Israel 2022 election (November 1st) (user search)
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Author Topic: Israel 2022 election (November 1st)  (Read 33708 times)
Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,708
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

P P P
« on: June 20, 2022, 01:50:18 PM »


Every single detail about this is absolutely extraordinary.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,708
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

P P P
« Reply #1 on: June 20, 2022, 01:56:27 PM »

It's a board customary rule, since the 2012 fiasco with Moufaz, that we do not start this thread until the Knesset officially dissolves!


This is the first election since I was eligible to vote that I really have no idea who I will vote for.

Turnout is going to be epicly low.

Are you suggesting the choice between "Guy currently on trial for public corruption" and "Most obviously unstable partnership since Molotov and Ribbentrop" isn't an appealing one?
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,708
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

P P P
« Reply #2 on: June 22, 2022, 03:05:50 PM »

At this point, who does Blue & White represent and what do they stand for (as opposed to, say, Yesh Atid)?
A bit less urban, they are stronger in the Moshavim. A bit older. Professional army men and veterans. Old hawkish Labour voters. young "apolitical" voters. etc.

YA tilt slightly more to the left and has a more urban and liberal vibe. A younger vibe altogether.

That's why we see a bigger vote shift from Meretz to YA, and from Labour to B&W than from any of the other combinations.

It will be interesting to see how Eisenkot's imminent entrance to YA will affect their "civilian" image.

The ideological differences are minor. Gantz seems to like to talk more about the Palestinian issue than Lapid, who prefers to stay in the social liberal issues ballpark. B&W has a more protectionist attitude, with MKs Bitton and Shuster lobbying for farmers and some interest groups (like army professionals). YA is more liberal and doesn't really cater to any interest group, well, part for the tech and finance industry.
B&W likes to talk about "security", YA likes to talk about society.

I feel like Blue and White would be a natural coalition partner for Likud but for the fact that they do not trust Netanyahu as an individual. Yesh Atid on the other hand comes form a different secular, center-left tradition that does not mesh nearly as well with Likud and it's nationalist, right-wing stance, or with Likud's allies in the Haredi parties.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,708
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

P P P
« Reply #3 on: July 08, 2022, 08:51:54 PM »

Is there a reason that Yamina couldn't, or wouldn't, run on a joint list with New Hope? (For that matter Labor-Meretz also makes a great deal of sense and has been done in the past, but since the leadership is the same as last time this doesn't seem very likely.)

My assumption would just be personality conflicts between the leaders, because there really isn't *that* much of a difference ideologically.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,708
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

P P P
« Reply #4 on: September 04, 2022, 08:57:39 PM »

Why does Israel have such ridiculously long election campaigns? Most countries have campaign periods of five or six weeks and if an early election is forced due to a non confidence vote, it’s usually held no more than two months later. Only Israel seems to think it takes like six months to hold an early election.

Considering America has been in a permanent election campaign from basically 2015 to the present with no break, a six month campaign sounds positively ideal.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,708
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

P P P
« Reply #5 on: September 19, 2022, 02:45:59 PM »

Israel can yall please not do whatever the f*** it looks like yall are currently on pace to do? My sanity would appreciate it.
Logged
Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,708
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

P P P
« Reply #6 on: September 19, 2022, 06:50:36 PM »

Israel can yall please not do whatever the f*** it looks like yall are currently on pace to do? My sanity would appreciate it.

My other ancestral homeland (Italy) is certain to f*** up in a few days, so I cannot agree more with you with this sentiment.

Italy really is just picking progressively more and more outlandish governments, I do have to wonder at what point reality is going to catch up with people there.
Logged
Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,708
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

P P P
« Reply #7 on: November 01, 2022, 02:06:26 PM »

So, am I correct in assuming that the election is still basically 50/50 between Netanyahu comeback or else complete ungovernability?
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,708
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

P P P
« Reply #8 on: November 01, 2022, 03:17:23 PM »

If Netanyahu returns to power with this extreme-right coalition, any pretense of abiding by the Oslo accords is going to be gone.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,708
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

P P P
« Reply #9 on: November 01, 2022, 03:45:46 PM »

If Netanyahu returns to power with this extreme-right coalition, any pretense of abiding by the Oslo accords is going to be gone.
How's the weather in 2009?

Okay, even farther gone and beyond the possibility of ever returning than it already was.

Never underestimate the possibility of things getting worse.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,708
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

P P P
« Reply #10 on: November 01, 2022, 03:56:10 PM »

If Netanyahu returns to power with this extreme-right coalition, any pretense of abiding by the Oslo accords is going to be gone.
How's the weather in 2009?

Okay, even farther gone and beyond the possibility of ever returning than it already was.
Lapid dropped bombs from the air a few weeks ago in the West Bank. First time in 20 years. I don't think this election changes the balance at all.

Parties that are at least *hypothetically* open to *some form* of negotiations and peace *at some point* - even if they are working against peaceful negotiations at the present - are still better than a government that will include people like Ben-Gvir who are openly in favor of ethnic cleansing of the Arab minority in Israel, support large-scale annexations of Palestinian land as soon possible, and who oppose any form of negotiated peace ever.

Everything is bad! But not everything is equally bad!
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,708
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

P P P
« Reply #11 on: November 01, 2022, 06:21:07 PM »

I had forgotten what was the best thing about Israeli elections - Google attempting to translate the Hebrew names of obscure political parties:

"Young people are on fire"

"The idea of ​​good and evil and the covenant of Abraham's tribe is a green leaf and prohibits God"

Good times
Logged
Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,708
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

P P P
« Reply #12 on: November 01, 2022, 08:24:56 PM »

623K votes counted:
Likud: 24.84%
Yesh Atid: 15.92%
RZP: 10.92%
Shas: 9.62%
National unity: 8.33%
UTJ: 7.01%
Beitenu: 4.65%
Hadash: 3.78%
RAAM: 3.39%
Labour: 3.31%
----3.25% threshold----
Balad: 2.85%
Meretz: 2.72%
JH: 1.21%
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,708
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

P P P
« Reply #13 on: November 01, 2022, 08:43:36 PM »


It's Israel, that's what they do.
Logged
Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,708
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

P P P
« Reply #14 on: November 01, 2022, 09:01:40 PM »

1.001M votes counted:
Likud: 24.28%
Yesh Atid: 16.42%
RZP: 11.07%
Shas: 9.63%
National unity: 8.56%
UTJ: 7.86%
Beitenu: 4.55%
Hadash: 3.36%
Labour: 3.29%
----3.25% threshold----
RAAM: 2.96%
Meretz: 2.7%
Balad: 2.62%
JH: 1.27%

Counting finally picking up the pace.
Logged
Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,708
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

P P P
« Reply #15 on: November 01, 2022, 09:19:58 PM »

1.214M votes counted:
Likud: 23.95%
Yesh Atid: 16.07%
RZP: 11.40%
Shas: 9.68%
National unity: 8.47%
UTJ: 7.98%
Beitenu: 4.39%
Hadash: 3.46%
Labour: 3.33%
----3.25% threshold----
RAAM: 2.97%
Balad: 2.76%
Meretz: 2.76%
JH: 1.34%
Logged
Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,708
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

P P P
« Reply #16 on: November 01, 2022, 10:17:23 PM »


By my count Yesh Atid+NU+Shas+Labor+Chadash-Tal+Yisrael Beiteinu is 61. If Netanyahu doesn't have the votes and said parties vote against ousting Lapid I think he remains in office.

A Haredi party like Shas will never back a staunch secularist like Lapid. They would be more likely to back a Labor-led government than one led by him.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,708
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

P P P
« Reply #17 on: November 01, 2022, 10:23:18 PM »

1.662M votes counted:
Likud: 23.71%
Yesh Atid: 16.25%
RZP: 11.45%
Shas: 9.21%
National unity: 8.86%
UTJ: 7.57%
Beitenu: 4.27%
Hadash: 3.70%
Labour: 3.27%
----3.25% threshold----
Balad: 3.14%
RAAM: 3.09%
Meretz: 2.67%
JH: 1.38%

Arab party vote ticked up a fair bit in this update
Logged
Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,708
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

P P P
« Reply #18 on: November 01, 2022, 10:27:59 PM »


Labour is getting dangerously close to that 3.25% threshold, though my instinct is that their better areas might be lagging behind a bit.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,708
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

P P P
« Reply #19 on: November 01, 2022, 10:48:25 PM »


Labour is getting dangerously close to that 3.25% threshold, though my instinct is that their better areas might be lagging behind a bit.
Less than 2k votes counted in Tel Aviv. They'll both pass.

Yeah, that'll do it.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,708
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

P P P
« Reply #20 on: November 01, 2022, 11:21:39 PM »

2.147M votes counted:
Likud: 23.18%
Yesh Atid: 17.56%
RZP: 11.05%
Shas: 9.11%
National unity: 8.56%
UTJ: 6.78%
Beitenu: 4.22%
Hadash: 3.90%
Labour: 3.66%
----3.25% threshold----
Meretz: 3.24%
Balad: 3.11%
RAAM: 2.87%
JH: 1.33%

A bunch of Tel Aviv just came in
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,708
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

P P P
« Reply #21 on: November 02, 2022, 12:05:51 AM »

I've gotta be heading off to bed too. Hoping against hope that Netanyahu's corrupt, extreme-right faction can be kept out of power again, even if it means the absurdity of yet another election.
Logged
Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,708
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

P P P
« Reply #22 on: November 02, 2022, 11:01:15 AM »

Damn this is a disappointing result. Hope Meretz has enough votes left to claw themselves over the threshold, but it hardly matters when Netanyahu is going to be in power again with an extreme-right coalition.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,708
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

P P P
« Reply #23 on: November 02, 2022, 11:36:52 AM »

Fun fact: only 9 out of 62-65 MKs in the right wing coalition will be women

That's religious fundamentalism for you.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,708
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

P P P
« Reply #24 on: November 02, 2022, 05:20:08 PM »

4.288M votes counted

Likud: 23.38%
Yesh Atid: 17.89%
RZP: 10.34%
National unity: 8.92%
Shas: 8.37%
UTJ: 6.09%
Beitenu: 4.35%
Ra'am: 4.33%
Hadash-Ta'al: 3.97%
Labour: 3.55%
----3.25% threshold----
Meretz: 3.17%
Balad: 3.04%
JH: 1.16%
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