Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[President Johnson]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1511031502049587206

If this doesn’t happen, that would be grounds to defund the UN.

Which would in turn make the UN dominated by China.

The UN is already completely useless.

The Security Council should be abolished or reformed, so that veto powers no longer exist. It's beyond depressing Russia and China can block everything.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1511031502049587206

If this doesn’t happen, that would be grounds to defund the UN.

Which would in turn make the UN dominated by China.

The UN is already completely useless.

The Security Council should be abolished or reformed, so that veto powers no longer exist. It's beyond depressing Russia and China can block everything.

At that point you might as well abolish the UN, its merely an avenue for some semblance of negotiating ground.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Big if true notice:

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1511403733279719431?s=20&t=7g_XkrbvM...

According to rumblings on social media Ukrainian troops have engaged Russians troops in the suburbs of Kherson

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1511031502049587206

If this doesn’t happen, that would be grounds to defund the UN.

Which would in turn make the UN dominated by China.

The UN is already completely useless.

The Security Council should be abolished or reformed, so that veto powers no longer exist. It's beyond depressing Russia and China can block everything.

At that point you might as well abolish the UN, its merely an avenue for some semblance of negotiating ground.

Even if this is true, the importance of the UN in facilitating discussion between people and countries who wouldn't otherwise be talking shouldn't be understated.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Where does Germany stand with regards to supplying Ukraine with tanks?


The Ukrainian military wants get its hands on the Marder infantry fighting vehicle: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marder_%28IFV%29
Up until now, defence minister Christine Lambrecht (SPD) has opposed such a delivery arguing that the vehicles would have to come from the active inventory of the army, therefore ripping a hole in Germany's own line of defence. Bucha could very well prove to be another game-changer here, representatives from CDU, FDP, and Greens are certainly pushing in that direction now.

Either alternatively or in addition to that, there seem to be 50 retired Gepard anti-aircraft tanks available (downside being that they can't really used for ground combat): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flakpanzer_Gepard

When is finally a decision to be expected here? Maybe sometime this week or the next?

[Helsinkian]

You know, everyone thinks that the League of Nations was useless and inefficient, but at least the LN managed to expel Soviet Union from its membership when the Soviets attacked Finland...

[GoTfan]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1511031502049587206

If this doesn’t happen, that would be grounds to defund the UN.

Which would in turn make the UN dominated by China.

The UN is already completely useless.

The Security Council should be abolished or reformed, so that veto powers no longer exist. It's beyond depressing Russia and China can block everything.

At that point you might as well abolish the UN, its merely an avenue for some semblance of negotiating ground.

Even if this is true, the importance of the UN in facilitating discussion between people and countries who wouldn't otherwise be talking shouldn't be understated.

To add to this, the UN's purpose is to prevent another world war, and they've been successful  in that regard.

[Omega21]

Where does Germany stand with regards to supplying Ukraine with tanks?


The Ukrainian military wants get its hands on the Marder infantry fighting vehicle: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marder_%28IFV%29
Up until now, defence minister Christine Lambrecht (SPD) has opposed such a delivery arguing that the vehicles would have to come from the active inventory of the army, therefore ripping a hole in Germany's own line of defence. Bucha could very well prove to be another game-changer here, representatives from CDU, FDP, and Greens are certainly pushing in that direction now.

Either alternatively or in addition to that, there seem to be 50 retired Gepard anti-aircraft tanks available (downside being that they can't really used for ground combat): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flakpanzer_Gepard

When is finally a decision to be expected here? Maybe sometime this week or the next?

Ukraine does not need tanks. They are just big metal targets for drones.

Defensively, fast moving light soldiers with AT weapons are much more useful & effective.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Where does Germany stand with regards to supplying Ukraine with tanks?


The Ukrainian military wants get its hands on the Marder infantry fighting vehicle: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marder_%28IFV%29
Up until now, defence minister Christine Lambrecht (SPD) has opposed such a delivery arguing that the vehicles would have to come from the active inventory of the army, therefore ripping a hole in Germany's own line of defence. Bucha could very well prove to be another game-changer here, representatives from CDU, FDP, and Greens are certainly pushing in that direction now.

Either alternatively or in addition to that, there seem to be 50 retired Gepard anti-aircraft tanks available (downside being that they can't really used for ground combat): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flakpanzer_Gepard

When is finally a decision to be expected here? Maybe sometime this week or the next?

Ukraine does not need tanks. They are just big metal targets for drones.

Defensively, fast moving light soldiers with AT weapons are much more useful & effective.

Well, the Ukrainian military has requested the Marder and you can't tell Ukraine how to fight their war. Evidence of the past one-and-a-half months points to them making more accurate strategic assessments than Western European governments anyway.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Where does Germany stand with regards to supplying Ukraine with tanks?


The Ukrainian military wants get its hands on the Marder infantry fighting vehicle: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marder_%28IFV%29
Up until now, defence minister Christine Lambrecht (SPD) has opposed such a delivery arguing that the vehicles would have to come from the active inventory of the army, therefore ripping a hole in Germany's own line of defence. Bucha could very well prove to be another game-changer here, representatives from CDU, FDP, and Greens are certainly pushing in that direction now.

Either alternatively or in addition to that, there seem to be 50 retired Gepard anti-aircraft tanks available (downside being that they can't really used for ground combat): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flakpanzer_Gepard

When is finally a decision to be expected here? Maybe sometime this week or the next?

Ukraine does not need tanks. They are just big metal targets for drones.

Defensively, fast moving light soldiers with AT weapons are much more useful & effective.

Well, the Ukrainian military has requested the Marder and you can't tell Ukraine how to fight their war. Evidence of the past one-and-a-half months points to them making more accurate strategic assessments than Western European governments anyway.

Plus they will need tanks for their counter offensive

[Oryxslayer]

You know, everyone thinks that the League of Nations was useless and inefficient, but at least the LN managed to expel Soviet Union from its membership when the Soviets attacked Finland...

And they also of course expelled the Fascist states when they invaded their neighbors. Many however consider this, or more appropriately the existence of powerful nations (also US) outside the League, to be a weakness. It sapped that body of any legitimacy and power if countries were outside of, and not observing, it and therefore beyond it's jurisdiction and influence.

[NOVA Green]

Where does Germany stand with regards to supplying Ukraine with tanks?


The Ukrainian military wants get its hands on the Marder infantry fighting vehicle: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marder_%28IFV%29
Up until now, defence minister Christine Lambrecht (SPD) has opposed such a delivery arguing that the vehicles would have to come from the active inventory of the army, therefore ripping a hole in Germany's own line of defence. Bucha could very well prove to be another game-changer here, representatives from CDU, FDP, and Greens are certainly pushing in that direction now.

Either alternatively or in addition to that, there seem to be 50 retired Gepard anti-aircraft tanks available (downside being that they can't really used for ground combat): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flakpanzer_Gepard

When is finally a decision to be expected here? Maybe sometime this week or the next?

Ukraine does not need tanks. They are just big metal targets for drones.

Defensively, fast moving light soldiers with AT weapons are much more useful & effective.

Very good point especially considering the effectiveness with which the Ukrainian Military has previously used such tactics thus far in the War.

I remember reading an article a couple weeks back about civilian donations of various items from the Baltic Countries, which would then move them through Poland and into Slovakia, where they would then be received by Ukrainian Soldiers in some smaller makeshift warehouses.

Some of the items most in demand were 4-Wheel driver vehicles capable of off-road mobility, and various representatives of Ukrainian Forces from different fronts would show up daily and pick and choose what was needed most and where.

Yeah... sending Ukraine a bunch of pickup trucks, jeeps, Harley's,  etc might not be a bad idea at all....

Plus is duel use technology so can also assist in rebuilding efforts later down the line.

[rc18]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1511031502049587206

If this doesn’t happen, that would be grounds to defund the UN.

Which would in turn make the UN dominated by China.

The UN is already completely useless.

The Security Council should be abolished or reformed, so that veto powers no longer exist. It's beyond depressing Russia and China can block everything.

At that point you might as well abolish the UN, its merely an avenue for some semblance of negotiating ground.

Even if this is true, the importance of the UN in facilitating discussion between people and countries who wouldn't otherwise be talking shouldn't be understated.

To add to this, the UN's purpose is to prevent another world war, and they've been successful in that regard.

Nuclear weapons have been (so far) sucessful in that. Don't know what contribution the UN has had, if any.

[Frodo]

If China wishes to drain its treasury (and economic vitality) keeping the Russian economy afloat, now would be the time:

https://twitter.com/ger313/status/1511430653660729344

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Where does Germany stand with regards to supplying Ukraine with tanks?


The Ukrainian military wants get its hands on the Marder infantry fighting vehicle: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marder_%28IFV%29
Up until now, defence minister Christine Lambrecht (SPD) has opposed such a delivery arguing that the vehicles would have to come from the active inventory of the army, therefore ripping a hole in Germany's own line of defence. Bucha could very well prove to be another game-changer here, representatives from CDU, FDP, and Greens are certainly pushing in that direction now.

Either alternatively or in addition to that, there seem to be 50 retired Gepard anti-aircraft tanks available (downside being that they can't really used for ground combat): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flakpanzer_Gepard

When is finally a decision to be expected here? Maybe sometime this week or the next?

Ukraine does not need tanks. They are just big metal targets for drones.

Defensively, fast moving light soldiers with AT weapons are much more useful & effective.

Well, the Ukrainian military has requested the Marder and you can't tell Ukraine how to fight their war. Evidence of the past one-and-a-half months points to them making more accurate strategic assessments than Western European governments anyway.

They’ve requested the Marder because it’s what Germany has, but in the long run, requesting many different kinds of complex vehicles that need their own training + spare parts + maintenance could exacerbate logistical issues.

It would probably be better to backfill Eastern Europe and have it send systems similar to the ones Ukraine already uses, simultaneously picking a small number of new platforms to train Ukrainians on for the long term (e.g. one kind of tank, some new AA, and one or two kinds of jet).

I can understand why Ukraine wouldn’t be asking for that given how much trouble the West has had providing backfill for things like the Slovakian S-300, but it seems like the ideal solution in the long run. It just requires Europe to be more United than Ukraine thinks it is.

Edit: another reason Ukraine made its pitch to Germany was because 100 Marders are being dismantled after being removed from service, so it wouldn’t cost the Bundeswehr anything but spare parts. Still, Weld reports it’d take 4 months to fix them. Getting a more modern, widely produced IFV might be more politically challenging than getting the Marders, but Ukraine wouldn’t have to wait 4 months for repair before beginning training and there’d be enough stocks to keep their army resupplied.

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/Blake_Allen13/status/1511424688924278789

[NOVA Green]

So don't recall we have seen any updates from Borodyanka since Ukrainian leaders said it might be even worse than Bucha some 24-48 hours ago. (Apologies been on vacation at the Ocean so been on Coastal Time and don't remember exact date-stamps).

So now am back home here are a few initial reports:

As many as 200 people are missing and presumed dead under the rubble of this small town that has been devastated by Russian airstrikes, the acting mayor said Tuesday.

But it lies on a key access road leading to the capital, and it was among the first communities to be hit by Russia’s aerial bombardment in Ukraine’s six-week-old war, Ukrainian officials said.

The town was visited by New York Times journalists on Tuesday, after Russian forces withdrew. The scars left behind are shocking. Great gashes have been sliced through multistory complexes along the main street. Four apartment buildings collapsed in the airstrikes, the layers of apartments crushed like a concertina to ground level.

Residents described fearful hours in the opening days of the invasion as Russian jets screamed overhead and explosions followed just seconds afterward.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/04/05/world/ukraine-russia-war/ukraine-airstrikes-borodyanka

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1511464324782567426?s=20&t=FbhwrOq6YXXy...

https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1511362277106139143?s=20&t=FbhwrOq6Y...

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1511268715962249218?s=20&t=FbhwrOq6YXXy7...

[NOVA Green]

Hypersonic Missile Update:

The United States, Australia and Britain announced on Tuesday that they were bolstering their cooperation on developing new hypersonic weapons, an expansion of an agreement reached last year to build new nuclear-powered submarines.

Hypersonic weapons, which maneuver at several times the speed of sound, can potentially evade missile defense systems and quickly strike a target even if it is on the other side of the world.

The announcement is an attempt to jump-start the work of the United States and two key allies at a time when Russia and China have made important advances in developing and fielding hypersonic weapons.

Russia and China have invested heavily in hypersonic technology, and by some measures have moved ahead of the United States and its allies. Last August, China tested a hypersonic missile that circled the globe twice before hitting its target.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/04/05/world/ukraine-russia-war/after-russian-advances-us-britain-and-australia-expand-partnership-to-develop-hypersonic-missiles

[NOVA Green]

Sunday afternoon PST and 3 hours later on EST.

Currently after Midnight in Europe...

NYT citing "military experts" is the next key battleground in the Russian Invasion of Ukraine War 2.0

Worth a read since this is a limited excerpt.

Having withdrawn from much of northern Ukraine, Russia appears to be pivoting to try to seize the eastern city of Sloviansk in the coming days, an effort that would connect its soldiers with Russia-backed forces in the region of Donbas, military experts say.

Russian success in capturing the Luhansk and Donetsk regions — two areas where there has been intense fighting between Ukrainian and pro-Russian separatists since 2014 — may hinge on its ability to capture Sloviansk, a city of 111,000 about 400 miles east of the capital, Kyiv.

Sloviansk lies in a strategic location near the eastern Donbas region, and its seizure could allow Russia to link its forces in northeast and southeast Ukraine. The city was an early flash point when war broke out between Ukrainian forces and Russia-backed rebels.

Failure to seize the city now could mean that Russia’s “campaign to capture the entirety of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts will likely fail,” the ISW report said.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/04/05/world/ukraine-russia-war/the-next-pivotal-battle-in-ukraine-sloviansk-military-analysts-say

[GoTfan]

I predict the Bucha Massacre will have a similar effect to the Malmedy Massacre.

During the Battle of the Bulge, the Germans executed some 84 US POWs in a massacre as an attempt to demoralise the US forces in the area. It had the exact opposite result though, only hardening their resolve. The 328th Infantry Regiment had a standing order for the rest of the war: all SS soldiers will be shot on sight. The 11th Armored Division massacred 80 SS soldiers at Chenogne not long after.

I expect several Ukrainian units will now have issued "Take no prisoners" orders in response. You want to commit war crimes against Ukrainian civilians, don't be too bloody surprised when they stop taking prisoners.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Sunday afternoon PST and 3 hours later on EST.

Currently after Midnight in Europe...

NYT citing "military experts" is the next key battleground in the Russian Invasion of Ukraine War 2.0

Worth a read since this is a limited excerpt.

Having withdrawn from much of northern Ukraine, Russia appears to be pivoting to try to seize the eastern city of Sloviansk in the coming days, an effort that would connect its soldiers with Russia-backed forces in the region of Donbas, military experts say.

Russian success in capturing the Luhansk and Donetsk regions — two areas where there has been intense fighting between Ukrainian and pro-Russian separatists since 2014 — may hinge on its ability to capture Sloviansk, a city of 111,000 about 400 miles east of the capital, Kyiv.

Sloviansk lies in a strategic location near the eastern Donbas region, and its seizure could allow Russia to link its forces in northeast and southeast Ukraine. The city was an early flash point when war broke out between Ukrainian forces and Russia-backed rebels.

Failure to seize the city now could mean that Russia’s “campaign to capture the entirety of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts will likely fail,” the ISW report said.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/04/05/world/ukraine-russia-war/the-next-pivotal-battle-in-ukraine-sloviansk-military-analysts-say

They are asking a very difficult task of there troops in doing that. They’d have to make up huge amounts of ground to get to Sloviansk at a faster pace then they have been able muster at this point, through heavily defended ground, with the mud and rain seasons starting, and by doing so will force there troops to literally turn their backs to the Ukraine divisions that just won the battle of Kyiv

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/AlexTaylorNews/status/1511205766576971781

[Storr]

Meanwhile in China:

https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1511438577963606030?s=20&t=UVQ69rJm1xz...

[NOVA Green]

I predict the Bucha Massacre will have a similar effect to the Malmedy Massacre.

During the Battle of the Bulge, the Germans executed some 84 US POWs in a massacre as an attempt to demoralise the US forces in the area. It had the exact opposite result though, only hardening their resolve. The 328th Infantry Regiment had a standing order for the rest of the war: all SS soldiers will be shot on sight. The 11th Armored Division massacred 80 SS soldiers at Chenogne not long after.

I expect several Ukrainian units will now have issued "Take no prisoners" orders in response, and I fully support it. You want to commit war crimes against Ukrainian civilians, don't be too bloody surprised when they stop taking prisoners.

Umm... GoTfan please review the comment bolded, since I doubt honestly and sincerely believe that you don't support Ukrainian massacres of Russian POWs.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/TrentTelenko/status/1511108357712719872
This guy thread does a great job laying out that thanks to Russia pissing away valuable men and resources in the battle of Kyiv that the Russian troops in Melitopol are set up for a devastating defeat meaning between Kherson and this a Southern collapse for RAF could be coming soon 🤩