanese people seem to think Tokyo is an expensive city, but I guess that's also a global misconception as most Americans would probably say the same.

This has to do with the fact that JPY surged from around 250 to 125 after the 1985 Plaza Accord and became known in the world for high prices.  So in the Japanese mind JPY at 125 is a "strong Yen."  JPY then bounce around 100 for a couple of decades after the busting of the bubble so in the mind of the Japanese even at 135 it is still the "strong Yen."  What they miss is the differences in rates of inflation in Japan relative to other economies.  JPM computes a CPI-adjusted index of each major currency against the USD.   That index has JPY at less than half the relative value than in 1994. This is the power of decades of annual compounding of differences in CPI between Japan and USA.
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jaichind
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« Reply #223 on: June 23, 2022, 05:31:26 AM »

There will be 367 candidates for 75 district seats and 178 candidates for PR seats.



In addition to the 4 minor far right parties active this cycle there is also a new ごぼうの党 (Gobo Party). The list of candidates is filled with YouTubers, artists, singers and sportsmen. They appear to target young disillusioned voters. Smells like a publicity ploy to me though.

Another interesting thing is how there will be an NHK party and PP candidate in every single district. This is bad news for LDP because the far right parties will be able to absorb 3-5% of the LDP vote in critical single member districts.

The ごぼうの党 (Gobo Party) campaign seems to have the slogan "Truth Love Smile"



As for far-right parties, yes PP is running everywhere and PNHK is running multiple candidates in the larger prefectures.  The other far-right parties are also running a bunch of candidates in the larger prefectures.  Not sure what they are up to other than to sink LDP and JRP and in fact each other.
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jaichind
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« Reply #224 on: June 23, 2022, 06:02:22 AM »

Campaign signs for 神奈川(Kanagawa).  Signs for the 2 LDP candidates, 2 CDP candidates, KP, JRP, JCP, DPP, SDP, PNHK, and PP.  Pretty much every significant party has a candidate and an ad up.
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