Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Lord Halifax]

Russia might be able to pump out quite a bit of artillery munitions themselves, but until they figure out a long-term solution for their semiconductor crisis, virtually all their advanced systems are going to be near-irreplaceable. And honestly, this isn't even really just a Russian problem. The semiconductor production industry has long been dominated by Taiwan's TSMC (for the most advanced chips) and foreign sources in general. It's only within the past 5 years that America has seriously made headway in moving a lot of production stateside, and that still isn't a done deal. So America could find itself with its own weapons production crisis if, say, China were to try to reunify annex Taiwan within the next ~5 years. It would be even worse for us because of how advanced our military tech is.

A recent seemingly well-researched article from Reuters claimed Taiwan produces 92% of the most advanced semiconductors and South Korea the remaining 8%, so the US production currently doesn't include the most advanced ones.

[jaichind]

Russia might be able to pump out quite a bit of artillery munitions themselves, but until they figure out a long-term solution for their semiconductor crisis, virtually all their advanced systems are going to be near-irreplaceable. And honestly, this isn't even really just a Russian problem. The semiconductor production industry has long been dominated by Taiwan's TSMC (for the most advanced chips) and foreign sources in general. It's only within the past 5 years that America has seriously made headway in moving a lot of production stateside, and that still isn't a done deal. So America could find itself with its own weapons production crisis if, say, China were to try to reunify annex Taiwan within the next ~5 years. It would be even worse for us because of how advanced our military tech is.

A recent seemingly well-researched article from Reuters claimed Taiwan produces 92% of the most advanced semiconductors and South Korea the remaining 8%, so the US production currently doesn't include the most advanced ones.

The main PRC strategy here is to try to recruit top TSMC talent to defect and work for Mainland semiconductor companies which they had some limited success last couple of years.  The USA is not helpless here.  The software that power the semiconductor design are still controlled by USA companies.  Still on the long run it is clear the PRC will close the technical gap here and will eat into the most advanced sectors of the semiconductor  business.

As for Russia what TSMC really control are the top end semiconductor production which for most semiconductor uses is not necessary.  If Russia want to focus on smart weapons  then yes this will make a difference.  But if Russia strategy is mass artillery then smart weapons does not matter that much and for regular semiconductor Russia can produce its own or import them from PRC.

And lastly Russia and Ukraine control a good part of  semiconductor-grade neon which are necessary for semiconductor production so we have a case of MAD between Russia and ROC when it comes to semiconductor and both sides will not go too far.

[Virginiá]

Russia might be able to pump out quite a bit of artillery munitions themselves, but until they figure out a long-term solution for their semiconductor crisis, virtually all their advanced systems are going to be near-irreplaceable. And honestly, this isn't even really just a Russian problem. The semiconductor production industry has long been dominated by Taiwan's TSMC (for the most advanced chips) and foreign sources in general. It's only within the past 5 years that America has seriously made headway in moving a lot of production stateside, and that still isn't a done deal. So America could find itself with its own weapons production crisis if, say, China were to try to reunify annex Taiwan within the next ~5 years. It would be even worse for us because of how advanced our military tech is.

A recent seemingly well-researched article from Reuters claimed Taiwan produces 92% of the most advanced semiconductors and South Korea the remaining 8%, so the US production currently doesn't include the most advanced ones.

Yeah, I meant more like America plans to move foundries here. Intel is building out, Samsung is looking into additional plants, and TSMC is as well. Although if I recall, TSMC isn't building a 4nm foundry here, so their most advanced and cutting edge processes will still happen overseas. Also, at least some of these potential operations are to varying degrees contingent on inducements from Congress (allegedly), which is still in debate.

This is still going to take years to come to fruition even if all these plans go full steam ahead, though. Also, it's not exactly clear what level of technology military systems need. For example, many of these advanced weapon systems might use older chips that are still by any measure sophisticated, but not on the bleeding edge of available technology. Considering the rapid pace at which CPUs have been designed, that's probably a reasonable assumption.

[Virginiá]

As for Russia's domestic semiconductor capabilities, JSC Mikron's fabs are able to churn out transistors on a .... 90 nanometer process. Possibly 65. Meanwhile the newest modern consumer chips from the likes of Intel and AMD are based on 7 nm and 5 nm processes, respectively. It's not even close. Russia really doesn't have the wherewithal to generate their own supply here, and the brain drain they've been experiencing is not going to help matters. And even if they could design their own chips, they don't have the highly sophisticated equipment to build them. Most countries don't. There is a reason even the top CPU designers in the market still contract out fabrication services to TSMC. Actually building these chips is extremely difficult.

[jaichind]

As for Russia's domestic semiconductor capabilities, JSC Mikron's fabs are able to churn out transistors on a .... 90 nanometer process. Possibly 65. Meanwhile the newest modern consumer chips from the likes of Intel and AMD are based on 7 nm and 5 nm processes, respectively. It's not even close. Russia really doesn't have the wherewithal to generate their own supply here, and the brain drain they've been experiencing is not going to help matters. And even if they could design their own chips, they don't have the highly sophisticated equipment to build them. Most countries don't. There is a reason even the top CPU designers in the market still contract out fabrication services to TSMC. Actually building these chips is extremely difficult.

Sure, but 7nm and 5nm are mostly use for smartphones and sometimes laptops due to their low power usage.  As long as Russia have to accept they will have to import smartphones (there is no real Russian domestic producer of smartphones anyway).  It is not like the older technology chips are not usable.  It is just they will eat up more power making the hardware that use them not as energy efficient.  Russia will either import finished products that use 5nm or 7nm or just produce less efficient hardware using older chips.  Less efficient is not great but it is not fatal.

[Virginiá]

Sure, but 7nm and 5nm are mostly use for smartphones and sometimes laptops due to their low power usage.  As long as Russia have to accept they will have to import smartphones (there is no real Russian domestic producer of smartphones anyway).  It is not like the older technology chips are not usable.  It is just they will eat up more power making the hardware that use them not as energy efficient.  Russia will either import finished products that use 5nm or 7nm or just produce less efficient hardware using older chips.  Less efficient is not great but it is not fatal.

Right, I touched on that earlier. Thing is, Mikron's proven abilities are related to processes from pretty much the early aughts to the late 90s. A major investment by Russians to catch up to 28 nm processes is by their own statement not expected until 2030. I would also question exactly how reliable their mass production of anything usable in their weapons will be.

In the meantime, their weapons are all designed around using foreign chips. They aren't just going to be able to swap them out like they were building a new computer. In the interim, I would expect their efforts to continue procuring the same chips on the black market and through recycling programs to fill in at least a small amount of this gap. Either way, they have quite a problem here.

[Beet]

A bit off topic, but the notion that TSMC is the only company that produces the most advanced chips is one of those conventional wisdom type myths that have become extremely pervasive in the last couple of years due to endorsement by politicos and news outlets.

First of all, the vast majority of chips used in the world are of larger nodes (10nm and above) that can be produced by all the major foundry players, and this includes most military technology. The main advantage of a smaller node is simply that it uses up less energy and is thus more efficient on the consumer market (for example, on your iPhone, you can have longer battery life if the processor uses less electricity). It doesn't mean that you can't physically do the same complicated calculations on a computer built on larger node circuits simply by stringing together multiple slightly larger processors. The only advantage of having the smallest nodes (5nm, 7nm and below) is a minor cost gain for the commercial market - the difference between an iPhone 12 or an iPhone 13. It doesn't necessarily have that much military significance.

Second, TSMC isn't the only company that produces chips at the smallest lithography nodes. Intel and Samsung both produce at the 7nm nodes, and Samsung produces at the 5nm node, the same as TSMC's current smallest production node. Yes, TSMC has the highest market share, but that doesn't mean that other companies cannot physically produce at the level they do. As far as future nodes at 3nm and below, Samsung is officially targeting the same release date as TSMC, so again TSMC isn't the only option.

Third, the notion that "TSMC makes" even the chips that come out of its foundries is extremely simplistic and misleading. No company or foundry in the world builds any chip from scratch. The chipmaking process is an extremely complex network of global suppliers and relationships, of which foundry fabrication is just one step of many. TSMC relies on thousands of suppliers, including American suppliers like Applied Materials and Lam Research for chemicals, Japanese suppliers for other chemicals, Dutch company ASML for its lithography equipment. And those companies in turn rely on other suppliers like Corning glass and 3M of the U.S. or German companies like Trumpf or Carl Zeiss. And those companies probably rely on other suppliers of their own. And so on and so on.

So the real truth is that the whole world produces chips together, and if you put TSMC by itself, would it be able to produce anything? No. On the other hand if you took TSMC out of the equation, would the U.S. and its allies still be able to produce the most advanced chips? Yes. So this company is neither necessary nor sufficient.

[Person Man]

As for Russia's domestic semiconductor capabilities, JSC Mikron's fabs are able to churn out transistors on a .... 90 nanometer process. Possibly 65. Meanwhile the newest modern consumer chips from the likes of Intel and AMD are based on 7 nm and 5 nm processes, respectively. It's not even close. Russia really doesn't have the wherewithal to generate their own supply here, and the brain drain they've been experiencing is not going to help matters. And even if they could design their own chips, they don't have the highly sophisticated equipment to build them. Most countries don't. There is a reason even the top CPU designers in the market still contract out fabrication services to TSMC. Actually building these chips is extremely difficult.

That’s pathetic.

[Virginiá]

I mean, the existence of globalization and the supply chains that feed all these materials and constituent components for these highly advanced machines pretty much goes without saying. The goal for major powers right now seems to be to consolidate as much of that as reasonably possible within their own borders.

[jaichind]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-08/germany-expects-canada-to-release-key-nord-stream-part

"Germany Sees Russian Pipeline Part Released in Gas De-Escalation"

Germany got Canada to break the sanctions to deliver a repaired turbine for Nord Stream to try to get the gas flowing again it seems.

[Virginiá]

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/08/biden-artillery-ukraine-kyiv-russia-00044735

President Joe Biden has approved sending a new type of precision-guided artillery round to Ukraine that the administration believes will give Kyiv a technological edge in its battle against Russia, according to a senior defense official.

The 1,000 rounds of the new 155mm ammunition is part of a new $400 million aid package the White House is set to announce on Friday, the person said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

The package also includes four additional rocket launchers and ammunition, bringing to 12 the number of High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems the U.S. is providing to Ukraine, the official said, noting that out of the total promised, 8 HIMARS have already been delivered to Ukraine. Upwards of 100 Ukrainians have been trained on the system to date, a senior military official added.

4 more HIMARS systems as well as 1,000 precision 155mm artillery shells, among other equipment.

Defense officials also confirm that all the previously donated HIMARS are accounted for, so the Russian claim about destroying 2 probably a bit of an exaggeration.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1545442908941189121?s=20&t=bvW5Fpj...

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1545514392355217410?s=20&t=bvW5Fpj1...

[NOVA Green]

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/07/08/biden-artillery-ukraine-kyiv-russia-00044735

President Joe Biden has approved sending a new type of precision-guided artillery round to Ukraine that the administration believes will give Kyiv a technological edge in its battle against Russia, according to a senior defense official.

The 1,000 rounds of the new 155mm ammunition is part of a new $400 million aid package the White House is set to announce on Friday, the person said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

The package also includes four additional rocket launchers and ammunition, bringing to 12 the number of High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems the U.S. is providing to Ukraine, the official said, noting that out of the total promised, 8 HIMARS have already been delivered to Ukraine. Upwards of 100 Ukrainians have been trained on the system to date, a senior military official added.

4 more HIMARS systems as well as 1,000 precision 155mm artillery shells, among other equipment.

Defense officials also confirm that all the previously donated HIMARS are accounted for, so the Russian claim about destroying 2 probably a bit of an exaggeration.

Here is a little more speculation on that note:

The official declined to specify exactly which shell will be shipped, but said that the United States would send 1,000 for use in the Donbas region.

“It has greater precision, it offers Ukraine precise capability for specific targets,” the official said. “It will save ammunition, it will be more effective due to the precision, so it’s a further evolution in our support for Ukraine in this battle in the Donbas.”

The two most likely candidates are the M982 Excalibur round — which is guided by GPS signals, has a range of about 25 miles and can hit within about two yards of its intended target — and the M1156 Precision Guidance Kit, which is also GPS-guided but screws into the nose of a normal high-explosive shell and is believed to be accurate to within 20 yards.

The most significant part of the new package will be four HIMARS rocket launchers along with additional guided rockets for them, which will join the eight HIMARS sent earlier which have been used to destroy Russian command posts and ammunition depots.

nytimes.com/live/2022/07/08/world/russia-ukraine-war-news

[Virginiá]

The XM1156 kit to make dumb shells smart is probably the more economical option. Retrofitting standard 155mm shells costs <= $10,000, while the M982 Excalibur is anywhere from $60,000 - $112,000 (seeing multiple price points so not sure which is right).

Honestly, costs aside, these are much better for Ukraine for so many reasons, such as actually hitting your target and reducing counter battery risk, but also because Ukraine hopes to, you know, live in these areas when all is said and done. Better they not be littered with blast craters and rubble. Russia is doing enough of that by itself.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1545449202926370817?s=20&t=lD12BX...

Coincidence this happened the same day (the 7th)?

https://twitter.com/Hromadske/status/1545355678486827008?s=20&t=lD12BXJ_QWhD...

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1545399942877003778
https://mobile.twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1545565917349924864
Ukraine still making gains toward Kherson 🙏

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

https://mobile.twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1545399942877003778
https://mobile.twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1545565917349924864
Ukraine still making gains toward Kherson 🙏

There's a built-in doomerism to ISW's daily reports due to its emphasis specifically on Russian offensives, so this is good to see from them.

[CumbrianLefty]

Is the white noise still in this thread, then.

[Sir Mohamed]

What's the risk of Putin cutting off gas exports to wide parts of Europe in the coming weeks and months? Some old friends from university texting me that.

[jaichind]

What's the risk of Putin cutting off gas exports to wide parts of Europe in the coming weeks and months? Some old friends from university texting me that.

I doubt it.  He can sell that gas to PRC instead but the pipeline capacity to sell to PRC is still limited (although growing over time) so he will have to sell some of his gas to the EU.   Part of the calculation will also be how much Russia needs to and be able to import over the coming year.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/NLwartracker/status/1545679584120770560?s=20&t=wYfifSWpF...

https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1545678288743448576?s=20&t=_WF37coIV2...

[NOVA Green]

UK MoD update assessment

“Despite President Putin’s claim on 7 July 2022 that the Russian military has ‘not even started’ its efforts in Ukraine, many of its reinforcements are ad hoc groupings, deploying with obsolete or inappropriate equipment,” an assessment from Britain’s defense ministry said on Saturday.

One sign the defense ministry pointed to was its expectation that fresh Russian troops would be deployed with MT-LB armored vehicles. The MT-LB, first designed in the 1950s to pull artillery, is not heavily armored and can mount only a machine gun to protect its forces.

“Russia has long considered them unsuitable for most frontline infantry transport roles,” the British ministry said in its analysis.

Previous deployments, it said, were transported with the well armored BMP-2 fighting vehicles, which can also fire anti-tank missiles.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/07/09/world/russia-ukraine-war-news

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1545487070780612611?s=20&t=ch6474...

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1545842723151761408?s=20&t=qSZBqW...

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1545822172257583104?s=20&t=qSZBqWLZtbk...

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

U.K is training Ukrainians in England. Hopes to have 10k trained every 120 days.

https://www.theonion.com/nfl-to-move-all-32-teams-to-los-angeles-1819568144