Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Anti-Trump Truth Socialite JD Vance Enjoying Juror]

Ukraine isn’t a dictatorship. This isn’t even a debatable claim. You’re just making sh**t up at this point.

Tbf a very disappointing fact I learned the other day is that Ukraine is not considered by The Economist and other such organizations as a democracy but rather as a "hybrid regime" along the likes of Mexico, Hong Kong or El Salvador.

Still easily beats Russia's "full authoritarianism" though.

I know. Ukraine is hardly the world’s healthiest democracy. Martial law has also curtailed political freedoms in Ukraine. Still, these restrictions are well within the range of “flawed democracy” rather than “dictatorship”.

[NOVA Green]

Earlier on in the first couple months I posted links to multiple articles regarding how the war in Ukraine was creating extreme rifts within the Eastern Orthodox Christian community.

So here's snippet that might be of interest, even as within Russia itself, identification with the Eastern Orthodox Church has surged from something like 30% of the population two decades ago to 65% or so today.

That the Orthodox church is now a focus of official suspicion is another example of how profoundly the war has upended all aspects of life in Ukraine. Even before the war, the issue of relations with Russia was already a fractious one, between those who supported the church loyal to Moscow and those who supported the newer, similarly named Orthodox Church of Ukraine, which was based in Kyiv.

Now the churches aligned with Kyiv are actively pressuring priests in the other church to change their allegiance. Violent altercations have broken out. The tensions are so deep that in May, the Ukrainian Orthodox Church amended its bylaws to grant itself “full independence and autonomy” from the church in Moscow, the tectonic rupture of a centuries-old relationship.

Even so, official suspicions remain. In one example, at the end of June, the western city of Lviv held a unanimous but symbolic vote to ban the church.

In Ukraine’s Parliament, Mykyta Poturaiev, a lawmaker, convened an official session on the church’s influence. In an interview, he confirmed that the authorities were investigating priests aligned with the Moscow church for providing targets for Russian artillery; informing on Ukrainian activists; and sending data on the positions of Ukrainian troops.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/07/14/world/russia-ukraine-war-news/long-ties-to-russia-stir-suspicions-about-ukraines-orthodox-church-and-its-priests?smid=url-share

[NOVA Green]

Surprised nobody has mentioned this yet, but Putin just signed a bunch of new wartime laws into effect:

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday signed several laws connected to the war in Ukraine, including one that makes it illegal for Russians to join Ukrainian forces.

Putin also codified special economic measures, which moved through the legislature this month, meant to put the economy on a war footing, requiring companies to supply the military with whatever goods it needs on deadline, mandating the acceptance of government contracts and introducing required overtime work.

Although the Russian government continues to deny that its invasion of Ukraine is a war, the moves indicate that Moscow is preparing for a prolonged conflict.

Putin also signed bills that toughen measures against individuals or entities considered foreign agents and make military defection an act of high treason.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/07/14/russia-ukraine-war-putin-news-live-updates/#link-VENRL3Z6ZVAGXMS3T4O4ED6U6Y

[The Dowager Mod]

 
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1547756622704828420

[Virginiá]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-14

Russian forces continued to undertake defensive measures to prevent Ukrainian counteroffensives along the Southern Axis.[20] The Ukrainian Main Military Directorate (GUR) reported that Russian forces established an ammunition depot at the Kherson City Drama Theater between July 11 and July 12.[21] Russian forces are likely continuing to move ammunition depots to historic landmarks in an attempt to defend equipment and manpower from Ukrainian strikes. Satellite imagery also showed that Russian forces deployed at least six Su-25 aircraft to the Dzankoi air base in northern Crimea as of July 11, also possibly in preparation for launching airstrikes at Ukrainian units.[22] Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov also reported that Russian forces began hiding military equipment in residential buildings and confirmed that Ukrainian forces destroyed two ammunition depots in Melitopol in two weeks.[23] The Kherson Oblast Administration confirmed that Ukrainian forces struck two Russian command posts and one helipad in Nova Kakhovka on July 13, and social media footage showed massive explosions in the area.[24] The GUR said it observed Russian forces transporting approximately 40 wounded servicemen to Kherson City mobile hospital but did not specify if the servicemen were wounded during Ukrainian strikes on Russian ammunition depots in the city.[25]

Russians moving ammo depots into historic landmarks and residential buildings in attempt to shield them from attacks.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1547756622704828420

War is hell.

[NOVA Green]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-14

Russian forces continued to undertake defensive measures to prevent Ukrainian counteroffensives along the Southern Axis.[20] The Ukrainian Main Military Directorate (GUR) reported that Russian forces established an ammunition depot at the Kherson City Drama Theater between July 11 and July 12.[21] Russian forces are likely continuing to move ammunition depots to historic landmarks in an attempt to defend equipment and manpower from Ukrainian strikes. Satellite imagery also showed that Russian forces deployed at least six Su-25 aircraft to the Dzankoi air base in northern Crimea as of July 11, also possibly in preparation for launching airstrikes at Ukrainian units.[22] Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov also reported that Russian forces began hiding military equipment in residential buildings and confirmed that Ukrainian forces destroyed two ammunition depots in Melitopol in two weeks.[23] The Kherson Oblast Administration confirmed that Ukrainian forces struck two Russian command posts and one helipad in Nova Kakhovka on July 13, and social media footage showed massive explosions in the area.[24] The GUR said it observed Russian forces transporting approximately 40 wounded servicemen to Kherson City mobile hospital but did not specify if the servicemen were wounded during Ukrainian strikes on Russian ammunition depots in the city.[25]

Russians moving ammo depots into historic landmarks and residential buildings in attempt to shield them from attacks.

Sounds logical (From a military perspective)... plus Ukraine has already telegraphed that Russians are effectively "holding human shields" to protect against the real, but what will likely be a very brutal Battle to liberate Kherson...

Makes it a bit harder to liberate one own's territory when it comes to lobbing shells into massively reinforced Russian ""bunkers" into places around the edge of Kherson City.]

Alleged reports indicate that Ukrainian Sniper and Recon units are somewhere arrom a significant suburb of Kherson City.

Still, even if Ukrainian Western Provided Artillery was provided in significant numbers on the Kherson Front (Which from most public available reports appear not to be the reality), Ukrainian Forces will def have a rough time doing a "Full Frontal" OFF against Russian forces stationed around Kherson.

There is no traditional "3:1" stereotypical numbers when it comes to "OFF vs DEF", and although I would not be surprised to Ukraine MIL to hit hard with counter-attacks around Kherson, it does appear from various reports that UKR MIL units might have suffered heavy casualties on that front while trying to ford a couple key rivers.

Not a doomster and totally back UKR vs RUS on this, but this war is not over at all and at this point starting to look like neither parties in the war are anywhere close to compromise anytime soon.

HINT: Russia is using Ukraine as a Guinea Pig test, after having already rolled over so many other ethnic minority populations and internal dissidents for so many decades.

ALSO: For some reason there appear to be very few posts on this thread?

Not quite sure what happened there, but one of my fat fingers might have accidentally put a fellow poster on ignore?

Can't remember as an "old man" slightly shy of (50), but starting to get a bit grumpy a feeling perhaps a bit old for young trolling crap.   

Sorry what did I just post?   

[Middle-aged Europe]

Ukraine isn’t a dictatorship. This isn’t even a debatable claim. You’re just making sh**t up at this point.

Tbf a very disappointing fact I learned the other day is that Ukraine is not considered by The Economist and other such organizations as a democracy but rather as a "hybrid regime" along the likes of Mexico, Hong Kong or El Salvador.

Still easily beats Russia's "full authoritarianism" though.

Well, tbf, while Ukraine is considered a "hybrid regime" by The Economist, Freedom House defines the country as an "electoral democracy" (because its current government was elected in a free and fair election) that is also "Partly Free" (same status as EU member Hungary, or India for that matter).

In the Press Freedom Index (Reporters Without Borders) Ukraine is regarded to suffer from "noticable problems". That's the NGO's third-best category out of five, and the same level as Japan, Italy, Greece, Romania, Brazil etc. Slightly better ranking than Greece and Brazil actually, a bit worse than the others mentioned here. Definitely better than India because that one is not even filed under "noticable problems", but was placed in the next worse category altogether, "difficult situation".

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/vitalij_kim/status/1547819048926208001?s=20&t=u5r9tKK4R4...

[Storr]

Another one.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1547796669235752960?s=20&t=wPhqk6OPwUO6AM...

[Storr]

VDV

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1547735785691942915?s=20&t=DcvpF4YKpfnYvG...

[jaichind]

https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20220714-brics-expects-egypt-saudi-arabia-and-turkey-to-join-group-soon/

"BRICS expects Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Turkey to join group soon"

From an economic bloc point of view, it seems it will be G7 vs BRICS in the future.  Of course, G7 will be much more cohesive from a political point of view.  It is really pro-Russia sanctions (G7) and anti-Russia sanctions (BRICS)

[Virginiá]

M270 MLRS systems finally arriving in Ukraine. Note that these fire the same guided rockets as the HIMARS. These launchers are tracked, so they aren't quite as fast and nimble. On the upside, they can be loaded with twice as many rockets at a time as the HIMARS. If the US ever finds the resolve to provide Ukraine with the longer range ATACMS missile, the M270 would be a better launcher since only one of those missiles can fit per pod, meaning it could launch 2 at a time while HIMARS only 1.

https://twitter.com/oleksiireznikov/status/1547965132000530434

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/exclusive-saudi-arabia-doubles-q2-russian-fuel-oil-imports-power-generation-2022-07-14/

"Exclusive: Saudi Arabia doubles second-quarter Russian fuel oil imports for power generation"

It seems Saudi Arabia will most likely get into the India game of importing cheap Russian energy to free up their own domestic supplies to sell to the EU market at a higher price.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Ukraine isn’t a dictatorship. This isn’t even a debatable claim. You’re just making sh**t up at this point.

Tbf a very disappointing fact I learned the other day is that Ukraine is not considered by The Economist and other such organizations as a democracy but rather as a "hybrid regime" along the likes of Mexico, Hong Kong or El Salvador.

Still easily beats Russia's "full authoritarianism" though.

Well, tbf, while Ukraine is considered a "hybrid regime" by The Economist, Freedom House defines the country as an "electoral democracy" (because its current government was elected in a free and fair election) that is also "Partly Free" (same status as EU member Hungary, or India for that matter).

In the Press Freedom Index (Reporters Without Borders) Ukraine is regarded to suffer from "noticable problems". That's the NGO's third-best category out of five, and the same level as Japan, Italy, Greece, Romania, Brazil etc. Slightly better ranking than Greece and Brazil actually, a bit worse than the others mentioned here. Definitely better than India because that one is not even filed under "noticable problems", but was placed in the next worse category altogether, "difficult situation".

Not sure what the Economist defines as a "hybrid regime", but there's no reason to not consider Mexico an electoral democracy even if obviously a rather corrupt one (which I think Freedom House does), it has had multiple electoral based transitions of power.

[Storr]

How many ammo dumps have been hit now? I swear it’s been like a dozen this week. I mean, at some point the Russians won’t have enough ammo to fight back.

According to Ukraine: more than 30. Though I assume "military hubs" includes Russian command posts, not just ammo dumps.

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1547992158514188290?s=20&t=qDK4Dkty2LnQp...

[Storr]

Rumor: Poland might give Ukraine its stock of custom T-72 tanks, the PT-91 Twardy, of which Poland has 232. They would then be backfilled with Abrams tanks.

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1546412805821267968

I can't identify the tanks, but the passenger carriage shown briefly at the beginning of the video is in Polish livery.
https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1548010295536148481?s=20&t=EgeIO54dRu...

[Virginiá]

Good stuff. I was looking for a version of that video to link but you beat me to it!

Not sure if they are indeed transferring all their PT-91s, but if they do, that would leave them with 69 older T-72s and possibly more in storage that need repairs, but that would largely be it for Soviet/Soviet-based tanks (from Poland, anyway).

[Person Man]

Good stuff. I was looking for a version of that video to link but you beat me to it!

Not sure if they are indeed transferring all their PT-91s, but if they do, that would leave them with 69 older T-72s and possibly more in storage that need repairs, but that would largely be it for Soviet/Soviet-based tanks (from Poland, anyway).

Are they training Ukrainians to use eventually use Abrams and Leopards?

[Virginiá]

I was reading more into tank losses and evidently Ukraine has captured more T-72 tanks from Russia than they themselves had in active service when the war started (like Russia, Ukraine has a lot more tanks in storage but they are in various stages of disrepair). So it seems like the biggest tank donors to Ukraine are Poland and Russia .

Are they training Ukrainians to use eventually use Abrams and Leopards?

I don't know about the Abrams - I would doubt it. The US didn't seem to want to supply tanks directly to Ukraine and I haven't read about any change in that policy, although they are willing and have worked out deals to backfill other countries who send their own tanks. It's also worth noting that to give Ukraine a strategically useful number of Abrams tanks could cost billions of dollars, not counting ammunition, training, support vehicles, etc. Given all the Soviet tanks other EU countries have been planning to get rid of, and Ukraine's familiarity with them, and Russia largely using many of the same variants, they really are the best fit for right now.

Also, practically speaking, it's a very heavy tank, like the Leo, and it would probably be more limited in where it can go, given that Eastern Europe's infrastructure is not quite up to NATO military spec (read more here). It also consumes a massive amount of fuel - almost twice as much as a T-72, I think. Ukraine isn't a wealthy country and they have massive shortfalls right now, as you can imagine.

I don't think the huge investments in training, logistics, fuel and other considerations would be worth it right now. At any rate, Ukraine doesn't seem to be clamoring for them, either, afaik.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1547974697475719170

Looks like Ukrainian F-16s could become a reality.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1547974697475719170

Looks like Ukrainian F-16s could become a reality.

What's the detail of the Ukrainian aid aside from that? Is there also more money for the drawdown authority and other weapons transfer programs?

[Woody]

Aiden Aislin, one of the brits that has been sentenced to death in the "DPR" is now being forced to stuff like this (Singing the RU anthem):

[CumbrianLefty]

Who do they think this actually impresses?

[Stranger in a strange land]

Who do they think this actually impresses?

Nationalistic old babushkas who pine for the days of Brezhnev, and western pro-Russia clout-chasing bottom-feeders like Jackson Hinkle and Sameera Khan & their fans