Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[jaichind]

Can someone explain to me what the hell Scholz's problem is?
There is a war of conquest in Europe.
Why does Germany even have a defense industry if not for this?

My understanding is he does not want to be the odd man out on this WRT Russia.  Namely, he will give tanks to Ukraine if the USA does the same.  That way Germany does not risk bearing the brunt of any Russian blowback.

[Hindsight was 2020]

LivemapUA seems to concur that Russia made advances to the South of Bakhmut

That sucks. I made a thread today about why I think there's no way the war doesn't become World War III, but it'll certainly happen if Russia achieves its goal of conquering Ukraine.

In what world does the strategically unimportant city of Bakmut turn into the whole of Ukraine? 🙄 Good grief at least when you, Woodbury, and jaichind last summer were treating Russian victories in Lysychansk and Sievierodonetsk as a sign Russia was going to take over Ukraine those were actual major cities

[Middle-aged Europe]

So possibly some German Tanks might end up in Ukraine without German approval?

Personally believe tanks might be over-rated in this current war, mainly because of mobility, but whatever...

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1616149727061344293?s=20&t=Xxdi2d...

Scholz will probably "approve" it IMO for this very reason... as a face-saving measure and all.

Can someone explain to me what the hell Scholz's problem is?
There is a war of conquest in Europe.
Why does Germany even have a defense industry if not for this?

Politically speaking, Olaf Scholz is a master of sitting things out. This is his way of covering his own ass, or at least he thinks so. For him, the first and best course of action is always non-action. Only when he is left with no other choice, he does something. This applies both to foreign affairs and domestic matters, and was often a point of criticism against him in German media these past 13 months.

The thing is, it often seemed to work in his political career in his favour and arguably helped facilitating his ascension to the Chancellorship. For instance, in the 2021 election, all three major candidates - Laschet, Baerbock, Scholz - had their baggages and scandals, but in Scholz' case he and the SPD simply chose to completely shut up about it and as a result they stealthed their way to the top job this way while everyone was distrcted by Laschet and Baerbock.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/dw_politics/status/1616445969280733184

[gerritcole]

Scholz and many Germans carry the war guilt of ww2 heavy on their hearts and souls, they seek to expunge Prussian militarism from their actions

[Virginiá]

Whether or not you buy into America's claims that the Abrams tank is not the right tank for Ukraine due to its maintenance complexity, high logistics requirements and all the other factors the US has stated, it would be utter BS if Germany kept insisting that the US send Abrams first if the US's reasons against it are true. The way Germany is handling this is as if it were a political decision when the US is just reluctant to send Ukraine a fleet of tanks they do not believe can be supported. I know Germany has walked this back the last ~36 hours, but this has essentially been their primary excuse for many months now. In fact it used to be that they just wanted someone else to go first, and it was only after someone else did in fact go first that they changed their mind and said "AKSHUALLY, we want AMERICA to go first"

I don't understand why Germany, a NATO member, needs big daddy US, another NATO member, to go first when the US is already on record supporting tanks, and retaliation against Germany by Russia's military is going to be met with a unified response anyway. Europe's major powers (and many smaller powers as well) are all pretty much on the same page with this, so no one is going to "blame" Germany if Russia lashes out.

[Torie]

Scholz comes across as a weasel who due to cravenness or disingenuousness, refuses to be candid as to the reasons for his policies. That is a really bad combination. I hope someone is chewing him out in private.

[Virginiá]

Poland possibly transferring more T-72 tanks (likely their PT-91 domestic modification) and more IFVs (BWP-1, a domestic mod of the BMP-1).

https://defence24.pl/wojna-na-ukrainie-raport-specjalny-defence24/blaszczak-przekazemy-ukrainie-czolgi-t-72-oraz-bojowe-wozy-piechoty

According to the statement of the head of the Ministry of National Defence, equipment for a brigade-sized unit may be transferred to Ukraine as part of the current package. This could mean 30-40 T-72s and around 80-100 BWP-1s. It is worth emphasizing that the Tallinn Declaration contained information about the transfer of 42 IFV-1s by Poland and the training of two mechanized battalions, which may be part of the aid package being implemented.

As usual the amounts are somewhat ambiguous. The 42 BWP-1s they referenced in the Tallinn Pledge was likely referencing the BWPs Poland sent to Ukraine back in April.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/dw_politics/status/1616445969280733184

They're just now checking the availability of their tanks?

Meanwhile in Ukraine, there was an attempt:

https://twitter.com/Madmechanic911/status/1616433495139655682?s=20&t=1nf0TXj...

[2952-0-0]

https://www.geo.tv/latest/466145-president-putin-to-decide-on-discounted-russian-oil-price-for-pakistan

"President Putin to ‘decide’ on Russian oil price discount for Pakistan"

The $60 Russian oil price cap is in action. Pakistan is looking to switch over to Russia as its energy provider on the premise it will likely get a discount given the fact that Russia will be shut out of collective Western energy markets.  Russia seems game but will work to minimize that discount or will agree to a discount if Pakistan cooperates on other geopolitical issues.  So the oil price cap is having an effect.  Russia will continue to sell energy at a significant profit but that profit will be less than the market rate given the oil price cap.  Also, the price cap will drive a rotation of the world energy markets on which suppliers supply which importers.

I have a Benjamin that says that the Pakistani official in charge of that deal will simply resell the Russian oil on the world market, and split the profit between his Russian counterpart and his mistress in Dubai.

[jaichind]

https://www.geo.tv/latest/466145-president-putin-to-decide-on-discounted-russian-oil-price-for-pakistan

"President Putin to ‘decide’ on Russian oil price discount for Pakistan"

The $60 Russian oil price cap is in action. Pakistan is looking to switch over to Russia as its energy provider on the premise it will likely get a discount given the fact that Russia will be shut out of collective Western energy markets.  Russia seems game but will work to minimize that discount or will agree to a discount if Pakistan cooperates on other geopolitical issues.  So the oil price cap is having an effect.  Russia will continue to sell energy at a significant profit but that profit will be less than the market rate given the oil price cap.  Also, the price cap will drive a rotation of the world energy markets on which suppliers supply which importers.

I have a Benjamin that says that the Pakistani official in charge of that deal will simply resell the Russian oil on the world market, and split the profit between his Russian counterpart and his mistress in Dubai.

Sure, either way, it fits the narrative of the oil price cap is burning collective West money to get Russia to burn some of its money.  Russia still makes money due to still elevated energy prices but less than it would otherwise make without the price cap.  In that sense the price cap is working but not fatal.

[jaichind]

Russian sources claim a Russian offensive in Zaporozhye.  If true most likely a way to limit Ukraine's ability to reinforce its forces in Donbas.

[Storr]

Russian sources claim a Russian offensive in Zaporozhye.  If true most likely a way to limit Ukraine's ability to reinforce its forces in Donbas.

And I claim Cuba as a territory of the US:

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1616522221945606145?s=20&t=tx5b8oDNLYszPq...

[Storr]

The Russian "opposition" having a normal one:

https://twitter.com/mbk_center/status/1616434893772435460?s=20&t=-D_uCU1Wokh...

[jaichind]

https://www.barrons.com/news/ukraine-should-focus-on-preparing-offensive-not-bakhmut-battle-us-official-01674237008

"Ukraine Should Focus On Preparing Offensive, Not Bakhmut Battle: US Official"

AFP reports that a USA "senior official" tells Ukraine to not focus on Bakhmut  (implying that perhaps Ukraine should give up Bakhmut) and instead focus on counteroffensives elsewhere. 

[2952-0-0]

Sure, either way, it fits the narrative of the oil price cap is burning collective West money to get Russia to burn some of its money.  Russia still makes money due to still elevated energy prices but less than it would otherwise make without the price cap.  In that sense the price cap is working but not fatal.

But how is the oil price cap costing the west anything? The price of Brent and West Texas crude oil has fallen below pre-February 24, 2022 levels, so the loss of Russian crude in the EU hasn't led to the economic chaos that Putin was hoping for. Meanwhile, the price of Urals crude has fallen far below even the $60/barrel cap. Putin himself is of course claiming the economic loss won't affect the special-military-operation-effort, but the actual economists are deeply worried.

https://www.ft.com/content/8a5f4681-9592-469f-b223-a939dcbbf3f3

Back when the idea of the price cap was first floated, Putin threatened to refuse to sell to any buyer that adhered to the cap, and even promised to assemble a vast fleet of tankers that would disregard it. In other words, Putin was literally banking on a surge in fuel prices to force the west to acquiesce to his demands. None of that has happened. Instead, the western powers successfully forced a budgetary crisis on the Russian state at zero cost to their own economies. And, the more that Russian state officials are profiting off the resale of cheap Russian crude, the more corrupted the Russian state apparatus.

This isn't, by itself, fatal. But the whole basis of Putin's plan for victory - that the west will tire of economic costs caused by its sanctions and acquiesce to Russian demands - has completely backfired.

[Storr]

The Russian "opposition" having a normal one:

https://twitter.com/mbk_center/status/1616434893772435460?s=20&t=-D_uCU1Wokh...

Russia is a strange place:

https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1616496687559905281?s=20&t=zZafvL4L...

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

So everyone talking about Bakhmut realizes this was a 5 month operation in which Russia had taken extreme casualties to advance the front a few kms, and during that same period they lost all of Kharkiv and the city of Kherson

[jaichind]

Sure, either way, it fits the narrative of the oil price cap is burning collective West money to get Russia to burn some of its money.  Russia still makes money due to still elevated energy prices but less than it would otherwise make without the price cap.  In that sense the price cap is working but not fatal.

But how is the oil price cap costing the west anything? The price of Brent and West Texas crude oil has fallen below pre-February 24, 2022 levels, so the loss of Russian crude in the EU hasn't led to the economic chaos that Putin was hoping for. Meanwhile, the price of Urals crude has fallen far below even the $60/barrel cap. Putin himself is of course claiming the economic loss won't affect the special-military-operation-effort, but the actual economists are deeply worried.

https://www.ft.com/content/8a5f4681-9592-469f-b223-a939dcbbf3f3

Back when the idea of the price cap was first floated, Putin threatened to refuse to sell to any buyer that adhered to the cap, and even promised to assemble a vast fleet of tankers that would disregard it. In other words, Putin was literally banking on a surge in fuel prices to force the west to acquiesce to his demands. None of that has happened. Instead, the western powers successfully forced a budgetary crisis on the Russian state at zero cost to their own economies. And, the more that Russian state officials are profiting off the resale of cheap Russian crude, the more corrupted the Russian state apparatus.

This isn't, by itself, fatal. But the whole basis of Putin's plan for victory - that the west will tire of economic costs caused by its sanctions and acquiesce to Russian demands - has completely backfired.

Everything should be relative to an alternative world w/o a price cap.

Oil prices have gone down because
a) Mild winter so far - for sure a defeat for Putin's plans
b) Likely economic recession in many parts of the world

There has been a slight resurgence in betting on a V-shaped PRC economic surge in 2023 on top of the end of the COVID-19 lockdown but that is a crapshoot right now.

The fact that Russia will not sell oil on any tanker with an oil cap means the collective west is buying energy at a higher rate than a rate without a price cap.  Just like Russia is now selling oil at a price below the price that it would sell without a price cap.  So the best way to think about that would be "collective West burns cash to make Russia burn cash"

[jaichind]

So everyone talking about Bakhmut realizes this was a 5 month operation in which Russia had taken extreme casualties to advance the front a few kms, and during that same period they lost all of Kharkiv and the city of Kherson

Totally agree that Ukraine has held on in Bakhmut a lot longer than I would have thought and they are still there. I think it is pure speculation on how many losses Russia and Ukraine took in the battle and the win/loss ratio in terms of casualties.   I am skeptical of claims from both sides about the losses they inflicted on the other side.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/War_cube_/status/1616450016905682944
https://twitter.com/War_cube_/status/1616387852643745792?cxt=HHwWgICygYSMyO4sAAA...
https://twitter.com/War_cube_/status/1616442905857499139?cxt=HHwWhoCxtcaQ4e4sAAA...

[jaichind]

If history is any guide eventually Germany will buckle and send the tanks to Ukraine.  Throughout this entire conflict, the German government has drawn some lines on what it will not do but ends up being pressured (by a combo of USA, other European states, other collective West influencers, etc) into crossing the lines they have drawn just days or weeks before.

[Torie]

Sure, either way, it fits the narrative of the oil price cap is burning collective West money to get Russia to burn some of its money.  Russia still makes money due to still elevated energy prices but less than it would otherwise make without the price cap.  In that sense the price cap is working but not fatal.

But how is the oil price cap costing the west anything? The price of Brent and West Texas crude oil has fallen below pre-February 24, 2022 levels, so the loss of Russian crude in the EU hasn't led to the economic chaos that Putin was hoping for. Meanwhile, the price of Urals crude has fallen far below even the $60/barrel cap. Putin himself is of course claiming the economic loss won't affect the special-military-operation-effort, but the actual economists are deeply worried.

https://www.ft.com/content/8a5f4681-9592-469f-b223-a939dcbbf3f3

Back when the idea of the price cap was first floated, Putin threatened to refuse to sell to any buyer that adhered to the cap, and even promised to assemble a vast fleet of tankers that would disregard it. In other words, Putin was literally banking on a surge in fuel prices to force the west to acquiesce to his demands. None of that has happened. Instead, the western powers successfully forced a budgetary crisis on the Russian state at zero cost to their own economies. And, the more that Russian state officials are profiting off the resale of cheap Russian crude, the more corrupted the Russian state apparatus.

This isn't, by itself, fatal. But the whole basis of Putin's plan for victory - that the west will tire of economic costs caused by its sanctions and acquiesce to Russian demands - has completely backfired.

Everything should be relative to an alternative world w/o a price cap.

Oil prices have gone down because
a) Mild winter so far - for sure a defeat for Putin's plans
b) Likely economic recession in many parts of the world

There has been a slight resurgence in betting on a V-shaped PRC economic surge in 2023 on top of the end of the COVID-19 lockdown but that is a crapshoot right now.

The fact that Russia will not sell oil on any tanker with an oil cap means the collective west is buying energy at a higher rate than a rate without a price cap.  Just like Russia is now selling oil at a price below the price that it would sell without a price cap.  So the best way to think about that would be "collective West burns cash to make Russia burn cash"

That's the idea. The West has more cash to burn. The idea is to find as many ways to burn Russia cash as possible, and if it can't be burned, to freeze it for war reparations. We will know that the job is done when Putin is on the streets holding a sign, "will work for food."

[Woody]

Don't know if it's an offensive currently happening(Russia really going for it) or a ruse, think it's the latter. We will find out in a few hours.. Russia thinking they can do their own Kharkiv offensive in the south?

https://mobile.twitter.com/Suriyakmaps/status/1616571755757199363?cxt=HHwWhoCz_c...

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://twitter.com/ListyLiterackie/status/1616508986429444103