Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Woody]

Satellite images show close to two dozen long-range bombers and cruise missiles being prepared for combat at the Engels-Two airfield, near Saratov Oblast in Russia. Ukraine military officials assume they will be used to increase strikes on ground targets

[Person Man]

Satellite images show close to two dozen long-range bombers and cruise missiles being prepared for combat at the Engels-Two airfield, near Saratov Oblast in Russia. Ukraine military officials assume they will be used to increase strikes on ground targets

They have some balls to roll out the long range 4 engine bombers.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Tendar/status/1598274927769309185

[Hollywood]

Amazing Video coming out of Soledar.  The town has been completely destroyed. 
https://rumble.com/v1y3ffc-the-shelling-of-v.s.u.-positions-in-soledar..html

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Satellite images show close to two dozen long-range bombers and cruise missiles being prepared for combat at the Engels-Two airfield, near Saratov Oblast in Russia. Ukraine military officials assume they will be used to increase strikes on ground targets

They have some balls to roll out the long range 4 engine bombers.

Not really. The strategic bombers are vulnerable to air defences if they get close, so they've been used in only two roles: close-range bombing of Azovstal (after local air defences were wrecked like nowhere else) and as "missile trucks." The bombers avoid vulnerability by firing long-range, stand-off missiles from within Russia, which can be pretty impactful (although it's much less effective than the kind of strategic bombing possible when air defences are weak enough).

I'm not knocking Woodbury's post because it's useful information but the caption "Major offensive in the making?" is clickbait. These have been used regularly throughout the war in missile barrages, most of which have not started an offensive.

[Torie]

This article by a think tank about the lessons learned from the Ukraine War is interesting. While Zelensky blew off in public the US alert that Putin was about to attack to avoid panic, he did disperse munitions stockpiles, and aircraft and air-defense systems, so the Russian initial blitz left such mostly intact. Russian reaction time from target pinpointing to hitting it took a day or two, by which time the target was no longer there. Keep moving no matter what because you can’t hide from Mordor’s eye for long. And early on, what saved the day was old fashioned artillery, chewing up the long Russian line to Kyiv. And Ukraine had a ton of artillery, more than the European NATO countries, so it was all good - until it ran out of ammunition.

Low tech quantity still matters, and the West had its pants down on its supplies of that, and worse, the ability to produce it. It seems to me the entire military-industrial complex needs a revamping.

And then a discussion of the use and abuse and limitations of drones and electronic warfare. Good stuff. While the war is horrible for humanity and very dangerous, it's great for giving war colleges and think tanks new material to work with.

https://www.economist.com/europe/2022/11/30/what-is-the-war-in-ukraine-teaching-western-armies

[Stranger in a strange land]

This article by a think tank about the lessons learned from the Ukraine War is interesting. While Zelensky blew off in public the US alert that Putin was about to attack to avoid panic, he did disperse munitions stockpiles, and aircraft and air-defense systems, so the Russian initial blitz left such mostly intact. Russian reaction time from target pinpointing to hitting it took a day or two, by which time the target was no longer there. Keep moving no matter what because you can’t hide from Mordor’s eye for long. And early on, what saved the day was old fashioned artillery, chewing up the long Russian line to Kyiv. And Ukraine had a ton of artillery, more than the European NATO countries, so it was all good - until it ran out of ammunition.

Low tech quantity still matters, and the West had its pants down on its supplies of that, and worse, the ability to produce it. It seems to me the entire military-industrial complex needs a revamping.

And then a discussion of the use and abuse and limitations of drones and electronic warfare. Good stuff. While the war is horrible for humanity and very dangerous, it's great for giving war colleges and think tanks new material to work with.

https://www.economist.com/europe/2022/11/30/what-is-the-war-in-ukraine-teaching-western-armies

One big and undersold lesson of the war (that for some reason seems to need to be relearned at the start of every major war) is the importance of having large, well-maintained, and dispersed stockpiles of ammunition, as well as production lines that can easily be started  or scaled-up.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-war-europe-ukraine-gas-inflation-reduction-act-ira-joe-biden-rift-west-eu-accuses-us-of-profiting-from-war/

"Europe accuses US of profiting from war"

I think this is about political cover for EU politicians on the current sanctions blowback by blaming it on the Americans.

[Torie]

Satellite images show close to two dozen long-range bombers and cruise missiles being prepared for combat at the Engels-Two airfield, near Saratov Oblast in Russia. Ukraine military officials assume they will be used to increase strikes on ground targets

They have some balls to roll out the long range 4 engine bombers.

Not really. The strategic bombers are vulnerable to air defences if they get close, so they've been used in only two roles: close-range bombing of Azovstal (after local air defences were wrecked like nowhere else) and as "missile trucks." The bombers avoid vulnerability by firing long-range, stand-off missiles from within Russia, which can be pretty impactful (although it's much less effective than the kind of strategic bombing possible when air defences are weak enough).

I'm not knocking Woodbury's post because it's useful information but the caption "Major offensive in the making?" is clickbait. These have been used regularly throughout the war in missile barrages, most of which have not started an offensive.

NATO needs to give Ukraine a 1,000 tanks with which to cut through Russian lines - presumably to the Sea of Azov to slice and dice the Russian forces. What do our war department experts think of that comment from the Kings College chap? The Brits do seem to have the best commentators on all of this.

[Woody]

Wagner south of Bakhmut - next settlement on their sights is Klischiivka.
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1598348374914342912
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1598345241546952704
https://twitter.com/miladvisor/status/1598350308878557187

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I've been getting a kick out of the collective decadent-Western-concern-troll attempt to reframe Russia's obsessive tactical focus on Bakhmut, a city about the size of Schenectady along a frontline that they should by rights be able to consolidate quite easily, as some sort of masterclass in pressing an advantage. Keep it up, guys!

[Hindsight was 2020]

I've been getting a kick out of the collective decadent-Western-concern-troll attempt to reframe Russia's obsessive tactical focus on Bakhmut, a city about the size of Schenectady along a frontline that they should by rights be able to consolidate quite easily, as some sort of masterclass in pressing an advantage. Keep it up, guys!

Tbf it’s mainly 1 poster and a handful of online tankie in pure cope mode

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Germany has just pledged 7 more Gepard air defence systems, which seem to have an excellent reputation in Ukraine. However, there is a problem looming for them: ammunition shortage. The American bureaucracy issues mentioned up-thread were bad, but they pale in comparison to the German ones.

Through September, Germany supplied the ammunition it had which wasn't Swiss-made, then hit a wall because they only buy new ammunition from a German company's factory in Switzerland. They'd anticipated this for months and at the end of July, you may recall that there was a report about the testing of new Norwegian ammunition for the Gepard. The testing had failed, but was expected to be retried the following month. A Norwegian arms supplier now shows a Gepard on one of the ammunition types it offers, but only on the training ammunition. This, and the lack of any further ammunition deliveries, suggested that regular ammunition remained incompatible.

A few days ago, the German company in question  - Rheinmetall - moved forward with a purchase of a Spanish munitions factory, which is expected to be finalised next summer. Rheinmetall said they might move forward with production of Gepard ammunition in the Spanish factory, but we can infer that the beginning of this process is at least 6 months away.

So, what of the Norwegian ammunition? The Norwegian company recently stated that, besides training ammunition, they do not produce ammunition that works properly with the Gepard. They do produce a very similar type, but have received no sales, orders, or formal requests, and claim they'd need technical information about the Gepards to produce ammunition which worked properly with them. It seems likely to me that Rheinmetall is unwilling to provide this information as it's a trade secret, but I'd have thought this could be negotiated by the German government. It would be short-sighted, but unsurprising, if they delayed deal-making until there was no more ammunition left.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I've been getting a kick out of the collective decadent-Western-concern-troll attempt to reframe Russia's obsessive tactical focus on Bakhmut, a city about the size of Schenectady along a frontline that they should by rights be able to consolidate quite easily, as some sort of masterclass in pressing an advantage. Keep it up, guys!

Tbf it’s mainly 1 poster and a handful of online tankie in pure cope mode

something something horse shoe theory.

[Mopsus]

I’m confused, where are the pictures and videos of villagers around Bakhmut greeting the Wagnerites as liberators? I thought Russian-speaking Ukrainians supported Russia? :/

[CanadianDemocrat]

I've been getting a kick out of the collective decadent-Western-concern-troll attempt to reframe Russia's obsessive tactical focus on Bakhmut, a city about the size of Schenectady along a frontline that they should by rights be able to consolidate quite easily, as some sort of masterclass in pressing an advantage. Keep it up, guys!

The Vatniks have been coping and seething since they retreated from Kherson and Kharkiv, they have been desperate for a win. Russia hasn't taken a big Ukrainian city since Lysychansk 5 months ago. 

[NOVA Green]

Looks like the US might be stepping into the role, which the UK had previously done in a major way, of significantly expanding training for Ukrainian troops.

Reality is that if this going to end up being a "long war" versus some type of negotiated settlement, one of the major issues for Ukraine is not the lack of willing volunteers, but rather developing a much more skilled training of "new soldiers", to be able to outpace Russian "Mass Mobilization" efforts.

Thoughts... Atlas Hive?

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and other top Pentagon officials are weighing a major expansion in training for the Ukrainian military, a move that could significantly enhance its ability to evict Russian forces from occupied areas even as it deepens U.S. involvement in the war.

The plan, under discussion for weeks, according to senior U.S. defense officials, would build on the billions of dollars in weaponry and other aid Washington has provided Ukraine by showing its military how to wage a more sophisticated campaign against the struggling Russian army.

It would see Ukrainian combat units with hundreds, or possibly even thousands of troops, training together in Grafenwoehr, Germany, where the U.S. military has instructed Ukrainian forces in smaller numbers for years. Austin is keen to boost Ukraine’s ability to maneuver on the battlefield with a more modern style of warfare that relies less on launching thousands of rounds of artillery per day at Russian troops in what has become a grinding, bloody war of attrition.

Austin is known to favor the significantly expanded U.S. training program, along with similar programs for tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers to be undertaken by Britain, European Union countries and others such as Norway. Germany alone plans to train 5,000 troops by June under the E.U. initiative, at German military combat simulation centers and battalion command posts.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/12/01/ukraine-us-military-training/

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russia-factory-activity-grows-fastest-pace-almost-six-years-nov-pmi-2022-12-01/

"Russia factory activity grows at fastest pace in almost six years in Nov-PMI"

 S&P Global Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) index rose to 53.2 vs the expected 50.7.  Part of this of course is the base effect of a bounce back from a big drop earlier in the year.  But is it clear that on a QoQ basis the Russian economy is on a recovery path.  This number is part of the expected short-term import substitution boom even as the sanctions will clearly have long-term harm.  It looks more and more like the 2022 Russia GDP drop will be more like -3% and not the -4% to -5% that is what is CW.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/SampieriFranco2/status/1598613195085647872

[Torie]

Looks like the US might be stepping into the role, which the UK had previously done in a major way, of significantly expanding training for Ukrainian troops.

Reality is that if this going to end up being a "long war" versus some type of negotiated settlement, one of the major issues for Ukraine is not the lack of willing volunteers, but rather developing a much more skilled training of "new soldiers", to be able to outpace Russian "Mass Mobilization" efforts.

Thoughts... Atlas Hive?

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and other top Pentagon officials are weighing a major expansion in training for the Ukrainian military, a move that could significantly enhance its ability to evict Russian forces from occupied areas even as it deepens U.S. involvement in the war.

The plan, under discussion for weeks, according to senior U.S. defense officials, would build on the billions of dollars in weaponry and other aid Washington has provided Ukraine by showing its military how to wage a more sophisticated campaign against the struggling Russian army.

It would see Ukrainian combat units with hundreds, or possibly even thousands of troops, training together in Grafenwoehr, Germany, where the U.S. military has instructed Ukrainian forces in smaller numbers for years. Austin is keen to boost Ukraine’s ability to maneuver on the battlefield with a more modern style of warfare that relies less on launching thousands of rounds of artillery per day at Russian troops in what has become a grinding, bloody war of attrition.

Austin is known to favor the significantly expanded U.S. training program, along with similar programs for tens of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers to be undertaken by Britain, European Union countries and others such as Norway. Germany alone plans to train 5,000 troops by June under the E.U. initiative, at German military combat simulation centers and battalion command posts.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/12/01/ukraine-us-military-training/

It should have been done months ago. Since Putin has tossed all the off ramps into the Sea of Azov, and NATO is not going to be sending in troops, this War and the outcome most of "the hive" desires is going to have to be defined by quality over quantity.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Tendar/status/1598620945391833088

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/SampieriFranco2/status/1598613195085647872

Maybe I’m being cynical, but this reads like the prelude to another prisoner exchange (perhaps one in which Russia hopes for better terms than usual). These have been happening pretty regularly ever since Kharkiv, Kherson and the mobilisation, and if Russia was willing to release officers and foreign fighters sentenced to death, they’re unlikely to have difficulty doing the same for these guys.

[Virginiá]

More on air defense:

U.S. looks to shift air defense systems from Middle East to Ukraine, Raytheon chief says

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/12/01/raytheon-air-defense-ukraine-middle-east-00071687

The U.S. is working with Middle Eastern countries to move a handful of their air defense systems to Ukraine, according to the CEO of Raytheon Technologies.

The goal is to send National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile Systems to Ukraine in the next three to six months, CEO Greg Hayes said in an interview. The U.S. would then backfill those systems with new NASAMS in the Middle East over the next 24 months.

[...]

It takes two years to build NASAMS because of the lead time required to buy electronic components and rocket motors, Hayes said.

Oman signed a contract with Raytheon in 2014 for NASAMS, with delivery in 2016. The U.S. cleared Qatar to buy NASAMS in 2019. The government notifications did not outline how many systems Oman and Qatar would buy.

[Woody]

Svatove front:

https://twitter.com/War_cube_/status/1598632577241296897?cxt=HHwWgsCtzf32va8sAAA...
https://twitter.com/War_cube_/status/1598625892317761536
https://twitter.com/ukraineunited3/status/1598697837206073344

[Illiniwek]

https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/vladimir-putin-fell-down-stairs-at-home-and-soiled-himself/

Russian leader Vladimir Putin fell down the stairs at his official residence and soiled himself, according to claims made on a Telegram channel with purported links to his inner circle.

Putin, 70, suffered the fall at home on Wednesday evening, the Telegram channel SVR claimed.

He suffered a bruised coccyx after falling down five steps, rolled on to his side and then down a further two steps.

The channel claimed he soiled himself due to the sharp impact and claims he is suffering gastrointestinal cancer, with no concrete evidence to support the claim.

I mean....