Israel 2022 election (November 1st)

[Hnv1]

It's a board customary rule, since the 2012 fiasco with Moufaz, that we do not start this thread until the Knesset officially dissolves!


This is the first election since I was eligible to vote that I really have no idea who I will vote for.

[Hnv1]

Is not Netanyahu being back as PM the most likely scenario if there really is an election?

The Bibi bloc does not have a majority in any poll, nor did he have a majority in the past 4 cycles. I don't believe he will get a majority this time as well

[Hnv1]

It's a board customary rule, since the 2012 fiasco with Moufaz, that we do not start this thread until the Knesset officially dissolves!


This is the first election since I was eligible to vote that I really have no idea who I will vote for.

Turnout is going to be epicly low.

We thought so in 2019B and 2020, and yet we were surprised. The stakes are high so voters will turn out.

[Hnv1]

Likud, Shas, UTJ and NZP polls around 60 seats. Add Yamina and Bibi is king Again. Add New Hope and or YB and we have around 75 seats.

Yamina will not run alone, NH as well. We will most likely see Yamina and NH merge with Kahana leading Yamina. And a slimmer option is for a triple merge with YB. neither of the three would join a Likud coalition under normal circumstances.

The alarmism is juvenile. Bibi didn't have a majority and he's not going to.

First poll this morning:
Likud 36
YA 20
NZ 10
B&W 8
Shas 7
Yamina 7
Labour 7
UTJ 6
JL 6
YB 5
NH 4
Raam 4
Meretz 0

A bit of an over poll for the coalition I guess. But this party map won't live to October. Beyond the centre-right merge, Meretz and Labour would have to decide their future. UTJ might split. JL might split. And so much more.

The threshold might be lowered to 2.5% again.

[Hnv1]

It's a board customary rule, since the 2012 fiasco with Moufaz, that we do not start this thread until the Knesset officially dissolves!


This is the first election since I was eligible to vote that I really have no idea who I will vote for.

\
I expressed my discomfort as I think this might be premature. There is an immense pressure on the nobodies of Yamina (anyone but Bennett and Kahana) and NH (anyone but Saar and Shir) to agree to a coalition under Bibi in the coming week.

We need to wait and see but as long as the Knesset didn't vote to dissolve in three hearings this is not final

[Hnv1]

Why might UTJ split? And why wont Yamina join Bibi?! Might Likud benefit from a merger between Yamina and JH?!

As always, during election cycle we get interest from people who don't know the political climate well. I suggest everyone who has a question starts by googling and only if things aren't clear raise it.

UTJ is a merger of two Ashkenaz Haredi parties, one for the Hassidic and one for the "Lithuanians". There's not a lot of love between them and they quarrel bitterly over money and influence.

Yamina is not a party anymore so as a group they're not going to do anything. Half of its members won't join a government under Bibi from the same reason New Hope and YB won't. They hate it and thinks he's toxic.
The JH isn't represented in the Knesset anymore. it ran with Yamina last time but might be a vessel for Shaked\Shikli this time.

[Hnv1]

Likud, Shas, UTJ and NZP polls around 60 seats. Add Yamina and Bibi is king Again. Add New Hope and or YB and we have around 75 seats.

Yamina will not run alone, NH as well. We will most likely see Yamina and NH merge with Kahana leading Yamina. And a slimmer option is for a triple merge with YB. neither of the three would join a Likud coalition under normal circumstances.

The alarmism is juvenile. Bibi didn't have a majority and he's not going to.

First poll this morning:
Likud 36
YA 20
NZ 10
B&W 8
Shas 7
Yamina 7
Labour 7
UTJ 6
JL 6
YB 5
NH 4
Raam 4
Meretz 0

A bit of an over poll for the coalition I guess. But this party map won't live to October. Beyond the centre-right merge, Meretz and Labour would have to decide their future. UTJ might split. JL might split. And so much more.

The threshold might be lowered to 2.5% again.

Isn't that the wrong way to resolve a fragmented Parliament? I mean, a 5% threshold might be the best course of action, right now.

Most parties care more about survival than resolving the crisis. Anyhow, after 2019A the risk became quite salient and even if the bar raises parties will ad hoc merge to yield the same standstill.

I also don't think a fragmented society like Israel should have such a high threshold that would prevents a lot of groups from being politically represented. Furthermore, the political standoff is a deep struggle that won't be resolved by twicking election laws or procedure. One side must come out of this victorious and ungracious in victory

[Hnv1]

At this point, who does Blue & White represent and what do they stand for (as opposed to, say, Yesh Atid)?

A bit less urban, they are stronger in the Moshavim. A bit older. Professional army men and veterans. Old hawkish Labour voters. young "apolitical" voters. etc.

YA tilt slightly more to the left and has a more urban and liberal vibe. A younger vibe altogether.

That's why we see a bigger vote shift from Meretz to YA, and from Labour to B&W than from any of the other combinations.

It will be interesting to see how Eisenkot's imminent entrance to YA will affect their "civilian" image.

The ideological differences are minor. Gantz seems to like to talk more about the Palestinian issue than Lapid, who prefers to stay in the social liberal issues ballpark. B&W has a more protectionist attitude, with MKs Bitton and Shuster lobbying for farmers and some interest groups (like army professionals). YA is more liberal and doesn't really cater to any interest group, well, part for the tech and finance industry.
B&W likes to talk about "security", YA likes to talk about society.

[Hnv1]

At this point, who does Blue & White represent and what do they stand for (as opposed to, say, Yesh Atid)?

A bit less urban, they are stronger in the Moshavim. A bit older. Professional army men and veterans. Old hawkish Labour voters. young "apolitical" voters. etc.

YA tilt slightly more to the left and has a more urban and liberal vibe. A younger vibe altogether.

That's why we see a bigger vote shift from Meretz to YA, and from Labour to B&W than from any of the other combinations.

It will be interesting to see how Eisenkot's imminent entrance to YA will affect their "civilian" image.

The ideological differences are minor. Gantz seems to like to talk more about the Palestinian issue than Lapid, who prefers to stay in the social liberal issues ballpark. B&W has a more protectionist attitude, with MKs Bitton and Shuster lobbying for farmers and some interest groups (like army professionals). YA is more liberal and doesn't really cater to any interest group, well, part for the tech and finance industry.
B&W likes to talk about "security", YA likes to talk about society.

I feel like Blue and White would be a natural coalition partner for Likud but for the fact that they do not trust Netanyahu as an individual. Yesh Atid on the other hand comes form a different secular, center-left tradition that does not mesh nearly as well with Likud and it's nationalist, right-wing stance, or with Likud's allies in the Haredi parties.

This is even more true for Yisrael Beiteinu, which was part of Bibi's coalition from 2009-2019. The solution for this crisis is for Likud to ditch Bibi as leader, or alternatively persuade enough floor-crossers to take the majority themselves. (Note that Bibi's alleged skill at negotiating has really fallen through: he had 60 seats at the April 2019 election without Liberman, so he needed just 1 more vote. After the September election, Gadi Yevarkan switched to Likud, and he had been courted extensively during that summer...but it all somehow came to naught.)

It is a known fact that the right wing parties is larger than the Bibi bloc and reaches 70 seats on average (it's not always easyo to classify some YA and B&W voters as centrist or leftist).

However, as I expressed in the past the old right/left division of Israeli politics is dead. This is a new party system between Nationalist-populists and supporters of liberal democracy (in a broad sense).

[Hnv1]

A barrage of polls. The Bibi bloc is between 55-60 but never 61. It seems the only way they squeeze the 61 is if 2/3 of Meretz\NH\Yamina will be below the threshold.
Meretz are the most fragile with voters very displeased but Michaeli of Labour is against any union. She still thinks she could be a future PM and a merger would push her to the left. She may have not gotten the memo but no one finds her PM material or centrist.
Yamina and NH will merge or rum-Yamina will join NH, I have no doubt about it.

Maariv poll:
Likud 34
YA 21
NZ 9
B&W 8
Shas 7
Labour 7
UTJ 7
JL 6
YB 5
Yamina 4
NH 4
Ra'am 4
Meretz 4

Parties that will hold a members primaries: Likud (only for the list), Labour, Meretz, Ra'am

that's it. YA are planning their first primaries in the next cycle

[Hnv1]

A barrage of polls. The Bibi bloc is between 55-60 but never 61. It seems the only way they squeeze the 61 is if 2/3 of Meretz\NH\Yamina will be below the threshold.
Meretz are the most fragile with voters very displeased but Michaeli of Labour is against any union. She still thinks she could be a future PM and a merger would push her to the left. She may have not gotten the memo but no one finds her PM material or centrist.
Yamina and NH will merge or rum-Yamina will join NH, I have no doubt about it.

Maariv poll:
Likud 34
YA 21
NZ 9
B&W 8
Shas 7
Labour 7
UTJ 7
JL 6
YB 5
Yamina 4
NH 4
Ra'am 4
Meretz 4

Parties that will hold a members primaries: Likud (only for the list), Labour, Meretz, Ra'am

that's it. YA are planning their first primaries in the next cycle

This is just a redux of the (very well-hung) September 2019/2020 elections, right? Unless YB rejoins the right bloc, the only solution is a grand coalition. Ra'am-to-Yamina isn't an option anymore, either.

Much as Bibi stayed PM through all of the elections which didn't return a government, does Lapid remain in power until the next election which actually produces a government? That could take quite a while -- seems to me very plausibly years.

Yes, the government remains in place until a new one is sworn in, there is no vacuum of authority in Israeli constitutional law. The common law includes restrictions on interim governments according to different SC precedents but if we really won’t have a government for two years I suppose they will have to give Lapid more authority.

There is one lacunae and that is what happens if Yamina evaporates and Bennett dies/resigns from government all together. Technically Lapid can’t fire NH/Yamina ministers but without an alternate PM it’s not entirely clear what will happen.

I think that either Bibi forms a government or Lapid forms a minority government with Ra’am and the JL supporting from the outside. If we do reach a sixth cycle I don’t think Bibi will lead Likud going into it.

[Hnv1]

Labour leadership primaries scheduled for July 18 (expected to win). Meanwhile Michaeli rules out any merger with Meretz and thinks she's future PM material.

lord have mercy

[Hnv1]

After a bit of procrastination with the opposition still trying to form an alternative government without an election they did the arithmetic and understood it's futile. The Knesset will dissolve tomorrow and Lapid will be PM on midnight (I'm still of the opinion he should be listed on the Israeli list of PMs and should be treated like Yigal Alon).

The election date is still on debate. The opposition wants October 25 as it's before the end of the Yeshiva boys semester break. The coalition would prefer it be scheduled on November 1\7

[Hnv1]

Dissolving the house might be delayed until tomorrow.

Bennett will soon announce he will not run in the coming election cycle. Yamina won’t either I suppose. Matan Kahane will join NH and perhaps a more centrist party, the rest will have to find their own way,

[Hnv1]

With Shaked taking over the party's leadership from Bennett, the fiction that Yamina was somehow part of the anti-Netanyahu bloc should finally be snuffed out. The latest poll gives Bibi & co. 63 seats.

Suspicious poll done ex ante the announcement.

I don't think Shaked has this much support, she hardly has a party. Kahane is already on the way out to either B&W or NH. Kara is heading to YB it seems. Silman and Orbach are knee deep in Likud. Shikli has to run alone.

I think Shaked will either concede and take some 5th place with Smotric or withdraw. There isn't 3.25% of the voters who want her by herself, we've been here on 2019B

[Hnv1]

Dissolved. The GE will be held on November 1 so we need to correct the OP.

Lapid will become PM tonight at midnight (for reasons I can't quite understand it's not on the spot)

[Hnv1]

First poll after the dissolving of the house (Maariv):

Likud 34
YA 21
Smotric 10
B&W 9
Shas 8
UTJ 7
JL 6
NH 5
YB 5
Yamina 4
Ra'am 4
Meretz 0 (2.2%)

Likud bloc is on 59 with Yamina it's 63. Meretz are below the threshold, they're even below the old threshold. If they're out of the game the Bibi bloc loses 1-2 seats.

[Hnv1]

Wait...again?! Is this because of how unstable the anti-Bibi coalition is and that they don't really agree on anything besides hating Bibi?

If by hating Bibi you mean wanting a liberal democracy with a rule of law then yeah they don’t agree on anything more

[Hnv1]

Unsurprising, but I see Lapid's campaign strategy is definitely going to be 'I am the Prime Minister '.

Lapid isn't going to campaign much himself. He's going to be antithetic to Bibi and act like he's PM and too busy for elections.
The main aim is to get YA to 20-25 seats area whilst keeping Meretz and Labour on 4 seats at most, or best still merge, and more importantly, keep B&W under 10 seats.
A big merger in the centre-right that will put Gantz with 15 seats would be his nightmare.

The Likud primaries are going to be delicious. 50 ego maniacs arguing over 20seats (the Likud system allocates spots on the list to regional candidates who aren't MKs yet). Edelstein dropped out of the leadership primaries so I don't think they'll be held.

Labour leadership primaries are going to be an electoral type event, the list primaries might be interesting as Michaeli will try putting more of her people in.

Meretz will have leadership primaries. It seems Golan will go against Horowitz with Zandberg joining the mix. zero enthusiasm for either. The list primaries will be as dull as ever with no interesting new candidate.

Smotric party is going to have primaries as well. Dov Halbertal, a anti-zionist Haredi announced he's running against Smotric for laughs.

[Hnv1]

Smotric party is going to have primaries as well. Dov Halbertal, a anti-zionist Haredi announced he's running against Smotric for laughs.

Dov Halbertal Used to be very left wing, but last year he changed his mind and now his opinions seem to be mostly in line with the rest of the Religious Zionist party.

Yet last I checked he was still a Haredi though. But I suppose the differences are beginning to blur at the edges.

His brother is such a nice man

[Hnv1]

I think it's rather clear looking at it from an outsider's perspective that Netanyahu will have the seats to become Prime Minister if he doesn't do anything stupid between now and November.

That is my very outsider amateurish view as well.  The old opposition narrative was "Netanyahu is the source of instability and if Netanyahu is out of power then Israel politics and stabilize".  Well, an anti-Netanyahu was installed and there was no stability. The only way to a stable government now is to vote Likud.

How is a massive constitutional crisis and a direct confrontation with the judiciary a "stable government"? A Likud government is dead set on causing massive mayhem, if it weren't so he'd be surging in the polls instead of hitting the ceiling of 35 constantly.

[Hnv1]

I think it's rather clear looking at it from an outsider's perspective that Netanyahu will have the seats to become Prime Minister if he doesn't do anything stupid between now and November.

That is my very outsider amateurish view as well.  The old opposition narrative was "Netanyahu is the source of instability and if Netanyahu is out of power then Israel politics and stabilize".  Well, an anti-Netanyahu was installed and there was no stability. The only way to a stable government now is to vote Likud.

How is a massive constitutional crisis and a direct confrontation with the judiciary a "stable government"? A Likud government is dead set on causing massive mayhem, if it weren't so he'd be surging in the polls instead of hitting the ceiling of 35 constantly.

Yeah, but that should get Likud enough seats to form a government with one or two coalition partners, and they could improve on that if they ditch Netanyahu for someone else.

That's not going to happen. Even if the Haredi finally renounce him his position in Likud is rock solid for as long as he wants, and that length will equal the time until his trial is over at least.

In todays new: Yuval Steinitz (Likud) retires. He was one of the more experienced and I suppose moderate figures in Likud. Was definitely up for a senior ministerial role.
I speculate that the reason is that his wife is a justice on the supreme court and he wouldn't want, or couldn't, join in with the rest of Likud in the imminent clash of branches.

Labour's general secretary, Eran Hermoni, announced he will challenge Michaeli for the chairman role. Hermoni is a residue of old labour elected when Herzog was still leader, not very popular, and I'm not sure what he wants. Michaeli screwed him over by pushing him to the 11th spot on the list last time around. Not doing himself any favors here. He announced that if he wins he will seek to bring in someone else to be the party's candidate for PM, I suppose some ex-general.

[Hnv1]

That's not going to happen. Even if the Haredi finally renounce him his position in Likud is rock solid for as long as he wants, and that length will equal the time until his trial is over at least.

That reminds me.  How is the Netanyahu trial going?  Is there a risk he will be forced out of politics in the coming year or two due to a guilty verdict or is the legal process going to be very long which would mean he can stay on as PM or LoP for as long as he wants?

They began hearing testimonies on the second of his indictments. So a verdict is pretty far off, and with the inevitable appeal even further. We're talking 2-3 years I believe.

My opinion is that the bribe charges as weakened dramatically and I don't think they can prove a mens rea. But the charges of Breach of Trust are solid.

[Hnv1]

In other esoteric news:
MK Yair Golan (former general, constant foot in his mouth, much less pro Palestinian in rhetoric than Meretz) is running for Meretz leadership against Nitzan Horovitz.
Party chairman Eran Hermoni is running for Labor leadership against Merav Michaeli. Seems to be running to absorb Labor into KL. Electing a pale party man would obviously be the death of the party (not that Michaeli's "I'm going to be PM" line isn't threatening the threshold).

Hermoni has no chance.
Golan is well despised by most Meretz members, but the socialist wing (that crowned Horowitz) might crown him to allow a more moderate meretz and appeal to Labour for a merger. Judging by the results of the internal elections there last week it seems the socialists have lost some ground in the party. Unless Zandberg spoils the vote Horowitz is set to win as the lesser evil

[Hnv1]

That's not going to happen. Even if the Haredi finally renounce him his position in Likud is rock solid for as long as he wants, and that length will equal the time until his trial is over at least.

That reminds me.  How is the Netanyahu trial going?  Is there a risk he will be forced out of politics in the coming year or two due to a guilty verdict or is the legal process going to be very long which would mean he can stay on as PM or LoP for as long as he wants?

They began hearing testimonies on the second of his indictments. So a verdict is pretty far off, and with the inevitable appeal even further. We're talking 2-3 years I believe.

My opinion is that the bribe charges as weakened dramatically and I don't think they can prove a mens rea. But the charges of Breach of Trust are solid.

Are we talking a conviction with disgrace?

Although a misdemeanor, yes according to past court decisions. But again I highly doubt we'll get there and Bibi will have a very solid public case against a conviction with disgrace when the corruption case so terribly collapsed.