Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Hindsight was 2020]

The bigger issue at play right now is less the amount of causalities the Russian military is able to tolerate and move on with but the amount causalities the Russian people are willing to tolerate and move on. Because the Soviet disaster in Afghanistan that caused domestic upheaval nor did Vietnam which defined and traumatized an entire generation weren’t this bloody

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Russia hasn't been able to simply keep on trucking, but it has adapted - which is normal.

I'm speaking in the broader sense of this war. Every day Putin and his generals instruct their army to hold their ground or launch operations against the enemy, they are basically keeping on keeping on despite taking on heavy losses and accomplishing nothing of note doing so.

I suspect this isn't completely true. War is negative-sum, and Ukraine's army is not a rock upon which Russia breaks itself. It's likely that even with equal or greater manpower, Russia's force has degraded in Ukraine, but that Ukraine's army has also degraded to some extent. Relative casualty rates and equipment losses/potential replacements are relevant here.

There is, at least, visual evidence of both sides resorting to progressively worse equipment - and we can presume that pre-war contract soldiers were probably of higher quality than most volunteers or mobiks who signed up after February 23.

They've had to retreat and give up some regions for various reasons, and they've suffered considerable losses of manpower and equipment, the latter of which alone is more than many other countries could take, but because of Putin's indifference for the welfare of his people, and their considerable weapon & munition stockpiles, they are able to keep going in spite of the losses.

They are able to keep going in the sense that they're not surrendering outright, and I agree that they are, in many respects, better placed than Ukraine to wage the current war of attrition. That doesn't mean what they're doing is sensible, nor does being able to sustain war for years mean it can be sustained forever.

It also comes with rising political costs, as indicated by the Levada Centre polls and Putin's stage-managed meeting with mothers of the deceased. I'm not optimistic these will amount to much, but he seems somewhat concerned about them. The anti-war sentiment surrounding both conflicts in Afghanistan, as well as the ones in Iraq and Vietnam, took years to reach a critical mass in each case, but it still did so - even though the jingoism was extremely strong at first.

Russia's leaders may be continuing the war effort for now not because they think it will work, but because of their tendency to procrastinate difficult decisions.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Economic scoreboard.  Average investment bank surveys GDP (2022 and 2023) and CPI 2022 for key economies
 
2022 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +2.6%       +4.0%       +3.7%      +4.4%*     +5.1%         +2.8%
March      -9.6%        +3.3%      +3.6%       +4.0%*    +5.0%          +2.4%
April      -10.0%        +2.9%       +3.3%      +3.9%*    +4.9%          +2.2%
May       -10.0%        +2.8%       +2.7%      +3.8%*    +4.5%          +1.9%
June        -9.6%        +2.6%       +2.6%      +3.7%*    +4.1%          +1.8%
July         -8.4%        +2.7%       +2.1%      +3.4%*    +3.9%          +1.6%
Aug         -8.0%        +2.8%       +1.6%      +3.4%*    +3.5%          +1.5%
Sept        -6.0%        +2.9%       +1.6%      +3.5%*    +3.4%          +1.6%
Oct          -4.5%        +3.0%       +1.7%      +4.1%      +3.3%          +1.6%
Nov         -3.9%        +3.1%       +1.8%      +4.1%      +3.3%          +1.5%

* - pre-adjustment. In early Oct UK adjusted its 2020 and 2021 GDP downward lowering the total GDP for both years.  The base effect of that change shifted the 2022 UK GDP growth upward.  All the 2022 GDP projections for the UK before Oct should really be something like 0.6% higher for a like-for-like comparison.

2023 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb          +2.1%      +2.5%        +2.5%       +2.1%     +5.2%        +1.7%
March       -1.5%       +2.5%       +2.3%        +1.9%     +5.2%        +1.8%
April         -0.6%       +2.4%        +2.2%       +1.7%     +5.2%        +1.8%
May          -0.6%       +2.3%        +2.1%       +1.4%     +5.2%        +1.8%
June         -1.5%       +2.1%        +2.0%       +1.2%     +5.3%        +1.8%
July          -2.5%       +1.3%        +1.3%       +0.7%     +5.2%        +1.8%
Aug          -2.7%       +0.9%        +1.1%       +0.5%     +5.2%        +1.7%
Sept         -3.0%       +0.3%        +0.9%       -0.2%      +5.1%        +1.5%
Oct           -3.0%       -0.1%         +0.5%       -0.4%      +4.9%        +1.4%
Nov          -3.2%       -0.2%         +0.3%       -0.8%      +4.9%        +1.2%
 
2022 CPI growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +7.1%       +3.8%       +5.0%      +5.3%       +2.1%         +0.9%
March    +20.0%       +5.2%       +6.1%      +6.3%      +2.2%          +1.3%
April      +21.3%       +6.4%       +6.9%      +7.1%      +2.2%          +1.5%
May       +17.2%       +6.7%       +7.1%      +7.5%      +2.2%          +1.7%
June      +15.7%       +7.0%       +7.5%      +8.1%      +2.2%          +1.9%
July       +14.6%       +7.5%       +7.9%      +8.5%      +2.3%          +2.0%
Aug       +14.2%       +7.9%       +8.1%      +9.0%      +2.3%          +2.0%
Sept      +14.0%       +8.2%       +8.0%      +9.2%      +2.3%          +2.1%
Oct        +13.9%       +8.2%       +8.0%      +9.0%      +2.2%          +2.2%
Nov       +13.8%       +8.5%       +8.1%      +9.1%      +2.2%          +2.3%

Russia's expected 2022 GDP decline continues to converge toward less than what was expected.  Due to base effects, Russia's 2023 numbers get somewhat worse.  The total 2022-2023 Russian GDP drop is now expected to be a bit more than -7% versus ~-11% when the war started.


 The economic projections for 2022  continue to get slightly better in the collective West but 2023 gets significantly worse, especially in the EU and UK.  The inflation situation is stabilizing in Russia and USA while it continues to get worse in the EU and UK.   The COVID-19 lockdowns and real estate bust continue to hit PRC's economic prospects.  At least cheap Russian energy is helping to keep inflation under control.  Japan continues a steady decline in prospects even as CPI slowly edges upwards.

LMAO how did the UK under Truss have a higher growth rate than the US? And how is zero COVID not affecting China?

[Suburbia]

At some point, Western taxpayers will start to get agitated.

When will this war end?

NATO should have removed and struck Putin a long time ago.

NATO is a joke.

[Virginiá]

I suspect this isn't completely true. War is negative-sum, and Ukraine's army is not a rock upon which Russia breaks itself. It's likely that even with equal or greater manpower, Russia's force has degraded in Ukraine, but that Ukraine's army has also degraded to some extent. Relative casualty rates and equipment losses/potential replacements are relevant here.

I wasn't really commenting on the condition of Ukraine's army. Like Russia can keep sustaining itself despite heavy losses even while inflicting heavy damage on Ukraine's forces, that's not in dispute here. I feel like that is basically implied in this war, actually.

FWIW I wouldn't consider Russia degrading Ukraine's military equipment a success of note. If all you're doing is breaking each other's toys and not actually achieving your military objectives, than that isn't something I would consider noteworthy. At least in the sense that, Russia's losses right now still appear to be unsustainable (in the long run) vs the damage they are doing to Ukraine's military. But, again, back to my original point, not so unsustainable that collapse is just right around the corner from the RuAF, even when it seems like that to a casual observer.

I feel like you're talking about different things here so I'm just going to leave it at that.

[jaichind]

Economic scoreboard.  Average investment bank surveys GDP (2022 and 2023) and CPI 2022 for key economies
 
2022 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +2.6%       +4.0%       +3.7%      +4.4%*     +5.1%         +2.8%
March      -9.6%        +3.3%      +3.6%       +4.0%*    +5.0%          +2.4%
April      -10.0%        +2.9%       +3.3%      +3.9%*    +4.9%          +2.2%
May       -10.0%        +2.8%       +2.7%      +3.8%*    +4.5%          +1.9%
June        -9.6%        +2.6%       +2.6%      +3.7%*    +4.1%          +1.8%
July         -8.4%        +2.7%       +2.1%      +3.4%*    +3.9%          +1.6%
Aug         -8.0%        +2.8%       +1.6%      +3.4%*    +3.5%          +1.5%
Sept        -6.0%        +2.9%       +1.6%      +3.5%*    +3.4%          +1.6%
Oct          -4.5%        +3.0%       +1.7%      +4.1%      +3.3%          +1.6%
Nov         -3.9%        +3.1%       +1.8%      +4.1%      +3.3%          +1.5%

* - pre-adjustment. In early Oct UK adjusted its 2020 and 2021 GDP downward lowering the total GDP for both years.  The base effect of that change shifted the 2022 UK GDP growth upward.  All the 2022 GDP projections for the UK before Oct should really be something like 0.6% higher for a like-for-like comparison.

2023 GDP growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb          +2.1%      +2.5%        +2.5%       +2.1%     +5.2%        +1.7%
March       -1.5%       +2.5%       +2.3%        +1.9%     +5.2%        +1.8%
April         -0.6%       +2.4%        +2.2%       +1.7%     +5.2%        +1.8%
May          -0.6%       +2.3%        +2.1%       +1.4%     +5.2%        +1.8%
June         -1.5%       +2.1%        +2.0%       +1.2%     +5.3%        +1.8%
July          -2.5%       +1.3%        +1.3%       +0.7%     +5.2%        +1.8%
Aug          -2.7%       +0.9%        +1.1%       +0.5%     +5.2%        +1.7%
Sept         -3.0%       +0.3%        +0.9%       -0.2%      +5.1%        +1.5%
Oct           -3.0%       -0.1%         +0.5%       -0.4%      +4.9%        +1.4%
Nov          -3.2%       -0.2%         +0.3%       -0.8%      +4.9%        +1.2%
 
2022 CPI growth
              Russia     Eurozone        USA            UK           PRC            Japan
Feb         +7.1%       +3.8%       +5.0%      +5.3%       +2.1%         +0.9%
March    +20.0%       +5.2%       +6.1%      +6.3%      +2.2%          +1.3%
April      +21.3%       +6.4%       +6.9%      +7.1%      +2.2%          +1.5%
May       +17.2%       +6.7%       +7.1%      +7.5%      +2.2%          +1.7%
June      +15.7%       +7.0%       +7.5%      +8.1%      +2.2%          +1.9%
July       +14.6%       +7.5%       +7.9%      +8.5%      +2.3%          +2.0%
Aug       +14.2%       +7.9%       +8.1%      +9.0%      +2.3%          +2.0%
Sept      +14.0%       +8.2%       +8.0%      +9.2%      +2.3%          +2.1%
Oct        +13.9%       +8.2%       +8.0%      +9.0%      +2.2%          +2.2%
Nov       +13.8%       +8.5%       +8.1%      +9.1%      +2.2%          +2.3%

Russia's expected 2022 GDP decline continues to converge toward less than what was expected.  Due to base effects, Russia's 2023 numbers get somewhat worse.  The total 2022-2023 Russian GDP drop is now expected to be a bit more than -7% versus ~-11% when the war started.


 The economic projections for 2022  continue to get slightly better in the collective West but 2023 gets significantly worse, especially in the EU and UK.  The inflation situation is stabilizing in Russia and USA while it continues to get worse in the EU and UK.   The COVID-19 lockdowns and real estate bust continue to hit PRC's economic prospects.  At least cheap Russian energy is helping to keep inflation under control.  Japan continues a steady decline in prospects even as CPI slowly edges upwards.

LMAO how did the UK under Truss have a higher growth rate than the US? And how is zero COVID not affecting China?

1) I think I explained the UK situation before.  This is all about base effects.  By my calculation, the UK underperformed in GDP terms in 2020 and 2021 a total of 6% relative to what was expected WO COVID-19.  In other large economies like USA and PRC, it was more like 1%.  So there is always going to be a bigger bounce back in 2022 for the UK.

2) PRC did get impacted by its unwise COVID-19 lockdowns.  It was expected to grow by 5.2% in 2022 in Feb but fell to 3.3% by Nov.  All this with economic tailwinds of being able to buy Russian energy on the cheap.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1597161254493507585
https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1597020520838332417

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1597204571922657280?cxt=HHwWgMCj8ZDGtKosA...
https://twitter.com/JulianRoepcke/status/1597211916115615749

[Woody]

Tough day for Ukrainians today - Spirne (or "Spornoye" in Russian):

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1597218709491236864?cxt=HHwWgICq_YX9uqosA...
https://twitter.com/UnerkanntW/status/1597217199684743174
https://twitter.com/Vanroelfwolf/status/1597227546009305088

[Woody]

If Klischivka and Andriivka falls, the only thing leaving Bakhmut from an encirclement is Ivanivkse to the city's west.

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1597234125613981697
https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1597228173959499778?cxt=HHwWhMDQ4fmjv6...
https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1597229149911126017?cxt=HHwWgsDQleHcv6...

[NYDem]

Death, taxes, and Woodbury spamming the Ukraine War thread every time Russia advances 500m at Bakhmut.

[CumbrianLefty]

NATO should have removed and struck Putin a long time ago.

NATO is a joke.

Believe it or not, Putin *is* aware of this possibility and has taken measures against it.

If it was really as simple as "take out Putin", this would surely have happened a while ago.

[Torie]

This Andrew guy who Mr. Woodbury has so graciously shared with us above has an update, and the way I read it, is the the Wagner Group is throwing those felons they rounded up out of prison as cannon fodder against the Ukraine line to the south of Bakmut to give them something to do, and/or to make sure that they are dead before their six month "internship" is up, and supposedly they are to be set free, but it's all sound and fury signifying not much else, and Wagner is savvy enough to not mess with Bakmut itself, because then they would be utterly destroyed in short order.

Sir Wood has his little interpretations and I have mine. 

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

This Andrew guy who Mr. Woodbury has so graciously shared with us above has an update, and the way I read it, is the the Wagner Group is throwing those felons they rounded up out of prison as cannon fodder against the Ukraine line to the south of Bakmut to give them something to do, and/or to make sure that they are dead before their six month "internship" is up, and supposedly they are to be set free, but it's all sound and fury signifying not much else, and Wagner is savvy enough to not mess with Bakmut itself, because then they would be utterly destroyed in short order.

Sir Wood has his little interpretations and I have mine.  

They might be rotated out for a bit, but the mobilisation order means they're there as long as the Russian government wants them there or until they get a debilitating injury. The guys with 10-year prison sentences probably aren't too devastated, but the volunteers with the 3-6 month lucrative contracts were the real losers there.

[Torie]

This Andrew guy who Mr. Woodbury has so graciously shared with us above has an update, and the way I read it, is the the Wagner Group is throwing those felons they rounded up out of prison as cannon fodder against the Ukraine line to the south of Bakmut to give them something to do, and/or to make sure that they are dead before their six month "internship" is up, and supposedly they are to be set free, but it's all sound and fury signifying not much else, and Wagner is savvy enough to not mess with Bakmut itself, because then they would be utterly destroyed in short order.

Sir Wood has his little interpretations and I have mine.  

They might be rotated out for a bit, but the mobilisation order means they're there as long as the Russian government wants them there or until they get a debilitating injury. The guys with 10-year prison sentences probably aren't too devastated, but the volunteers with the 3-6 month lucrative contracts were the real losers there.

I posted a link to an article above somewhere, where Wagner went into prisons and said if you sign up for a six month tour of duty, at the end you are free and do not have to go back to prison. That Oxford Professor also said that the Russians have three lines, with the front line being the felons, the next line being the new conscripts, and the back line the trained regular soldiers. The role of the back line is to shoot those from the front line as the retreat without authorization. I guess a codicil is to let the conscripts know that if they get too cheeky and bitchy, there will then be sent to the front line to join the felons.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

This Andrew guy who Mr. Woodbury has so graciously shared with us above has an update, and the way I read it, is the the Wagner Group is throwing those felons they rounded up out of prison as cannon fodder against the Ukraine line to the south of Bakmut to give them something to do, and/or to make sure that they are dead before their six month "internship" is up, and supposedly they are to be set free, but it's all sound and fury signifying not much else, and Wagner is savvy enough to not mess with Bakmut itself, because then they would be utterly destroyed in short order.

Sir Wood has his little interpretations and I have mine.  

They might be rotated out for a bit, but the mobilisation order means they're there as long as the Russian government wants them there or until they get a debilitating injury. The guys with 10-year prison sentences probably aren't too devastated, but the volunteers with the 3-6 month lucrative contracts were the real losers there.

I posted a link to an article above somewhere, where Wagner went into prisons and said if you sign up for a six month tour of duty, at the end you are free and do not have to go back to prison.

This was true, until mobilisation. The mobilisation order extends every contract regardless of the terms under which it was signed, until the end of the "Special Military Operation." As far as I'm aware, this applies to Wagner contracts as well, although I suppose it's possible they're exempt as a PMC. We will see if that's true six months after the first of the prison contracts were issued (September, IIRC).

[jaichind]

https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-war-europe-ukraine-gas-inflation-reduction-act-ira-joe-biden-rift-west-eu-accuses-us-of-profiting-from-war/

"Europe accuses US of profiting from war"

I think this is about political cover for EU politicians on the current sanctions blowback by blaming it on the Americans.

[Torie]

https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-war-europe-ukraine-gas-inflation-reduction-act-ira-joe-biden-rift-west-eu-accuses-us-of-profiting-from-war/

"Europe accuses US of profiting from war"

I think this is about political cover for EU politicians on the current sanctions blowback by blaming it on the Americans.

How do the Biden green subsidies "destroy" EU industry?

I am not sure I see the rationale to have the US sell natural gas at below market prices to other rich nations. Each rich nation should face the consequences of its wrong headed energy policies. What should have happened is that it should have been pedal to the metal for green, the anti nuke plant craze should have been jettisoned, and the supply and infrastructure for fossil fuels set up to be used when disruptions hit like Putin fascism.

I appreciate that takes far too much planning and interim sacrifice. Biden and the bulk of the Dem party has sucked too on energy policy, no question about that. It's part of a self defeating hatred of fossil fuels while we move as fast as practicable to green.

[The Dowager Mod]

Ukrainian Grannies are tough. 
https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1597189494326710272

[CanadianDemocrat]

This Andrew guy who Mr. Woodbury has so graciously shared with us above has an update, and the way I read it, is the the Wagner Group is throwing those felons they rounded up out of prison as cannon fodder against the Ukraine line to the south of Bakmut to give them something to do, and/or to make sure that they are dead before their six month "internship" is up, and supposedly they are to be set free, but it's all sound and fury signifying not much else, and Wagner is savvy enough to not mess with Bakmut itself, because then they would be utterly destroyed in short order.

Sir Wood has his little interpretations and I have mine.  

Bakhmut is a heavily fortified well defended city, going back to when Russia invaded the Donbass in 2014. The Ukrainians have been building fortifications since 2014, so trying to take Bakhmut in mass frontal assaults' is stupid.  

[It’s so Joever]

Ukrainian Grannies are tough. 
https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1597189494326710272

All Eastern European grandmothers tbh. Mine sometimes scares the f**k outta me.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1597381094026141697?cxt=HHwWgoDThYnphKssAA...

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1597516834596876289

[Torie]

Here's Prof Michael Clarke's update for the day. He's the best I've seen at this as an explicator.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vi1nkGo10BA

[President Johnson]

G7 Justice Ministers just held a summit in Berlin to discuss prosecution of Russian war criminals. German Justice Minister Marco Buschmann said this should include "the top", ergo the Russian regime.

(I don't know who attended on behalf the US, but it wasn't Merrick Garland)

https://twitter.com/GermanyUN/status/1597594902833266688

https://twitter.com/SoizaDavid/status/1597642709950672897