Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1510948838722486273

Here's the list of 64th Motor Rifle Brigade members released by Ukrainian Military Intelligence (GRU).

https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1510962207370137606?s=20&t=uc5Orw...

[Middle-aged Europe]

The state of the gas embargo debate in Germany can largely be summed that our politicians for the most part oppose it, while the media (in the form of newspaper editorials, talkshow hosts etc.) and NGOs push for it hard.

It's noticable that this debate is conducted on two separate levels: one of morality and one of effectiveness. The politicians' standard response is that it could crash Germany's economy while it won't actually do anything to stop Russia's war in Ukraine, leading to the argument that we can't crash the economy only to feel good about ourselves.

At the same time it also leads to politicians increasingly adopting a "anything goes except for a gas embargo" stance on Ukraine. Yesterday, eeconomy minister Robert Habeck said as far as he is concerned there are now "no limitations" with regards to arms deliveries to Ukraine. Which probably means sending tanks to the Ukrainian army it's not a matter of if, but when now. (Arms deliveries are in practice often hindered and slowed down by the incompetent and ineffective bureaucracy of the defence ministry, including our somewhat lackluster defence minister.)

That Russian gas imports will come to an end in the medium term is by now consensus and implementation a primary task of the economy ministry these days, but again it's a matter of debate "when" will be the best moment to do it. The "when" could be sped up signifcantly due to pressure from the EU-level, especially considering that a couple of Germany's leding politicians have already signaled that they're in principle ready to do a gas embargo if that's what the EU really wants.

[Storr]

Zalgiris beat Red Star Belgrade 103-98 in overtime.

https://twitter.com/BasketNews_com/status/1510651578256084994?s=20&t=uc5Orwh...

[LabourJersey]

https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1510695804750766093

 He is  Rabid nationalist disguised as a Christian. Surely if Jesus's injunction against the wicked using his name in the furtherance of evil is true, then there's a special place in h*** for Kirill.

I have said for years if I'm going back to the Church it's either Catholic or Orthodox cause I frankly think Protestantism makes no sense.

This solidifies Catholicism for me.

It's pretty unfair to dismiss the whole of Orthodox Christianity just because of Kirill. Kirill's awfulness doesn't negate the whole of the denomination

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1511132790976303108
https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1511101509227978754

[Mopsus]

^ I wonder why Wikipedia’s map hasn’t been updated to show Ukrainian gains in the northeast.

[Astatine]

^ I wonder why Wikipedia’s map hasn’t been updated to show Ukrainian gains in the northeast.

It was updated at some point, but that was reverted, seems like an edit war broke out: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File_talk:2022_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine.svg

[Omega21]

This is the "goal" map that pro-Russian Twitter users (or bots) have begun sharing

Not sure if even this is realistic though.

[Person Man]

This is the "goal" map that pro-Russian Twitter users (or bots) have begun sharing

Not sure if even this is realistic though.

Maybe they are getting half that. And they are probably going to lose at least as many men as they already have.

[Tintrlvr]

This is the "goal" map that pro-Russian Twitter users (or bots) have begun sharing

Not sure if even this is realistic though.

Maybe they are getting half that. And they are probably going to lose at least as many men as they already have.

I can't see Russia taking more territory than they already hold, except possibly the rest of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. Odessa, Zaporizhzhia, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, etc. are impossibilities. And more likely than not the Russians lose Kherson in the next few weeks.

[pppolitics]

This is the "goal" map that pro-Russian Twitter users (or bots) have begun sharing

Not sure if even this is realistic though.

Good luck with that.

Even Russian speakers in Ukraine don't like Putin or Russia anymore.

Look at what the Russians did to Mariupol, a majority Russian-speaking city.

[dead0man]

https://twitter.com/GissiSim/status/1510979083257139204?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctw...   

[Dereich]

This is the "goal" map that pro-Russian Twitter users (or bots) have begun sharing

Not sure if even this is realistic though.

Good luck with that.

Even Russian speakers in Ukraine don't like Putin or Russia anymore.

Look at what the Russians did to Mariupol, a majority Russian-speaking city.

Did? More like "are still doing." It is worth remembering that Mariupol of all cities is somehow still holding out after more than a month. If the Russians can't quickly capture what should have been the easiest city in all of Ukraine, there's zero chance they'll have an easy time taking the other big eastern cities.

[Omega21]

This is the "goal" map that pro-Russian Twitter users (or bots) have begun sharing

Not sure if even this is realistic though.

Good luck with that.

Even Russian speakers in Ukraine don't like Putin or Russia anymore.

Look at what the Russians did to Mariupol, a majority Russian-speaking city.

Did? More like "are still doing." It is worth remembering that Mariupol of all cities is somehow still holding out after more than a month. If the Russians can't quickly capture what should have been the easiest city in all of Ukraine, there's zero chance they'll have an easy time taking the other big eastern cities.

Need to just clarify that the city itself has already been seized, all UA forces have pulled back into the factories and are making their last stand there.

One of these industrial positions got hit with a TOS just in the past couple of days, and dear God, it turned something like 30 men into charcoal. In spite of that, some still seem to be refusing to surrender and are holding.

This has been confirmed by independent OSINT enthusiasts online, so it is not just Russian propaganda.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://mobile.twitter.com/The_IntelHub/status/1511345479161892877

[Person Man]

https://mobile.twitter.com/The_IntelHub/status/1511345479161892877

Is this merely symbolic or does this represent the end of formal relations?

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://mobile.twitter.com/The_IntelHub/status/1511345479161892877

Is this merely symbolic or does this represent the end of formal relations?

They're still maintaining diplomatic relations, even the Eastern European countries who've expelled their Russian ambassadors along with the other diplomats.

[Storr]

Big if true notice:

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1511403733279719431?s=20&t=7g_XkrbvM...

[President Johnson]

I can't imagine Ukraine taking it to be cut off the Black Sea (and neither should they). Especially Odessa is very important for wheat exports, that are key for the country's economy. Most of Ukraine's exports are shipped through the Black Sea. That can't just be shifted on the landway through Poland.

If Russians don't give up, the West needs to everything to get Ukraine in a position to regain its entire territory and throw the Russians out. Maybe such a devastating defeat would also force Putin out. I know, not the most likely outcome, but I'm really hoping for this.

[The Dowager Mod]

https://mobile.twitter.com/The_IntelHub/status/1511345479161892877

Is this merely symbolic or does this represent the end of formal relations?

Remember that list of FSB agents Ukraine released a couple weeks ago?
This is probably a result.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://mobile.twitter.com/The_IntelHub/status/1511345479161892877

Is this merely symbolic or does this represent the end of formal relations?

Remember that list of FSB agents Ukraine released a couple weeks ago?
This is probably a result.

Yeah, the critera for being expelled from Germany - and probably a couple of the other countries as well - was the status as a Russian intelligence asset.

[Middle-aged Europe]

No specific timetable on that at this point though.


https://mobile.twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1511348587183099914

[Storr]

I can't imagine Ukraine taking it to be cut off the Black Sea (and neither should they). Especially Odessa is very important for wheat exports, that are key for the country's economy. Most of Ukraine's exports are shipped through the Black Sea. That can't just be shifted on the landway through Poland.

If Russians don't give up, the West needs to everything to get Ukraine in a position to regain its entire territory and throw the Russians out. Maybe such a devastating defeat would also force Putin out. I know, not the most likely outcome, but I'm really hoping for this.

I'd assume the Ukrainians would put priority in taking the Donbass over Crimea. The Donbass is majority Russian-language speaking, but it is not majority Russians (ethnically). There's a least some pro-Ukrainian support in the region, even if Russia pretends there is not. Furthermore, regaining control over your internationally recognized borders (only Russia recognizes separatist independence) is allowed in international law.

Taking Crimea would be extremely difficult. All military campaigns there (2014 being an exception because one side didn't fight) have been extremely bloody. Being a peninsula makes it harder to maneuver attacking land forces and favors defending forces simply because the sea limits where offensive land forces can go.

[Omega21]

I can't imagine Ukraine taking it to be cut off the Black Sea (and neither should they). Especially Odessa is very important for wheat exports, that are key for the country's economy. Most of Ukraine's exports are shipped through the Black Sea. That can't just be shifted on the landway through Poland.

If Russians don't give up, the West needs to everything to get Ukraine in a position to regain its entire territory and throw the Russians out. Maybe such a devastating defeat would also force Putin out. I know, not the most likely outcome, but I'm really hoping for this.

I'd assume the Ukrainians would put priority in taking the Donbass over Crimea. The Donbass is majority Russian-language speaking, but it is not majority Russians (ethnically). There's a least some pro-Ukrainian support in the region, even if Russia pretends there is not. Furthermore, regaining control over your internationally recognized borders (only Russia recognizes separatist independence) is allowed in international law.

Taking Crimea would be extremely difficult. All military campaigns there (2014 being an exception because one side didn't fight) have been extremely bloody. Being a peninsula makes it harder to maneuver attacking land forces and favors defending forces simply because the sea limits where offensive land forces can go.

Well, that and the Ruskies would probably be willing to use tactical nukes if Russia proper was attacked (which to them includes Crimea), so that wont happen.

[Horus]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1511031502049587206

If this doesn’t happen, that would be grounds to defund the UN.

Which would in turn make the UN dominated by China.

The UN is already completely useless.