Israel 2022 election (November 1st)

[Logical]

Time to bring back the classic.

[Logical]

Can someone explain the rise of Otzma Yehudit. How did they go from a minor part of RZP and 1-2% of the vote when running separately to polling at 7 seats on their own?

[Logical]

When will we know results?

If it’s clear cut we’ll know by morning. If it’s a close one we’ll have to wait for the all the double envelopes to be counted by Friday morning

Wednesday morning? When does voting end?

10 PM Today (8 PM GMT).

[Logical]

Past turnout table

[Logical]

Solid Bibi win.

Maybe, but the Arab sector is on fire right now. They'll probably get to at least 55% and perhaps even higher, which would likely get Balad across. No way the right wins if all three Arab parties are over the threshold.

We live in the banter timeline so what will happen is all 3 Arab parties and Shaked passes the threshold.

[Logical]

Hi all,

Does anyone have useful links for TV coverage, official results, live result maps, etc?

Thanks so much,

DC

There's Hebrew coverage here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MyvMzLjrQbA. I doubt if there will by English coverage.

Links to official results and maps will only be posted after the polls close.

I found the link to the conservative Channel 14: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6bK-x1csbcM

Channel 13 normally had a live youtube feed on election nights, but I cannot find it. The KAN 11 feed is geoblocked.

Ynet has a livestream too:
https://youtu.be/NU_VtWW6qJg

i24 news usually does an English speaking election night livestream but they have not posted anything this year.

[Logical]

Israeli exit polls are practically voodoo and not worth your time.

[Logical]

I think Balad gets in. Channel 11 has them .15% away, and the prison vote alone should cover that.

All 4 exit polls seem to have them falling below.  So if they get in then it will upend all these projections.

Every exit poll in 2021 has Raam not making it past the threshold. No one has good idea about Arab turnout except for the Arab parties themselves.

[Logical]

Mandatory LOL Meretz

Labour is getting dangerously close to that 3.25% threshold, though my instinct is that their better areas might be lagging behind a bit.

Less than 2k votes counted in Tel Aviv. They'll both pass when all is done.

[Logical]

Few observations from scanning results in Arab towns.

-Turnout increased by 10-20% from 2021
-Balad takes about a third to half of Joint List's vote. Ra'am vote stable
-Likud vote among Arabs collapsed
-Labor and Meretz do slightly worse

[Logical]

3M votes counted
Likud: 23.72%
Yesh Atid: 17.95%
RZP: 10.47%
Shas: 9.11%
National unity: 9.10%
UTJ: 7.23%
Beitenu: 4.46%
Labour: 3.60%
Hadash-Ta'al: 3.38%
----3.25% threshold----
Meretz: 3.17%
Balad: 2.75%
RAAM: 2.47%
JH: 1.16%

[Logical]

Few observations from scanning results in Arab towns.

-Turnout increased by 10-20% from 2021
-Balad takes about a third to half of Joint List's vote. Ra'am vote stable
-Likud vote among Arabs collapsed
-Labor and Meretz do slightly worse

Who were the Arabs voting for Likud anyway?

Mostly Bedouins and Druzes

[Logical]

3.43M votes counted
Likud: 23.77%
Yesh Atid: 17.44%
RZP: 10.78%
Shas: 8.94%
National unity: 8.88%
UTJ: 6.80%
Beitenu: 4.38%
Ra'am: 3.86%
Labour: 3.48%
Hadash-Ta'al: 3.33%
----3.25% threshold----
Meretz: 3.05%
Balad: 2.69%
JH: 1.17%

Bunch of Southern Arab vote came in strong, putting Ra'am above threshold. There's still some ~80k uncounted votes left in Tel Aviv that will probably save Meretz.

[Logical]

3.84M votes counted
Likud: 23.04%
Yesh Atid: 17.99%
RZP: 10.27%
National unity: 8.94%
Shas: 8.44%
UTJ: 6.37%
Beitenu: 4.27%
Ra'am: 4.25%
Hadash-Ta'al: 3.94%
Labour: 3.60%
----3.25% threshold----
Meretz: 3.23%
Balad: 3.07%
JH: 1.17%

Very favorable drop for the anti Bibi bloc. Looks like that was most of Tel Aviv though, so Meretz is walking the tightrope here. The Haredim parties have maxed out and will only go down now.

[Logical]

4.057M votes counted

Likud: 23.22%
Yesh Atid: 17.92%
RZP: 10.31%
National unity: 8.91%
Shas: 8.41%
UTJ: 6.22%
Ra'am: 4.35%
Beitenu: 4.33%
Hadash-Ta'al: 3.92%
Labour: 3.57%
----3.25% threshold----
Meretz: 3.20%
Balad: 3.05%
JH: 1.17%

[Logical]

What a mess, but completely expected. Are there any other countries in the world that are more socially conservative than they were 10 years ago?

Brazil? India?

[Logical]

4.711M votes counted

Likud: 23.41%
Yesh Atid: 17.79%
RZP: 10.81%
National unity: 9.07%
Shas: 8.25%
UTJ: 5.90%
YB: 4.47%
Ra'am: 4.09%
Hadash-Ta'al: 3.76%
Labour: 3.68%
----3.25% threshold----
Meretz: 3.16%
Balad: 2.90%
JH: 1.19%

Less than 100k votes left to count.

[Logical]

Since I had nothing better to do here are the results of the 10 largest localities in Israel. Major parties under 0.1% of the vote are not included

Jerusalem - 264k votes
UTJ - 23.8%
Likud - 19.11%
Shas - 18.31%
RZP - 14.22%
YA - 7.47%
Statist - 5.25%
Meretz - 2.76%
Labor - 2.48%
JH - 1.9%
YB - 1.87%
Hadash - 0.96%
Balad - 0.65%
Ra'am - 0.28%

Tel Aviv - 265k votes
YA - 32.82%
Likud - 17.01%
Statist - 11.02%
Meretz - 10.93%
Labor - 9.26%
RZP - 4.5%
Shas - 4.3%
YB -3.31%
Balad - 1.54%
Hadash - 1.53%
UTJ - 0.83%
JH - 0.75%
Ra'am - 0.69%

Haifa - 139k votes
YA - 26.31%
Likud - 20.94%
Statist - 10.14%
YB - 8.13%
RZP - 6.29%
Hadash - 5.71%
Labor - 4.76%
Meretz - 4.59%
UTJ - 3.76%
Shas - 3.16%
Balad - 2.8%
JH - 0.89%
Ra'am - 0.82%

Rishon LeZion - 139k votes
Likud - 32.35%
YA - 25.2%
Statist 13.8%
RZP - 9.72%
YB - 6.29%
Shas - 4.97%
Labor - 2.86%
Meretz - 1.58%
JH - 0.74%
UTJ - 0.66%

Petah Tikva - 133k votes
Likud - 28.43%
YA - 19.78%
RZP - 13.77%
Statist - 10.62%
Shas - 8.92%
YB - 6.02%
UTJ - 4.42%
Labor - 2.51%
JH - 2.15%
Meretz - 1.56%

Netanya - 113k votes
Likud - 35.51%
YA - 17.47%
Shas - 12.18%
RZP - 11.39%
Statist - 8.45%
YB - 6.64%
UTJ - 2.8%
Labor - 1.79%
Meretz - 1.06%
JH - 1.04%

Ashdod - 116k votes
Likud - 28.92%
Shas - 15.7%
UTJ - 13.45%
YA - 12.78%
YB - 10.4%
RZP - 8.99%
Statist - 6.6%
Labor - 0.9%
Meretz - 0.47%
JH - 0.44%

Bnei Brak - 87k votes
UTJ - 59.79%
Shas - 30.18%
RZP - 4.43%
Likud - 3.39%
YA - 0.71%
Statist - 0.47%
YB - 0.35%
JH - 0.18%
Labor - 0.16%
Meretz - 0.11%

Beersheba - 100k votes
Likud - 40.3%
RZP - 15.67%
YA - 12.05%
Shas - 8.97%
YB - 7.96%
Statist 7.49%
Labor - 1.88%
UTJ - 1.45%
Meretz - 0.96%
JH - 0.74%
Hadash - 0.33%
Ra'am - 0.32%
Balad - 0.18%

Holon - 100k votes
Likud - 34.67%
YA - 20.57%
Statist - 11.63%
Shas - 10.53%
RZP - 10.2%
YB - 4.65%
Labor - 2.84%
Meretz - 1.55%
UTJ - 0.83%
JH - 0.68%

[Logical]

Now to the mixed cities, where RZP had some of their biggest gains and Arab turnout markedly increased.

Ramla - 36k votes
Likud - 39.43% (-5.5)
Shas - 13.52% (+1.5)
RZP - 12.68% (+9)
YA - 6.14% (+0.1)
Balad - 5.98% (+3.8 combined with Hadash)
Ra'am - 5.88% (+0.3)
Statist - 4.95% (-2.4 from BW+NH)
Hadash - 4.11% (+3.8 combined with Balad)
YB - 3.05% (-1.3)
Labor - 1.37% (-0.6)
Meretz - 0.93% (-0.8 )
UTJ - 0.4% (-)
JH - 0.34% (-3.9 from Yamina)

Lod - 35k votes
Likud - 28.53% (-5.8 )
Balad - 15.73% (+8.5 with Hadash)
RZP - 15.5% (+8 )
Shas - 9.27% (+0.9)
YA - 6.6% (-)
UTJ - 6.02% (+2.1)
YB - 5.79% (-2.7)
Statist - 3.69% (-3 from BW&NH)
Ra'am - 2.8% (-1.8 )
Hadash - 1.86% (+8.5 with Balad)
JH - 1.15% (-5 from Yamina)
Labor - 0.95% (-0.8 )
Meretz - 0,65% (-0.4)

Acre - 25k votes
Likud - 32.84% (-5.4)
Hadash - 10.99% (+4.1 with Balad)
RZP - 10.09% (+6.2)
Shas - 8.97% (+1)
Ra'am - 8.05% (+1.3)
YB - 7.91% (-1.4)
Balad - 7.36% (+4.1 with Hadash)
YA - 6.82% (+1.5)
Statist - 3.97% (-2.6 from BW&NH)
Labor - 0,92% (-0.5)
Meretz - 0.73% (-0.5)
JH - 0.46% (-3.2 from Yamina)
UTJ - 0.27% (-)

Nof HaGalil - 21k votes
Likud - 27.88% (-1.8 )
Hadash -16.87% (+3.4 with Balad)
YB - 15.09% (-3)
YA - 9.93% (+1.9)
RZP - 7.6% (+4.6)
Balad - 6.68% (+3.4 with Hadash)
Statist - 4.07% (-2.9 from BW&NH)
Shas - 2.64% (+0.4)
UTJ - 2.45% (+0.4)
Ra'am - 2.01% (+0.6)
Labor - 1.59% (-0.4)
Meretz - 1.31% (-1)
JH - 0.27% (-2.2 from Yamina)

[Logical]

Finally, the results for major Arab and other minority municipalities. In the larger Arab towns it's interesting to see which Arab list was stronger than the other.

Nazareth - 28k votes (North)
Hadash - 45.31%
Balad - 26.2%
Ra'am - 21.41%
Likud - 2.34%
Meretz - 1.65%
YA - 1.21%

Tamra - 15k votes (North)
Ra'am - 36.49%
Hadash - 34.22%
Balad - 24.52%
YA - 2.34%

Sakhnin - 15k votes (North)
Hadash - 38.55%
Balad - 30.29%
Ra'am - 29.06%

Shefa-Amr - 15k votes (North)
Hadash - 36.57%
Balad - 22.39%
Ra'am - 20.16%
YB - 8.22%
YA - 2.92%
Meretz - 2.74%
Labor - 2.01%
Statist - 1.94%
Likus - 1.63%

Arraba - 10k votes (North)
Hadash - 43.81%
Ra'am - 28.93%
Balad - 25.63%

Kafr Kanna - 8.2k votes (North)
Balad - 37.11%
Ra'am - 33.84%
Hadash - 22.17%
Likud - 2.4%
YA - 2.18%

Majd Al-Krum - 7k votes (North)
Hadash - 45.81%
Balad - 41.24%
Ra'am - 10.73%

Kafr Yasif - 5.2k votes (Christian mix)
Hadash - 53.56%
Balad - 29.1%
Ra'am - 8.19%
Likud - 2.64%
Meretz - 1.74%
YA - 1.57%
Statist - 1.09%

ar-Rama - 3.6k votes (Christian mix)
Hadash - 35.83%
Balad - 15.23%
Ra'am - 11.09%
Meretz - 8.23%
Likud - 8.17%
YB - 6.31%
YA - 5.86%
Statist - 5.09%
Labor - 2.72%

Eilabun - 2.7k votes (Christian-Druze)
Hadash - 39.91%
Balad - 18.3%
Ra'am - 12.43%
Meretz - 11.24%
YA - 6.16%
Likud - 5.04%
Statist - 3.52%
Labor - 1.45%

Mi'ilya - 1.7k votes (Christian)
Hadash - 47.62%
Balad - 24.77%
Meretz - 11.54%
YA - 10.27%
Statist - 1.86%
Likud - 1.45%

Fassuta - 1.2k votes (Christian)
Balad - 34.62%
Hadash - 32.13%
Meretz - 16.06%
Likud - 4.66%
Statist - 4.34%
YA - 3.78%
Ra'am - 1.85%
Labor - 1.2%

Jish - 1.2k votes (Christian)
Hadash - 36.18%
Balad - 26.6%
Ra'am - 11.32%
Meretz - 8.47%
YA - 6.81%
Labor - 3.25%
Likud - 2.85%
Statist - 2.53%

Jisr az-Zarqa - 4.1k votes (Coastal)
Hadash - 41.19%
Ra'am - 32.04%
Balad - 20.81%
Meretz - 1.66%
Likud - 1.22%

Fureidis - 3.5k votes (Coastal)
Ra'am - 33.84%
Balad - 29.65%
Hadash - 28.8%
Meretz - 2.61%
YA - 1.08%

Umm al-Fahm - 14k votes (Northern Triangle)
Hadash - 40.54%
Balad - 37.87%
Ra'am - 18.05%

Baqa al-Gharbiyye - 9.6k votes (Northern Triangle)
Balad - 50.59%
Ra'am - 22.55%
Hadash - 22.39%
Statist - 1.49%
Meretz - 1.23%

Kfar Kara - 8.4k votes (Northern Triangle)
Ra'am - 50.29%
Balad - 27.74%
Hadash - 19.31%

Ar'ara - 7.3k votes (Northern Triangle)
Balad - 45.06%
Hadash - 26.09%
Ra'am - 26.15%

Ma'ale Iron - 4.5k votes (Northern Triangle)
Balad - 43.37%
Hadash - 23.78%
Ra'am - 22.24%
Shas - 5.09%
Meretz - 1.96%

Tayibe - 17.4k votes (Southern Triangle)
Hadash - 62.95%
Balad - 17.42%
Ra'am - 16.63%
Meretz - 1.4%

Tira - 11k votes (Southern Triangle)
Balad - 34.86%
Ra'am - 32.16%
Hadash - 29.31%
Meretz - 1.25%

Kafr Qasim - 10k votes (Southern Triangle)
Ra'am - 67.51%
Hadash - 13.07%
Balad - 11.76%
Meretz - 5.42%

Qalansawe - 8k votes (Southern Triangle)
Hadash - 41.54%
Balad - 32.24%
Ra'am - 23.12%

Abu Ghosh - 2.7k votes (Jerusalem)
Balad - 45.61%
Ra'am - 30.26%
Hadash - 11.27%
Likud - 7.51%
Meretz - 2.09%

Rahat - 23k votes (South)
Ra'am - 64.16%
Balad - 13.99%
Hadash - 12.51%
Meretz - 4.13%
Likud - 1.59%

Tel as-Sabi - 5.7k votes (South)
Ra'am - 81.37%
Hadash - 8%
Balad - 7.44%
Likud - 1.02%

Ar'arat an-Naqab - 5.5k votes (South)
Ra'am - 92.1%
Balad - 3.14%
Hadash - 2.55%

Kuseife - 5.2k votes (South)
Ra'am - 71.36%
Balad - 10.97%
Hadash - 8.1%
Statist - 4.26%
Meretz - 2.29%
Likud - 1.03%

Hura - 4.3k votes (South)
Ra'am - 54.82%
Hadash - 39.18%
Balad - 2.23%
Likud - 1.44%

Lakiya - 4k votes (South)
Ra'am - 68.33%
Balad - 23.12%
Hadash - 6.27%

Shaqib al-Salam - 3.1k votes (South)
Ra'am - 70.13%
Hadash - 25.16%
Likud - 1.66%
Balad - 1.32%

Daliyat al-Karmel - 7.2k votes (Druze)
Statist - 54.88%
YB - 15.79%
YA - 11.39%
Meretz - 5.19%
Likud - 3.16%
Hadash - 2.78%
Labor - 2.63%
Ra'am - 1.2%

Isfiya - 4.8k votes (Druze)
Statist - 32.15%
YB - 17.51%
Balad - 11.18%
YA - 8.85%
Meretz - 8.5%
Hadash - 7.62%
Ra'am - 5.62%
Likud - 3.35%
Labor - 2.82%

Yarka - 5.7k votes (Druze)
Likud - 34.43%
Statist - 22.61%
YB - 15.68%
Meretz - 7.44%
Hadash - 7.2%
YA - 6.5%
Ra'am - 2.06%
Labor - 1.19%

Beit Jann - 4.8k votes (Druze)
Meretz - 61.59%
Statist - 9.77%
YB - 8.57%
Labor - 5.96%
Likud - 5.69%
YA - 3.5%
Hadash - 1.55%
Ra'am - 1.14%

Kisra-Sumei 1.9k votes (Druze)
Statist - 39.79%
YB - 16.76%
Likud - 9.77%
YA - 9.25%
Meretz - 7.46%
Labor - 4.68%
Hadash - 3.44%
Balad - 3.08%

Kfar Kama - 930 votes (Circassian)
YA - 28.82%
Statist - 22.15%
Ra'am - 19.78%
Meretz - 9.35%
Labor - 8.49%
Likud - 3.01%
Hadash - 2.8%
YB - 1.83%

Rehaniya - 482 votes (Circassian)
Statist - 23.44%
YA - 18.67%
YB - 18.26%
Hadash - 9.13%
Ra'am - 8.71%
Labor - 8.3%
Meretz - 4.98%
Likud - 3.11%
Balad - 2.9%

[Logical]

Finally, the results for major Arab and other minority municipalities. In the larger Arab towns it's interesting to see which Arab list was stronger than the other.

Did Meretz lose votes compared to the previous election in Arab towns?

They did not lose much vote wise, but as turnout in Arab towns increased by more than 10% the share of the Arab vote they got decreased as a percentage.