Japan 2022 Upper House elections July 10
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jaichind
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« Reply #50 on: February 20, 2022, 08:32:31 AM »

Another fun race next Sunday will be the election for mayor of 町田市(Machida) in Tokyo where a 4 way split of the right-wing vote is likely to throw the race to a Center-Left-JCP united front candidate.  The 4-term incumbent had won the last 4 times based on LDP-KP support.  This time around, just like the 長崎(Nagasaki) governor race, the LDP-KP is withholding support to the incumbent due to his age (he is 74.)  A former LDP Tokyo MLA is running and LDP-KP is neutral leading to a split of the LDP-KP vote.  Also, a JRP candidate jumped in as well as a pro-LDP candidate with a defense establishment background.  The Center-Left-JCP formed an alliance to capture the mayor's position.  Also, PNHK is in the fray.

So the candidates are

Center-Left-JCP united front (CDP-JCP-SDP-RS-GP)
pro-LDP-KP incumbent
former LDP MLA
pro-LDP defense estblishment
JRP
PNHK

If I had to guess the result will be something like

Center-Left-JCP united front (CDP-JCP-SDP-RS-GP)    32%
pro-LDP-KP incumbent                                             26%
JRP                                                                         20%
former LDP MLA                                                       14%
pro-LDP defense establishment                                   5%
PNHK                                                                        3%

where the Center-Left-JCP united front wins with a 4 way split of the Center-Right vote.

The very early result is very bad for the Center-Left-JCP united front (CDP-JCP-SDP-RS-GP) candidate where he is coming in third.  The election seems to be a neck-to-neck battle between the former LDP MLA and pro-LDP-KP incumbent backed by TPFA.  It seems TPFA-DPP is playing a big role in shifting votes toward the incumbent while voters opposed to the incumbent are going to the former LDP MLA.
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jaichind
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« Reply #51 on: February 20, 2022, 08:41:56 AM »

Another fun race next Sunday will be the election for mayor of 町田市(Machida) in Tokyo where a 4 way split of the right-wing vote is likely to throw the race to a Center-Left-JCP united front candidate.  The 4-term incumbent had won the last 4 times based on LDP-KP support.  This time around, just like the 長崎(Nagasaki) governor race, the LDP-KP is withholding support to the incumbent due to his age (he is 74.)  A former LDP Tokyo MLA is running and LDP-KP is neutral leading to a split of the LDP-KP vote.  Also, a JRP candidate jumped in as well as a pro-LDP candidate with a defense establishment background.  The Center-Left-JCP formed an alliance to capture the mayor's position.  Also, PNHK is in the fray.

So the candidates are

Center-Left-JCP united front (CDP-JCP-SDP-RS-GP)
pro-LDP-KP incumbent
former LDP MLA
pro-LDP defense estblishment
JRP
PNHK

If I had to guess the result will be something like

Center-Left-JCP united front (CDP-JCP-SDP-RS-GP)    32%
pro-LDP-KP incumbent                                             26%
JRP                                                                         20%
former LDP MLA                                                       14%
pro-LDP defense establishment                                   5%
PNHK                                                                        3%

where the Center-Left-JCP united front wins with a 4 way split of the Center-Right vote.

So far it is
pro-LDP-KP incumbent (backed by TPFA)                32%
former LDP MLA                                                    32%
JRP                                                                      23%
Center-Left-JCP united front (CDP-JCP-SDP-RS-GP)  13%
PNHK                                                                     1%
pro-LDP defense establishment                                0%

A lot of the center-left vote it seems has gone to the incumbent due to TPFA while a good part of the LDP-KP vote has gone to the former LDP MLA
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jaichind
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« Reply #52 on: February 20, 2022, 08:52:44 AM »

長崎(Nagasaki) governor  race (67% in)

CDP-DPP-National LDP backed incumbent      49.9%
Prefecture LDP-JRP                                      42.8%
JCP                                                              7.3%

Some of 長崎市(Nagasaki City) are in and it is neck-to-neck there.  I think this race should be called for the CDP-DPP-National LDP backed incumbent at this point.
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jaichind
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« Reply #53 on: February 20, 2022, 09:04:43 AM »

町田市(Machida) mayor race

pro-LDP-KP incumbent (backed by TPFA)                36%
former LDP MLA                                                    27%
JRP                                                                      22%
Center-Left-JCP united front (CDP-JCP-SDP-RS-GP)  13%
PNHK                                                                     2%
pro-LDP defense establishment                                1%

A disastrous result for Center-Left-JCP united front.  This result brings back memories of the 2012 Lower House LDP landslide along with the JRP wave as well as the 2017 Tokyo assembly election TPFA wave that wiped out DP.
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Logical
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« Reply #54 on: February 20, 2022, 09:41:02 AM »

NHK has called it for the challenger by fewer than one thousand vote. Nagasaki City did break heavily for the local LDP - JRP candidate.
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jaichind
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« Reply #55 on: February 20, 2022, 09:54:18 AM »

長崎(Nagasaki) governor  race (all votes in)

Shock ending. Prefecture LDP-JRP pulls out a narrow victory with late urban votes coming in !!!

Prefecture LDP-JRP                                      45.6%
CDP-DPP-National LDP backed incumbent      45.5%
JCP                                                              8.9%

The margin of victory seems to be 541 votes.  The Prefecture LDP-JRP backed winner at age 39 will become the youngest governor in Japan.                               
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jaichind
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« Reply #56 on: February 20, 2022, 09:56:12 AM »

町田市(Machida) mayor race

pro-LDP-KP incumbent (backed by TPFA)                36%
former LDP MLA                                                    25%
JRP                                                                      21%
Center-Left-JCP united front (CDP-JCP-SDP-RS-GP)  15%
PNHK                                                                     2%
pro-LDP defense establishment                                1%

The result is clear.  Center-Left-JCP united front (CDP-JCP-SDP-RS-GP) vote share grows from a disastrous 13% to a still disastrous 15%
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jaichind
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« Reply #57 on: February 20, 2022, 10:22:09 AM »

長崎(Nagasaki) governor election results map

Prefecture LDP-JRP winning margin

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jaichind
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« Reply #58 on: February 20, 2022, 11:05:28 AM »

町田市(Machida) mayor race final result

pro-LDP-KP incumbent (backed by TPFA)                36.0%
former LDP MLA                                                    24.7%
JRP                                                                      20.9%
Center-Left-JCP united front (CDP-JCP-SDP-RS-GP)  15.4%
PNHK                                                                     2.2%
pro-LDP defense establishment                                0.9%
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jaichind
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« Reply #59 on: February 21, 2022, 07:18:46 AM »

Koike's TPFA will nominate a candidate in the Tokyo Upper House elections.  This is the first time TPFA will really enter national politics after an aborted attempt back in the 2021 Lower House elections.  I am not counting the creation of Koike's HP back in 2017 because HP was really a new national party and meant to be separate from Tokyo regional TPFA.   This is ultra bad news for DPP since the TPFA candidate will eat up all of DPP votes.  DPP is better off backing this TPFA candidate.  As for the rest of the 6- member race it is hard to tell who else this hurts.  I guess it hurts JRP the most although the TPFA candidate could really eat into the CDP vote as well.
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jaichind
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« Reply #60 on: February 21, 2022, 07:34:40 AM »

What one can get out of the elections this last weekend is the CDP brand has diminished greatly since 2021 while the JRP brand has surged since 2021.  長崎(Nagasaki)  actually trended away from JRP and toward CDP in the 2021 Lower House elections yet now with the LDP vote split the JRP backed candidate beat the CDP-DPP-backed incumbent.  Also, in the 町田市(Machida) mayor race, the Center-Left-JCP united front (CDP-JCP-SDP-RS-GP) totally flopped as the CDP vote shifted toward the TPFA backed the ex-LDP-KP incumbent.

Unless these trends change the Center-Left is facing a repeat of the 2013 Upper House landslide defeat.  Worst for the Center-Left is that in 2013 at least JCP was pretty strong which means there was some vote they can get in later elections if alliances can be formed with JCP.   This time the JCP seems much weaker than in 2013 and has never really recovered from its poor 2017 Lower House results.  The only real hope for the Center-Left forces is to accept 3- member and larger districts will go against them but somehow form a tactical alliance with JCP and JRP in single-member districts on a district-by-district basis to try to prevent a LDP sweep there.
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jaichind
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« Reply #61 on: February 21, 2022, 07:46:25 AM »

Koike's TPFA will nominate a candidate in the Tokyo Upper House elections.  This is the first time TPFA will really enter national politics after an aborted attempt back in the 2021 Lower House elections.  I am not counting the creation of Koike's HP back in 2017 because HP was really a new national party and meant to be separate from Tokyo regional TPFA.   This is ultra bad news for DPP since the TPFA candidate will eat up all of DPP votes.  DPP is better off backing this TPFA candidate.  As for the rest of the 6- member race it is hard to tell who else this hurts.  I guess it hurts JRP the most although the TPFA candidate could really eat into the CDP vote as well.

It seems the TPFA candidate will be 荒木千陽 (Araki Chiharu) who is a TPFA MLA and the leader of the 2021 ファーストの会 (First Association) that ended up going nowhere.  I think she will run as a TPFA candidate.  It seems DPP will not run a candidate and back her.

Tokyo is a 6- member district.  TPFA running almost assures that LDP will win 2 of the  6 seats, KP will win one, JCP will win one, and CDP's former DP leader and political superstar Renho will clearly win.  So the last seat will be fought over by a second CDP candidate, JRP and TPFA.  It is hard to see which of the 3 will win but I suspect the second CDP candidate will be an underdog since RS will most likely run and cut into the CDP vote.

The winner of TPFA getting in is clearly LDP which now will win 2 seats for sure.
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jaichind
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« Reply #62 on: February 23, 2022, 11:25:11 AM »

List of candidates announced so far (and likely candidates) by prefecture

Main takeaways

1) LDP lineup, as usual, is very strong filled with incumbents, people with national political experience, or prominent politicians at the prefecture-level.  This is not true for 岩手(Iwate) and 大分(Ōita) where the LDP candidates are prominent lawyers which gives you a sense that the LDP could not recruit top tier candidates for those seats which it is likely to lose.   LDP does not have candidates for 山形(Yamagata),  山梨(Yamanashi), 長野(Nagano), and 沖縄(Okinawa) where they will face strong opposition incumbents.  Again this gives you a sense that LDP will end up being underdogs there.  

2) KP has 7 incumbents running and will win all 7

3) DPP and allies have a strong lineup of candidates so far with 4 incumbents and 3 prominent prefecture-level politicians.

4) CDP and allies seem to have a combo of incumbents, prominent prefecture-level politicians, and political novices.    Unlike DPP, CDP seems to be in a mood to try to experiment or are not able to recruit top-tier talent.

5) JCP has strong candidates in 東京(Tokyo) (incumbent) and 大阪(Osaka) (ex-MP) and have credible candidates in multi-member places 北海道(Hokkaido), 埼玉(Saitama), 神奈川(Kanagawa), 兵庫(Hyōgo), and 福岡(Fukuoka).  In single-member districts, they seem to be going after DPP announcing candidates in places DPP is running.  For most of them, the LDP is going to win anyway so it does not matter.  So far the main danger to the opposition is 山形(Yamagata) where JCP is running a candidate against the DPP incumbent.  But the LDP does not even have a candidate there which shows the DPP incumbent is in a strong position with or without a JCP candidate.

6) JRP is playing its cards close to its chest.  It is running its 2 incumbents in 大阪(Osaka) and 1 incumbent in 兵庫(Hyōgo) but really is not disclosed who else they will run.  It is clear they will run in a bunch of different places (most likely the 3- member and above districts and 1- member districts in Kinki) but we do not know where and who.

7) In 福島(Fukushima) it is a fun 4-way battle.  The DP incumbent defected to LDP but was rejected by the local LDP chapter and will run as an independent.  The LDP nominated a prominent doctor while an ex-LDP MP is also running as a LDP rebel.  The CDP candidate does not have political experience.  

8 ) In 宮城(Miyagi) the DP incumbent defected to the LDP but was rejected by the local LDP chapter and will run as an independent.  The LDP will run a prominent member of the prefecture assembly while CDP does not have a candidate yet which gives you a sense of where the wind is blowing.

9) CDP does not have a candidate in 大阪(Osaka) which opens up a CDP-JCP deal where CDP does not run in 大阪(Osaka) for JCP not running in 兵庫(Hyōgo).  I doubt JCP will agree to this as JCP has a big base in 兵庫(Hyōgo) and will be fearful of losing that base to CDP if they do not run a candidate.


10)  Overall, LDP-KP has their act together, JRP is hiding their cards, and there is total chaos on the Center-Left Opposition-JCP side with no coordination yet.

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jaichind
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« Reply #63 on: February 26, 2022, 07:39:03 PM »

石川(Ishikawa) governor election March 12th.

It is an open seat Another LDP civil war is leading to a free for all.

The LDP camp will have 3 candidates.  

There is a former LDP Upper House MP that resigned his seat just to run for the governor instead of running for reelection later this Summer.  He has the support of part of the LDP prefecture chapter and CDP.  

Then there is a former LDP Lower House MP that choose not to run for re-election in the Lower House election last year to run for governor.  He has the support of the other part of the LDP prefecture chapter and the JRP.

There is also a pro-LDP mayor that insists on running.

There is a pro-JCP candidate

Lastly, there is a minor independent running

The pro-JCP candidate will most likely get around 6%-8% of the vote which means the 3 pro-LDP candidates will battle it out for the victory with CDP and JRP each taking sides in the LDP civil war.  No polls yet but this one will also be interesting to see the impact of the JRP as JRP has been eating into the LDP and CDP vote here the last couple of cycles and is now one of the strongest JRP rural prefectures outside of Kinki.
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jaichind
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« Reply #64 on: February 27, 2022, 07:36:36 AM »

石川(Ishikawa) governor election March 12th.

It is an open seat Another LDP civil war is leading to a free for all.

The LDP camp will have 3 candidates.  

There is a former LDP Upper House MP that resigned his seat just to run for the governor instead of running for reelection later this Summer.  He has the support of part of the LDP prefecture chapter and CDP.  

Then there is a former LDP Lower House MP that choose not to run for re-election in the Lower House election last year to run for governor.  He has the support of the other part of the LDP prefecture chapter and the JRP.

There is also a pro-LDP mayor that insists on running.

There is a pro-JCP candidate

Lastly, there is a minor independent running

The pro-JCP candidate will most likely get around 6%-8% of the vote which means the 3 pro-LDP candidates will battle it out for the victory with CDP and JRP each taking sides in the LDP civil war.  No polls yet but this one will also be interesting to see the impact of the JRP as JRP has been eating into the LDP and CDP vote here the last couple of cycles and is now one of the strongest JRP rural prefectures outside of Kinki.

石川(Ishikawa) prefecture assembly MLA support

Former LDP Upper House MP backed by CDP - 21 LDP MLA, 7 Center-Left MLA
Former LDP Lower House MP backed by JRP - 10 LDP MLA, 2 KP MLA
Former Pro-LDP mayor of 金沢市(Kanazawa) - 1 LDP MLA, 1 Center-Left MLA
pro-JCP candidate - 1 JCP MLA

金沢市(Kanazawa) is the largest city in 石川(Ishikawa)

Looks like the race will be a battle between the two former LDP MPs.  JRP, KP, and a minority of the LDP prefecture MLAs are on one side and the majority of the LDP prefecture MLA plus Center-Left Opposition are on the other.
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jaichind
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« Reply #65 on: February 27, 2022, 10:54:04 AM »

The situation in the 4- member (and just for this election 5- member) 神奈川(Kanagawa) for the CDP is going from bad to worse as it now faces a total wipeout here.

In 2016 LDP ran 2 candidates, DP ran 2 candidates, KP and JCP ran a candidate each.  Having 3 Center-Left/Left candidates in the fray split the non-Right vote allowing LDP to win 2 seats, KP 1 and DP 1 leading to a Right/Left balance of 3/1.

In 2019 the result was similar except the Center-Left had CDP and DPP candidates each and LDP only one candidate as ex-governor JRP's 松沢 成文(Matsuzawa Shigefumi) had a DPJ background before going to YP was in the fray.  The result was a win for LDP KP JRP and CDP again a Right/Left balance of 3/1.

In 2021  松沢 成文(Matsuzawa Shigefumi) resigned to run in a failed bid to become mayor of 横浜(Yokohama).  The by-election for his spot was decided to be held at the same time as the 2022 Upper House election where for this election 神奈川(Kanagawa) will become a 5- member district and the 5th place winner will serve out the rest of 松沢 成文(Matsuzawa Shigefumi)'s term and have to face re-election in 2025.

One of LDP's 2016 winners resigned late last year to successfully run for a Lower House seat.  In his place, ex-YP leader and former DPJ Upper House MP 浅尾 慶一郎(Asao Keiichirō) will run as the second LDP candidate.  松沢 成文(Matsuzawa Shigefumi) is going to run as well for JRP as are the other 2016 LDP and KP winners.  The CDP is hoping to run 2 candidates and get the Right/Left split to be 3/2.  CDP took a blow their 2016 incumbent 中西健治 (Nakanishi Kenji) just announced he will retire and not run for re-election.  To be fair 中西健治 (Nakanishi Kenji) who has a LDP background before joining YP and then JRP and then DP and then CDP is in his 70s so this decision was not a shock.  Now CDP has to find 2 solid candidates to run to try to win 2 seats out of 5.  This now seems very unlikely as the 2 LDP candidates, the 1 KP and 1 JRP candidate all seem to be poised to win.  It will be CDP vs JCP to win the last seats and if CDP nominates 2 weak candidates their votes will be split and JCP will win the last seat.

CDP needs a big reboot of their entire 神奈川(Kanagawa)  game plan or they are going to be in big trouble in the Summer.
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jaichind
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« Reply #66 on: February 28, 2022, 06:25:03 AM »

Kishida cabinet approval curve.  Mostly holding steady at around 50%
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jaichind
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« Reply #67 on: February 28, 2022, 08:03:18 AM »

石川(Ishikawa) governor election polls

Wild polls.  The 3 pro-LDP candidates each are ahead in at least one poll.  Surprising strength for the former Pro-LDP mayor of 金沢市(Kanazawa) over the 2 former MPs which are backed each by CDP and JRP respectively.
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jaichind
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« Reply #68 on: March 13, 2022, 06:05:02 AM »

石川(Ishikawa) governor exit polls

Former LDP Upper House MP backed by CDP 
Former LDP Lower House MP backed by JRP 
Former Pro-LDP mayor of 金沢市(Kanazawa) 

are in a 3-way tie. 

Former LDP Lower House MP backed by JRP slightly ahead of Former Pro-LDP mayor of 金沢市(Kanazawa)  who is slightly ahead of Former LDP Upper House MP backed by CDP



pro-JCP candidates and minor independents are way behind

JCP vote tiny and many JCP voters must have tactically voted for the top 3 candidates.
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jaichind
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« Reply #69 on: March 13, 2022, 06:12:55 AM »

Another 石川(Ishikawa) governor exit poll has exact %

Former LDP Lower House MP backed by JRP        36%
Former Pro-LDP mayor of 金沢市(Kanazawa)        33%
Former LDP Upper House MP backed by CDP       28%
pro-JCP                                                              2%
Minor independent                                              1%


Looks like another JRP victory over CDP in their intervention of a LDP civil war.
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jaichind
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« Reply #70 on: March 13, 2022, 08:07:59 AM »

石川(Ishikawa) governor count (18% of the vote in)

Former LDP Lower House MP backed by JRP        35.0%
Former LDP Upper House MP backed by CDP       33.1%
Former Pro-LDP mayor of 金沢市(Kanazawa)        29.4%
pro-JCP                                                              2.4%
Minor independent                                              0.1%

Nothing from 金沢市(Kanazawa) yet so Former Pro-LDP mayor of 金沢市(Kanazawa) is most likely underestimated here.
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jaichind
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Posts: 20,867
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #71 on: March 13, 2022, 08:34:12 AM »
« Edited: March 13, 2022, 08:52:55 AM by jaichind »

石川(Ishikawa) governor count (43% of the vote in)

Former LDP Lower House MP backed by JRP        37.0%
Former LDP Upper House MP backed by CDP       33.9%
Former Pro-LDP mayor of 金沢市(Kanazawa)        26.3%
pro-JCP                                                              2.6%
Minor independent                                              0.4%

Almost nothing from 金沢市(Kanazawa) yet so Former Pro-LDP mayor of 金沢市(Kanazawa) is most likely underestimated here
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jaichind
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Posts: 20,867
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #72 on: March 13, 2022, 08:54:55 AM »

石川(Ishikawa) governor count (59% of the vote in)

Former LDP Lower House MP backed by JRP        36.0%
Former LDP Upper House MP backed by CDP       35.2%
Former Pro-LDP mayor of 金沢市(Kanazawa)        25.8%
pro-JCP                                                              2.5%
Minor independent                                              0.4%

Almost nothing from 金沢市(Kanazawa).  Former Pro-LDP mayor of 金沢市(Kanazawa) will gain a bunch from 金沢市(Kanazawa) when it comes in but most likely not enough.  Former LDP Lower House MP backed by JRP is most likely stronger than Former LDP Upper House MP backed by CDP.   Former LDP Lower House MP backed by JRP is in a strong position to win now.
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jaichind
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Posts: 20,867
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #73 on: March 13, 2022, 09:04:19 AM »

石川(Ishikawa) governor count (67% of the vote in)

Former LDP Upper House MP backed by CDP       36.5%
Former LDP Lower House MP backed by JRP        34.8%
Former Pro-LDP mayor of 金沢市(Kanazawa)        25.5%
pro-JCP                                                              2.7%
Minor independent                                              0.5%

Former LDP Upper House MP backed by CDP  takes the lead but 金沢市(Kanazawa) comes in it will be heavy for Former Pro-LDP mayor of 金沢市(Kanazawa)  and Former LDP Lower House MP backed by JRP  will most likely get more votes out of there than Former LDP Upper House MP backed by CDP.
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jaichind
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Posts: 20,867
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Political Matrix
E: 9.03, S: -5.39

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« Reply #74 on: March 13, 2022, 09:21:08 AM »

Everything expect for 金沢市(Kanazawa) are in. 金沢市(Kanazawa)  results will decide this 3 way battle.
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