Japan 2022 Upper House elections July 10
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jaichind
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« Reply #75 on: March 13, 2022, 09:32:57 AM »

石川(Ishikawa) governor count (76% of the vote in)

Former LDP Upper House MP backed by CDP       36.1%
Former LDP Lower House MP backed by JRP        34.5%
Former Pro-LDP mayor of 金沢市(Kanazawa)        26.2%
pro-JCP                                                              2.6%
Minor independent                                              0.6%

Some 金沢市(Kanazawa) coming in but so far is splitting the vote between the 3 front runners evenly. Only later in the count will there be a break for one of them which is certain to be the former pro-LDP mayor of 金沢市(Kanazawa).  The question is, by how much.
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jaichind
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« Reply #76 on: March 13, 2022, 09:57:02 AM »

石川(Ishikawa) governor count (85% of the vote in)

Former LDP Lower House MP backed by JRP        35.1%
Former LDP Upper House MP backed by CDP       33.9%
Former Pro-LDP mayor of 金沢市(Kanazawa)        27.7%
pro-JCP                                                              2.8%
Minor independent                                              0.6%

More of 金沢市(Kanazawa) is coming in and as expected Former LDP Lower House MP backed by JRP is gaining on the former LDP Upper House MP backed by CDP and retakes the lead.  Although the former Pro-LDP mayor of 金沢市(Kanazawa)  will gain the most of the rest but it seems will not be enough.
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jaichind
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« Reply #77 on: March 13, 2022, 10:20:23 AM »

NHK called the 石川(Ishikawa) governor race for Former LDP Lower House MP backed by JRP   
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jaichind
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« Reply #78 on: March 13, 2022, 10:28:01 AM »

石川(Ishikawa) governor count (99% of the vote in)

Former LDP Lower House MP backed by JRP        34.1%  (called winner by NHK)
Former Pro-LDP mayor of 金沢市(Kanazawa)        32.8%
Former LDP Upper House MP backed by CDP       30.1%
pro-JCP                                                              2.5%
Minor independent                                              0.5%

Almost 金沢市(Kanazawa) is in.  As expected Former Pro-LDP mayor of 金沢市(Kanazawa) gained a bunch but not enough to catch up.
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jaichind
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« Reply #79 on: March 13, 2022, 10:54:09 AM »

石川(Ishikawa) governor count (all counted)

Former LDP Lower House MP backed by JRP        34.1%   
Former Pro-LDP mayor of 金沢市(Kanazawa)        32.7%
Former LDP Upper House MP backed by CDP       29.9%
pro-JCP                                                              2.7%
Minor independent                                              0.5%
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jaichind
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« Reply #80 on: March 15, 2022, 07:14:10 AM »

Latest JX PR poll (change from Feb 2022)


LDP    31.2 (-1.3)
KP       5.4 (+0.1)
PNHK   0.8 (-0.1)
JRP    17.8 (-1.4)
DPP     2.3 (-0.2)
CDP   19.1 (+5.2)
RS       1.2 (-0.2)
SDP     0.8 (-0.2)
JCP      6.0 (-0.5)

CDP regains ground that it lost in Feb at the expense of everyone else.
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jaichind
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« Reply #81 on: March 15, 2022, 07:38:08 AM »

With energy prices rising I suspect the issue of nuclear plant restart will gain traction.  LDP pro nuclear plan reopening will gain from this issue. 
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jaichind
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« Reply #82 on: March 17, 2022, 09:03:56 AM »

JX poll for Tokyo Upper House elections

PR vote

LDP    22.6
KP       5.5
JRP      6.5
DPP     1.3
CDP   11.9
RS       1.3
SDP     0.7
JCP      8.0

Undecided 41



6- member district race

Sure to win
CDP incumbent (Renho)
LDP incumbent
KP incumbent

In the running
JCP incumbent
second LDP candidate
JRP
second CDP candidate
TPFA (backed by DPP)


So 5 candidates in the running are in the race for the last 3 seats.  I am pretty sure the JCP incumbent will make it.  As for the rest it depends on
a) how much of the JRP vote can the DPP-backed TPFA take from JRP
b) CDP's Renho will for sure take a bunch of floating votes.  The question is how much of that are pro-LDP vs pro-CDP floating votes?  If Renho takes a bunch of pro-LDP floating votes then perhaps the second CDP candidate can get in.  If not the second LDP candidate will get in.
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jaichind
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« Reply #83 on: March 19, 2022, 07:07:08 AM »

Mainichi poll

Kishida cabinet approval/disapproval 48(+3)/38(-8)

Kishida has a positive gender gap with women.  Men approval of Kishida cabinet 46/43 while women approval of Kishida cabinet 52/30 which is a reveal of the pattern during the Abe era
 

PR vote
LDP      31(--)
KP         2(-1)
JRP      14(-5)
DPP       5(+1)
CDP     12(+3)
RS         3(-1)
JCP        4(-1)

CDP regained some lost ground that it lost in Feb when former PM and now CDP MP Naoto Kan claimed that JRP were like Hitler which led to a firestorm and loss of support for CDP.
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« Reply #84 on: March 19, 2022, 07:22:28 AM »

Mainichi poll

Kishida cabinet approval/disapproval 48(+3)/38(-8)

Kishida has a positive gender gap with women.  Men approval of Kishida cabinet 46/43 while women approval of Kishida cabinet 52/30 which is a reveal of the pattern during the Abe era
 

PR vote
LDP      31(--)
KP         2(-1)
JRP      14(-5)
DPP       5(+1)
CDP     12(+3)
RS         3(-1)
JCP        4(-1)

CDP regained some lost ground that it lost in Feb when former PM and now CDP MP Naoto Kan claimed that JRP were like Hitler which led to a firestorm and loss of support for CDP.
What would you say is the biggest reason for this gender gap?
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jaichind
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« Reply #85 on: March 19, 2022, 10:15:06 AM »

Mainichi poll

Kishida cabinet approval/disapproval 48(+3)/38(-8)

Kishida has a positive gender gap with women.  Men approval of Kishida cabinet 46/43 while women approval of Kishida cabinet 52/30 which is a reveal of the pattern during the Abe era
 

PR vote
LDP      31(--)
KP         2(-1)
JRP      14(-5)
DPP       5(+1)
CDP     12(+3)
RS         3(-1)
JCP        4(-1)

CDP regained some lost ground that it lost in Feb when former PM and now CDP MP Naoto Kan claimed that JRP were like Hitler which led to a firestorm and loss of support for CDP.
What would you say is the biggest reason for this gender gap?

Just speculation.  Kishida is low-key when compared to Abe which gives Japanese women voters a sense of safety and security. Also, a period of international geopolitical turmoil also is likely to consolidate women voters to rally around the government as a source of stability.   Abe projects an image of principle and action which appeals to Japanese men.  Of course in reality Abe talks a good game but really did not do much in terms of real change.
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jaichind
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« Reply #86 on: March 27, 2022, 07:29:12 AM »

https://www.sankei.com/article/20220327-XMGZZAPRS5NK3BLIXFI7TZDNSY/

JRP leader and current mayor of Osaka City 松井一郎(Matsui Ichirō) gave a speech pointing out the goal of the JRP is to displace CDP in the next general election as the main opposition of Japan.  He also laid out the JRP goals for the upcoming Upper House election.   He indicated on the PR vote the JRP goal would be to overtake CDP in terms of vote share.  As for district elections, JRP will focus on 東京   (Tokyo), 神奈川(Kanagawa), 大阪(Osaka), 兵庫(Hyōgo), and 京都(Kyoto).  The first four are not a surprise since JRP won seats there in the 2019 Upper House elections.  京都(Kyoto) being on the list means that JRP will go all out to win a seat in this 2- member district.  Historically 2- member 京都(Kyoto) has been LDP winning one seat with DPJ/DP/CDP vs JCP for the second.  It now seems JRP is going to come in and turn it into a 3 way battle between CDP JCP and JRP for the second seat.  This seat will get even more interesting and exciting for election night.
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« Reply #87 on: March 28, 2022, 06:47:55 AM »

What would be a realistic ceiling for CDP and separately JRP in a lower house election? Like if they had a really good night?
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jaichind
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« Reply #88 on: March 29, 2022, 05:22:28 AM »
« Edited: March 29, 2022, 08:30:00 AM by jaichind »

What would be a realistic ceiling for CDP and separately JRP in a lower house election? Like if they had a really good night?

We have to break up the seats into district and PR.

In 2021 CDP won 57 district seats and 39 PR seats for 96 seats overall.  CDP was within striking distance in around 35 district seats that easily could have gone its way if it had overperformed versus underperformed.  On the PR slate, DPP JRP RS overperformed which ate into the CDP PR vote, and CDP at 39 PR seats was pretty much at the bottom of CW projections. I figure CDP getting 48 PR seats would be a reasonable number in a CDP outperforming election.  So that gets CDP to 140 or even 145.  In fact, pre-2021 election 145 was around where the pro-CDP projections had it.

In 2021 JRP won 16 district seats and 25 seats for 41 seats overall.  It already swept all non-KP seats in 大阪(Osaka) so they hit their ceiling there already in 2021.  In 兵庫(Hyōgo) they won 1 seat but had all JRP PR voters in 兵庫(Hyōgo) in district races JPR would have won 3.  One more would be close so one figures JRP on a good night could have won 3 more district seats.  It seems unlikely JRP can expect to win any other district race outside these two prefectures.  As for PR 25 seats for JRP was clearly an outperforming performance.  In theory, JRP's cap is its 2012 performance of 40 PR seats but understand that 2012 JRP was really an alliance of the Osaka JRP core plus a bunch of DPJ YP and LDP defectors outside of Osaka most of whom have ended up retiring or going back to CDP DPP or LDP.  Realistically 35 PR seats are the best the JRP can currently expect.  So that puts the JRP cap at something like 54 seats.

For JRP to have a real big breakout would require either

a) DPP to merge with it.  This is not likely as Rengo would be opposed to this. Rengo wants to have a party, however small, that it can control which would be DPP.  Rengo would be fine with DPP forming an alliance with JRP and CDP to beat back its duel enemies of LDP and JCP but would not back DPP merging with JRP

b) Mega CDP split or meltdown with a large number of CDP defectors coming over to JRP.  This would be the re-run of 2012 which for now seems unlikely as CDP with DPP separated have a greater level of ideological coherence even if it is split on how to prioritize alliance making (focus on DPP or even JRP vs focus on JCP)

c) A great LDP split a faction of LDP splitting out and merging with JRP.  While unlikely this seems like the best bet for JRP. This will also potentially get most of DPP to jump ship to join this new enlarged party.

If c) were to take place it could be the fulfillment of an old non-LDP non-JCP center-right opposition prophecy of "the party" which has been around since the early 1990s.  The prophecy of "the party" is a dream of the non-LDP non-JCP center-right opposition where the balance of Japanese politics will be created when a great LDP split takes place and one of the LDP splinters, known as "the party", merges with the non-LDP non-JCP center-right opposition to form LDP II and Japan can have a 2 party system like the USA with LDP I vs LDP II.  There have been many false prophets.  First Ozawa's NFP in the mid-1990s was supposed to be "the party" but broke up.  Then when LP merged into DPJ in the early 2000s they thought was the DPJ could outflank the LDP on the right on economic issues and become "the party".  But DPJ then moved left on economic reform and imploded anyway due to its disastrous term in office from 2009-to 2012.  In 2010 it was thought that LDP libertarian splinter YP could be "the party" but they really never grew out of their niche.  In 2012 Osaka based LDP splinter JRP was supposed to be "the party" but by 2015 it became more of an Osaka regional force than something more national.  In 2017 HP was supposed to be "the party" but it was a flop and HP de facto disbanded and became rump DPP.  Each incarnation of "the party" provoked various defections from LDP and other Center-Left parties hoping to join in on "the party" as it fulfilled its destiny.  All of them were disappointed when "the party" they defected to ended up not being the true prophet.  So for many in JRP and DPP, they continue to wait for the next coming of "the party" from a great LDP split in the future.
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jaichind
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« Reply #89 on: March 29, 2022, 11:51:30 AM »

I made this point before but just like CDP has a strategic dilemma on if it should prioritize alliance with DPP/JRP or JCP the JRP has a similar dilemma on where should it expand its base.

The ideal strategy for JRP should be to eat into the LDP base so it can eventually become the new dominant Center-Right ruling party.  The problem is that during the process of shifting support from LDP to JRP there is an opening for CDP-JCP to come in.  When faced with this threat LDP-JRP swing voters will just jump back to JRP.  If JRP tries to seat into the DPP-CDP vote instead it is faced with the problem of ideological differences between the JRP program and the DPP but especially the CDP base.  Ideally, for JRP the strategy has to beat down the CDP so badly that CDP-JCP is no longer a viable threat and then after the LDP.  This is why you see JRP focusing on CDP in its attacks right now.
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jaichind
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« Reply #90 on: April 01, 2022, 09:44:28 AM »

PNHK just came out and nominated candidates in all districts equal to the number of possible winners in each district.  It seems they are going all out to get the anti-system vote to come out and they push their PR vote up so they can have a PR candidate elected.  The question is where are they getting the money for the deposits and the minimal spending just to get posters out there to run everywhere like this ?
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jaichind
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« Reply #91 on: April 01, 2022, 11:58:04 AM »

JRP has announced that they will have candidates in all multi-member districts which means venturing into places like 北海道(Hokkaido), 福岡(Fukuoka), and 京都(Kyoto) where they have never contested before.   They will make a big impact on 京都(Kyoto) for sure but their impact on 北海道(Hokkaido) and 福岡(Fukuoka) will be unknown.

They already have candidates in LDP stronghold 富山(Toyama) where JRP has been slowly edging out CDP as the main opposition to LDP and 香川(Kagawa) which is a surprise as that is DPP territory and one would think that JRP will leave that seat to its proto-ally DPP.




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« Reply #92 on: April 01, 2022, 12:13:55 PM »

Say the JRP suddenly found itself in charge of the Japanese government. What would they change?
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jaichind
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« Reply #93 on: April 02, 2022, 07:14:38 AM »

Say the JRP suddenly found itself in charge of the Japanese government. What would they change?

Everything outside of foreign policy will become more decentralized.  JRP believes in "prefecture rights" so if JRP were to become the ruling party the prefecture governors and prefecture assemblies will become much more powerful and a good part of the central government budget will be devolved down to them.  Assuming JRP came to power sweeping Western Japan plus various urban centers in the East which is their long term electoral plan, then I can also see JRP moving to de facto divide Japan up into 2 or 3 zones with Osaka being the de facto capital of West Japan and Tokyo being de facto capital of East Japan.  I can even see a Middle Japan zone where Nagoya becomes the de facto capital.   Deep down JRP does not like the central role Tokyo plays in economic and political life and anything to shift power away from Tokyo will be on JRP's agenda.

A more aggressive foreign policy will be something JRP will continue to centralize and push for with higher levels of funding for the military.
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jaichind
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« Reply #94 on: April 04, 2022, 01:47:32 PM »

Comparison between Suga and Kashida cabinet approval rating when they took office and half a year later.  Kashida clearly is effective in keeping his support intact.
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« Reply #95 on: April 04, 2022, 03:52:41 PM »

Say the JRP suddenly found itself in charge of the Japanese government. What would they change?

Everything outside of foreign policy will become more decentralized.  JRP believes in "prefecture rights" so if JRP were to become the ruling party the prefecture governors and prefecture assemblies will become much more powerful and a good part of the central government budget will be devolved down to them.  Assuming JRP came to power sweeping Western Japan plus various urban centers in the East which is their long term electoral plan, then I can also see JRP moving to de facto divide Japan up into 2 or 3 zones with Osaka being the de facto capital of West Japan and Tokyo being de facto capital of East Japan.  I can even see a Middle Japan zone where Nagoya becomes the de facto capital.   Deep down JRP does not like the central role Tokyo plays in economic and political life and anything to shift power away from Tokyo will be on JRP's agenda.

A more aggressive foreign policy will be something JRP will continue to centralize and push for with higher levels of funding for the military.

This assumes that a JRP that wins power will still care about regionalism. Spoiler alert: They won't. They only care about regionalism now because they're an Osaka-based party who wants to have more power to play in their own sandbox. If they were winning nationally, regionalism would no longer be appealing to them because it would just preserve the power of local LDP and/or CDP administrations in prefectures JRP didn't control.

The JRP's governance would be literally indistinguishable from the LDP's, even in terms of military issues IMO, although that is less certain.
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jaichind
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« Reply #96 on: April 04, 2022, 04:18:57 PM »

Say the JRP suddenly found itself in charge of the Japanese government. What would they change?

Everything outside of foreign policy will become more decentralized.  JRP believes in "prefecture rights" so if JRP were to become the ruling party the prefecture governors and prefecture assemblies will become much more powerful and a good part of the central government budget will be devolved down to them.  Assuming JRP came to power sweeping Western Japan plus various urban centers in the East which is their long term electoral plan, then I can also see JRP moving to de facto divide Japan up into 2 or 3 zones with Osaka being the de facto capital of West Japan and Tokyo being de facto capital of East Japan.  I can even see a Middle Japan zone where Nagoya becomes the de facto capital.   Deep down JRP does not like the central role Tokyo plays in economic and political life and anything to shift power away from Tokyo will be on JRP's agenda.

A more aggressive foreign policy will be something JRP will continue to centralize and push for with higher levels of funding for the military.

This assumes that a JRP that wins power will still care about regionalism. Spoiler alert: They won't. They only care about regionalism now because they're an Osaka-based party who wants to have more power to play in their own sandbox. If they were winning nationally, regionalism would no longer be appealing to them because it would just preserve the power of local LDP and/or CDP administrations in prefectures JRP didn't control.

The JRP's governance would be literally indistinguishable from the LDP's, even in terms of military issues IMO, although that is less certain.

There is a lot of truth in what you are saying.  But the question is "JRP suddenly found itself in charge" which is the JRP as is today.  Many of the JPR leadership I think really care about regionalism and would for sure move in that direction.  I agree in reality the steps JRP has to make to take down CDP and then take down LDP to come to power with KP as its ally would mean it becomes a clone of LDP along the way so when that distant day does come regionalism within JRP would be mostly a solgan by then.
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jaichind
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« Reply #97 on: April 07, 2022, 05:15:24 AM »

The situation in the 4- member (and just for this election 5- member) 神奈川(Kanagawa) for the CDP is going from bad to worse as it now faces a total wipeout here.

In 2016 LDP ran 2 candidates, DP ran 2 candidates, KP and JCP ran a candidate each.  Having 3 Center-Left/Left candidates in the fray split the non-Right vote allowing LDP to win 2 seats, KP 1 and DP 1 leading to a Right/Left balance of 3/1.

In 2019 the result was similar except the Center-Left had CDP and DPP candidates each and LDP only one candidate as ex-governor JRP's 松沢 成文(Matsuzawa Shigefumi) had a DPJ background before going to YP was in the fray.  The result was a win for LDP KP JRP and CDP again a Right/Left balance of 3/1.

In 2021  松沢 成文(Matsuzawa Shigefumi) resigned to run in a failed bid to become mayor of 横浜(Yokohama).  The by-election for his spot was decided to be held at the same time as the 2022 Upper House election where for this election 神奈川(Kanagawa) will become a 5- member district and the 5th place winner will serve out the rest of 松沢 成文(Matsuzawa Shigefumi)'s term and have to face re-election in 2025.

One of LDP's 2016 winners resigned late last year to successfully run for a Lower House seat.  In his place, ex-YP leader and former DPJ Upper House MP 浅尾 慶一郎(Asao Keiichirō) will run as the second LDP candidate.  松沢 成文(Matsuzawa Shigefumi) is going to run as well for JRP as are the other 2016 LDP and KP winners.  The CDP is hoping to run 2 candidates and get the Right/Left split to be 3/2.  CDP took a blow their 2016 incumbent 中西健治 (Nakanishi Kenji) just announced he will retire and not run for re-election.  To be fair 中西健治 (Nakanishi Kenji) who has a LDP background before joining YP and then JRP and then DP and then CDP is in his 70s so this decision was not a shock.  Now CDP has to find 2 solid candidates to run to try to win 2 seats out of 5.  This now seems very unlikely as the 2 LDP candidates, the 1 KP and 1 JRP candidate all seem to be poised to win.  It will be CDP vs JCP to win the last seats and if CDP nominates 2 weak candidates their votes will be split and JCP will win the last seat.

CDP needs a big reboot of their entire 神奈川(Kanagawa)  game plan or they are going to be in big trouble in the Summer.

CDP foolishly nominates 2 candidates, one with some local political experience and the other running in 2019 for DPP in Tokyo.  With DPP also with a candidate, this is headed toward a CDP disaster.

The result is most likely that the 2 LDP candidates, KP, and JRP will come in the first 4 slots with the 2 CDP candidates and JCP trying to win the 5th.  Most likely with the CDP vote split the JCP will win the 5th seat.  Total CDP wipeout.
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jaichind
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« Reply #98 on: April 08, 2022, 10:52:40 AM »

It seems Suga is starting a "study session" of various non-mainstream LDP factions (those in red) which also includes the 二階(Nikai) faction.  Ever since 二階俊博(Nikai Toshihiro) lost his position as LDP General Secretary last year the 二階(Nikai) faction has been in decline and now can be viewed as non-mainstream.  It seems Suga wants to try to create a factional coalition that can rival Abe's faction.

Most Japanese LDP faction moves all start as a "study session."  When a block within a faction wants to split they first create an innocuous "study session" where policy is "studied" in various meetings.  Then at some stage "stipends" for studies are passed out at these "study sessions" to make way for the faction split.  Similar logic works for faction fusions which is clearly what Suga is up to here.
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Conservatopia
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« Reply #99 on: April 08, 2022, 03:06:03 PM »

I know you've done so before but please give us a quick breakdown on the factions.
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