Israel 2022 election (November 1st)

[Walmart_shopper]

Leaders of government parties have decided to support a motion to disperse the Knesset and go to new elections. The date hasn't been set, but they'll likely fall on October 25th (depending on the Hewish holiday schedule). Yair Lapid will be prime minister until a new government is formed.

[Hnv1]

It's a board customary rule, since the 2012 fiasco with Moufaz, that we do not start this thread until the Knesset officially dissolves!


This is the first election since I was eligible to vote that I really have no idea who I will vote for.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Only unexpected thing there is that they survived so long without early elections.

[Logical]

Time to bring back the classic.

[jaichind]

Is not Netanyahu being back as PM the most likely scenario if there really is an election?

[Hnv1]

Is not Netanyahu being back as PM the most likely scenario if there really is an election?

The Bibi bloc does not have a majority in any poll, nor did he have a majority in the past 4 cycles. I don't believe he will get a majority this time as well

[Walmart_shopper]

Is not Netanyahu being back as PM the most likely scenario if there really is an election?

Yes. Yes it is.

[Walmart_shopper]

It's a board customary rule, since the 2012 fiasco with Moufaz, that we do not start this thread until the Knesset officially dissolves!


This is the first election since I was eligible to vote that I really have no idea who I will vote for.

Turnout is going to be epicly low.

[Hnv1]

It's a board customary rule, since the 2012 fiasco with Moufaz, that we do not start this thread until the Knesset officially dissolves!


This is the first election since I was eligible to vote that I really have no idea who I will vote for.

Turnout is going to be epicly low.

We thought so in 2019B and 2020, and yet we were surprised. The stakes are high so voters will turn out.

[Angel of Death]

Netanyahu has a clear coalition majority in the polls if you add Yamina, which only formed the current coalition because they came up short before.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

[If my soul was made of stone]

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Time to bring back the classic.

Every single detail about this is absolutely extraordinary.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

It's a board customary rule, since the 2012 fiasco with Moufaz, that we do not start this thread until the Knesset officially dissolves!


This is the first election since I was eligible to vote that I really have no idea who I will vote for.

Turnout is going to be epicly low.

Are you suggesting the choice between "Guy currently on trial for public corruption" and "Most obviously unstable partnership since Molotov and Ribbentrop" isn't an appealing one?

[FredLindq]

Likud, Shas, UTJ and NZP polls around 60 seats. Add Yamina and Bibi is king Again. Add New Hope and or YB and we have around 75 seats.

[Walmart_shopper]

It's a board customary rule, since the 2012 fiasco with Moufaz, that we do not start this thread until the Knesset officially dissolves!


This is the first election since I was eligible to vote that I really have no idea who I will vote for.

Turnout is going to be epicly low.

Are you suggesting the choice between "Guy currently on trial for public corruption" and "Most obviously unstable partnership since Molotov and Ribbentrop" isn't an appealing one?

Arab turnout is polling at about 40% lol. It's almost as though watching an Arab party allowing itself to be used primarily as a prop for the occupation and to empower the leader of a right wing settler party is kind of dispiriting and tends to eat away at trust in the political system. It will be funny when Likud is the largest party in the Arab sector, though.

[Hnv1]

Likud, Shas, UTJ and NZP polls around 60 seats. Add Yamina and Bibi is king Again. Add New Hope and or YB and we have around 75 seats.

Yamina will not run alone, NH as well. We will most likely see Yamina and NH merge with Kahana leading Yamina. And a slimmer option is for a triple merge with YB. neither of the three would join a Likud coalition under normal circumstances.

The alarmism is juvenile. Bibi didn't have a majority and he's not going to.

First poll this morning:
Likud 36
YA 20
NZ 10
B&W 8
Shas 7
Yamina 7
Labour 7
UTJ 6
JL 6
YB 5
NH 4
Raam 4
Meretz 0

A bit of an over poll for the coalition I guess. But this party map won't live to October. Beyond the centre-right merge, Meretz and Labour would have to decide their future. UTJ might split. JL might split. And so much more.

The threshold might be lowered to 2.5% again.

[Hnv1]

It's a board customary rule, since the 2012 fiasco with Moufaz, that we do not start this thread until the Knesset officially dissolves!


This is the first election since I was eligible to vote that I really have no idea who I will vote for.

\
I expressed my discomfort as I think this might be premature. There is an immense pressure on the nobodies of Yamina (anyone but Bennett and Kahana) and NH (anyone but Saar and Shir) to agree to a coalition under Bibi in the coming week.

We need to wait and see but as long as the Knesset didn't vote to dissolve in three hearings this is not final

[FredLindq]

Why might UTJ split? And why wont Yamina join Bibi?! Might Likud benefit from a merger between Yamina and JH?!

[Hnv1]

Why might UTJ split? And why wont Yamina join Bibi?! Might Likud benefit from a merger between Yamina and JH?!

As always, during election cycle we get interest from people who don't know the political climate well. I suggest everyone who has a question starts by googling and only if things aren't clear raise it.

UTJ is a merger of two Ashkenaz Haredi parties, one for the Hassidic and one for the "Lithuanians". There's not a lot of love between them and they quarrel bitterly over money and influence.

Yamina is not a party anymore so as a group they're not going to do anything. Half of its members won't join a government under Bibi from the same reason New Hope and YB won't. They hate it and thinks he's toxic.
The JH isn't represented in the Knesset anymore. it ran with Yamina last time but might be a vessel for Shaked\Shikli this time.

[Mike88]

Likud, Shas, UTJ and NZP polls around 60 seats. Add Yamina and Bibi is king Again. Add New Hope and or YB and we have around 75 seats.

Yamina will not run alone, NH as well. We will most likely see Yamina and NH merge with Kahana leading Yamina. And a slimmer option is for a triple merge with YB. neither of the three would join a Likud coalition under normal circumstances.

The alarmism is juvenile. Bibi didn't have a majority and he's not going to.

First poll this morning:
Likud 36
YA 20
NZ 10
B&W 8
Shas 7
Yamina 7
Labour 7
UTJ 6
JL 6
YB 5
NH 4
Raam 4
Meretz 0

A bit of an over poll for the coalition I guess. But this party map won't live to October. Beyond the centre-right merge, Meretz and Labour would have to decide their future. UTJ might split. JL might split. And so much more.

The threshold might be lowered to 2.5% again.

Isn't that the wrong way to resolve a fragmented Parliament? I mean, a 5% threshold might be the best course of action, right now.

[Estrella]

Likud, Shas, UTJ and NZP polls around 60 seats. Add Yamina and Bibi is king Again. Add New Hope and or YB and we have around 75 seats.

Yamina will not run alone, NH as well. We will most likely see Yamina and NH merge with Kahana leading Yamina. And a slimmer option is for a triple merge with YB. neither of the three would join a Likud coalition under normal circumstances.

The alarmism is juvenile. Bibi didn't have a majority and he's not going to.

First poll this morning:
Likud 36
YA 20
NZ 10
B&W 8
Shas 7
Yamina 7
Labour 7
UTJ 6
JL 6
YB 5
NH 4
Raam 4
Meretz 0

A bit of an over poll for the coalition I guess. But this party map won't live to October. Beyond the centre-right merge, Meretz and Labour would have to decide their future. UTJ might split. JL might split. And so much more.

The threshold might be lowered to 2.5% again.

Isn't that the wrong way to resolve a fragmented Parliament? I mean, a 5% threshold might be the best course of action, right now.

My sweet summer child, would Israel have ended up here if their politicians were inclined to follow the best course of action?

[Hnv1]

Likud, Shas, UTJ and NZP polls around 60 seats. Add Yamina and Bibi is king Again. Add New Hope and or YB and we have around 75 seats.

Yamina will not run alone, NH as well. We will most likely see Yamina and NH merge with Kahana leading Yamina. And a slimmer option is for a triple merge with YB. neither of the three would join a Likud coalition under normal circumstances.

The alarmism is juvenile. Bibi didn't have a majority and he's not going to.

First poll this morning:
Likud 36
YA 20
NZ 10
B&W 8
Shas 7
Yamina 7
Labour 7
UTJ 6
JL 6
YB 5
NH 4
Raam 4
Meretz 0

A bit of an over poll for the coalition I guess. But this party map won't live to October. Beyond the centre-right merge, Meretz and Labour would have to decide their future. UTJ might split. JL might split. And so much more.

The threshold might be lowered to 2.5% again.

Isn't that the wrong way to resolve a fragmented Parliament? I mean, a 5% threshold might be the best course of action, right now.

Most parties care more about survival than resolving the crisis. Anyhow, after 2019A the risk became quite salient and even if the bar raises parties will ad hoc merge to yield the same standstill.

I also don't think a fragmented society like Israel should have such a high threshold that would prevents a lot of groups from being politically represented. Furthermore, the political standoff is a deep struggle that won't be resolved by twicking election laws or procedure. One side must come out of this victorious and ungracious in victory

[Cassius]

At this point, who does Blue & White represent and what do they stand for (as opposed to, say, Yesh Atid)?

[warandwar]

At this point, who does Blue & White represent and what do they stand for (as opposed to, say, Yesh Atid)?

I think same voters, stratified by age.