Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[NOVA Green]

This entire thread has been extremely quite overall recently, especially with much of the activity elsewhere, especially regarding the US-GE-22 elections.

I have been as guilty as many other posters for our obsessive compulsion disorder when it comes to Elections, especially US elections.

Still, I might just toss out a few recent items of interest.

Here's something to start with...

The U.S. and its allies are seeking to agree as soon as Wednesday on a level for a price cap on Russian oil, with officials discussing setting it at around $60 a barrel as the group rushes to complete the plan, according to people familiar with the talks.

The price cap, which the people said could still be set as high as $70, is at the center of the West’s efforts to sanction Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. The Group of Seven advanced democracies and Australia plan to begin enforcing the price cap on Dec. 5 after struggling to craft its details this fall.

Ambassadors from the 27 European Union member states are scheduled to meet Wednesday, when they will try to agree on a price. The bloc needs a unanimous agreement on the price for it to take effect and diplomats warned that may prove difficult to achieve quickly. The G-7 is aiming to approve the cap soon after the EU.

Under the program, the G-7, EU and Australia would ban the provision of maritime services for shipments of Russian oil unless the oil is sold below the price cap. The Western countries are hoping to take advantage of their control of much of the world’s maritime insurance, financing and shipping services to dictate the terms of Russia’s seaborne oil sales.

U.S. officials want to set the price cap high enough to entice Russia to keep selling its oil to global markets, even at the capped price. Biden administration officials have looked at Russia’s prewar oil prices, which averaged around $65 a barrel, as one gauge of where the cap should be set.

The U.S. has sought to make enforcement of the price cap relatively relaxed, pushing the EU to amend its plan to ban vessels that breach the price cap from receiving EU oil services like brokerage or insurance. U.S. officials worried the EU plan would scare shippers from wanting to carry Russian oil.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/western-allies-aim-to-agree-on-russian-oil-price-cap-wednesday-11669134657?mod=hp_lead_pos6

[NOVA Green]

Here's another interesting story:

Russian President Vladimir Putin is facing calls from some territory officials to formally end his mobilization of troops amid the Ukraine invasion.

In the latest indication of mounting discontent, territory officials from the Republic of Karelia, a northwestern region of Russia bordering Finland, sent Putin a letter urging him to issue a decree that would prohibit the military from continuing the ongoing mobilization due to its negative effects on Russian society.

Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Russian state media RIA Novosti on Tuesday that his office has not yet seen the letter.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-territory-officials-demand-putin-officially-end-his-mobilization/ar-AA14qRXq?ocid=EMMX&cvid=1ec97560b3ed455ba2cf45b45b0a92d1

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Here's another interesting story:

Russian President Vladimir Putin is facing calls from some territory officials to formally end his mobilization of troops amid the Ukraine invasion.

In the latest indication of mounting discontent, territory officials from the Republic of Karelia, a northwestern region of Russia bordering Finland, sent Putin a letter urging him to issue a decree that would prohibit the military from continuing the ongoing mobilization due to its negative effects on Russian society.

Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Russian state media RIA Novosti on Tuesday that his office has not yet seen the letter.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-territory-officials-demand-putin-officially-end-his-mobilization/ar-AA14qRXq?ocid=EMMX&cvid=1ec97560b3ed455ba2cf45b45b0a92d1

The Kremlin earlier claimed that it finished at the end of October…

[NOVA Green]

Here's another interesting story:

Russian President Vladimir Putin is facing calls from some territory officials to formally end his mobilization of troops amid the Ukraine invasion.

In the latest indication of mounting discontent, territory officials from the Republic of Karelia, a northwestern region of Russia bordering Finland, sent Putin a letter urging him to issue a decree that would prohibit the military from continuing the ongoing mobilization due to its negative effects on Russian society.

Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Russian state media RIA Novosti on Tuesday that his office has not yet seen the letter.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/russian-territory-officials-demand-putin-officially-end-his-mobilization/ar-AA14qRXq?ocid=EMMX&cvid=1ec97560b3ed455ba2cf45b45b0a92d1

The Kremlin earlier claimed that it finished at the end of October…

Sure... plus I got some family in New York who have significant investments in the Brooklyn Bridge up for privatization on the auction block for any interested wealthy Atlas members.

[NOVA Green]

Ukrainian Military Operations on the Southern Front?

Seen multiple other articles regarding the Kinburn Peninsula in recent days...

Looks like Ukrainian allies military aid requests regarding mobile river boats might be coming in handy with what appears to be a significant offensive to regain massive chunks of territory against outnumbered and demoralized Russian forces?

Ukraine’s military stepped up efforts to reclaim parts of the country’s south, attempting to strike Sevastopol on Tuesday and saying it was launching an operation to push Russian forces from a strategic peninsula on the Black Sea coast.

The operations come as Kyiv looks to open up its besieged ports and build on significant gains in the region.

Ukrainian forces have also begun an assault on the Kinburn Spit, a strip of land jutting into the sea south of Mykolaiv that has been occupied for months by Russian forces cutting off access to the port city.

“For now, this military operation is in silent mode,” said a spokeswoman for Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command on Ukrainian television late Monday. She didn’t say when the operation had started but said stormy weather provided an advantage for Ukrainian forces in the area.

The larger Kinburn Peninsula is a strategic prize for Ukraine. The sliver of land lies at a key maritime choke point leading to the port cities of Mykolaiv and Kherson, at the mouth of two large rivers, the Southern Buh and the Dnipro.

Russian forces have used the spit to launch missile, drone and artillery strikes that have hammered the city of Mykolaiv, which remains in Ukrainian control but has suffered under heavy Russian fire throughout the war.

Reclaiming the peninsula could also provide relief to hundreds of thousands of people living in the Mykolaiv region. The near-constant Russian shelling has damaged schools, hospitals, grain silos, port infrastructure and many civilian homes.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-launches-assault-to-oust-russia-from-key-black-sea-peninsula-11669114391?mod=Searchresults_pos17&page=1

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile, as I believe a few posters upthread have noted in recent days is the relative weakness of the Russian Black Sea Fleet...

Obviously in order for Ukrainian forces to make a serious strike on the Southern Front to liberate Melitopol, and even potentially move into a position to fully isolate Crimean Peninsula, there will need to be a Naval Component, even assuming Ukraine can liberate the weakly defended Kinburn Spit.

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1594986231594897409?s=20&t=YuvFDx...

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1594765525674037272?s=20&t=YuvFDx...

https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1594337860651732992?s=20&t=YuvFDxgn8...

[NOVA Green]

Russia is now apparently an honorary member of PETA...

https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1595009952170795008?s=20&t=sQ-63gRr...

[Logical]

The Turkish arms industry must be very pleased. They get a rare opportunity to test and market their products and earn praise for it.
https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1595150005333299202

[jaichind]

Natural gas prices heading back up in the EU.  But that is based on the fear that Russia might cut off all transit gas.  Note that the 1 year forward (orange) never really fell that much anyway and now is ticking up slightly again.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The Turkish arms industry must be very pleased. They get a rare opportunity to test and market their products and earn praise for it.
https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1595150005333299202

They apparently sent this to Ukraine in small quantities (50-200 guided missiles), with the model in question syncing well with TB2 drones but having ~20km less range than M270/HIMARS: https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/turkey-supplied-laser-guided-missiles-ukraine

The article adds that according to Oryx's sources, these were first sent before any deliveries of M270/HIMARS. Having primarily provided Ukraine with most armaments for direct financial gain rather than as aid, Turkey has pushed the boundaries of perceived escalation/technological capabilities for Ukraine where other states deigned not to, which arguably tracks with them calling Russia's bluff on the grain deal and shooting down the Russian jet which flew into Turkish airspace a few years ago.

They have also managed to retain better relations with Russia while doing this - I thought Erdogan's attempts to balance relations with both states was laughable at the start of this conflict, but they haven't completely failed so far.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yeah - horrible man that he is, you have to admit that the Sultan has played this fairly well so far.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/b_nishanov/status/1595234758342098946?s=20&t=0U-LXvURFu2...

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1595041154202058752?s=20&t=0U-LXv...

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status/1595213326249861121?s=20&t=0U-LXvURF...

[NOVA Green]

Not "new news" to most posters on this thread, let alone most of those watching, but still topical when it comes to European political parties RE: Russian War Against Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1595390115211247617?s=20&t=O-YYY4...

[NOVA Green]

Hasn't been much (if any) coverage of this story on the thread, but the situation is getting worse for many of the 100s ofd Russian troops who refused to return to the front lines and effectively held hostage in extremely dehumanizing situations.

You will likely need to open the Tweet to follow the full thread...

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1595562318141743105?s=20&t=O-YYY4zyaX...

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Not "new news" to most posters on this thread, let alone most of those watching, but still topical when it comes to European political parties RE: Russian War Against Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/status/1595390115211247617?s=20&t=O-YYY4...

Certain MEPs also asked EU member states to include the Wagner Group on the EU's terror group list. Before states could even respond to such a proposal, the degenerates who run Wagner's Telegram channel announced they'd be sending their trademark hammer in a suitcase to the European Parliament.

I suspect Putin is not particularly happy with this; after all, it was presumably the Kremlin who forced Wagner's leader to pretend he disapproved of the last execution video. Still, he seems to be especially light-touch with them, given his history. About a week ago, they were even allowed to open a HQ in St. Petersburg that would overshadow most Russian army bases. They're not exactly subtle about it:

[Frodo]

Training in the Russian Army is just that bad...

Russia’s High-Tech Artillery System Was Supposed To Win The War In Ukraine. But Troops Didn’t Know How To Use It.

The Russian army spent decades and billions of dollars building what should be the world’s most fearsome artillery fire-control system. Combining drones, radars and thousands of modern howitzers and rocket-launchers, the fire-control system in theory can spot a target, relay coordinates and send shells down-range in just 10 seconds.

In practice, in the chaos of Russia’s wider war on Ukraine, the system barely works at all—and the artillerymen themselves mostly are to blame, according to Maksim Fomin, a militia fighter for the separatists Donetsk People’s Republic and a pro-Russian blogger. “Most of the gunners, before Feb. 24, had no idea how to fight in modern conditions,” Fomin wrote under his pen name “Vladlen Tatarsky” on Saturday.

Fomin was referring to the gunners from the Russian army’s Northern Military District, but the same criticism could apply to the army’s other districts, too—to the whole force, in fact. A sophisticated artillery fire-control system is useless if the troops don’t know how to operate it. Sure, they might fire off a lot of shells. Just don’t count on them hitting the right things—and certainly not quickly.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/change_maker88/status/1595969798038786048
https://twitter.com/SpriterMonitor1/status/1596235786453921792

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://mobile.twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1507333553448800309
Unexpected Terf Island crossover event

“Mr President, we need reinforcements.”

“You’re on your own. I need every troop in Russia to fight political correctness.”

“But we’re pinned at Irpin and Bucha!”

“You weren’t born that way, and you don’t have a right to reinforcements. Stop being woke.”

We are now here:

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1596230884700860416

As part of his latest call for blocking detachments and summary executions, Solovyov characterised those who abandon their posts as "queer", "perpetually offended", and "justifying [themselves] by moaning on social media." He also demanded the ban of a Telegram user called Elena33.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1596149598237884418

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1596149598237884418

Very little photographic evidence despite all the claims of the last few weeks. I'd have expected something to emerge by now if it was anything more than raids and artillery duels.

[NOVA Green]

Training in the Russian Army is just that bad...

Russia’s High-Tech Artillery System Was Supposed To Win The War In Ukraine. But Troops Didn’t Know How To Use It.

The Russian army spent decades and billions of dollars building what should be the world’s most fearsome artillery fire-control system. Combining drones, radars and thousands of modern howitzers and rocket-launchers, the fire-control system in theory can spot a target, relay coordinates and send shells down-range in just 10 seconds.

In practice, in the chaos of Russia’s wider war on Ukraine, the system barely works at all—and the artillerymen themselves mostly are to blame, according to Maksim Fomin, a militia fighter for the separatists Donetsk People’s Republic and a pro-Russian blogger. “Most of the gunners, before Feb. 24, had no idea how to fight in modern conditions,” Fomin wrote under his pen name “Vladlen Tatarsky” on Saturday.

Fomin was referring to the gunners from the Russian army’s Northern Military District, but the same criticism could apply to the army’s other districts, too—to the whole force, in fact. A sophisticated artillery fire-control system is useless if the troops don’t know how to operate it. Sure, they might fire off a lot of shells. Just don’t count on them hitting the right things—and certainly not quickly.

Additionally, we have seen recent reports of Russian soldiers refusing to fight claiming they were shelled by their own artillery units.

It will be interesting to know once the full history of this war is written, to what extent Russia (Or possibly Ukraine) inflicted "collateral damage" on their own troops.

Sure, this is not unknown within the era of Modern Warfare for militaries to inflict significant casualties on their own troops.

During WW II, for example, American GIs fighting on the ground in the Battle of the Bulge would cheer when they would see the "Silver Wings" of the B-52 Bombers, and shoot off various types of flares to alert the pilots that they were "friendly forces", but yet somehow mistakes still happened.

I was asking one of my neighbors (Afghan War Vet)  awhile back while his military hat has a certain reflective thing on it and he said it was to help in case Air assets couldn't distinguish between units. (He was USMC).

Dumb artillery fire can quickly decimate entire friendly units especially under fast changing field conditions.

I suspect some of the accounts that have been reported from Russian sources would appear to indicate that Russia has created significantly more casualties among their own soldiers, than Ukrainians have among their own soldiers.

[NOVA Green]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ChuckPfarrer/status/1596149598237884418

Very little photographic evidence despite all the claims of the last few weeks. I'd have expected something to emerge by now if it was anything more than raids and artillery duels.

It sounds like a pretty complex type of battlefield, with very few settlements and relatively little in the way of military units stationed and fighting on both sides.

I suspect the mud season and start of winter weather is making conditions even trickier to assess.

Should also be noted that Ukrainian Military sources have a tradition of sometimes deliberately telegraphing their future "chess moves", while also dissembling as part of a Psy-Ops, in order to focus military assets on other fronts.

[NOVA Green]

Interesting story from Kherson City about how Ukrainian FF's attempted to sabotage Russian Occupation authorities.

Long story and well worth a free click if not a subscriber.

A few select quotes only as it is a very long article with many nuances over the timeline.

The first time Russian soldiers came to Tropinka Hospital, they told Leonid Remiga, the hospital’s chief physician, to take down the blue-and-yellow Ukrainian flag hanging over the main entrance. He refused.

The Russians left without insisting. But that meeting on March 7, days after Russia seized this southern city, was the start of a battle for control of the hospital that raged through the entire occupation. The Russians detained two doctors, banned Ukrainian symbols and put hand-picked people in charge. To thwart them, the staff faked a Covid-19 outbreak, hid equipment and spied for Ukrainian forces.

The staff’s resistance was part of an eight-month, mostly unarmed campaign by Kherson residents to keep the city Ukrainian—and out of Moscow’s full control—for as long as possible. Thousands joined anti-Russian protests in the city’s central square and, when the demonstrations were violently quashed, turned small acts of resistance into part of everyday life—even at the risk of being detained or tortured.

Days after Dr. Remiga refused to take the flag down, more Russian soldiers arrived in an armored personnel carrier intent on converting Tropinka into a military hospital.

Dr. Remiga, still spry with a white goatee, greeted them in full protective gear, including a body suit and foot covers, and told the troops they couldn’t come in because of a Covid outbreak. Staff had plastered the walls with warnings of rampant infections. The ruse worked, and the soldiers left.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukrainian-hospital-stymied-russians-defiant-doctors-fake-covid-11669243198?mod=hp_lead_pos8




https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukrainian-hospital-stymied-russians-defiant-doctors-fake-covid-11669243198?mod=hp_lead_pos8

[Red Velvet]

https://www.twitter.com/BMoens/status/1596060373484179457