Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Torie]

The Pope should just stop talking about Ukraine. He steps in it again. I wonder whether his mental acuity is in decline. This one seems at once pointless and wrong, and what on earth motivated the comment?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/29/interview-pope-francis-fury-russia

[jaichind]

https://www.ft.com/content/81db1e45-6ef9-4034-879b-82597e2b87f9

"Europe’s imports of Russian seaborne gas jump to record high"

So instead of importing Russian gas via NS2 the same gas in being imported as LNG at a higher price.

[Torie]

This article discusses the prospects of Ukraine taking back Crimea. The prospects appear grim to me, particular the bit that the bulk of the population still there wants to be Russian. The plan would be to cut Crimea off and starve it out, but that would make for very bad press. And the fall of Crimea would mean the fall of Putin, and do there is that. The last couple of sentences are mine, and not in the article.

I found the sentence below interesting however. Is that why Ukraine so far is winning the war?

A source in military intelligence is confident that Ukraine’s structural advantages, principally its ability to stage highly mobile hit-and-run attacks and break up supply lines, will prevail. “We’ve demonstrated at every stage that our tactics and focus on logistics are correct. We will show it again,” the source says.

https://www.economist.com/europe/2022/11/27/a-ukrainian-attempt-to-retake-crimea-would-be-bloody-and-difficult

[nicholas.slaydon]

This article discusses the prospects of Ukraine taking back Crimea. The prospects appear grim to me, particular the bit that the bulk of the population still there wants to be Russian. The plan would be to cut Crimea off and starve it out, but that would make for very bad press. And the fall of Crimea would mean the fall of Putin, and do there is that. The last couple of sentences are mine, and not in the article.

I found the sentence below interesting however. Is that why Ukraine so far is winning the war?

A source in military intelligence is confident that Ukraine’s structural advantages, principally its ability to stage highly mobile hit-and-run attacks and break up supply lines, will prevail. “We’ve demonstrated at every stage that our tactics and focus on logistics are correct. We will show it again,” the source says.

https://www.economist.com/europe/2022/11/27/a-ukrainian-attempt-to-retake-crimea-would-be-bloody-and-difficult

I've seen this claimed quite frequently, and it does seem to be the conventional wisdom, but is there any actual evidence to back it up? There might have been some truth to it back in 2014, but is there any evidence that it is still true today?

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1597514410288816129?s=20&t=UaXEjy...

[Cassius]

This article discusses the prospects of Ukraine taking back Crimea. The prospects appear grim to me, particular the bit that the bulk of the population still there wants to be Russian. The plan would be to cut Crimea off and starve it out, but that would make for very bad press. And the fall of Crimea would mean the fall of Putin, and do there is that. The last couple of sentences are mine, and not in the article.

I found the sentence below interesting however. Is that why Ukraine so far is winning the war?

A source in military intelligence is confident that Ukraine’s structural advantages, principally its ability to stage highly mobile hit-and-run attacks and break up supply lines, will prevail. “We’ve demonstrated at every stage that our tactics and focus on logistics are correct. We will show it again,” the source says.

https://www.economist.com/europe/2022/11/27/a-ukrainian-attempt-to-retake-crimea-would-be-bloody-and-difficult

I've seen this claimed quite frequently, and it does seem to be the conventional wisdom, but is there any actual evidence to back it up? There might have been some truth to it back in 2014, but is there any evidence that it is still true today?

I mean, if Russia's strategy of winning hearts and minds in the southern and western oblasts of Ukraine by bombing them hasn't worked then I fail to see how a Ukrainian strategy of winning hearts and minds in the Crimea by starving them will be any more successful.

[jaichind]

I mean, if Russia's strategy of winning hearts and minds in the southern and western oblasts of Ukraine by bombing them hasn't worked then I fail to see how a Ukrainian strategy of winning hearts and minds in the Crimea by starving them will be any more successful.

I think both tactics are more effective than one would think.  I go back to Machiavelli's "It is better to be feared than to be loved, if one cannot be both."   And for sure being seen as ineffective is the kiss of death for regimes.  Both sides are trying to make the other side look ineffective.

[jaichind]

The entire debate over Russia's oil price cap levels now will become Poland ($30) vs Greek shippers ($70)

[jaichind]

https://news.az/news/european-commission-it-is-estimated-that-more-than-100000-ukrainian-soldiers-have-died-since-the-start-of-the-war

"European Commission: It is estimated that more than 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers have died since the start of the war"

I suspect she meant killed and wounded.

[Woody]

Kurdyumivka has been abandoned.

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1597870593554407424?cxt=HHwWgIDT3di146wsA...
https://twitter.com/War_cube_/status/1597917142011125760

[Woody]

Map of Bakhmut (Andriivka still unknown)

https://twitter.com/War_cube_/status/1597926503014346752

[Antonio the Sixth]

The current Crimean population "wants to be Russian" because a large chunk of it are literally Russians whom Putin encouraged to settle there, after he had deported the Tatars and other groups who very much did not want to be Russian. In other words, exactly what he's trying to do with Eastern Ukraine now.

Settling the situation there will be a mess no matter what, but using Putin's ethnic cleansing as justification for Crimea remaining Russian is a dangerous logic to uncritically accept.

[CumbrianLefty]

I mean, if Russia's strategy of winning hearts and minds in the southern and western oblasts of Ukraine by bombing them hasn't worked then I fail to see how a Ukrainian strategy of winning hearts and minds in the Crimea by starving them will be any more successful.

I think both tactics are more effective than one would think.  I go back to Machiavelli's "It is better to be feared than to be loved, if one cannot be both."   And for sure being seen as ineffective is the kiss of death for regimes.  Both sides are trying to make the other side look ineffective.

The problem with fear is (and always has been) that it works until it doesn't.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Tired: putting stealth into fighter jets by spending one morbillion dollars on the latest design.

Wired: putting stealth into fighter jets by visiting the local library.

https://www.twitter.com/shashj/status/1597946609215471621

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1597977112795058177?cxt=HHwWgsDU9fbtk60...
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1597950730987769856?cxt=HHwWgMDQkafuh60...

[Omega21]

The current Crimean population "wants to be Russian" because a large chunk of it are literally Russians whom Putin encouraged to settle there, after he had deported the Tatars and other groups who very much did not want to be Russian. In other words, exactly what he's trying to do with Eastern Ukraine now.

Settling the situation there will be a mess no matter what, but using Putin's ethnic cleansing as justification for Crimea remaining Russian is a dangerous logic to uncritically accept.

Crimea was precisely 60% Russian & 24% Ukrainian in the official 2001 free UA Census, a clear and undeniable majority.

Putin does something terrible every single day, so I don't see a need to invent fake narratives to attack him lol

[AndyHogan14]

The current Crimean population "wants to be Russian" because a large chunk of it are literally Russians whom Putin encouraged to settle there, after he had deported the Tatars and other groups who very much did not want to be Russian. In other words, exactly what he's trying to do with Eastern Ukraine now.

Settling the situation there will be a mess no matter what, but using Putin's ethnic cleansing as justification for Crimea remaining Russian is a dangerous logic to uncritically accept.

Crimea was precisely 60% Russian & 24% Ukrainian in the official 2001 free UA Census, a clear and undeniable majority.

Putin does something terrible every single day, so I don't see a need to invent fake narratives to attack him lol

Remember, ethnic Russians ≠ pro-joining Russia. There are plenty of ethnic Russians fighting as part of the Ukrainian Armed Forces as we speak. Anyway, it is my view that vote in 2013-14 would have been close, but it is also important to note that there was no significant political support (in the Crimean or Ukrainian Radas) for separation. In fact, the last Verkhovna Rada of Crimea that was actually elected by the people stated that Crimea was and would remain part of Ukraine following Euromaidan. It was a Russian-backed coup in Simferopol that led to Crimea "declaring independence" and joining Russia.

[jaichind]

https://www.thedailybeast.com/european-commission-president-ursula-von-der-leyen-flubs-speech-on-ukraine-war-losses-to-kremlins-delight

"EU Flubs Speech on Ukraine War Losses—to the Kremlin’s Delight"

The death toll was quickly seized on by Russian state media before the video was replaced with a revised version that omitted the staggering figure.

What???  This sounds like 1984.  Just say she misspoke and move on. What is being done sounds a lot like rewriting history.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1598030118131494912?s=20&t=8nFTTekObk9uok...

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1598030126398443520?s=20&t=8nFTTekObk9uok...

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1598039348645330945

[jaichind]

https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2022/11/29/wesley-clark-if-the-artemovsk-trap-clicks-russia-temporarily-wins/

"Wesley Clark: If the Artemovsk trap clicks, Russia temporarily wins"

Wesley Clark seems to think that Russia is trying to turn Bakhmut into some sort of Verdun where it becomes a Killzone for the Ukrainian forces.

[Torie]

https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2022/11/29/wesley-clark-if-the-artemovsk-trap-clicks-russia-temporarily-wins/

"Wesley Clark: If the Artemovsk trap clicks, Russia temporarily wins"

Wesley Clark seems to think that Russia is trying to turn Bakhmut into some sort of Verdun where it becomes a Killzone for the Ukrainian forces.

Absent respective casualty counts, this is idle spam. Normally an entrenched defender extracts more casualties than it takes. And thus, maybe Wes is correct except for transposing the country names.

[Lumine]

You'd think modern military commanders would know better than to try and roleplay as Falkenhayn at Verdun, but if they want to keep trying, I'm fairly confident the Ukrainian military won't be displeased about it.

Gruesome as it might sound, nations facing an existential war - an actual one, not the one Moscow would like to think it is fighting - are not necessarily likely to give up just because you've forced a meat grinder situation without regard for the cost.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2022/11/29/wesley-clark-if-the-artemovsk-trap-clicks-russia-temporarily-wins/

"Wesley Clark: If the Artemovsk trap clicks, Russia temporarily wins"

Wesley Clark seems to think that Russia is trying to turn Bakhmut into some sort of Verdun where it becomes a Killzone for the Ukrainian forces.

But Russia is throwing more into Bakhmut then Ukraine is so this idea fails on its basic premise

[Virginiá]

Obscenely long delays in contracts being awarded, even for systems that have no alternative bids or possible manufacturers, is an underrated complaint. Ukraine's power grid is failing due to incessant Russian strikes, slowly creating a humanitarian crisis, to which the US repeatedly said it would speed up air defense systems as much as it can, only for us to see that it is only just now awarding contracts to actually build the next 6 NASAMS air defense systems they promised to Ukraine months ago.

https://twitter.com/ColbyBadhwar/status/1598098877894504448
https://twitter.com/ColbyBadhwar/status/1598098907778920451

Just the pinnacle of absurdity how contracting rules have not been altered yet for this conflict, especially for cases where it's completely unnecessary.

Some defense contractors have made the decision to invest in expanding production of some systems because they determined that demand was likely going to be much higher (such as HIMARS), but this is the exception, not the rule. Most of the time they are not going to start production until the deal is locked in.

This ought to be a sober reminder for Ukraine that ultimately no matter how bad things get, there is a limit to how much and how fast things will get done for them, because the cost of doing more and doing that faster is either just too much, or requires too much effort that certain people just aren't willing to put in, for whatever reasons.