Israel 2022 election (November 1st)

[jaichind]

Amazing what a 3.25% threshold vs a 3.0% threshold makes.

[Hnv1]

So basically, even if Meretz get the 3.85% of the double envelopes they require, Bibi would have 62-3 seats. I assume the coalition talks would go quite fast, although Herzog will try to float some sort of unity government.

The opposition needs to realign to prepare themselves for the coming battle. YA and B&W need to merge into a big-tent centrist party. Michaeli needs to be shown the door, and the new leader of Labour to invite most of Meretz to a new SD party (Galon also has to resign).
The Arab parties need to decide what they want to do as political entities. But I don't think there's any viable alternative bar for creating one big list again.

Afterward, we need to build a ground game. Parliamentary and street action to combat the government. Protests, strikes, and counteractions.

Will there be a sixth election soon if things fall apart for Bibi or will this be the last for a while?

I believe this government will hold for at least 2 years

So what exactly went wrong for the anti-Bibi camp?

In the election? poorly organized, spread out over too many parties, with very little enthusiasm.
In government? Yamina was a very poor faction Bennett had very little influence over. Had he picked more loyal men, the project could have endured quite longer.


Worth noting that when you deduct all the nonsense parties, the pro-Bibi bloc got 50.05% while the anti-Bibi bloc got 49.95%. The threshold gave Bibi the win

[Tekken_Guy]

So basically, even if Meretz get the 3.85% of the double envelopes they require, Bibi would have 62-3 seats. I assume the coalition talks would go quite fast, although Herzog will try to float some sort of unity government.

The opposition needs to realign to prepare themselves for the coming battle. YA and B&W need to merge into a big-tent centrist party. Michaeli needs to be shown the door, and the new leader of Labour to invite most of Meretz to a new SD party (Galon also has to resign).
The Arab parties need to decide what they want to do as political entities. But I don't think there's any viable alternative bar for creating one big list again.

Afterward, we need to build a ground game. Parliamentary and street action to combat the government. Protests, strikes, and counteractions.

Will there be a sixth election soon if things fall apart for Bibi or will this be the last for a while?

I believe this government will hold for at least 2 years

So what exactly went wrong for the anti-Bibi camp?

In the election? poorly organized, spread out over too many parties, with very little enthusiasm.
In government? Yamina was a very poor faction Bennett had very little influence over. Had he picked more loyal men, the project could have endured quite longer.


Worth noting that when you deduct all the nonsense parties, the pro-Bibi bloc got 50.05% while the anti-Bibi bloc got 49.95%. The threshold gave Bibi the win

Anyway will Meretz make it?

[Hnv1]

They need around 3.9% of the double envelopes. I won't put their chances above 1/4

[Tekken_Guy]

Also none of the polls showed the Bibi bloc getting near 65, most had them right at a bare majority.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Also none of the polls showed the Bibi bloc getting near 65, most had them right at a bare majority.

The polls had Meretz passing. With such tiny differences, the polls were pretty damn accurate.

[Tekken_Guy]

Also none of the polls showed the Bibi bloc getting near 65, most had them right at a bare majority.

The polls had Meretz passing. With such tiny differences, the polls were pretty damn accurate.

Yet not a single poll predicted Meretz wouldn’t make it. I wonder if higher-than-expected turnout from right wingers pulled the threshold above Meretz.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Yet not a single poll predicted Meretz wouldn’t make it. I wonder if higher-than-expected turnout from right wingers pulled the threshold above Meretz.

It's routine to round figures upwards in polling so that doesn't actually mean a lot: by definition a party regularly polling four seats is always in danger of missing the threshold. It's unfortunate, but Meretz have been skating around the threshold for a while (hardly surprising as they had been below the present threshold once under the old, lower, threshold) and luck can't hold forever, probably. Even if they do make it back in the end this ought to lead to a fairly fundamental strategic re-think.

[Umengus]

Also none of the polls showed the Bibi bloc getting near 65, most had them right at a bare majority.

The polls had Meretz passing. With such tiny differences, the polls were pretty damn accurate.

Yet not a single poll predicted Meretz wouldn’t make it. I wonder if higher-than-expected turnout from right wingers pulled the threshold above Meretz.

righ wingers... and arabs too.

[Umengus]

Amazing what a 3.25% threshold vs a 3.0% threshold makes.

cfr too april 2019, when Bennett fails at 3,22 %. Would have changed lots of things.

[Mike88]

There seems to be around 800,000 ballots left to count. Any idea where they may come from?

[crals]

A bit late to complain about it but that 3.25% threshold really is ridiculous. Not only is it a strange number but considering how fragmented Israeli politics are it's too high.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A bit late to complain about it but that 3.25% threshold really is ridiculous. Not only is it a strange number but considering how fragmented Israeli politics are it's too high.

This true, but the consistent failure of the anti-Netanyahu parties to properly realize the implications is no one's fault but their own. One might hope that losing an election entirely because of that might change attitudes a little on that point, but on past form we should probably only believe it when we actually see it.

[danny]

There seems to be around 800,000 ballots left to count. Any idea where they may come from?

It's mostly the double envelopes left now. So soldiers, prisoners, special disability polling places, hospitals and embassy workers.

[danny]

4.134M votes counted

Likud: 23.32%
Yesh Atid: 17.98%
RZP: 10.32%
National unity: 8.94%
Shas: 8.41%
UTJ: 6.16%
Beitenu: 4.35%
Ra'am: 4.28%
Hadash-Ta'al: 3.87%
Labour: 3.57%
----3.25% threshold----
Meretz: 3.19%
Balad: 3.01%
JH: 1.17%

[Oryxslayer]

There seems to be around 800,000 ballots left to count. Any idea where they may come from?

It's mostly the double envelopes left now. So soldiers, prisoners, special disability polling places, hospitals and embassy workers.

Last time, the double envelope category in the results sheet - which might not have all of the votes, some might be in other areas - gave Meretz 5% of the vote, outperforming their national results. So they still have a chance. The Arab parties combined though got less of this category then Meretz, so a lot would need to break in Balad's favor.

[danny]

There seems to be around 800,000 ballots left to count. Any idea where they may come from?

It's mostly the double envelopes left now. So soldiers, prisoners, special disability polling places, hospitals and embassy workers.

Last time, the double envelope category in the results sheet - which might not have all of the votes, some might be in other areas - gave Meretz 5% of the vote, outperforming their national results. So they still have a chance. The Arab parties combined though got less of this category then Meretz, so a lot would need to break in Balad's favor.

Balad are done, the only question now is Meretz.

[Antonio the Sixth]

F**king hell

[CumbrianLefty]

Amazing what a 3.25% threshold vs a 3.0% threshold makes.

So it was previously 3% then? Why the change if so??

[Estrella]

Amazing what a 3.25% threshold vs a 3.0% threshold makes.

So it was previously 3% then? Why the change if so??

It wasn't, it's just 3% would be a much more sensible number.

Until the elections for the 13th Knesset in 1992, a party had to receive at least 1% of the votes in order to secure representation in parliament. Leading up to those elections, the electoral threshold was raised to 1.5%. In May 2004 (16th Knesset) the electoral threshold was raised to 2%, and on March 11, 2014 (19th Knesset), the threshold was increased to 3.25%.

[CumbrianLefty]

I actually think a threshold of 5% (as in Germany) may be a bit too high.

There is maybe a case for 2.5%, mostly eliminating total "joke" parties but enabling all non-negligible elements of the electorate to get some representation.

[Octowakandi]

Nobody really seemed upset about the threshold before when it knocked New Right a couple elections ago. Be wary in thinking it would only help the left to lower the threshold.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Damn this is a disappointing result. Hope Meretz has enough votes left to claw themselves over the threshold, but it hardly matters when Netanyahu is going to be in power again with an extreme-right coalition.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Fun fact: only 9 out of 62-65 MKs in the right wing coalition will be women

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Fun fact: only 9 out of 62-65 MKs in the right wing coalition will be women

That's religious fundamentalism for you.