Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[OSR stands with Israel]

If Hungary does veto the energy sanctions but the other 26 countries are on board, nothing would stop them from unilaterally enacting them on their own, right? I know as a European I'm supposed to know this stuff, but EU treaties are notoriously difficult.

Do it

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/CraigCaplan/status/1511880639934521344

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Please tell me something within the realm of possibility that could make Ukraine "not the better party" in this conflict. I'm dying to know.

I suppose something that could happen is Ukraine pushing back the Russians enough off backs of a manpower advantage and Western weaponry, then acting a similar way (or worse) on Russian soil to how the Russians have acted on Ukrainian soil. If it gets to that point neither side deserves to be considered "better", and they've both committed undue grievous harm to the other's citizenry.
If this goes on long enough conscription and the aid Ukraine is getting make it quite possible they push back the Russians enough for us to see how civilized they'd act in this sort of situation.

Yes, that is within the realm of possibility. Ukraine's getting loads of weapons, it has conscription while Russia doesn't, and the opinion of the average Russian in the minds of the average Ukrainian has declined immensely. The tide of the war is presently in Ukraine's favor and the Russians are even withdrawing from large swathes of Ukraine as we speak.
We cannot yet exclude the possibility of a Ukrainian nation intent on cold-blooded revenge and showing that through their actions. This war is still an unpredictable thing and we are likely seeing it go in new directions as of the moment I am typing this very post.

 Trying to  Even imply a both sides approach to this based on this far fetched scenario is frankly ridiculous.

Sorry to report this to you, Sir, but Ukrainians and Russians are both human beings, and human beings can do terrible things to each other. That sounds base and primal, but war is a very primal thing.

That is all I have to say on the subject of possible Ukrainian war crimes for now, and I'm sympathetic to calls for those who killed these POWs to face some sort of consequences. Good thing Zelensky - probably - is able to put 2 and 2 together and realize that if Ukraine doesn't behave itself, that might jeopardize its position, potentially even beyond repair.

Normally it might not be this paramount for Ukraine, but if the anti-Russian position stresses Russian behavior, it only makes sense Ukraine be held to the same standards. Ukraine was a significant chunk of the Red Army after all. Ukraine and Russia should be assumed to have similar military cultures until proven otherwise.
P.S. I find the psychology of war to be equal parts fascinating and scary.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/CraigCaplan/status/1511880639934521344

Does this act do anything different than we are already doing?

[NOVA Green]

Okay, probably deleted my coverage of the original article voluntarily as a result of overquoting, but here's a follow-up to the WP "Applegate Story" from 3/12/22.

Snippet from original:

Russian agents came to the home of Google’s top executive in Moscow to deliver a frightening ultimatum last September: take down an app that had drawn the ire of Russian President Vladimir Putin within 24 hours or be taken to prison.

Google quickly moved the woman to a hotel where she checked in under an assumed name and might be protected by the presence of other guests and hotel security, according to people with knowledge of the matter. The same agents — believed by company officials to be from Russia’s FSB, a successor to the KGB intelligence service — then showed up at her room to tell her the clock was still ticking.

Within hours, an app designed to help Russians register protest votes against Putin could no longer be downloaded from Google or Apple, whose main representative in Moscow faced a similarly harrowing sequence. Titans of American technology had been brought to their knees by some of the most primitive intimidation tactics in the Kremlin playbook.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/12/russia-putin-google-apple-navalny/

Update from today:

Apple has resumed allowing Russians to download an app run by supporters of jailed Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny after criticism that it was acceding to unreasonable government demands for censorship.

That changed this week, according to independent researchers and Navalny’s chief of staff, Leonid Volkov.

Apple spokesmen declined to comment on the decision.

Apps are an especially critical form of communication in Russia now because the country’s censorship apparatus has not been able to block or modify content flowing from installed apps to users’ phones.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/06/russia-ukraine-war-news-putin-live-updates/#link-J22SBWVZNVHRVLCK2MQHAMMILQ

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/CraigCaplan/status/1511880639934521344

Does this act do anything different than we are already doing?

I just looked at the summary of the bill. It seems a big part of it is reducing bureaucratic barriers to speed up the delivery of weapon systems. Also, the bill waives "(1) a requirement that prohibits a loan period from exceeding five years, (2) a requirement that the United States may recall the loaned defense article at any time, (3) a requirement that the receiving party has agreed to pay the United States all costs incurred in leasing the defense article..."

[Cashew]

https://twitter.com/CraigCaplan/status/1511880639934521344

Lend Lease? How about giving them stuff for free rather than driving them further into debt?

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/CraigCaplan/status/1511880639934521344

Lend Lease? How about giving them stuff for free rather than driving them further into debt?

It essentially does that [see my previous post.] The bill allows the US to waive any right to repayment for the defense articles being leased until Russia essentially gives back Crimea (so, basically forever) or until Russia has reduced its military forces on Ukraine's eastern border to levels maintained prior to March 1, 2021.

[NOVA Green]

Surprised we haven't seen a spotting from our resident Atlas NYC Yellow Avatar guru today on market updates.

Comrade Jaichind has not recently posted, but perhaps he or other posters might be able to explain what this means to us "laypeople".

The United States has started blocking Russia from making debt payments using dollars held in American banks, a move designed to deplete its international currency reserves and potentially push Russia toward its first foreign currency debt default in a century.

A Treasury Department spokeswoman said the action was taken on Monday. It was the same day that more than half a billion dollars in Russian sovereign debt payments came due. The new restriction, the spokeswoman said, is intended to force Russia to choose between draining the remaining dollar reserves it has in Russia or using new revenue (from natural gas payments, for example) to make bond payments to avoid defaulting on its debt.

Since Russia invaded Ukraine in late February and sanctions were imposed, the Russian government has kept up its foreign currency debt payments. While it has shown a willingness to pay, it has been able to pay investors using American banks with the approval of the U.S. government. Last month, the Treasury Department created an exemption from its sanctions that allowed Americans to accept debt payments from Russia until May 25 to avoid destabilizing the broader financial system.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/05/business/russia-debt-dollars.html

The Treasury Department on Monday prohibited Russia from withdrawing funds held in American banks to pay its debt obligations, a major escalation aimed at forcing the Kremlin to pick between a catastrophic default and other difficult economic measures.

The Biden administration will separately on Wednesday announce an additional sanctions package that includes a ban on all new investment in Russia, sanctions on Russian banks and state-owned enterprises, and measures targeting Russian officials, according to a person familiar with the matter, speaking on the condition of anonymity to reflect measures not yet announced. These steps are being taken in coordination with the Group of Seven and the European Union.

Until now, the Biden administration had allowed Russia to continue to repurpose the substantial funds it has kept in U.S. financial institutions to make required payments on its sovereign debt. But with two large payments coming due — and amid evidence of mass killings in Bucha, Ukraine — the Treasury Department changed course, blocking the Kremlin from processing payments on the Russian bonds.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/05/russia-ukraine-war-news-zelensky-live-updates/#link-SRP2KIZC6ZHTRAKPSY4GZ2PFYQ

The Biden administration has blocked Russia from using U.S. banks to make good on foreign debt payments, officials said, pitching Moscow closer to its first sovereign default in more than two decades.

All avenues for Moscow to pay aren’t closed and in theory it has plenty of dollars to make the payments. The Treasury spokeswoman said Russia could pay the bonds using its foreign currency reserves or tap proceeds of new revenue. She said the action applied to U.S. financial institutions.

Russia owed foreign investors about $2 billion for one of the bonds, which matured Monday, and another $84 million in interest payments on a second bond. Russia’s National Settlement Depository website showed the Ministry of Finance ordered payment for the $2 billion bond to go through on Monday. The Treasury move effectively blocked the payment.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-administration-stymies-russia-debt-payments-11649184865?st=baatrw24bw9y7vs&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

I don't think that hit is fair to the poster (in a world ever more cruel and cold, at least we can try to be kind to one another here), but the idea is to basically "seize" via freezing/impounding as much of Russia's currency reserves as possible, and apparently there were still some Russian cash trenches left in US banks that were available to use to pay off debt. Why that particular cash pool had not been frozen before along with everything else that weekend immediately after the invasion prior to the banks opening for business on the following Monday, escapes me.


In other news, per the same NYT update, Europe is thinking of closing all its ports to Russian ships. That should have been done some time ago it seems to me. All of those Russian tankers with unsold oil looking for a buyer via clouding the chain of custody should just float around in the middle of the Atlantic somewhere, preferably until they run out of gas.

100% genuine and absolute honesty, as Atlas be my witness, this was not intended in any way shape or form a "hit", and tbf actually thought a bit of a compliment considering that the poster in question has been doing a pretty darn good job of covering the financial side of the house.

Although I might read and cite financial press articles, I suspect like many others on the Forum, that this is not our natural area of expertise.

So thanks for clarifying as someone who understands some of these things a bit better than some of the rest of us and sometimes it feels like the rest of us need to fill in the gap, since we're not getting our early morning financial market updates from NYC that often like we were before.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

The soft underbelly of Europe.
https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1511724733326372866

Can we (rest of NATO, US, Poland, I don't care who does it) do a quick 1968 Czechoslovakia and get rid of Orban? If we're in Hungary we might as well take out Serbia while we're at it. We didn't finish the job in 1999.

The old Warsaw Pact members such as Poland, Czechia, Slovakia and Romania have all been great at helping Ukraine and supporting a tough anti Russian stance.

Hungary was a victim of Russian imperialism in the 1956 Hungarian revolution, yet their leader is autocratic and is friendly with Putin. 

[Yoda]

https://twitter.com/CraigCaplan/status/1511880639934521344

Lend Lease? How about giving them stuff for free rather than driving them further into debt?

I 100% agree, but I'd also be all for donating money to a fund to pay for arms to give to Ukraine if it's not within Biden's powers to simply give Ukraine arms for free, which I support, but I understand Congress is a thing. If there was a way for private donors to pay to reimburse countries so they can donate fighters jets, predator-like drones, long-rage artillery and anti-ship missiles, I'd probably give way more than I could afford to said fund.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Ukraine forces repelled a Russian attack on the town of Barvinkove which is due west of Slovyansk, shooting down an attack helicopter and destroying several tanks so the Donbas offensive is off to roaring success for Russia lol
https://mobile.twitter.com/RALee85/status/1511385818048442376
https://mobile.twitter.com/emmanuel_miege/status/1511589011604873220

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/CraigCaplan/status/1511880639934521344

Lend Lease? How about giving them stuff for free rather than driving them further into debt?

I 100% agree, but I'd also be all for donating money to a fund to pay for arms to give to Ukraine if it's not within Biden's powers to simply give Ukraine arms for free, which I support, but I understand Congress is a thing. If there was a way for private donors to pay to reimburse countries so they can donate fighters jets, predator-like drones, long-rage artillery and anti-ship missiles, I'd probably give way more than I could afford to said fund.

You could always buy a used car in an Eastern European Country and donate it to a non-profit from one of the Baltic States with final destination Ukraine.

Not the original article from the same source which I overquoted and then deleted but here's a sample from the AP:

In a welding shop in Ukraine’s western city of Lviv, workers were adding steel plates to a donated pickup truck so a volunteer could drive it to the front.

“Our victory depends on us,” said Ostap Datsenko, a welder who is part of a huge volunteer effort playing a role in Ukraine’s resistance, with support from the diaspora.

But he hadn’t expected to see so much of the war, or its shrapnel, so soon.

He had been standing on the truck hurrying to finish the job before sunset Saturday when he heard a noise, looked up and saw an object whizzing through the air.

The following day, he was back at work for the finishing touches on the truck before it’s driven on Monday to eastern Ukraine, along with three other vehicles.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-business-europe-army-7977938eb02638cce497947a5ae69f88

Here's another way that people are pitching in...

THIS MIGHT BE ANOTHER LEGIT WAY TO DONATE OFF-ROAD VEHICLES TO SUPPORT THE UKRAINIAN WAR EFFORT (Haven't Checked it out, so apply with caution)

https://bysol.org/en/initiatives/offroadcars/

Really easy, you figure out how to buy a used off-road vehicle and then "donate it" to a legit outfit, they retrofit with extra tires, armored plating, but yet maintain mobility and then within 3-4 days will likely be close to the front lines.

Not sure if you could get a tax break off it however...

We donate to Doctors Without Borders as well as chipping in with other Ukrainian related refugee charities, but haven't yet been able to afford a vehicle to donate to the Ukrainian Civilian or Military needs.

Your heart and thoughts are in the right place, but last time I checked US Private Citizens can't legally export arms overseas for Government Procurement.

Ukrainian Snipers have been purchasing their own higher quality gear through the private sector, at least according to multiple articles I have read, simply to be able to run with top of the line content rather than Government issued hardware.

https://twitter.com/vorobyov/status/1509934514348474371?s=20&t=fO8kRdokC4ta9...

Meanwhile as a fan of both hip-hop and European anti-fascist artists over the years, Oxxxymiron just played a live conference in one of my favorite cities in Germany, Berlin today on 4/6/22.

Hip-Hop is International and although the dude left his country on an international tour has been rapping hard with anti-Putin lyrics since the beginning.

To my European posters, please distribute throughout Social Media since that is more likely to hit the Russian diaspora and even within "Mother Russia" than American IP addresses.

[NOVA Green]

How Russian Gvt repression is basically completely destroying the Anti-War movement, courtesy of one of my favorite Capitalist newspapers, The Wall Street Journal.

WSJ doing a great job with proper international journalism (which typically is top notch), despite the crap which are their Op-Eds and Editorial Pages.

Well worth a read, and really an online subscription doesn't cost that much a month, unless you drive giant "urban assault vehicles" and getting squeezed at the pump or are starting to get hard on $$$ because you got laid off at the time of COVID and never got one of the jobs coming back, such as in Oregon where $15 / Hour is basically starting wages even outside of metro PDX and one of my buddies in the factory was telling me a story earlier today in the smoking area about how the guy at a local 7-11 is making more than him at something like $19-$20 / Hr.

Alexander Teplyakov wanted to speak out against the war in Ukraine but feared landing in prison if he took part in a public protest. So the Russian activist designed an antiwar sticker featuring Russian and Ukrainian flags and the phrase “NO TO WAR” and posted and distributed thousands of them around Moscow.

He got into trouble anyway. Russian police hauled the 23-year-old into the Presnensky district police station on March 1, according to a copy of his police records reviewed by The Wall Street Journal. Mr. Teplyakov said he was repeatedly beaten over the head by one officer while in custody. A second officer pressed a pistol to his leg and coerced him into divulging the name of a fellow activist, he added.

“He starts screaming at me to start writing,” Mr. Teplyakov said in a telephone interview. He said the police officer threatened him, saying, “We will kill you right now.”

Mr. Teplyakov was sentenced to 10 days in jail after being convicted on a charge of disobeying the police, according to a copy of a court ruling. He left for Tbilisi, Georgia, the day after he was released from custody—joining tens of thousands of Russians who have fled the crackdown on dissent and the fallout of economic sanctions following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/we-will-kill-you-how-russia-silenced-its-antiwar-movement-11649237478?mod=hp_lead_pos8

[NOVA Green]

Edit: I should have noted that actually going through the Twitter stuff you can get to the guy's webpage which has a really good breakdown of theories involving the sinking of the Russian ship.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/44925/russian-navy-ship-that-exploded-in-ukrainian-port-seen-totally-destroyed-in-satellite-image

https://twitter.com/Aviation_Intel/status/1507454878997647362?s=20&t=IrYgpVB...

Meanwhile update on the Naval Front (Sort of...) from the WSJ on 4/6/22.

Sorry all you get... shared a direct link below, but really worth a read for anybody interested in why the vaunted Russian Naval Supremacy isn't doing a better job dealing with those "pesky Ukrainians".

It's a very large article so the snippets below are simply a minor fraction of the word content as a total %.

Pay up or shut up since not going to be banned from Atlas for overquoting, let alone supporting free loaders and narcs (NOVA haters) within the same post.

A surprise Ukrainian strike on a Russian ship at a southern port city last month could curb Moscow’s plan to expand its hold on the Donbas region, eliminating a key military advantage in the Russian attack plan, Ukrainian military analysts and U.S. officials said.

The March 24 offensive against Russian navy ships docked at a captured port in Berdyansk on the Azov Sea was the first major strike on the Russian fleet, Ukrainian and U.S. officials said. The attack destroyed a ship laden with supplies, drove others back into the sea, and damaged the port facilities.

The strike ended the presumption that Russian ships could attack without the threat of a Ukrainian reply. And it has limited Russia’s ability to fire missiles and artillery as it pivots its assault toward Donbas in Ukraine’s east, said retired Adm. James Foggo, who commanded U.S. Naval Forces Europe-Africa.

Russia’s military made port cities a priority during its assault into Ukraine. It seized the city of Berdyansk, a key foothold for its future attacks in strategically important cities such as Mariupol, just days into its invasion of Ukraine, soon boasting of the advantage the port would afford its war effort.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraines-surprise-strike-on-russian-fleet-hobbles-putins-donbas-strategy-11649250001?st=3phvzfek2ss1ign&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

[NOVA Green]

Looks like there might have been some Civilian leaders executed by Russian soldiers around Kyiv as well...

Among the dead were reportedly Olha Sukhenko, the head of the village Motyzhin, and her entire family, all of whom were taken by Russian troops on 25 March.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/02/russia-ukraine-war-latest-russian-troop-withdrawal-noticeable-says-zelenskiy-us-gives-kyiv-300m-more-in-live

Update on the status of a detained Ukrainian Mayor:

Sorry, got to keep my direct quotes to a minimum, but the full story tells us how not only did Russia commit war crimes against civilians, but also how Ukrainian rural villagers were directly providing info to the Ukrainian Military and how simply sharing or "being suspected of sharing" information could cause you to end up dead in a mass grave.

A high-ranking Ukrainian official said the mayor of a town near Kyiv has been found dead, days after the country’s attorney general claimed Russian forces took the mayor, her husband and her son captive.

Sukhenko was killed in captivity, Vereshchuk stated, calling it “a war crime,” and warning those responsible that they would be “punished in accordance with international humanitarian law.”

Vereshchuk alleged on Sunday that 11 Ukrainian mayors are being held captive by Russia.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/03/russia-ukraine-war-news-putin-live-updates/#link-EE2C7OBZVRGU7G7ZMK3DNTDKAQ

Don't believe I did a follow-up on this story, with the massacres in Bucha, while meanwhile we were on vacation (Holiday in UK English), but looks like Russian troops likely murdered civilian partisans who were not actively engaged in combat activities against occupying Russian forces, but rather were feeding information to the "Resistance".

The 50-year-old mayor held together her central Ukrainian village, cut off and near the fighting at the front. She delivered food and medicine. And she helped the resistance, part of an undercover effort to send Russian troop positions and movements to her country’s military, Ukrainian officials and others involved say.

“She was the best person until her last minute,” said Mykola Kurach, the head of the village’s volunteer defense forces who led the reconnaissance effort.

Residents say the Russian aggression against locals surged as the Russians came under attacks from Ukrainian artillery and ambush teams. The Russians shot two women while hunting for Ukrainian agents, they say. The body of another man, a security guard from the local cottage compound, was found dumped down a well.

Ms. Sukhenko also took on a riskier role: helping pass information on Russian troop locations and movements to the Ukrainian army.

Mr. Kurach, the 43-year-old head of the village’s volunteer defense force, moved in with the Sukhenkos after his house was damaged by shelling. He and Ms. Sukhenko’s husband, Ihor, would head out on scouting missions or “go to work,” as they called it. They and Ms. Sukhenko shared the information with Ukrainian forces via cellphone messages, according Mr. Kurach. Ukrainian army scouts visited the house for updates.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/execution-of-village-mayor-becomes-symbol-of-russian-brutality-in-ukraine-11649176611?mod=world_trending_now_article_pos4

[NOVA Green]

UK considering sending Armored Cars to Ukraine???

Britain is drawing up plans to send armoured vehicles to Ukraine, according to The Times. Options include sending a protected patrol vehicle, such as the Mastiff, or a vehicle like the Jackal, which can be used as a reconnaissance or long-range patrol vehicle, a ministry of defence report said.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/07/russia-ukraine-war-nato-foreign-ministers-to-meet-as-zelenskiy-dismisses-fresh-sanctions-live-news

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

UK considering sending Armored Cars to Ukraine???

Britain is drawing up plans to send armoured vehicles to Ukraine, according to The Times. Options include sending a protected patrol vehicle, such as the Mastiff, or a vehicle like the Jackal, which can be used as a reconnaissance or long-range patrol vehicle, a ministry of defence report said.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/07/russia-ukraine-war-nato-foreign-ministers-to-meet-as-zelenskiy-dismisses-fresh-sanctions-live-news

The political class may like to talk about farcical and not-so-common things to get the public's attention, but when they really want something to happen, and there is consensus, it does tend to happen, and happen quickly. "Give armored trucks to Ukraine" is something I don't think there would be any hurdles for, so we can expect it to happen with haste.

[jaichind]

RUB surges to 79 contradicting Biden's prediction that it will turn into “rubble.”  Of course, Russia must be paying a cost for this.  A look later on at Russia's GDP and CPI for 2022 will give us a more clear picture of the total economic damage.  In the meantime, Russia is winning the optical war on RUB.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

RUB surges to 79 contradicting Biden's prediction that it will turn into “rubble.”  Of course, Russia must be paying a cost for this.  A look later on at Russia's GDP and CPI for 2022 will give us a more clear picture of the total economic damage.  In the meantime, Russia is winning the optical war on RUB.

99% they will default in 30 days. Check in then.

[jaichind]

RUB surges to 79 contradicting Biden's prediction that it will turn into “rubble.”  Of course, Russia must be paying a cost for this.  A look later on at Russia's GDP and CPI for 2022 will give us a more clear picture of the total economic damage.  In the meantime, Russia is winning the optical war on RUB.

99% they will default in 30 days. Check in then.

But that default is artificial and mostly about the USA government not allowing Russian entities to pay in USD that they actually have to international creditors as part of sanctions.  Going into default matters because it implies something about the resource gap an entity might have.  But if the default is about being artificially blocked from paying then I can see another round of the international seizure of Russian assets abroad but has zero impact on the flow of funds between Russia and the rest of world which would be driven by trade.

[jaichind]

Now that the Russian equities markets have reopened for a couple of weeks the MOEX index is mostly around the 2600 range which is about the same as it was back in Jun 2020.  It is for sure down 25% from pre-war levels but is not a meltdown. 

The experience of Iran shows that sanctions tend to consolidate the support of the regime and that in the medium run it actually helps industrial growth as the economy is forced de facto import substitution.  The economy becomes clearly sub-optimal but does stabilize.  What Iran could not get right was getting its financial system to work correctly.  I think getting the currency bond and equity markets stable and functional should be the main goal of the Putin regime as it looks toward medium-term survival of these sanctions which will go on for a while even if and when the war comes to an end.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/patrickjdo/status/1511978912024256512


Der Spiegel's English-language article on the subject:

https://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/possible-evidence-of-russian-atrocities-german-intelligence-intercepts-radio-traffic-discussing-the-murder-of-civilians-in-bucha-a-0a191c96-634f-4d07-8c5c-c4a772315b0d

[ugabug]

https://twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1511722816210616321

[CumbrianLefty]

That would be the ultimate bad ass thing if Ukraine could do their own Battle if Alesia at Mariupol .

Still highly unlikely. But taking back Kherson and Melitopol would also be pretty big.