Israel 2022 election (November 1st)

[Angel of Death]

Netanyahu has a clear coalition majority in the polls if you add Yamina, which only formed the current coalition because they came up short before.

[Angel of Death]

With Shaked taking over the party's leadership from Bennett, the fiction that Yamina was somehow part of the anti-Netanyahu bloc should finally be snuffed out. The latest poll gives Bibi & co. 63 seats.

[Angel of Death]

why "zionist spirit" (if seats) couldn't support a Bibi gov ?

It's really hard to see how they won't, if it puts Bibi over the top.

Right now, there is an ongoing streak of polls where either they can give him that majority - whenever they pass the threshold - or the existing Bibi bloc gets enough seats on its own - when they don't - and that's even with all present anti-Netanyahu parties still making it in in all those polls.

[Angel of Death]

One scenario, which I haven't seen discussed and don't know the plausibility of, is that Bibi does get his majority (with or without Zionist Spirit), but thinks that actually having the Religious Zionists in his government isn't worth all the trouble and just uses them to try to blackmail Gantz into joining him again. In light of that, it's interesting to speculate how the merger with New Hope affects the likelihood of such a thing happening.

[Angel of Death]

Apparently RZ and Otzma are running together after all - Ben Gvir published a statement with this message.

Likely list:
1. Smotrich
2. Ben Gvir
3. Ofir Sofer (RZ)
4. Orit Strook (RZ)
5. Yitzhak Weisserlof (Kahanist)
6. Simcha Rotman (RZ)
7. Kahanist
8. Michal Waldinger (RZ)
9. Kahanist
10. Kahanist
11. Offered to Noam (single issue homophobes)

If anything, this looks like a raw deal, considering that Otzma Yehudit has actually been doing better than the Religious Zionists in all recent polls where they've been polled separately, with the latter actually not even making it in in one poll.

[Angel of Death]

According to this, only a plurality of 48% of Israelis (and that must presumably include Arab citizens) oppose Ben Gvir being part of the government.

[Angel of Death]

The polls are suspiciously similar to each other, even across different firms. One would expect the seats per party to fluctuate more just from statistical noise alone.

[Angel of Death]

The polls are suspiciously similar to each other, even across different firms. One would expect the seats per party to fluctuate more just from statistical noise alone.

Or after five consecutive elections people are pretty determined about what they want and don’t need another reflection. The real results will differ in seats only because of Arab turnout, the number of Jewish swing voters is minimal

Even from a theoretical completely fixed electorate, samples should still show a modest amount of fluctuation. Herding from the pollsters should definitely not be ruled out here.

[Angel of Death]

It might be that there is an accelerationist motive behind this decision. A Netanyahu-Ben-Gvir government could generate a bit of a backlash internationally.

[Angel of Death]

The scenario in which Netanyahu gets his majority can be further divided depending on whether or not he could substitute the Religious Zionists with National Unity even if he wanted to.

[Angel of Death]

If the parties of the current coalition are at 57 seats and Hadash-Ta'al gets 4, what is the chance that they are added to the coalition? Would a 61 seat majority dependent on 2 Arab parties be a risk worth taking?

A formal coalition is out of the question and even a confidence-and-supply-like arrangement would be extremely unlikely, as Hadash-Ta'al would have to explicitly vote in favor of everything rather than be allowed to tactically abstain on certain votes.
The deteriorating situation in the West Bank isn't helping things either.

[Angel of Death]

Considering Bibi's age (he is 73), has he made any statements about serving a full term if he becomes PM again?

His father lived to be 102.

[Angel of Death]

What would the seat distribution have been if Meretz had made it in?

[Angel of Death]

What would the seat distribution have been if Meretz had made it in?

62-58

I assume that there wouldn't have been a Likud-National Unity-Shas-UTJ majority then.

[Angel of Death]

What would the seat distribution have been if Meretz had made it in?

62-58

I assume that there wouldn't have been a Likud-National Unity-Shas-UTJ majority then.

There would be. A majority of 62 seats

That's the case now. I don't see how, had Meretz made it in, the math would allow RZ losing two seats and NU none.

[Angel of Death]

What would the seat distribution have been if Meretz had made it in?

62-58

I assume that there wouldn't have been a Likud-National Unity-Shas-UTJ majority then.

There would be. A majority of 62 seats

That's the case now. I don't see how, had Meretz made it in, the math would allow RZ losing two seats and NU none.

The case now is a majority of 64 not 62.

Then you've been misreading this the whole time, because I have been talking about the combined number of seats for the Bibi bloc minus RZ plus National Unity. Alternatively, you could just state the number of seats for each party had Meretz made it in.