Israel 2022 election (November 1st)
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Author Topic: Israel 2022 election (November 1st)  (Read 33714 times)
DavidB.
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« Reply #500 on: November 02, 2022, 03:18:17 PM »
« edited: November 02, 2022, 04:28:47 PM by DavidB. »

Ironic how Ben Gvir managed to unite settlers and non-settler, non-Orthodox voters in a way Bennett tried but never could. Of course, the non-settlers Bennett was aiming for were a very different segment of society than the ones Ben Gvir got...

Who was Bennett aiming for? IIRC in 2013 he was chasing disappointed middle-class voters (Likud-voting Mizrahi social climbers?), like a right-wing mirror image of Lapid. Is that correct, and could it have worked?
Bennett seemed to aim for middle-class people, mostly in the center of the country (where he himself is from), who make decent money and perhaps find Likud/Bibi too "populist" or too corrupt, but find Zionism to be important (but not in an overly jingoistic way) and could be swayed with almost Ben Shapiro-esque Facts And Logic-like arguments, such as Bennett's plan for the West Bank. I'm thinking of Ashkenazim more than of Mizrahim here. Anyway, this never really succeeded. Perhaps this demographic doesn't exist in big numbers, or they simply weren't swayed by Bennett. The "right-wing mirror image of Lapid" remark is exactly right, I think.

The "Mizrahi social climbers" demographic was more Kahlon's niche (almost forgot about him... feels like a lifetime ago he was around). I actually do think Yamina managed to attract some of these voters in 2021. Most likely they voted Likud or Gantz this time around.

The Indian experience suggests that, anyway, FPTP does not automatically produce stable parliamentary majorities and stable governments.
An experience closer to home (particularly yours...) suggests the same... Grin
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All Along The Watchtower
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« Reply #501 on: November 02, 2022, 03:22:18 PM »

Netanyahu really is a survivor huh
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mileslunn
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« Reply #502 on: November 02, 2022, 03:27:02 PM »

How has Netanyahu lasted so long.  Even when parties stay in power a long time, I've found usually after a decade in power, people get tired of person.  Of wealthy countries, I believe Mark Rutte in Netherlands only won who has been in power more than a decade and interestingly enough Netherlands like Israel is very fragmented in terms of parties.
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All Along The Watchtower
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« Reply #503 on: November 02, 2022, 04:04:51 PM »

How has Netanyahu lasted so long.  Even when parties stay in power a long time, I've found usually after a decade in power, people get tired of person.  Of wealthy countries, I believe Mark Rutte in Netherlands only won who has been in power more than a decade and interestingly enough Netherlands like Israel is very fragmented in terms of parties.

I imagine, in addition to the fragmentation of Bibi’s opponents, it has something to do with Ariel Sharon having an incapacitating stroke at a most inopportune time and Ehud Olmert being criminally corrupt and weak on national security in many ways—never a good thing to be in Israeli politics, obviously.

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danny
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« Reply #504 on: November 02, 2022, 04:28:59 PM »

4.281M votes counted

Likud: 23.38%
Yesh Atid: 17.89%
RZP: 10.33%
National unity: 8.92%
Shas: 8.37%
UTJ: 6.1%
Beitenu: 4.36%
Ra'am: 4.33%
Hadash-Ta'al: 3.97%
Labour: 3.55%
----3.25% threshold----
Meretz: 3.17%
Balad: 3.04%
JH: 1.16%
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Nathan
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« Reply #505 on: November 02, 2022, 04:44:32 PM »



'Nuff said.
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #506 on: November 02, 2022, 05:12:53 PM »

What exactly changes depending on Meretz entering or not?
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Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom
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« Reply #507 on: November 02, 2022, 05:17:11 PM »

What exactly changes depending on Meretz entering or not?

Right now, a 0.1% increase in vote would increase their seats from 0 to 4.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #508 on: November 02, 2022, 05:20:08 PM »

4.288M votes counted

Likud: 23.38%
Yesh Atid: 17.89%
RZP: 10.34%
National unity: 8.92%
Shas: 8.37%
UTJ: 6.09%
Beitenu: 4.35%
Ra'am: 4.33%
Hadash-Ta'al: 3.97%
Labour: 3.55%
----3.25% threshold----
Meretz: 3.17%
Balad: 3.04%
JH: 1.16%
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #509 on: November 02, 2022, 05:32:55 PM »

What exactly changes depending on Meretz entering or not?

Right now, a 0.1% increase in vote would increase their seats from 0 to 4.

I meant what changes with the new Bibi government?
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #510 on: November 02, 2022, 06:49:49 PM »

Assuming there are 600k total votes left (Israeli posters tell me if that's the right estimate?) and that the share of invalid votes among those is the same as in what's already counted, Meretz would need to win around 3.85% of what's left in order to pass the threshold. How likely would that be?

Well, 100k votes have been counted and Meretz' vote share has gone down, not up. Unless we expect the final 500k to be different, it's probably over.
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« Reply #511 on: November 02, 2022, 08:00:31 PM »

So what's going to happen with Netanyahu standing trial while PM? I can't see his bloc replacing him even if convicted.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
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« Reply #512 on: November 02, 2022, 08:22:07 PM »
« Edited: November 02, 2022, 08:29:25 PM by Extremely confused and tired Darthpi »

So what's going to happen with Netanyahu standing trial while PM? I can't see his bloc replacing him even if convicted.

Wasn't one of the things that blew up his previous government the fact that he wanted to pass a bill to give himself legal immunity from corruption laws? I imagine he'll be bringing that back.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #513 on: November 03, 2022, 12:59:49 AM »
« Edited: November 03, 2022, 01:22:17 AM by Hnv1 »

4.39M votes counted

Likud: 23.40%
Yesh Atid: 17.87%
RZP: 10.40%
National unity: 8.93%
Shas: 8.36%
UTJ: 6.07%
YB: 4.38%
Ra'am: 4.29%
Hadash-Ta'al: 3.95%
Labour: 3.55%
----3.25% threshold----
Meretz: 3.17%
Balad: 3.02%
JH: 1.17%


Rumors that the next vote dump will see Meretz drop further to 3.15%. I think we can call it and return to the general discussion board to discuss the formation of the new government and leave this thread for results only
https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=527986.0
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Hnv1
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« Reply #514 on: November 03, 2022, 02:43:03 AM »

4.465M votes counted

Likud: 23.45%
Yesh Atid: 17.86%
RZP: 10.55%
National unity: 9%
Shas: 8.31%
UTJ: 6.01%
YB: 4.38%
Ra'am: 4.22%
Hadash-Ta'al: 3.87%
Labour: 3.58%
----3.25% threshold----
Meretz: 3.15%
Balad: 2.97%
JH: 1.18%


It seems like it's mainly IDF votes counted atm. strong tilt to the right and RZ are gaining ground. No doubt it's the Ben Gvir effect
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Pericles
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« Reply #515 on: November 03, 2022, 03:06:50 AM »

What a depressing result, those five elections were a complete waste of time. The anti-Bibi parties blew so many opportunities, they need to take a long and hard look at themselves.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #516 on: November 03, 2022, 08:15:38 AM »
« Edited: November 03, 2022, 08:29:57 AM by Hnv1 »

4.578M votes counted

Likud: 23.47%
Yesh Atid: 17.82%
RZP: 10.69%
National unity: 9.04%
Shas: 8.29%
UTJ: 5.97%
YB: 4.42%
Ra'am: 4.15%
Hadash-Ta'al: 3.82%
Labour: 3.61%
----3.25% threshold----
Meretz: 3.14%
Balad: 2.93%
JH: 1.18%


It's basically finished. Meretz won't pull back from this.

Current seats allocation:
Likud 31
YA 24
RZ 15
Statist 12
Shas 11
UTJ 7
YB 6
Ra'am
Hadash 5
Labour 4 (lol)


Less women. only one Druze (by my count). RZ are going to split into three factions before the coalition talks begin. Bibi might opt to leave Avi Maoz and NOAM out if their demands would be too ridiculous
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danny
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« Reply #517 on: November 03, 2022, 09:04:47 AM »

4.578M votes counted

Likud: 23.47%
Yesh Atid: 17.82%
RZP: 10.69%
National unity: 9.04%
Shas: 8.29%
UTJ: 5.97%
YB: 4.42%
Ra'am: 4.15%
Hadash-Ta'al: 3.82%
Labour: 3.61%
----3.25% threshold----
Meretz: 3.14%
Balad: 2.93%
JH: 1.18%


It's basically finished. Meretz won't pull back from this.

Current seats allocation:
Likud 31
YA 24
RZ 15
Statist 12
Shas 11
UTJ 7
YB 6
Ra'am
Hadash 5
Labour 4 (lol)


Less women. only one Druze (by my count). RZ are going to split into three factions before the coalition talks begin. Bibi might opt to leave Avi Maoz and NOAM out if their demands would be too ridiculous

I don't know where you are getting these numbers but every where I looked agree that it is currently:
Likud 32
YA 24
RZ 14
Statist 12
Shas 11
UTJ 8
YB 5
Ra'am 5
Hadash 5
Labour 4

Which would mean no Druze at all.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #518 on: November 03, 2022, 09:31:13 AM »

What a depressing result, those five elections were a complete waste of time. The anti-Bibi parties blew so many opportunities, they need to take a long and hard look at themselves.

Yeah. The sheer number of unforced errors in this election (and in the previous ones that got us here) is truly something to behold. It's just been a long game of Russian roulette. They avoided the bullet a couple times but if they just kept playing it was going to come up eventually.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #519 on: November 03, 2022, 09:36:51 AM »

What a depressing result, those five elections were a complete waste of time. The anti-Bibi parties blew so many opportunities, they need to take a long and hard look at themselves.

Yeah. The sheer number of unforced errors in this election (and in the previous ones that got us here) is truly something to behold. It's just been a long game of Russian roulette. They avoided the bullet a couple times but if they just kept playing it was going to come up eventually.

I would say that it's a bit like Italy during the Berlusconi era in a Second Time As Farce sense, but the original version was pretty farcical itself.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #520 on: November 03, 2022, 09:40:19 AM »

What a depressing result, those five elections were a complete waste of time. The anti-Bibi parties blew so many opportunities, they need to take a long and hard look at themselves.

Yeah. The sheer number of unforced errors in this election (and in the previous ones that got us here) is truly something to behold. It's just been a long game of Russian roulette. They avoided the bullet a couple times but if they just kept playing it was going to come up eventually.

I would say that it's a bit like Italy during the Berlusconi era in a Second Time As Farce sense, but the original version was pretty farcical itself.

Well, the Italian left blew two chances to form an anti-Berlusconi government (once in 2006-2008 and once in 2011-2013). The anti-Bibi parties blew four, so that's a whole other level.
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Logical
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« Reply #521 on: November 03, 2022, 10:32:01 AM »

4.711M votes counted

Likud: 23.41%
Yesh Atid: 17.79%
RZP: 10.81%
National unity: 9.07%
Shas: 8.25%
UTJ: 5.90%
YB: 4.47%
Ra'am: 4.09%
Hadash-Ta'al: 3.76%
Labour: 3.68%
----3.25% threshold----
Meretz: 3.16%
Balad: 2.90%
JH: 1.19%

Less than 100k votes left to count.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #522 on: November 03, 2022, 10:37:26 AM »

Nearly complete, no significant changes expected

4.740M votes counted

Likud: 23.41%
Yesh Atid: 17.79%
RZP: 10.81%
National unity: 9.07%
Shas: 8.25%
UTJ: 5.90%
YB: 4.47%
Ra'am: 4.09%
Hadash-Ta'al: 3.76%
Labour: 3.68%
----3.25% threshold----
Meretz: 3.16%
Balad: 2.90%
JH: 1.19%
----1% financing threshold----
Economic Liberty: 0.33%
Anti-vax: 0.31%
Yaron Zalicha: 0.29%

And then a lot of nobodies, with the exception of MK Eli Avidar, who got 1139 votes.


Current seat allocation:
Likud 31
YA 24
RZ 14
Statist 12
Shas 11
UTJ 8
YB 6
Ra'am 5
Hadash 5
Labour 4

Bibi bloc: 64
rag tag opposition: 56

See you all in the general discussions thread
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Orwell
JacksonHitchcock
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« Reply #523 on: November 03, 2022, 12:24:38 PM »

W Israel
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danny
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« Reply #524 on: November 03, 2022, 12:59:21 PM »

Final results are in.

4,793,641 total votes, of which 4,763,694 valid votes.

Likud: 23.41%
Yesh Atid: 17.78%
RZP: 10.83%
National unity: 9.08%
Shas: 8.24%
UTJ: 5.88%
YB: 4.49%
Ra'am: 4.07%
Hadash-Ta'al: 3.75%
Labour: 3.69%
----3.25% threshold----
Meretz: 3.16%
Balad: 2.90%
JH: 1.19%

Seat allocation:
Likud 32
Yesh Atid 24
RZP 14
National Unity 12
Shas 11
UTJ 7
YB 6
Ra'am 5
Hadash 5
Labour 4

Bibi bloc: 64
Anti-Bibi: 56

The threshold was 154,820 which Meretz missed by 4,124 votes.
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