Israel 2022 election (November 1st)

[Walmart_shopper]

Leaders of government parties have decided to support a motion to disperse the Knesset and go to new elections. The date hasn't been set, but they'll likely fall on October 25th (depending on the Hewish holiday schedule). Yair Lapid will be prime minister until a new government is formed.

[Walmart_shopper]

Is not Netanyahu being back as PM the most likely scenario if there really is an election?

Yes. Yes it is.

[Walmart_shopper]

It's a board customary rule, since the 2012 fiasco with Moufaz, that we do not start this thread until the Knesset officially dissolves!


This is the first election since I was eligible to vote that I really have no idea who I will vote for.

Turnout is going to be epicly low.

[Walmart_shopper]

It's a board customary rule, since the 2012 fiasco with Moufaz, that we do not start this thread until the Knesset officially dissolves!


This is the first election since I was eligible to vote that I really have no idea who I will vote for.

Turnout is going to be epicly low.

Are you suggesting the choice between "Guy currently on trial for public corruption" and "Most obviously unstable partnership since Molotov and Ribbentrop" isn't an appealing one?

Arab turnout is polling at about 40% lol. It's almost as though watching an Arab party allowing itself to be used primarily as a prop for the occupation and to empower the leader of a right wing settler party is kind of dispiriting and tends to eat away at trust in the political system. It will be funny when Likud is the largest party in the Arab sector, though.

[Walmart_shopper]

Meretz chairman Horowitz stands down. I guess the red powers that be told him his time is up.

Now it's either Yair Golan takes it or Galon is back to save the party

In other words it's Gal'on or throw the thing into the trash.

[Walmart_shopper]

Shaked and Hendel are no more. Shaked will try linking up with old JH and positioning herself between Likud and ZR.

hopefully, she's going home for good that cancerous hag

Surely there’s no chance either of them get in to parliament?

Correct. I think she's flamed out.

[Walmart_shopper]

Israel can yall please not do whatever the f*** it looks like yall are currently on pace to do? My sanity would appreciate it.

Tell us about it my man.

But honestly I just don't think he'll suddenly get 61. We'll see.

[Walmart_shopper]

When will we know results?

Exit polls are normally accurate and results will start to be known during the early hours of the morning.

Exit polls are rarely wildly inaccurate, but they do have a tendency to inflate the size of the right wing bloc by at least a couple seats. Usually they are revised within a couple hours once results start to come in.

[Walmart_shopper]

As of 10am 15.9% have already voted, the largest 10am turnout since 1981

[Walmart_shopper]

As of 10am 15.9% have already voted, the largest 10am turnout since 1981

I'd say high turnout generally benefits the right. But, we can't know if morning turnout will have a bearing on overall turnout

Maybe, although I think it's probably safer to assume that a higher turnout is due to a high vote percentage in the Arab sector. While Jewish turnout has varied a little bit over the last several elections Arab turnout has been the primary driver in whether overall turnout is over or under 70%.

I've seen scattered reports that turnout is slightly higher in the Arab sector and much higher in the Negev. But we'll just have to see over the day whst happens.

[Walmart_shopper]

As of 10am 15.9% have already voted, the largest 10am turnout since 1981

I'd say high turnout generally benefits the right. But, we can't know if morning turnout will have a bearing on overall turnout

Maybe, although I think it's probably safer to assume that a higher turnout is due to a high vote percentage in the Arab sector. While Jewish turnout has varied a little bit over the last several elections Arab turnout has been the primary driver in whether overall turnout is over or under 70%.

I've seen scattered reports that turnout is slightly higher in the Arab sector and much higher in the Negev. But we'll just have to see over the day whst happens.

By Negev do you mean Bedouin villages or Beer Sheba?

Also, for all Hebrew readers, election day bingo I made for my friends:

Haha. True. But I think they were talking about the Arab vote in the Negev.

[Walmart_shopper]

Ah, right. Just saw what you posted above. That high turnout could benefit the rightwing. And, any reports on Arab turnout?

From my experience in previous elections, turnout reports for specific sectors are unreliable. If you look for rumours, you will just encounter completely contradictory reports.

Also, we don't even know if turnout will remain high by the end of the day, there is rain forecast for the afternoon, so it's possible  some people decided to vote earlier than usual to avoid it.

I mean anecdotal stuff can be unreliable but because Israel is a segregated society it's very easy to determine who is voting simply based on city or neighborhood--data that is in fact reliable and accurate. If Bnai Brak has extremely high turnout you don't have to he a genius to know who that benefits even if it's less clear precisely which of two or three parties those votes are going to.

[Walmart_shopper]

Does the higher turnout means that anti-Bibi voters are turning out?

We live in the Bad Timeline so it means low info Likud voters are turnout out to vote

Israel has a very high participation rate except for two groups--Arabs (20% of the country) and low information, usually Mizrahi voters in the periphery (maybe 10-15% of the country?). Either group can drive a turnout bump and the wild thing is that either group can swing a new election dramatically just by showing up or not.

[Walmart_shopper]

Does the higher turnout means that anti-Bibi voters are turning out?

We live in the Bad Timeline so it means low info Likud voters are turnout out to vote

Ah, right. Just saw what you posted above. That high turnout could benefit the rightwing. And, any reports on Arab turnout?

At this point the reports on Arab turnout are mostly just spin. It sounds like Arab turnout increased but maybe not as much as the increase in Jewish turnout? I wouldn't put much stock in any of that until we start seeing actual numbers from different cities to compare with previous elections.

[Walmart_shopper]

2pm turnout at 38.9%.

Still the highest turnout since 1999, but it's definitely slowing down. Fueled by a high Arab turnout 2020 saw a 2pm turnout of 38.1%, so this year will likely finish with high but not record-busting turnout. Turnout in 2020 was 71% and I suspect we will wind up close to that this year.

[Walmart_shopper]

Turnout at 4pm is 47.5%, still the highest since 1999.

Are there any regional patterns of this turnout surge to give us a sense if these are pro-Likud or anti-Likud voters?

Nothing official. The Bedouin Negev looks very good, which leaves everyone fairly certain that Raam will clear the threshold. Other than that reports are extremely contradictory--parties use fear-mongering about turnout to squeeze more voters into their stack. There isn't even agreement about how high overall turnout will go, which matters a lot to the smaller parties fighting to get to 3.25%.

[Walmart_shopper]

Solid Bibi win.

Maybe, but the Arab sector is on fire right now. They'll probably get to at least 55% and perhaps even higher, which would likely get Balad across. No way the right wins if all three Arab parties are over the threshold.

[Walmart_shopper]

The 8pm update is 66.3 percent turnout, which is just a touch above 2020 when final turnout was at 71%. If--I'm saying if--Arab turnout is scratching at 60% and general turnout is at 72% then all three Arab parties get in, Bibi is stuck at 58 mandates, and we have a very similar election to 2020. A lot of ifs and I would probably rather be a right wingers at the moment , but this could be dramatic

[Walmart_shopper]

I think Balad gets in. Channel 11 has them .15% away, and the prison vote alone should cover that.

[Walmart_shopper]

This is what happens when a country isn't held accountable for upholding apartheid. South Africa was eventually and they had to change.

Everyone knows why Israel is held to a different standard.

[Walmart_shopper]

If Balad gets in will the pro-Bibi bloc still have a majority?

Probably not.

[Walmart_shopper]

Do we seriously still not have even the turnout figure?

71.3%.

Makes me feel even better about Balad's chances of getting in.

[Walmart_shopper]

I think this is the slowest I've ever seen them count. This is excruciating.

[Walmart_shopper]

12.5K votes counted:
Likud: 23.32%
RZP: 20.48%
Yesh Atid: 18.72%
National Camp: 10.47%
Labour: 6.69%
Shas: 6.09%
Meretz: 5.25%
----3.25% threshold-----
UTJ: 2.88%
JH: 1.75%
Beitenu: 1.56%
Hadash: 0.59%
Balad: 0.54%
RAAM: 0.14%

How you know things are slow: Jerusalem should be biasing the count at this point for the Haredim based on past count tends, but it's not there so the Settlements which previously came in alongside her, are instead the source of bias.

A lot of Jerusalem is in. A lot of the settlements are in. A lot of Haifa is in. But there's very little from Tel Aviv and Bnai Brak, which should help Meretz get our of danger and boost Haredi margins. The question that the whole thing hinges on is what happens with Balad and I can't really tell from what's in whether they're going to make it. Certainly a lot of left wing vote still out bit I'm not sure about Arab votes.

[Walmart_shopper]

1.662M votes counted:
Likud: 23.71%
Yesh Atid: 16.25%
RZP: 11.45%
Shas: 9.21%
National unity: 8.86%
UTJ: 7.57%
Beitenu: 4.27%
Hadash: 3.70%
Labour: 3.27%
----3.25% threshold----
Balad: 3.14%
RAAM: 3.09%
Meretz: 2.67%
JH: 1.38%

Arab party vote ticked up a fair bit in this update

I do think Raam will be fine but Balad and Meretz, and so the whole thing, could go either way. Balad is really performing well in the Arab sector.