Japan 2022 Upper House elections July 10
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Author Topic: Japan 2022 Upper House elections July 10  (Read 22299 times)
jaichind
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« Reply #275 on: June 27, 2022, 05:49:19 AM »

It seems there is a heat wave coming to Japan soon.  LDP better hope there are no power blackouts.  If there are blackouts that might impact LDP at least on the margins.


Heatwave incoming.  The government is already asking people to conserve power and already is warning of possible blackouts.
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jaichind
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« Reply #276 on: June 27, 2022, 06:01:51 AM »

https://www.mbs.jp/news/kansainews/20220627/GE00044470.shtml

MBS survey of 京都(Kyoto) has a near 3-way tie of CDP LDP JRP in that sequence with JCP slightly behind.  For CDP to be slightly ahead of LDP and JRP and for JCP to be close means both CDP and JCP are outperforming and would imply that the CDP incumbent has been effective at eating into the LDP KP and DPP votes.
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jaichind
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« Reply #277 on: June 27, 2022, 06:11:19 AM »
« Edited: June 27, 2022, 06:18:28 AM by jaichind »

CDP and other opposition parties are running against the "Kishida inflation" in their stump speeches.   Is Kishida going to respond by talking about a "Putin price hike?"  Given how much of Japan's current rise in inflation is import driven Kishida is much more justified in making that claim than Biden.
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jaichind
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« Reply #278 on: June 27, 2022, 06:15:50 AM »

New NHK poll. Kishida government approval continues to decline as inflation starts to bite. Economic issues, not constitutional change, is the first thing on voter's mind for this election. Only 5% of voters have constitutional issues as their priority, compared to 43% on the economy and 16% on social security.

Party ID


LDP support in this poll fell to 35.6 as opposed to 38.6 in the last 2021 pre-election poll.  The good news for LDP is that CDP and JRP support are that not so hot either (at this stage of the election I would expect one of the two if not both to get close to 10%.)  I can for sure see how parties like PP PNHK and SDP which each has a small core set of voters can eat up some disaffected voters to get above the ~1.8% PR vote threshold to get a seat.
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jaichind
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« Reply #279 on: June 27, 2022, 06:21:04 AM »

Latest Kishida cabinet approval curve.  It is not bad especially given how low disapproval is and is about where it was right before the 2021 election.   The momentum is clearly against the Kishida cabinet and it will get worse over the coming weeks.  The July 10th election cannot come fast enough for LDP.


LDP party support also falling
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Logical
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« Reply #280 on: June 27, 2022, 06:44:27 AM »
« Edited: June 27, 2022, 07:07:50 AM by Logical »

Mainichi single member district poll. LDP clearly leads in 24, to close to call in 5, and opposition leads in 3.




OPPO leads: Aomori, Iwate and Yamagata
Too close to call: Niigata, Yamanashi, Nagano, Oita, Okinawa
LDP leads: everything else
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jaichind
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« Reply #281 on: June 27, 2022, 12:07:31 PM »

Mainichi single member district poll. LDP clearly leads in 24, to close to call in 5, and opposition leads in 3.
OPPO leads: Aomori, Iwate and Yamagata
Too close to call: Niigata, Yamanashi, Nagano, Oita, Okinawa
LDP leads: everything else

The good news for the opposition is that all 5 tossups have opposition incumbents.  With the momentum going against the LDP I would say the LDP is likely to lose most if not all of the tossups.  I also suspect there will be a surprise 1- member district LDP loss on election night.  Using the incumbency advantage conjecture this surprise is most likely to be an open seat which would mean it could be 福島Fukushima),  三重(Mie), or 長崎(Nagasaki).  The LDP has sold prefecture assembly-level candidates in all of them but going to prefecture lean 福島(Fukushima) is the most likely one to be that surprise.


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jaichind
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« Reply #282 on: June 27, 2022, 12:10:42 PM »

Sankei has an even more harsh assessment of 1- member districts than Mainichi where they put 山形   (Yamagata) in the tossup column and 大分(Ōita) in the lean LDP column.  This is significant since as a right-wing outfit Sankei tend to come out with LDP unfriendly assessements
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jaichind
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« Reply #283 on: June 27, 2022, 12:16:13 PM »

Sankei assessment

LDP     60-68
KP       10-14
PP          0-1
PNHK     0-1
JRP     11-14
DPP      2-4
CDP    17-24
RS        1-2
SDP      0-1
JCP       5-7
Ind       4-4 (most likely 3 anti-LDP 1 pro-LDP)

If we accept that KP is 14 seats LDP JCP and JRP will be at the lower end of their range this is fairly positive on LDP and JCP and fairly negative for RS and somewhat negative for SDP PP PNHK since they do not see them winning a PR seat as a lock.  Their assessment for CDP and DPP is on the lower side.
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jaichind
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« Reply #284 on: June 28, 2022, 05:23:28 AM »

In conservative and LDP stronghold 富山(Toyama) Mainichi has JRP ahead of CDP (not a surprise) but it also has PP ahead of JCP.  Amazing.  The mainstream populist Right and extreme populist Right has overtaken the mainstream left and JCP as the main opposition to LDP in this prefecture.
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kaoras
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« Reply #285 on: June 28, 2022, 08:38:11 AM »

In conservative and LDP stronghold 富山(Toyama) Mainichi has JRP ahead of CDP (not a surprise) but it also has PP ahead of JCP.  Amazing.  The mainstream populist Right and extreme populist Right has overtaken the mainstream left and JCP as the main opposition to LDP in this prefecture.


Hmm, I see JCP in fourth in that image.
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jaichind
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« Reply #286 on: June 28, 2022, 08:46:19 AM »

In conservative and LDP stronghold 富山(Toyama) Mainichi has JRP ahead of CDP (not a surprise) but it also has PP ahead of JCP.  Amazing.  The mainstream populist Right and extreme populist Right has overtaken the mainstream left and JCP as the main opposition to LDP in this prefecture.


Hmm, I see JCP in fourth in that image.

Look at the right column which is Mainichi
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jaichind
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« Reply #287 on: June 28, 2022, 09:02:31 AM »

Latest JX PR poll.  Shift away from LDP toward CDP and JCP (change from prev poll)
 
LDP     31.8(-4.3)
KP        8.6(+2.3)
PP        1.2(+0.5)
HRP      0.5(+0.3)
PNHK   0.6(-0.2)
JRP     12.5(-0.1)
DPP      2.7(-0.1)
CDP    17.2(+1.2)
RS       2.3(+0.5)
SDP     1.4(+0.7)
JCP      9.5(+1.6)



In 2021 JX was the only poll that picked up the JRP surge toward the end so it might be useful to compare the last JX poll before 2021 and compare it to this poll and the 2021 results

            2022 JX         2021 results        2021 JX
LDP        31.8                 34.7                 32.0
KP           8.6                 12.4                   8.4
PP           1.2
HRP         0.5
PNHK       0.6                   1.4                   0.9
JRP        12.5                  14.0                12.3
DPP         2.7                    4.5                  2.5
CDP       17.2                  20.0                21.3
RS          2.3                    3.9                  1.6
SDP        1.4                    1.8                  1.4
JCP         9.5                    7.3                  7.6

Other than KP the JX poll was pretty good at predicting final PR results.  There was clearly a last-minute JRP surge in the Greater Osaka area which produced a very strong JRP vote.  Not sure we can count on the same surge this time.

It seems LDP KP JRP DPP and SDP all are polling about where they were in the last pre-2021 election poll.  It is CDP that has fallen and JCP that has gained as well as the new far-right party PP as well as HRP which are running this year but did not run in 2021.

All in all relative to 2017 CDP lost ground to JRP who then lost round to PP and other far-right parties for a near-nil net gain.  CDP also lost ground to RS and JCP.
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Logical
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« Reply #288 on: June 28, 2022, 10:01:25 AM »
« Edited: June 28, 2022, 10:54:17 AM by Logical »

Today's Kyodo poll also shows CDP taking second place at the expense of JRP. Very interesting, JRP's momentum has clearly stalled and CDP will likely remain the primary opposition party.
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jaichind
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« Reply #289 on: June 28, 2022, 10:09:29 AM »

Kyodo PR poll (change from mid June)

LDP      28.3 (+1.0)
KP          7.2 (+1.0)
PNHK      0.8 (-0.3)
JRP         6.1 (-1.6)
DPP        1.8 (-0.4)
CDP        8.2 (+1.2)
RS          1.3 (-0.5)
SDP        0.8 (--)
JCP         4.1 (-0.4)

Matches some of the other polls out there in terms of trends other than JCP which is falling in this poll when other polls seems to have JCP surging.
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jaichind
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« Reply #290 on: June 28, 2022, 10:26:04 AM »

Kyodo poll says that 79.8% say that Kishida's anti-inflation measures are insufficient.  Around 15% says it is.
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xelas81
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« Reply #291 on: June 28, 2022, 12:43:00 PM »

Are any of the fringe parties advocating for end of Japanese sanctions on Russia?
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jaichind
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« Reply #292 on: June 28, 2022, 01:34:15 PM »

Are any of the fringe parties advocating for end of Japanese sanctions on Russia?

Most of them do seem to put much effort/time on Russia sanctions since

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2022/06/26/business/less-3-japan-firms-exiting-russia-lowest-among-g7-survey/

"Less than 3% of Japan firms exiting Russia, lowest among G7: survey"

Most of the differences are the choice between

a) Continue Japanese alliance with USA to counter PRC but as equals and with nuclear weapons
b) End alliance with USA and become an independent superpower with nuclear weapons to take on PRC

a) and b) in de facto terms are the same since both has Japan being independent military superpower that is either de jure or de facto aligned with USA to take on PRC.  Those that are for b) area really about pushing out Western cultural influence out of Japan which to be far all the far right parties are for.
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jaichind
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« Reply #293 on: June 29, 2022, 07:39:50 AM »

Nikkan Gendai says that LDP is at risk of losing its elderly base over these power problems and power rationing.  Of course, Nikkan Gendai is always negative about LDP's chances before an election to boost its sales.
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Logical
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« Reply #294 on: June 29, 2022, 11:17:10 AM »

Are any of the fringe parties advocating for end of Japanese sanctions on Russia?
RS isn't fringe but they are easily the most pro Russia of parties (you may even call them tankies). When the diet voted on a resolution to condemn the Russian invasion the only members to vote against are 3 RS MPs. You can see this on the questionnaire NHK sent to every candidate, all RS PR candidates think that the sanctions on Russia should be eased.

Graded on a spectrum, the most anti Russia party is surprisingly the JCP while RS is by far the most pro Russia.
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jaichind
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« Reply #295 on: June 29, 2022, 12:09:28 PM »

The CDP candidate in 京都(Kyoto) who is in a neck-to-neck race with the JRP for the second of two seats is running on 京都(Kyoto) pride and rejection of 大阪(Osaka) domination inferring that the JRP candidate is an agent of 大阪(Osaka) domination.

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jaichind
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« Reply #296 on: June 29, 2022, 05:20:34 PM »

The heat wave in Japan has already killed over 100 people and the government is begging people to not use power to avoid massive blackouts.  There is also a government campaign to tell people not to wear masks since wearing masks increases the chance of a heat stroke in a time of high temperatures.
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jaichind
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« Reply #297 on: June 29, 2022, 05:30:43 PM »

Despite media surveys to the contrary there continue to be rumors out of 岡山(Okayama) that the LDP incumbant could be in trouble against the pro-CDP independent despite the JCP candidate being in the mix.    It seems the reason is that Rengo has decided to go all out to back the pro-CDP independent because the JCP is not part of the CDP alliance and more importantly it seems the local KP has also turned against the LDP.  It seems there are upsides to JCP not being part of the united opposition alliance which means Rengo and KP could switch over to a pro-CDP candidate.  We will see on election night how much these rumors hold up.
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Logical
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« Reply #298 on: June 30, 2022, 02:27:03 AM »
« Edited: June 30, 2022, 02:42:56 AM by Logical »

One of the LDP PR candidate is a famous Manga artist, Ken Akamatsu. Some posters here might be familiar with a few of his works.

He is running on an anti censorship, artistic freedom platform against laws regulating the distribution of manga and anime to minors. He is likely to be elected as he has the backing of the Japanese entertainment industry and their supporters.

His campaign office
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TimTurner
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« Reply #299 on: June 30, 2022, 02:37:30 AM »

Despite media surveys to the contrary there continue to be rumors out of 岡山(Okayama) that the LDP incumbant could be in trouble against the pro-CDP independent despite the JCP candidate being in the mix.    It seems the reason is that Rengo has decided to go all out to back the pro-CDP independent because the JCP is not part of the CDP alliance and more importantly it seems the local KP has also turned against the LDP.  It seems there are upsides to JCP not being part of the united opposition alliance which means Rengo and KP could switch over to a pro-CDP candidate.  We will see on election night how much these rumors hold up.

If they have turned against the local LDP, what was the most likely reason why?
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