Israel 2022 election (November 1st)
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Author Topic: Israel 2022 election (November 1st)  (Read 33718 times)
DavidB.
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« Reply #475 on: November 02, 2022, 11:42:19 AM »

Ironic how Ben Gvir managed to unite settlers and non-settler, non-Orthodox voters in a way Bennett tried but never could. Of course, the non-settlers Bennett was aiming for were a very different segment of society than the ones Ben Gvir got...

Outside the settlements, RZ/OY's class & religion pattern actually seems reasonably comparable to that of European far-right parties, with all the caveats of comparing Israel to Europe of course.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #476 on: November 02, 2022, 11:53:53 AM »

OK how long until the next inevitable election?
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danny
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« Reply #477 on: November 02, 2022, 11:55:35 AM »

4.215M votes counted

Likud: 23.33%
Yesh Atid: 17.92%
RZP: 10.31%
National unity: 8.92%
Shas: 8.39%
UTJ: 6.13%
Beitenu: 4.36%
Ra'am: 4.34%
Hadash-Ta'al: 3.93%
Labour: 3.56%
----3.25% threshold----
Meretz: 3.19%
Balad: 3.03%
JH: 1.16%
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #478 on: November 02, 2022, 11:56:43 AM »

4.215M votes counted

Likud: 23.33%
Yesh Atid: 17.92%
RZP: 10.31%
National unity: 8.92%
Shas: 8.39%
UTJ: 6.13%
Beitenu: 4.36%
Ra'am: 4.34%
Hadash-Ta'al: 3.93%
Labour: 3.56%
----3.25% threshold----
Meretz: 3.19%
Balad: 3.03%
JH: 1.16%

Over under on Meretz making it?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #479 on: November 02, 2022, 12:10:30 PM »

Outside the settlements, RZ/OY's class & religion pattern actually seems reasonably comparable to that of European far-right parties, with all the caveats of comparing Israel to Europe of course.

That does suggest that Netanyahu might find it harder to put them back in their box now that they're too big for comfort, as he will surely try to do unless he's had a personality transplant.
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Estrella
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« Reply #480 on: November 02, 2022, 12:15:45 PM »

Ironic how Ben Gvir managed to unite settlers and non-settler, non-Orthodox voters in a way Bennett tried but never could. Of course, the non-settlers Bennett was aiming for were a very different segment of society than the ones Ben Gvir got...

Who was Bennett aiming for? IIRC in 2013 he was chasing disappointed middle-class voters (Likud-voting Mizrahi social climbers?), like a right-wing mirror image of Lapid. Is that correct, and could it have worked?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #481 on: November 02, 2022, 12:16:15 PM »

There is maybe a case for 2.5%, mostly eliminating total "joke" parties but enabling all non-negligible elements of the electorate to get some representation.

I think a better idea - especially given Israel's peculiar social geography - would be to have all MKs elected from multi-seat geographical constituencies. You have both a somewhat more stable (in theory...) Knesset and something close to guaranteed representation (without need for pacts or tactical voting ploys) for most non-negligible elements in the most Kaleidoscopic of societies. Would also encourage stronger party structures and make it possible for the odd independent to get in if there's a particular local issue here or there, neither of which would be bad things. Not that it'll happen.
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mileslunn
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« Reply #482 on: November 02, 2022, 12:20:25 PM »

I think better system would be go to first past post or even better IVR like Australia does.  That tends to produce stable governments.  Although I will admit personal bias as generally FTFP popular in countries where done (its why most referendums to change system fail, NZ excepted) while where not in use, it seems few wish to switch to it.
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danny
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« Reply #483 on: November 02, 2022, 12:26:41 PM »

4.215M votes counted

Likud: 23.33%
Yesh Atid: 17.92%
RZP: 10.31%
National unity: 8.92%
Shas: 8.39%
UTJ: 6.13%
Beitenu: 4.36%
Ra'am: 4.34%
Hadash-Ta'al: 3.93%
Labour: 3.56%
----3.25% threshold----
Meretz: 3.19%
Balad: 3.03%
JH: 1.16%

Over under on Meretz making it?

Below 50%, but still a distinct possibility.
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Pres Mike
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« Reply #484 on: November 02, 2022, 12:33:49 PM »

Is all hope lost?
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PSOL
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« Reply #485 on: November 02, 2022, 12:35:06 PM »

There wasn’t any hope to begin with
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Hnv1
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« Reply #486 on: November 02, 2022, 12:35:29 PM »

I lost hope at 16:00 on Election Day
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Horus
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« Reply #487 on: November 02, 2022, 12:50:44 PM »

What a mess, but completely expected. Are there any other countries in the world that are more socially conservative than they were 10 years ago?
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Logical
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« Reply #488 on: November 02, 2022, 01:02:19 PM »

What a mess, but completely expected. Are there any other countries in the world that are more socially conservative than they were 10 years ago?
Brazil? India?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #489 on: November 02, 2022, 01:18:11 PM »

I think better system would be go to first past post or even better IVR like Australia does.  That tends to produce stable governments.  Although I will admit personal bias as generally FTFP popular in countries where done (its why most referendums to change system fail, NZ excepted) while where not in use, it seems few wish to switch to it.

A majoritarian electoral system in a county with a society as fractured as Israel's is just asking for trouble. The Indian experience suggests that, anyway, FPTP does not automatically produce stable parliamentary majorities and stable governments.
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Horus
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« Reply #490 on: November 02, 2022, 01:22:49 PM »

What a mess, but completely expected. Are there any other countries in the world that are more socially conservative than they were 10 years ago?
Brazil? India?

Idk. Take ssm for example. Not sure about India but polls in Brazil show it turning into a non issue. But in Israel polls have shown the middle aged, not the youth, to be most supportive. It really seems like Israel is socially backsliding in a way other countries aren't.
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #491 on: November 02, 2022, 01:24:38 PM »

There is maybe a case for 2.5%, mostly eliminating total "joke" parties but enabling all non-negligible elements of the electorate to get some representation.

I think a better idea - especially given Israel's peculiar social geography - would be to have all MKs elected from multi-seat geographical constituencies. You have both a somewhat more stable (in theory...) Knesset and something close to guaranteed representation (without need for pacts or tactical voting ploys) for most non-negligible elements in the most Kaleidoscopic of societies. Would also encourage stronger party structures and make it possible for the odd independent to get in if there's a particular local issue here or there, neither of which would be bad things. Not that it'll happen.

One particular issue in Israel is the political need to keep the voting system accessible to illiterate voters (like in India, albeit for different reasons there). The only country I can think of offhand with substantial illiteracy and an electoral system where voters don't just pick one option is Papua New Guinea, and it doesn't seem like that works very well.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #492 on: November 02, 2022, 01:29:21 PM »

One particular issue in Israel is the political need to keep the voting system accessible to illiterate voters (like in India, albeit for different reasons there). The only country I can think of offhand with substantial illiteracy and an electoral system where voters don't just pick one option is Papua New Guinea, and it doesn't seem like that works very well.

Yes, that's true. I think that would mean that closed constituency lists would be more appropriate than STV or open lists.
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Linus Van Pelt
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« Reply #493 on: November 02, 2022, 01:43:24 PM »

There is maybe a case for 2.5%, mostly eliminating total "joke" parties but enabling all non-negligible elements of the electorate to get some representation.

I think a better idea - especially given Israel's peculiar social geography - would be to have all MKs elected from multi-seat geographical constituencies. You have both a somewhat more stable (in theory...) Knesset and something close to guaranteed representation (without need for pacts or tactical voting ploys) for most non-negligible elements in the most Kaleidoscopic of societies. Would also encourage stronger party structures and make it possible for the odd independent to get in if there's a particular local issue here or there, neither of which would be bad things. Not that it'll happen.

One particular issue in Israel is the political need to keep the voting system accessible to illiterate voters (like in India, albeit for different reasons there). The only country I can think of offhand with substantial illiteracy and an electoral system where voters don't just pick one option is Papua New Guinea, and it doesn't seem like that works very well.

Which population in Israel is illiterate?
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #494 on: November 02, 2022, 01:54:56 PM »

There is maybe a case for 2.5%, mostly eliminating total "joke" parties but enabling all non-negligible elements of the electorate to get some representation.

I think a better idea - especially given Israel's peculiar social geography - would be to have all MKs elected from multi-seat geographical constituencies. You have both a somewhat more stable (in theory...) Knesset and something close to guaranteed representation (without need for pacts or tactical voting ploys) for most non-negligible elements in the most Kaleidoscopic of societies. Would also encourage stronger party structures and make it possible for the odd independent to get in if there's a particular local issue here or there, neither of which would be bad things. Not that it'll happen.

One particular issue in Israel is the political need to keep the voting system accessible to illiterate voters (like in India, albeit for different reasons there). The only country I can think of offhand with substantial illiteracy and an electoral system where voters don't just pick one option is Papua New Guinea, and it doesn't seem like that works very well.

Which population in Israel is illiterate?

Recent immigrants.
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Linus Van Pelt
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« Reply #495 on: November 02, 2022, 02:02:15 PM »

There is maybe a case for 2.5%, mostly eliminating total "joke" parties but enabling all non-negligible elements of the electorate to get some representation.

I think a better idea - especially given Israel's peculiar social geography - would be to have all MKs elected from multi-seat geographical constituencies. You have both a somewhat more stable (in theory...) Knesset and something close to guaranteed representation (without need for pacts or tactical voting ploys) for most non-negligible elements in the most Kaleidoscopic of societies. Would also encourage stronger party structures and make it possible for the odd independent to get in if there's a particular local issue here or there, neither of which would be bad things. Not that it'll happen.

One particular issue in Israel is the political need to keep the voting system accessible to illiterate voters (like in India, albeit for different reasons there). The only country I can think of offhand with substantial illiteracy and an electoral system where voters don't just pick one option is Papua New Guinea, and it doesn't seem like that works very well.

Which population in Israel is illiterate?

Recent immigrants.

Do you just mean that they don't read Hebrew? Or that they are actually illiterate in their native language?
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #496 on: November 02, 2022, 02:05:18 PM »

The problem isn't the exact percentage of the threshold (of course a lower threshold will create less distortion while a higher threshold will encourage stronger parties, but that tradeoff exists everywhere and usually isn't as problematic as here). The problem is that Israeli politics are now clearly structured in terms of blocks, and the thresholds lead to effectively giving artificial bonuses or maluses to this or that block based on completely arbitrary factors like how the musical chairs of alliances among Arab parties or among the religious Zionist right worked out this time around. That has worked in Bibi's disfavor previously and it worked in his favor this time.

The point is that there needs to be a system that actually recognizes broad coalitions of parties as the primary unit for the distribution of seats. If a party doesn't make the threshold, fine. I think it's reasonable to not want a bunch of microparties represented. But there should be a way to ensure that those votes are redistributed to other parties with a similar constituency rather than being just wasted. This could be done pretty simply actually: Israel already uses vote-pooling agreements to allow parties to gain more seats - it wouldn't be hard at all to extend the system so parties that don't make the threshold can still choose to lend their votes to some other party.
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #497 on: November 02, 2022, 02:10:30 PM »

There is maybe a case for 2.5%, mostly eliminating total "joke" parties but enabling all non-negligible elements of the electorate to get some representation.

I think a better idea - especially given Israel's peculiar social geography - would be to have all MKs elected from multi-seat geographical constituencies. You have both a somewhat more stable (in theory...) Knesset and something close to guaranteed representation (without need for pacts or tactical voting ploys) for most non-negligible elements in the most Kaleidoscopic of societies. Would also encourage stronger party structures and make it possible for the odd independent to get in if there's a particular local issue here or there, neither of which would be bad things. Not that it'll happen.

One particular issue in Israel is the political need to keep the voting system accessible to illiterate voters (like in India, albeit for different reasons there). The only country I can think of offhand with substantial illiteracy and an electoral system where voters don't just pick one option is Papua New Guinea, and it doesn't seem like that works very well.

Which population in Israel is illiterate?

Recent immigrants.

Do you just mean that they don't read Hebrew? Or that they are actually illiterate in their native language?

The former: the crucial limitation here is the inability to read a ballot in Hebrew (or Arabic). In theory this could be overcome by providing ballots in a range of languages, but the method chosen is to designate parties with letters (in much the same way that parties have symbols in India) to make choosing easier.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #498 on: November 02, 2022, 03:00:03 PM »
« Edited: November 02, 2022, 03:08:19 PM by NUPES Enjoyer »

Assuming there are 600k total votes left (Israeli posters tell me if that's the right estimate?) and that the share of invalid votes among those is the same as in what's already counted, Meretz would need to win around 3.85% of what's left in order to pass the threshold. How likely would that be?
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Hnv1
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« Reply #499 on: November 02, 2022, 03:10:13 PM »

There is maybe a case for 2.5%, mostly eliminating total "joke" parties but enabling all non-negligible elements of the electorate to get some representation.

I think a better idea - especially given Israel's peculiar social geography - would be to have all MKs elected from multi-seat geographical constituencies. You have both a somewhat more stable (in theory...) Knesset and something close to guaranteed representation (without need for pacts or tactical voting ploys) for most non-negligible elements in the most Kaleidoscopic of societies. Would also encourage stronger party structures and make it possible for the odd independent to get in if there's a particular local issue here or there, neither of which would be bad things. Not that it'll happen.

One particular issue in Israel is the political need to keep the voting system accessible to illiterate voters (like in India, albeit for different reasons there). The only country I can think of offhand with substantial illiteracy and an electoral system where voters don't just pick one option is Papua New Guinea, and it doesn't seem like that works very well.

Which population in Israel is illiterate?

Recent immigrants.

Do you just mean that they don't read Hebrew? Or that they are actually illiterate in their native language?

The former: the crucial limitation here is the inability to read a ballot in Hebrew (or Arabic). In theory this could be overcome by providing ballots in a range of languages, but the method chosen is to designate parties with letters (in much the same way that parties have symbols in India) to make choosing easier.
This is a nonissue. The only segment of the voting population that has difficulty with voting as Russian pensioners. And YB usually sends them in with the ballot.

Back in the fifties and sixties, when an actual substantial amount of voters had very poor Hebrew they had no problems with PR systems and it was floated several times.

The German system fits Israel well. I'd be happy for 120 to be chosen on the national list with another 120 voted in districts but with an overall balance based on the popular vote
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