Japan 2022 Upper House elections July 10
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Author Topic: Japan 2022 Upper House elections July 10  (Read 19013 times)
Logical
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« Reply #25 on: January 22, 2022, 10:59:20 AM »

For the rump SDP (half of their parliamentary caucus and grassroots base defected to the CDP in early 2021) this is a do or die election. To qualify for political party subsidies you must have at least 5 MPs (they have 2) or win 2% of the nationwide PR vote in the last Lower or Upper House election. SDP won 2.09% in the 2019 UH election and 1.77% in the 2021 LH election. If they can't get above 2% in the national PR in this election then they can say goodbye to some 300 million Yen annually. Without the money, they would eventually be forced to merge with CDP or JCP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #26 on: January 22, 2022, 11:00:04 AM »

Election for 名護市(Nago) mayor in 沖縄(Okinawa) tomorrow.  In 2018 LDP-KP roped in JRP to form a grand alliance to defeat the Center-Left opposition-JCP grand alliance incumbent 54.6-45.4.  This time around the pro-LDP incumbent backed by LDP-KP is facing a Center-Left opposition-JCP candidate.  This time the JRP is neutral which makes the race competitive despite the pro-LDP candidate having the incumbent advantage.  Most likely the pro-LDP candidate will win but if it is very close it is a positive signal for the incumbent Center-Left opposition-JCP governor when he is up for re-election later this year.
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jaichind
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« Reply #27 on: January 23, 2022, 07:43:55 AM »

名護市(Nago) mayor election exit poll has pro-LDP incumbent with a tiny lead over Center-Left Opposition-JCP grand alliance.  This shows the impact of JRP which was neutral this election but with JRP backing the Center-Left Opposition-JCP grand alliance incumbent was defeated by the pro-LDP candidate in 2018.
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jaichind
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« Reply #28 on: January 23, 2022, 09:36:26 AM »

名護市(Nago) mayor election ended in a big LDP-KP victory of a vote share 57.5% over the Center-Left Opposition-JCP alliance.  It seems the exit polls were off because the LDP-KP incumbent swept the early vote.  LDP now has a chance at unseating the 沖縄(Okinawa) Center-Left Opposition-JCP alliance incumbent later this year.
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Logical
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« Reply #29 on: February 01, 2022, 12:38:56 AM »

Author, former Tokyo Governor and the most prominent Japanese far right politician, Ishihara Shintaro, has died at 89.
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Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #30 on: February 01, 2022, 12:41:04 AM »

Author, former Tokyo Governor and the most prominent Japanese far right politician, Ishihara Shintaro, has died at 89.
Big news. He was Governor of Tokyo less than 120 months ago too.
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PSOL
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« Reply #31 on: February 01, 2022, 12:55:26 AM »

For the rump SDP (half of their parliamentary caucus and grassroots base defected to the CDP in early 2021) this is a do or die election. To qualify for political party subsidies you must have at least 5 MPs (they have 2) or win 2% of the nationwide PR vote in the last Lower or Upper House election. SDP won 2.09% in the 2019 UH election and 1.77% in the 2021 LH election. If they can't get above 2% in the national PR in this election then they can say goodbye to some 300 million Yen annually. Without the money, they would eventually be forced to merge with CDP or JCP.
Or they could just fizzle out. That and I highly doubt that they would merge with the JCP given historical separation and the JCP’s hierarchy and dislike for entryists or alliances with other smaller social democratic and socialist parties not apart of a grand coalition(not like there’s much of that, but still).

CDP already took a significant amount of the party’s local machinery and MP’s, so there is some doubt that the CDP would even accept it from their end.
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Logical
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« Reply #32 on: February 01, 2022, 01:55:45 AM »

Nikkei January 28-30 poll

Kishida approvals 59(-6)/30(+4)

Upper House PR voting intentions
LDP 43 (+5)
JRP 16 (+6)
CDP 10 (-10)
JCP 4 (-2)
KP 3 (-5)
DPP 2
RS 1 (-1)
SDP 1
NP 0 (-1)

Kishida's honeymoon is waning off but he remains in a powerful position.

For the rump SDP (half of their parliamentary caucus and grassroots base defected to the CDP in early 2021) this is a do or die election. To qualify for political party subsidies you must have at least 5 MPs (they have 2) or win 2% of the nationwide PR vote in the last Lower or Upper House election. SDP won 2.09% in the 2019 UH election and 1.77% in the 2021 LH election. If they can't get above 2% in the national PR in this election then they can say goodbye to some 300 million Yen annually. Without the money, they would eventually be forced to merge with CDP or JCP.
Or they could just fizzle out. That and I highly doubt that they would merge with the JCP given historical separation and the JCP’s hierarchy and dislike for entryists or alliances with other smaller social democratic and socialist parties not apart of a grand coalition(not like there’s much of that, but still).

CDP already took a significant amount of the party’s local machinery and MP’s, so there is some doubt that the CDP would even accept it from their end.
Perhaps so, but SDP still owns a not insignificant amount of property and assets that comes handy for the often cash strapped CDP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #33 on: February 02, 2022, 09:02:59 AM »

What the Lower House seat counts per prefecture in 2040 will be going by current population trends.
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jaichind
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« Reply #34 on: February 12, 2022, 07:53:02 AM »

長崎(Nagasaki) governor race next Sunday.  It is a LDP civil war with CDP-DPP clearly backing one side and LDP-KP-JRP backing the other.

The incumbent was elected in 2010 as the LDP-KP backed candidate defeating the DPJ backed candidate. In 2014 and 2018 he won re-election as the mainstream parties consensus candidate defeating a JCP candidate both times.  He wants to run for re-election this time but due to his age, LDP-KP decided to support a new person, a doctor.   The incumbent decides to run anyway with CDP-DPP support while JRP is backing the new LDP-KP backed candidate.  There is a minor independent in the race as well but the race comes down to CDP-DPP backed incumbent vs LDP-KP-JRP backed challenger.  JCP seems to be neutral in all this.

The race will be close but you have to give the edge to the incumbent in races like this even if the LDP-KP-JRP alliance is arrayed against him.
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jaichind
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« Reply #35 on: February 12, 2022, 09:59:50 AM »

https://www.yomiuri.co.jp/election/local/20220212-OYT1T50281/?r=1

Yomiuri poll has CDP-DPP backed incumbent ahead of LDP-JRP backed opposition candidate.  Correction, it seems KP is staying neutral in this one which means the KP base will most likely split or even lean toward the CDP-DPP backed incumbent.  According to the Yomiuri poll, LDP voters are actually breaking in favor of the CDP-DPP backed incumbent.
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Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #36 on: February 12, 2022, 02:03:19 PM »

What the Lower House seat counts per prefecture in 2040 will be going by current population trends.

I'm making a map based off this. I will post as soon as I can.
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Southern Delegate and Atlasian AG Punxsutawney Phil
TimTurner
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« Reply #37 on: February 12, 2022, 03:25:02 PM »

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=303321.msg8475830#msg8475830
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jaichind
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« Reply #38 on: February 12, 2022, 08:48:03 PM »
« Edited: February 13, 2022, 10:28:57 AM by jaichind »

Another fun race next Sunday will be the election for mayor of 町田市(Machida) in Tokyo where a 4 way split of the right-wing vote is likely to throw the race to a Center-Left-JCP united front candidate.  The 4-term incumbent had won the last 4 times based on LDP-KP support.  This time around, just like the 長崎(Nagasaki) governor race, the LDP-KP is withholding support to the incumbent due to his age (he is 74.)  A former LDP Tokyo MLA is running and LDP-KP is neutral leading to a split of the LDP-KP vote.  Also, a JRP candidate jumped in as well as a pro-LDP candidate with a defense establishment background.  The Center-Left-JCP formed an alliance to capture the mayor's position.  Also, PNHK is in the fray.

So the candidates are

Center-Left-JCP united front (CDP-JCP-SDP-RS-GP)
pro-LDP-KP incumbent
former LDP MLA
pro-LDP defense estblishment
JRP
PNHK

If I had to guess the result will be something like

Center-Left-JCP united front (CDP-JCP-SDP-RS-GP)    32%
pro-LDP-KP incumbent                                             26%
JRP                                                                         20%
former LDP MLA                                                       14%
pro-LDP defense establishment                                   5%
PNHK                                                                        3%

where the Center-Left-JCP united front wins with a 4 way split of the Center-Right vote.
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jaichind
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« Reply #39 on: February 13, 2022, 06:23:24 AM »

https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXZQOUA1247B0S2A210C2000000/

For upcoming Upper House elections, the DPP leader is proposing a party member vote on if DPP should be part of a CDP-led alliance in 1- member seat just like in 2019.  In the meantime, it is not clear at all if JCP will be part of this CDP-led alliance in 1- members seats.  I suspect in the end the need to survive will force CDP DPP and JCP to de facto reform the 2016 and 2019 1- member district alliance or face total wipeout in those seats like in 2013.
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jaichind
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« Reply #40 on: February 14, 2022, 07:11:09 AM »

https://www.fnn.jp/articles/-/315403

JX poll for 長崎(Nagasaki) governor race has pro-LDP challenger ahead of CDP-DPP backed incumbent which is the opposite of the Yomiuri poll.  Seems like the race is very tight.
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jaichind
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« Reply #41 on: February 14, 2022, 08:14:37 AM »
« Edited: February 18, 2022, 07:03:11 PM by jaichind »

List of poll for 長崎(Nagasaki) governor race which has both incumbent and challenger with leads in 2 polls

It seems JCP is backing the third independent candidate.  Also, the national LDP decided to back the incumbent while the prefecture LDP will back the challenger



So the race is

CDP-DPP-National LDP backed incumbent
Prefectural LDP-JRP
JCP  
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jaichind
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« Reply #42 on: February 15, 2022, 08:05:26 AM »

Latest JX PR poll (change from Jan 2022)


LDP    32.5 (-0.3)
KP       5.3 (-0.5)
PNHK   0.9 (+0.2)
JRP    19.2 (+2.5)
DPP     2.5 (+0.5)
CDP   13.9 (-3.8 )
RS       1.5 (--)
SDP     1.9 (-0.6)
JCP      6.5 (+0.5)

JRP gained a lot and CDP lost a lot.  Most likely related to former PM and now CDP MP Naoto Kan claiming that JRP reminds him of NASDP a couple weeks back.
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jaichind
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« Reply #43 on: February 16, 2022, 09:04:38 AM »

https://mainichi.jp/articles/20220216/k00/00m/010/330000c

Rengo came out for backing CDP and DPP in the upcoming Upper House elections but was opposed to cooperation/support of JCP and JRP.  This does make it hard for CDP to form alliances with JCP and DPP to form alliances with JRP.  Such alliances will have to be covert since Rengo forms the core of the GOTV cadre for both CDP and DPP, especially DPP.
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jaichind
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« Reply #44 on: February 18, 2022, 07:02:58 PM »

6 polls have been out for the 長崎(Nagasaki) governor race this Sunday.  3 has CDP-DPP-National LDP backed incumbent ahead and 3 has Prefectural LDP-JRP ahead.
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jaichind
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« Reply #45 on: February 20, 2022, 06:08:01 AM »
« Edited: February 20, 2022, 06:11:50 AM by jaichind »

長崎(Nagasaki) governor voting over.  

NBC exit poll

CDP-DPP-National LDP backed incumbent      47
Prefecture LDP-JRP                                      45
JCP                                                              8



neck-to-neck.  Anyone's race
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jaichind
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« Reply #46 on: February 20, 2022, 06:19:03 AM »

長崎(Nagasaki) governor exit poll shows that Prefecture LDP-JRP candidate outperforms in those in the 30s and 40s which is exactly where JRP is strong.  JRP factor is big here if the Prefecture LDP-JRP candidate pulls off an upset.
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jaichind
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« Reply #47 on: February 20, 2022, 07:26:57 AM »

長崎(Nagasaki) governor  race (16% in)

CDP-DPP-National LDP backed incumbent      47.3%
Prefecture LDP-JRP                                      42.9%
JCP                                                              9.8%

mostly matching exit polls
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jaichind
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« Reply #48 on: February 20, 2022, 07:47:06 AM »

長崎(Nagasaki) governor  race (29% in)

CDP-DPP-National LDP backed incumbent      49.1%
Prefecture LDP-JRP                                      42.9%
JCP                                                              8.1%

So far the CDP-DPP-National LDP-backed incumbent is stronger in rural and suburban areas.  Heavy urban areas are not in or are neck-to-neck.  So I do expect the more JRP heavy urban areas to close the gap but it seems the CDP-DPP-National LDP backed incumbent most likely has this.
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jaichind
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« Reply #49 on: February 20, 2022, 08:21:51 AM »

長崎(Nagasaki) governor  race (36% in)

CDP-DPP-National LDP backed incumbent      48.0%
Prefecture LDP-JRP                                      44.4%
JCP                                                              7.6%

Prefecture LDP-JRP candidate closes the gap by having one of his suburban strongholds come in heavy for him with nothing from 長崎市(Nagasaki City).  I think 長崎市(Nagasaki City) will decide this.
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