Japan 2022 Upper House elections July 10
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
November 28, 2022, 10:14:15 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  Japan 2022 Upper House elections July 10
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 3 4 [5] 6 7 8 9 10 ... 33
Author Topic: Japan 2022 Upper House elections July 10  (Read 22256 times)
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,867
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #100 on: April 09, 2022, 05:31:53 AM »
« edited: April 09, 2022, 05:42:57 AM by jaichind »

I know you've done so before but please give us a quick breakdown on the factions.

LDP factions have their origins in the merger of the more Conservative and larger LP and the more Liberal and smaller DP in 1955.  LP and DP were rivals for the Center-Right vote and after the merger, their rivalry just continued as factions.

岸田(Kishida) faction - 45 MPs - Came from LP, the oldest of LDP factions and the faction of current PM

谷垣(Tanigaki) faction - 26 MPs - led by Prez of LDP in 2009-2012 and a splinter of 岸田(Kishida) faction

二階(Nikai) faction - 43 MPs - came from DP and was founded by the DP leader 鳩山(Hatoyama)- always considered non-mainstream given its DP background.  Historically known as the pro-PRC faction.  When LDP needs to do deals with the PRC they always send the 二階(Nikai) faction to work things out with the PRC.

森山(Moriyama) faction - 7 MPs - 二階(Nikai) faction splinter - used to be led by 石原伸晃(Ishihara Nobuteru) son of the famous governor of Tokyo

安倍(Abe) faction - 94 MPs - came from LP and is now the largest and most right-wing/conservative faction led by former PM Abe

茂木(Motegi) faction - 54 MPs - used to be led by 竹下亘(Takesh**ta Wataru) brother of LDP PM Takesh**ta if the early 1990s.  This is the old powerful Tanaka faction that has an LP background.  Used to dominate LDP in the 1970s to 1990s but Ozawa split the faction and led it outside of LDP.  You can argue that CDP/DPP is merely a Tanaka faction splinter.  Since the Ozawa split this faction has gone into decline and slowly became non-mainstream.  

麻生(Aso) faction - 49 MPs - led by former PM and DPM Aso.  Founded by 河野洋平(Kōno Yōhei) who had a 二階(Nikai) faction background before forming an LDP splinter NLC in 1976-1986.  When he rejoined LDP he formed his own faction.  His son 河野太郎(Kōno Tarō) who is a member of this faction ran for leadership for LDP last year (as well as in 2009) with both ending in defeat.  This faction was not that powerful but once leadership moved to Aso it became much more powerful under Aso's leadership.

石破(Ishiba) - 10 MPs - a new faction led by 石破 茂(Ishiba Shigeru) mainly as a vehicle to take on Abe and his faction

菅(Suga) group - 25 MP - In theory this is not a faction but during former PM 菅義偉(Suga Yoshihide) long reign as PM Abe's Chief Cabinet Secretary he gathered a bunch of non-aligned LDP MP into a bloc that is loyal to Suga so this can be considered a faction.


All things equal the 安倍(Abe) faction, 麻生(Aso) faction, and 岸田(Kishida) faction is considered mainstream, and others non-mainstream.  二階(Nikai) faction is non-mainstream due to the DP background while 茂木(Motegi) faction is non-mainstream due to the stain of the Ozawa split/defection of 1993.  Also, 茂木(Motegi) faction and 安倍(Abe) faction were ancient rivals so with the 安倍(Abe) faction being mainstream by definition 茂木(Motegi) is considered non-mainstream.

二階(Nikai) faction has always had ambitions to break out of its non-mainstream status and become the largest faction ergo this faction had spent a lot of time trying to recruit non-LDP politicians to run as pro-LDP independents hoping if they win they will join 二階(Nikai) faction.  This makes the 二階(Nikai) faction extra unpopular since these 二階(Nikai) faction backed pro-LDP independents running sometimes will hurt the electoral prospects of the official LDP candidate from other factions.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,867
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #101 on: April 09, 2022, 08:59:29 AM »

https://www.news-postseven.com/archives/20220409_1743051.html?DETAIL

It seems Abe backed candidate for the 2021 LDP Prez race 高市早苗(Takaichi Sanae) is having trouble rejoining the 安倍(Abe) faction that she quit in 2011 to back Abe over the faction leader that wanted to run for the 2012 LDP Prez race.    What is interesting is her main obstacle seems to be Abe.  Since 2021 it seems the Abe-Takaichi relationship has taken a dive.   Abe continues to view her as a chess piece to be deployed by Abe the puppetmaster when necessary while she increasingly views herself as an emerging leader of the LDP Far Right in her own right.

This just shows Abe was always just using Takaichi to block Kono last year in the 2021 LDP race and in the meantime Takaichi has become too big for Abe to control if she were to reenter the Abe faction.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,867
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #102 on: April 10, 2022, 06:39:00 AM »

京都(Kyoto) governor election exit poll

Anti-JCP grand alliance incumbent       68%
JCP                                                   32%


JCP is very strong in 京都(Kyoto)  and controlled its governorship until 1978.  Starting in 1978 there has been a tradition of all non-JCP parties coming together to support a joint candidate.  This anti-JCP front has won every governor race ever since.

Just to give a sense of the power of incumbency in 2018 the race was an open race and the result was
Anti-JCP grand alliance                       56%
JCP                                                   44%

But in 2014 the anti-JCP grand alliance candidate was an incumbent and the result was
Anti-JCP grand alliance incumbent       69%
JCP                                                   31%

In 京都(Kyoto) governor elections it seems incumbancy adds around 12%-13% to your vote share.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,867
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #103 on: April 10, 2022, 10:25:56 AM »

京都(Kyoto) governor election final results

Anti-JCP grand alliance incumbent       66.8%
JCP                                                   33.2%
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,867
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #104 on: April 11, 2022, 05:27:24 AM »

Even as the candidate list in 神奈川(Kanagawa) is moving in a disastrous direction for the Center-Left where CDP faces a total wipeout in a 5- member (just for this time) district, the development of the candidate list in 6- member 東京(Tokyo) is moving in a pro-CDP direction.  The LDP and CDP will both nominate two candidates, while KP and JCP will have a candidate each.  A LDP rebel, TPFA, JRP and RS candidate will also run.  CDP has superstar and former DP leader 蓮舫(Renho) as one of its candidates and she is expected to draw in votes from across the spectrum.  The LDP KP and JCP incumbent are also expected to make it.  So it is the battle of the rest for the last 2 seats.  On paper, the second LDP candidate should have the edge here but with a TPFA LDP rebel and JRP all in the fray to battle over the Center-Right vote it seems harder and harder to keep out the second CDP candidate from winning one of the last two seats.  In theory, RS could cut into the CDP vote but the candidate quality of the RS candidate does not seem that strong.  From the CDP point of view, the TPFA candidate will eat into the DPP vote which CDP had hoped to get but the same TPFA candidate will eat more into the JRP and LDP vote and most likely be a net positive for CDP as long as the RS candidate vote is under control which it seems.

So earlier this year it seems that 6- member 東京(Tokyo) district was going to be split Right-Left 4-2 just like in 2019 but now seems more likely it will be split Right-Left 3-3 like in 2016.  The TPFA JRP and the LDP rebel all insisting on getting in will likely split the LDP-JRP vote base letting in the second CDP candidate.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,867
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #105 on: April 12, 2022, 04:28:55 AM »

In 宮城(Miyagi) long time DPJ and DPP incumbent MP 桜井充(Sakurai Mitsuru) has been selected as the LDP candidate.  桜井充(Sakurai Mitsuru)  has won here since 1998 as the DPJ candidate and last won in 2016 as the united opposition candidate against the LDP and has since joined DPP.  After the mainstream DPP decided to merge with CDP in 2020 (with a rump DPP remaining and is the current DPP) 桜井充(Sakurai Mitsuru) quit DPP and have since drifted over to LDP.  The local LDP chapter is very hostile to 桜井充(Sakurai Mitsuru) and came up with their own candidate.  The national LDP came up with a compromise of using a poll to see if 桜井充(Sakurai Mitsuru) or the local 宮城(Miyagi) LDP chapter candidate (a LDP member of the prefecture assembly) is more popular.  The poll had 桜井充(Sakurai Mitsuru) as more popular in the prefecture and is selected as the LDP candidate.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,867
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #106 on: April 13, 2022, 07:27:07 AM »

In 2- member 京都(Kyoto) JRP officially nominates a candidate.  So it will be LDP CDP JCP and JRP fighting for 2 seats.  Historically LDP always wins a seat with CDP and JCP fighting for the second seat.  LDP-KP voters tend to tactically vote for CDP to beat JCP although incumbency counts for a lot.  In 2013 JCP beat out DPJ for the second seat due to JRP and YP splitting enough of the LDP-KP anti-JCP tactical vote while in 2016 the DP incumbent clearly beat out JCP to win the second seat.  In 2019 the JCP incumbent narrowly beat out the CDP candidate due to incumbency advantage and the socially conservative LDP-KP tactical voter actually preferred JCP over the LGBT activist CDP candidate (sort of like GOP voters most likely prefer the old Left Sanders over the woke Harris).  

In 2022 the JRP is back to run a candidate here and the LDP-KP voter (as well as the DPP voter) is put into a dilemma: If they vote for JRP then they potentially split the vote between CDP and JRP to let in JCP. 
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,867
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #107 on: April 13, 2022, 07:59:19 AM »

In 宮城(Miyagi) long time DPJ and DPP incumbent MP 桜井充(Sakurai Mitsuru) has been selected as the LDP candidate.  桜井充(Sakurai Mitsuru)  has won here since 1998 as the DPJ candidate and last won in 2016 as the united opposition candidate against the LDP and has since joined DPP.  After the mainstream DPP decided to merge with CDP in 2020 (with a rump DPP remaining and is the current DPP) 桜井充(Sakurai Mitsuru) quit DPP and have since drifted over to LDP.  The local LDP chapter is very hostile to 桜井充(Sakurai Mitsuru) and came up with their own candidate.  The national LDP came up with a compromise of using a poll to see if 桜井充(Sakurai Mitsuru) or the local 宮城(Miyagi) LDP chapter candidate (a LDP member of the prefecture assembly) is more popular.  The poll had 桜井充(Sakurai Mitsuru) as more popular in the prefecture and is selected as the LDP candidate.

It seems LDP's problems in 宮城(Miyagi)  are not over.  Now that the national LDP used a poll to get the prefecture LDP to back down and support the DPJ/DPP defector 桜井充(Sakurai Mitsuru) another LDP rebellion emerges.  It seems LDP's 中野正志(Nakano Masashi) might run as an independent.  中野正志(Nakano Masashi) used to be a LDP Lower House MP back in the 2000s but defected to the JRP in 2012 when he was not renominated for the seat he lost in 2009.  He then became a JRP Upper House PR MP and after JRP split joined the far-right PJK and actually became the leader of PJK in 2017-2018 before merging PJK into the LDP in 2018.  He tried to run for re-election in 2019 either on the district or PR slate but was not able to get a ticket from the LDP.  Now that the LDP will go with DPJ/DPP defector 桜井充(Sakurai Mitsuru) he sees a chance to come in as an indpendent and corner the anti-桜井充(Sakurai Mitsuru) LDP vote.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,867
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #108 on: April 14, 2022, 07:10:56 AM »

Jiji PR poll

LDP   37.4%
KP      3.8%
PNHK  0.5%
JRP     8.6%
DPP    2.1%
CDP    7.0%
RS      1.7%
SDP    0.2%
JCP     2.4%

Disastrous numbers for a PR poll for non-LDP parties especially CDP.  If this was a party support poll I would view this as pretty standard but as a PR poll, this is very bad, even for JRP which is ahead of CDP.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,867
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #109 on: April 14, 2022, 07:32:13 AM »

List of PR candidates so far



Different parties have different types of candidates.  CDP and DPP have candidates that represent different unions with CDP having more service/educational unions candidates while DPP has more industrial union candidates. 

LDP has candidates that represent different economic sectors with a heavy focus on the medical profession.  There are candidates that represent nurses, dentists, general practitioners, psychologists, emergency care, pharmacists etc etc.  There are also candidates that represent the military, hunters, postal service, construction, farmers etc etc.

JCP KP JRP SDP RS all have candidates that represent different regions.

Minor parties

PNHK - PNHK seems to have created a bunch of satellite proxy parties so their candidates are from these different proxy parties.  Mostly act as a protest party.
HRP - Based on Happy Science cult - policy position is social and foreign policy extreme right position - de facto protest party as they mostly push their anti-system position versus their extreme right position
JFP - Mostly de facto anti-Korean extreme right party
参政党 (SSP) - very new policy position not clear.  Seems mostly far-right with anti-PRC pro-animal rights and anti-JRP (not clear why) positions
新党くにもり (NPC) - based on the political group 頑張れ日本 (Good Luck Japan).  Seems to be a far-right LDP splinter mostly about the anti-Korean position domestically and anti-PRC position internationally.

The main problem for LDP and JRP is that with all these far-right minor parties running some disgruntled LDP voters will vote for these minor parties.  The good news for them is these same voters are more likely to vote for LDP or JRP in the district seats.  The counter to that conjecture of course is they might end up voting PNHK in the district seats.  Still many of the people that will vote for these far-right minor parties most likely will not vote and from the LDP and JRP point of view they rather these voters come out to vote where LDP and JRP might get their vote versus just staying home.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,867
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #110 on: April 15, 2022, 06:28:30 AM »

RS leader and current Lower House PR MP 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) it seems will run in the 2022 Upper House elections, and resign his Lower House seat I assume.  It seems he can either run as a PR candidate (like in 2019) or run in 東京(Tokyo) or 大阪(Osaka) district seats.  I suspect he will run as a PR candidate since in both 東京(Tokyo) and 大阪(Osaka) CDP and JCP will not back down and 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) most likely will not be elected.

Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,867
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #111 on: April 16, 2022, 02:07:52 PM »

RS leader and Lower House MP 山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō) has resigned his Lower House seat which means he is certain to run in the Upper House elections.

In the meantime, PNHK also put someone with exactly the same name "山本太郎(Yamamoto Tarō)" on their PR list.   PNHK has a track record of troll moves like this which usually does not seem to generate them any votes.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,867
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #112 on: April 17, 2022, 02:51:24 PM »

https://nordot.app/888389711478226944

LDP election committee head came up with the goal of 19-21 PR seats for the upcoming Upper House elections.  LDP won 19 out of 48 in 2016 and now there are 50 PR seats 20 would be a reasonable target.  But with the JRP surge, it seems LDP keeping 19 PR seats could be difficult.  LDP must think that the JRP surge is coming at the expense of the opposition and with higher turnout KP and JCP seat count will suffer and for LDP to gain from.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,867
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #113 on: April 17, 2022, 04:39:20 PM »

ANN PR poll

LDP    33.9 (-1.2)
KP       3.3 (-0.2)
JRP      7.3 (+0.6)
DPP     1.6 (-0.8 )
CDP     9.2 (+0.7)
RS       0.9 (-0.1)
SDP     0.7 (+0.2)
JCP      4.8 (-0.4)

CDP and JRP gain some ground.  Still a very good poll for LDP.  CDP should be polling in the teens at this stage and high teens/low twenties as we get close to the election.   If JRP wants to make a big breakthrough this year they should be polling in the low teens at this stage.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,867
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #114 on: April 19, 2022, 01:40:44 PM »

Latest JX PR poll

LDP  33.3(+2.1)
KP     5.6(+0.2)
PNHK 1.1(+0.3)
JRP   13.7(-4.1)
DPP   2.8(+0.5)
CDP  15.5(-3.6)
RS     1.8(+0.6)
SDP   1.2(+0.4)
JCP    7.9(+1.9)



CDP and JRP loses ground to everyone else
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,867
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #115 on: April 20, 2022, 04:26:45 AM »

It seems JRP and DPP formed a tactical deal for JRP not to run a candidate in 2- member 静岡(Shizuoka) so the pro-DPP incumbent (that won in a by-election last year) can win 1 out of the 2 seats (the LDP will win the other) over JCP and another opposition candidate (ex-DP turned rebel incumbent).  In return, DPP will not run a candidate in 2- member 京都(Kyoto) and support JRP in its 3-way CDP vs JCP vs JRP battle for the second seat (the first seat will be won by LDP.)

This is the first real formal deal between DPP and JRP.  DPP will most likely have some deals with CDP in other prefectures.



Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,867
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #116 on: April 20, 2022, 04:34:02 AM »

Chart on DPJ splinters.

Not shown on the chart was that PLP (later called LP) split from DPJ in 2012 and in 2016 the non-Osaka stream of JIP (mostly ex-DPJ and ex-YP defectors to JRP) merged with DPJ to form DP.  Also, proto-RS joined LP in 2015.

On the chart, it shows how DP split into CDP and HP in 2017 with part of TPFA also joining HP.  Rump HP continued but mostly died.  The majority bloc of HP split to form DPP with LP joining it.  Then in 2019 LP joined DPP with RS splitting out from LP as it refused to join DPP.  The majority faction of DPP merged into CDP in 2020 but the minority faction continued.

Logged
Logical
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 904


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #117 on: April 23, 2022, 12:03:40 AM »

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCqzntJdO-f5__MLhIv8xbWQ/videos
Fun channel for old Japanese election night programs.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,867
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #118 on: April 23, 2022, 06:48:33 AM »

Mainichi poll on PR vote

LDP    32(+1)
KP        3(+1)
PNHK    1(--)
JRP     15(+1)
DPP      4(-1)
CDP      8(-4)
RS        3(--)
SDP      1(+1)
JCP       5(+1)

Another disastrous poll result for CDP. 

JX polls seem to take into account that the vast majority of undecided/independents lean heavily against LDP with MSM polls tend not to take that into account.  Most MSM polls have similar results for all parties except for JRP where they range from something like 7% to 15%.  I suspect there is a significant number of LDP-JRP marginal voters that report their voting intentions differently to MSM polls.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,867
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #119 on: April 23, 2022, 06:50:08 AM »

Kishida cabinet approval trending slowing up despite COVID-19 surge over the last few months.  The geopolitical crisis should have played a role in this.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,867
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #120 on: April 23, 2022, 09:51:37 AM »

The by-election for the 石川(Ishikawa) Upper House seat is tomorrow.  Sitting LDP MP resigned earlier this year to run unsuccessfully for governor.  The race will be LDP vs CDP vs JCP vs PNHK.  Easy LDP victory is expected but vote share will be important.  If the LDP candidate can be held to below a high 50s vote share then it can be viewed as a victory for the opposition.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,867
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #121 on: April 24, 2022, 06:13:26 AM »

The by-election for the 石川(Ishikawa) Upper House seat is tomorrow.  Sitting LDP MP resigned earlier this year to run unsuccessfully for governor.  The race will be LDP vs CDP vs JCP vs PNHK.  Easy LDP victory is expected but vote share will be important.  If the LDP candidate can be held to below a high 50s vote share then it can be viewed as a victory for the opposition.


NHK exit poll has a massive LDP landslide



I know I said that a reasonable baseline for LDP would be 58%-59% of the vote.  Then I realized that the LDP candidate is an incumbent PR candidate with deep roots in the prefecture.   Given that a reasonable LDP baseline would be something like 63%-64%.  The exit polls have the LDP candidate at around 69%.  Significant LDP overperformance and a very good sign for LDP going into the Summer Upper House elections.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,867
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #122 on: April 24, 2022, 07:53:54 AM »

石川(Ishikawa) Upper House by-election exit poll has a wapping 60% of the electorate as supporters of LDP.  JRP at 4% is very low given JRP's hope to surge here and displace CDP as the main opposition party to LDP.  I suspect a lot of LDP supporters are really LDP-JRP marginal voters.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,867
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #123 on: April 24, 2022, 08:27:02 AM »

石川(Ishikawa) Upper House by-election (82% of the vote counted)

LDP      67.7%  (backed by KP)
CDP      21.6%  (backed by SDP)
JCP         7.1%
PNHK      3.5%

Mostly matching exit polls.
Logged
jaichind
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,867
United States


Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #124 on: April 24, 2022, 08:53:36 AM »

石川(Ishikawa) Upper House by-election all counted

LDP      68.4%  (backed by KP)
CDP      21.6%  (backed by SDP)
JCP         6.6%
PNHK      3.4%

Big LDP victory by overperforming what one would expect.  What is worse for CDP is that LDP won 68.4% at the same time PNHK won 3.4%.
Logged
Pages: 1 2 3 4 [5] 6 7 8 9 10 ... 33  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.062 seconds with 12 queries.