Israel 2022 election (November 1st)

[Antonio the Sixth]

Are we sure those are the final results? Based on the turnout figure there should be 4840k total votes.

Anyway, if these are the final results, I guess the Bibi block won 48.36% and anti-Bibi got 48.92%. That should have resulted in a 60-60 deadlock (and thus a guarantee of a new election), but oh well.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ah but have you considered how tactically brilliant it is too run too many lists in a PR system with thresholds?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

 Muy mucho estupido...

[danny]

Are we sure those are the final results? Based on the turnout figure there should be 4840k total votes.

Anyway, if these are the final results, I guess the Bibi block won 48.36% and anti-Bibi got 48.92%. That should have resulted in a 60-60 deadlock (and thus a guarantee of a new election), but oh well.

Yes, the turnout number we got on election day is an estimate, we only know the real number once the votes are counted. In this case the turnout ended a little lower than estimated at 70.6%.

If you are adding up parties below the threshold than you should add Jewish Home which declared itself part of the Bibi bloc, and would put it slightly ahead. But the general idea is correct, the two sides got an almost equal number of votes.

[Antonio the Sixth]

If you are adding up parties below the threshold than you should add Jewish Home which declared itself part of the Bibi bloc, and would put it slightly ahead. But the general idea is correct, the two sides got an almost equal number of votes.

Oh, I didn't realize that. I assumed JH was out of both blocks given its recent experience.

I guess that makes me feel marginally better about the unfairness of this outcome, though the bottom line is still dreadful.

[Cassius]

Is it really meaningful to speak of an anti-Bibi “bloc” that includes Lieberman and Gideon Sa’ar on the one end and Hadash and Balad on the other? Sure, they’re all anti-Bibi but they don’t represent any coherent alternative government.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is it really meaningful to speak of an anti-Bibi “bloc” that includes Lieberman and Gideon Sa’ar on the one end and Hadash and Balad on the other? Sure, they’re all anti-Bibi but they don’t represent any coherent alternative government.

I mean, all of those have in fact been working together in the past year to keep the previous government alive, so they're clearly capable to do so. It's JH that pulled the plug.

[Cassius]

Is it really meaningful to speak of an anti-Bibi “bloc” that includes Lieberman and Gideon Sa’ar on the one end and Hadash and Balad on the other? Sure, they’re all anti-Bibi but they don’t represent any coherent alternative government.

I mean, all of those have in fact been working together in the past year to keep the previous government alive, so they're clearly capable to do so. It's JH that pulled the plug.

My understanding was that some of the Arab MKs also yanked their support from the government due to a proposal to expand the jurisdiction of Israeli law to the West Bank? I think the point is that, sure, a rackety government can be assembled from the parties opposed to Netanyahu, but that such a government is never going to survive long term due to the unbridgeable differences between its right and left wings.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

A couple more memes for the road:

[Hnv1]

Is it really meaningful to speak of an anti-Bibi “bloc” that includes Lieberman and Gideon Sa’ar on the one end and Hadash and Balad on the other? Sure, they’re all anti-Bibi but they don’t represent any coherent alternative government.

By bloc, we mean a block, literally. The anti-Bibi bloc is the sum of parties that were willing to block a Bibi government at all costs, not an alternative government.

[America Needs R'hllor]

My hometown Ma'alot-Tarshiha (change from last time):
Likud 26.6% (-1.6%)
YB 12.5% (-3.6%)
RZ 11.5% (+5.5%)
Balad 10.7% (+3.6% combined with Hadash-Ta'al)
Yesh Atid 10.3% (+2.4%)
Hadash-Ta'al 8.4% (+3.6% combined with Balad)
Shas 6.5% (+0.4%)
Statist 5% (-1.8% for NH+KL)
Ra'am 2.8% (+-0)
Meretz 1.2% (-1.1%)
Labor 1% (-0.9%)
JH 0.9% (-3.4% for Yamina)
UTJ 0.8% (+0.2%)
Ometz (antivax) 0.4% (-0.3% from previous antivax party)

Notice the fall for YB- these are all Russians that I wager Ben Gvir picked up. Same for the small percent Likud lost. Really interesting to see the pattern of Arab parties in Tarshiha (the Arab village combined with my town). It's actually considered a really peaceful and "unproblematic" village and yet Balad seems to be the single strongest Arab party there. Ra'am seems to get consistent support from a tiny Bedouin population, and Hadash gets the rest.

Rishon LeZion (where I rent):
Likud 32.4% (+0.8%)
Yesh Atid 25.2% (+4.1%)
Statist 13.8% (-3% combined with NH)
RZ 9.7% (+6.9%)
YB 6.3% (-1.8%)
Shas 5% (+1.2%)
Labor 2.9% (-1.9%)
Meretz 1.6% (-0.8%)
JH 0.7% (-5.5%)
UTJ 0.7% (+0.2%)

Horrifying lurch to the right. Willing to bet these 6.9% are mostly young people.

[danny]

If you are adding up parties below the threshold than you should add Jewish Home which declared itself part of the Bibi bloc, and would put it slightly ahead. But the general idea is correct, the two sides got an almost equal number of votes.

Oh, I didn't realize that. I assumed JH was out of both blocks given its recent experience.

I guess that makes me feel marginally better about the unfairness of this outcome, though the bottom line is still dreadful.

Blocs aren't an official thing so it is somewhat subjective. However, Shaked during the campaign apologized for being part of the last government and promised to be part of Bibi's coalition, so I think putting her in the Bibi bloc is only option.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Shaked during the campaign apologized for being part of the last government and promised to be part of Bibi's coalition

lol lmao lol

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is it really meaningful to speak of an anti-Bibi “bloc” that includes Lieberman and Gideon Sa’ar on the one end and Hadash and Balad on the other? Sure, they’re all anti-Bibi but they don’t represent any coherent alternative government.

This is not untrue, but it is important to note that the 'Bibi bloc' is also not very logically coherent and contains a lot of elements with blatantly contradictory policy preferences and political interests. It's held together by sheer force of personality, much as the anti-Bibi bloc is also - to a weaker extent as we've seen and to its cost - by that same force of personality, but in a negative sense.

[Pres Mike]

Is it really meaningful to speak of an anti-Bibi “bloc” that includes Lieberman and Gideon Sa’ar on the one end and Hadash and Balad on the other? Sure, they’re all anti-Bibi but they don’t represent any coherent alternative government.

I mean, all of those have in fact been working together in the past year to keep the previous government alive, so they're clearly capable to do so. It's JH that pulled the plug.

My understanding was that some of the Arab MKs also yanked their support from the government due to a proposal to expand the jurisdiction of Israeli law to the West Bank? I think the point is that, sure, a rackety government can be assembled from the parties opposed to Netanyahu, but that such a government is never going to survive long term due to the unbridgeable differences between its right and left wings.

Not really

(I’m a Palestinian American btw)

It’s clear that the Israeli electorate is right wing. Every election since 2015 had produced strong conservative majorities. Sometimes 60% of Kessent seats are held by right wing parties. It’s just that Netanyahu has such a off putting personality.

Of course, there are huge disagreements like Liberman and the ultra orthodox 

[America Needs R'hllor]

Is it really meaningful to speak of an anti-Bibi “bloc” that includes Lieberman and Gideon Sa’ar on the one end and Hadash and Balad on the other? Sure, they’re all anti-Bibi but they don’t represent any coherent alternative government.

This is not untrue, but it is important to note that the 'Bibi bloc' is also not very logically coherent and contains a lot of elements with blatantly contradictory policy preferences and political interests. It's held together by sheer force of personality, much as the anti-Bibi bloc is also - to a weaker extent as we've seen and to its cost - by that same force of personality, but in a negative sense.

Much less so than the other bloc, though, and decreasingly less. The haredi public transformed into a much more right wing public recently. They're all very comfortable with each other by now with minimal disagreements. Likud doesn't have many liberals now, and its base are fairly conservative\don't mind some religious oppression for the pleasure of hurting Arabs. Once they don't need YB, a lot of the contradictions are off the table

[America Needs R'hllor]

Jerusalem:
UTJ 23.8% (+0.2%)
Likud 19.1% (-1.5%)
Shas 18.3% (+2.7%)
RZ 14.2% (+4.9%)
Yesh Atid 7.5% (+1.9%)
Statist 5.3% (-1.4% combined with NH)
Meretz 2.8% (-0.9%)
Labor 2.5% (-1.5%)
JH 1.9% (-4.8%)
YB 1.9% (-0.1%)
Hadash-Ta'al 1% (+0.6% combined in JL)
Balad 0.7% (+0.6% combined in JL)
Ra'am 0.3% (+0.1%)

Tel Aviv-Yafo:
Yesh Atic 32.8% (+10.7%)
Likud 17% (+0.04%)
Statist 11% (-3.9% combined with NH)
Meretz 10.9% (-3.1%)
Labor 9.3% (-5.5%)
RZ 4.5% (+2.8%
Shas 4.3% (+0.7%)
YB 3.3% (-0.4%)
Balad 1.5% (+1% combined with Hadash-Ta'al)
Hadash-Ta'al 1.5% (+1% combined with Balad)
UTJ 0.8% (+0.07%)
JH 0.7% (-2.9%)
Ra'am 0.7% (+0.2%)

[America Needs R'hllor]

In a vegan commune where some of my friends live, the antivax party grew from 4.6% (18 votes) to 7.6% (29 votes), while RZ grew from 3.9% (15 votes) to 13.7% (52 votes). Labor won there last time with 20.3% (79 votes) and now fell to 4th with 9.2% (35 votes). Meretz down from 19% (74 votes) to 13.4% (51 votes), Yesh Atid up from 18% (70 votes) to 41.8% (121 votes)

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

In a vegan commune where some of my friends live, the antivax party grew from 4.6% (18 votes) to 7.6% (29 votes), while RZ grew from 3.9% (15 votes) to 13.7% (52 votes). Labor won there last time with 20.3% (79 votes) and now fell to 4th with 9.2% (35 votes). Meretz down from 19% (74 votes) to 13.4% (51 votes), Yesh Atid up from 18% (70 votes) to 41.8% (121 votes)

The antivax thing unfortunately makes sense, but what's the appeal of RZ in a vegan commune?

[Vosem]

In a vegan commune where some of my friends live, the antivax party grew from 4.6% (18 votes) to 7.6% (29 votes), while RZ grew from 3.9% (15 votes) to 13.7% (52 votes). Labor won there last time with 20.3% (79 votes) and now fell to 4th with 9.2% (35 votes). Meretz down from 19% (74 votes) to 13.4% (51 votes), Yesh Atid up from 18% (70 votes) to 41.8% (121 votes)

The antivax thing unfortunately makes sense, but what's the appeal of RZ in a vegan commune?

https://twitter.com/HeTows/status/1588246765580726272

RZ has a little appeal basically everywhere.

[mileslunn]

Jerusalem:
UTJ 23.8% (+0.2%)
Likud 19.1% (-1.5%)
Shas 18.3% (+2.7%)
RZ 14.2% (+4.9%)
Yesh Atid 7.5% (+1.9%)
Statist 5.3% (-1.4% combined with NH)
Meretz 2.8% (-0.9%)
Labor 2.5% (-1.5%)
JH 1.9% (-4.8%)
YB 1.9% (-0.1%)
Hadash-Ta'al 1% (+0.6% combined in JL)
Balad 0.7% (+0.6% combined in JL)
Ra'am 0.3% (+0.1%)

Tel Aviv-Yafo:
Yesh Atic 32.8% (+10.7%)
Likud 17% (+0.04%)
Statist 11% (-3.9% combined with NH)
Meretz 10.9% (-3.1%)
Labor 9.3% (-5.5%)
RZ 4.5% (+2.8%
Shas 4.3% (+0.7%)
YB 3.3% (-0.4%)
Balad 1.5% (+1% combined with Hadash-Ta'al)
Hadash-Ta'al 1.5% (+1% combined with Balad)
UTJ 0.8% (+0.07%)
JH 0.7% (-2.9%)
Ra'am 0.7% (+0.2%)

Huge contrast although not surprising.  Seems like Jerusalem had close to 75% go for Bibi bloc and quite right wing while Tel Aviv Bibi bloc got only around 25% roughly so very much a mix of centrist and left wing.  But no surprise.  Having been to both cities, Jerusalem struck me as a very religious city while Tel Aviv quite secular. 

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

In a vegan commune where some of my friends live, the antivax party grew from 4.6% (18 votes) to 7.6% (29 votes), while RZ grew from 3.9% (15 votes) to 13.7% (52 votes). Labor won there last time with 20.3% (79 votes) and now fell to 4th with 9.2% (35 votes). Meretz down from 19% (74 votes) to 13.4% (51 votes), Yesh Atid up from 18% (70 votes) to 41.8% (121 votes)

The antivax thing unfortunately makes sense, but what's the appeal of RZ in a vegan commune?

https://twitter.com/HeTows/status/1588246765580726272

RZ has a little appeal basically everywhere.

Interesting, and depressing. Thanks.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

F@ck.

[Red Velvet]

The far-right in major rise on Israel with this major advance for the Religious Zionist Party.

Italy and Israel will be the stories of 2022 where they gained ground. Although in Italy governments are always chaotic and never really last long term, we constantly see a far-right party collapsing just to open door for a new different one. In Israel it seems this trend is there to stay, as society is the one increasingly being more off-put by liberal values.

I didn’t even mention Hungary because that was already lost for some time lmao

[Hnv1]

Meretz got more votes than Labour in Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, and most Kibbutz. Labour managed to somehow survive by being slightly more appealing to young voters who aren't from traditional left strongholds. They gave Labour the 15K that saw them over the threshold.
As a matter of fact, it was far closer for Labour than it seem.