Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[NOVA Green]

Surprised we haven't seen a spotting from our resident Atlas NYC Yellow Avatar guru today on market updates.

Comrade Jaichind has not recently posted, but perhaps he or other posters might be able to explain what this means to us "laypeople".

The United States has started blocking Russia from making debt payments using dollars held in American banks, a move designed to deplete its international currency reserves and potentially push Russia toward its first foreign currency debt default in a century.

A Treasury Department spokeswoman said the action was taken on Monday. It was the same day that more than half a billion dollars in Russian sovereign debt payments came due. The new restriction, the spokeswoman said, is intended to force Russia to choose between draining the remaining dollar reserves it has in Russia or using new revenue (from natural gas payments, for example) to make bond payments to avoid defaulting on its debt.

Since Russia invaded Ukraine in late February and sanctions were imposed, the Russian government has kept up its foreign currency debt payments. While it has shown a willingness to pay, it has been able to pay investors using American banks with the approval of the U.S. government. Last month, the Treasury Department created an exemption from its sanctions that allowed Americans to accept debt payments from Russia until May 25 to avoid destabilizing the broader financial system.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/05/business/russia-debt-dollars.html

The Treasury Department on Monday prohibited Russia from withdrawing funds held in American banks to pay its debt obligations, a major escalation aimed at forcing the Kremlin to pick between a catastrophic default and other difficult economic measures.

The Biden administration will separately on Wednesday announce an additional sanctions package that includes a ban on all new investment in Russia, sanctions on Russian banks and state-owned enterprises, and measures targeting Russian officials, according to a person familiar with the matter, speaking on the condition of anonymity to reflect measures not yet announced. These steps are being taken in coordination with the Group of Seven and the European Union.

Until now, the Biden administration had allowed Russia to continue to repurpose the substantial funds it has kept in U.S. financial institutions to make required payments on its sovereign debt. But with two large payments coming due — and amid evidence of mass killings in Bucha, Ukraine — the Treasury Department changed course, blocking the Kremlin from processing payments on the Russian bonds.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/05/russia-ukraine-war-news-zelensky-live-updates/#link-SRP2KIZC6ZHTRAKPSY4GZ2PFYQ

The Biden administration has blocked Russia from using U.S. banks to make good on foreign debt payments, officials said, pitching Moscow closer to its first sovereign default in more than two decades.

All avenues for Moscow to pay aren’t closed and in theory it has plenty of dollars to make the payments. The Treasury spokeswoman said Russia could pay the bonds using its foreign currency reserves or tap proceeds of new revenue. She said the action applied to U.S. financial institutions.

Russia owed foreign investors about $2 billion for one of the bonds, which matured Monday, and another $84 million in interest payments on a second bond. Russia’s National Settlement Depository website showed the Ministry of Finance ordered payment for the $2 billion bond to go through on Monday. The Treasury move effectively blocked the payment.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-administration-stymies-russia-debt-payments-11649184865?st=baatrw24bw9y7vs&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

https://twitter.com/Mariana_Betsa/status/1510966912724963328

Where Kadyrov's Chechen thugs in the area at the time? This seems like something that his thugs would excel at.

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/mhmck/status/1511518549055094784

[Logical]

Hungary sticks out like a sore thumb in the V4. The Czechs, Slovaks and Poles are emptying their Cold War armories for the Ukrainians. The Czechs even have a fund where you can donate to the local Ukrainian embassy who will use the money to buy arms directly from Czech suppliers. Meanwhile Orban still won't allow planes and trains carrying weapons for Ukraine through Hungary.

[Frodo]

Hungary sticks out like a sore thumb in the V4. The Czechs, Slovaks and Poles are emptying their Cold War armories for the Ukrainians. The Czechs even have a fund where you can donate to the local Ukrainian embassy who will use the money to buy arms directly from Czech suppliers. Meanwhile Orban still won't allow planes and trains carrying weapons for Ukraine through Hungary.

Considering where Hungary is heading, I would almost prefer they stick with their outdated weaponry while their more democratic neighbors surrounding them (having sent Ukraine all their vestigial Soviet weapons) are armed with the most state-of-the-art equipment to replace them.  

[NOVA Green]

Interestingly enough was doing a search on Twitter for Kherson and all sorts of Russian Propaganda is spamming 50% of the search results, but apparently now Twitter is taking actions against Russian Government Disinformation campaigns?

Twitter has announced it is introducing new measures against Russian government accounts to reduce the impact of official propaganda on the social network.

The official accounts will no longer be “recommended” to Twitter users across all categories of the app, including in searches, the platform said in a statement.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/apr/05/russia-ukraine-war-latest-news-live-updates-zelenskiy-address-un-united-nations-borodyanka-atrocities-bucha

[Cashew]

https://twitter.com/LostWeapons/status/1511495764689633283?s=20&t=JxS5a7EPBp...

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/AP/status/1511526536264007680

[Hindsight was 2020]

Ignoring the fact this guy is doing a sock puppet character bit, this guy did a pretty breakdown of the numbers on both sides and honestly I didn’t realize how lopsided the numbers can be in Ukraine’s favor by the start of summer because Putin can’t/won’t risk conscription. If Putin keeps course and just bring in some reserves from the Caucuses and the Far East at best Russia is looking at 220-310k in the field with roughly 30k separatists militias and Chechens to assist. While if Ukraine does only a halfway decent mass mobilization they can field an army of 740-800k troops and unlike Russia there is no numbers in the field to tell us how many militants, insurgents, and partisans are in the field to assist Ukraine the way the Chechen and separatist are.  

[GoTfan]

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1511031502049587206

If this doesn’t happen, that would be grounds to defund the UN.

Which would in turn make the UN dominated by China.

The UN is already completely useless.

The Security Council should be abolished or reformed, so that veto powers no longer exist. It's beyond depressing Russia and China can block everything.

At that point you might as well abolish the UN, its merely an avenue for some semblance of negotiating ground.

Even if this is true, the importance of the UN in facilitating discussion between people and countries who wouldn't otherwise be talking shouldn't be understated.

To add to this, the UN's purpose is to prevent another world war, and they've been successful in that regard.

Nuclear weapons have been (so far) sucessful in that. Don't know what contribution the UN has had, if any.

It's called MAD because you have to be mad to believe in it. I don;t believe mutually assured destruction is as big a deterrent as everyone pretends it is because the entire concept rests on the idea that any leader would rational enough not to hit the big red button.

That's an awfully risky gamble to take.

And without the UN, we're back to the pre-WW1 way of sorting things out, and I don't think we have the modern statesmen capable of that.

[CumbrianLefty]

I predict the Bucha Massacre will have a similar effect to the Malmedy Massacre.

During the Battle of the Bulge, the Germans executed some 84 US POWs in a massacre as an attempt to demoralise the US forces in the area. It had the exact opposite result though, only hardening their resolve. The 328th Infantry Regiment had a standing order for the rest of the war: all SS soldiers will be shot on sight. The 11th Armored Division massacred 80 SS soldiers at Chenogne not long after.

I expect several Ukrainian units will now have issued "Take no prisoners" orders in response, and I fully support it. You want to commit war crimes against Ukrainian civilians, don't be too bloody surprised when they stop taking prisoners.

Umm... GoTfan please review the comment bolded, since I doubt honestly and sincerely believe that you don't support Ukrainian massacres of Russian POWs.

Apart from its immorality, it would surely be ineffective in that Russian troops would be less likely to widely surrender in the way they have been doing if they thought they would all die anyway.

Btw the episode cited above is one often used by neo-Nazis (along with better known stuff like the bombing of Dresden) to "prove" the Allied powers were actually no better than Germany in the way they conducted the war. So as they say "lets be careful out there".

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I predict the Bucha Massacre will have a similar effect to the Malmedy Massacre.

During the Battle of the Bulge, the Germans executed some 84 US POWs in a massacre as an attempt to demoralise the US forces in the area. It had the exact opposite result though, only hardening their resolve. The 328th Infantry Regiment had a standing order for the rest of the war: all SS soldiers will be shot on sight. The 11th Armored Division massacred 80 SS soldiers at Chenogne not long after.

I expect several Ukrainian units will now have issued "Take no prisoners" orders in response, and I fully support it. You want to commit war crimes against Ukrainian civilians, don't be too bloody surprised when they stop taking prisoners.

It’s not surprising, and telling Ukrainian soldiers that it’s morally wrong is going to have less of an impact post-Bucha, but it’s still really poor strategy.

The Americans could afford it: they were bent on removing the Nazis from power, and thus would not need to negotiate with Germany to return their POWs. Ukraine is only going to take its land back, but (in addition to captured resources) it needs the return of the people Russia has kidnapped and sent to the Far East. The best way to achieve that is with a large number of Russian POWs.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Reuters/status/1511632360206442499

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I predict the Bucha Massacre will have a similar effect to the Malmedy Massacre.

During the Battle of the Bulge, the Germans executed some 84 US POWs in a massacre as an attempt to demoralise the US forces in the area. It had the exact opposite result though, only hardening their resolve. The 328th Infantry Regiment had a standing order for the rest of the war: all SS soldiers will be shot on sight. The 11th Armored Division massacred 80 SS soldiers at Chenogne not long after.

I expect several Ukrainian units will now have issued "Take no prisoners" orders in response, and I fully support it. You want to commit war crimes against Ukrainian civilians, don't be too bloody surprised when they stop taking prisoners.

It’s not surprising, and telling Ukrainian soldiers that it’s morally wrong is going to have less of an impact post-Bucha, but it’s still really poor strategy.

The Americans could afford it: they were bent on removing the Nazis from power, and thus would not need to negotiate with Germany to return their POWs. Ukraine is only going to take its land back, but (in addition to captured resources) it needs the return of the people Russia has kidnapped and sent to the Far East. The best way to achieve that is with a large number of Russian POWs.

The biggest problem of all for Ukraine (if it were to adopt a no prisoners policy) is that no prisoners means that they'd inevitably have to kill large numbers of captured Russian soldiers, which is reckless at least because it even leaves open the chance of producing for Putin all the support he needs to replenish his armies from Russia's vast population (three times larger than Ukraine's). If Russians blame Ukraine for Russian soldiers dying, then that helps Putin immensely. Right now, Ukraine enjoys a massive morale gap and mobilization gap; they risk getting rid of both if they go down that path.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

They actually did it.

https://www.twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1511649305089695745

[rc18]

They actually did it.

https://www.twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1511649305089695745

Well, we have this year's Darwin Award winners,

https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1511614133476945920?s=20&t=I7OEQZrCehk39V...

[Middle-aged Europe]

"Battle of Chernobyl" still sounds like a b-movie title from The Asylum to me.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/Juergen_Thiede/status/1511653024778919944

[dead0man]

[Middle-aged Europe]

Germany purchases 140 Heron TP combat drones from Israel.


https://twitter.com/doberah/status/1511672602972110853

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/CanadianUkrain1/status/1511695660604706822

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/AndyVermaut/status/1511667857645473800


https://twitter.com/digitaljournal/status/1511710586169552902


https://twitter.com/JDiamond1/status/1511713101074378757

[Torie]

Surprised we haven't seen a spotting from our resident Atlas NYC Yellow Avatar guru today on market updates.

Comrade Jaichind has not recently posted, but perhaps he or other posters might be able to explain what this means to us "laypeople".

The United States has started blocking Russia from making debt payments using dollars held in American banks, a move designed to deplete its international currency reserves and potentially push Russia toward its first foreign currency debt default in a century.

A Treasury Department spokeswoman said the action was taken on Monday. It was the same day that more than half a billion dollars in Russian sovereign debt payments came due. The new restriction, the spokeswoman said, is intended to force Russia to choose between draining the remaining dollar reserves it has in Russia or using new revenue (from natural gas payments, for example) to make bond payments to avoid defaulting on its debt.

Since Russia invaded Ukraine in late February and sanctions were imposed, the Russian government has kept up its foreign currency debt payments. While it has shown a willingness to pay, it has been able to pay investors using American banks with the approval of the U.S. government. Last month, the Treasury Department created an exemption from its sanctions that allowed Americans to accept debt payments from Russia until May 25 to avoid destabilizing the broader financial system.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/05/business/russia-debt-dollars.html

The Treasury Department on Monday prohibited Russia from withdrawing funds held in American banks to pay its debt obligations, a major escalation aimed at forcing the Kremlin to pick between a catastrophic default and other difficult economic measures.

The Biden administration will separately on Wednesday announce an additional sanctions package that includes a ban on all new investment in Russia, sanctions on Russian banks and state-owned enterprises, and measures targeting Russian officials, according to a person familiar with the matter, speaking on the condition of anonymity to reflect measures not yet announced. These steps are being taken in coordination with the Group of Seven and the European Union.

Until now, the Biden administration had allowed Russia to continue to repurpose the substantial funds it has kept in U.S. financial institutions to make required payments on its sovereign debt. But with two large payments coming due — and amid evidence of mass killings in Bucha, Ukraine — the Treasury Department changed course, blocking the Kremlin from processing payments on the Russian bonds.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/05/russia-ukraine-war-news-zelensky-live-updates/#link-SRP2KIZC6ZHTRAKPSY4GZ2PFYQ

The Biden administration has blocked Russia from using U.S. banks to make good on foreign debt payments, officials said, pitching Moscow closer to its first sovereign default in more than two decades.

All avenues for Moscow to pay aren’t closed and in theory it has plenty of dollars to make the payments. The Treasury spokeswoman said Russia could pay the bonds using its foreign currency reserves or tap proceeds of new revenue. She said the action applied to U.S. financial institutions.

Russia owed foreign investors about $2 billion for one of the bonds, which matured Monday, and another $84 million in interest payments on a second bond. Russia’s National Settlement Depository website showed the Ministry of Finance ordered payment for the $2 billion bond to go through on Monday. The Treasury move effectively blocked the payment.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-administration-stymies-russia-debt-payments-11649184865?st=baatrw24bw9y7vs&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

I don't think that hit is fair to the poster (in a world ever more cruel and cold, at least we can try to be kind to one another here), but the idea is to basically "seize" via freezing/impounding as much of Russia's currency reserves as possible, and apparently there were still some Russian cash trenches left in US banks that were available to use to pay off debt. Why that particular cash pool had not been frozen before along with everything else that weekend immediately after the invasion prior to the banks opening for business on the following Monday, escapes me.


In other news, per the same NYT update, Europe is thinking of closing all its ports to Russian ships. That should have been done some time ago it seems to me. All of those Russian tankers with unsold oil looking for a buyer via clouding the chain of custody should just float around in the middle of the Atlantic somewhere, preferably until they run out of gas.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Foreign banks apparently refused Russian bond payment in rubles.

https://twitter.com/YouGottaVote/status/1511714199118000132




https://twitter.com/hhk/status/1511714232001171463

[GoTfan]

I predict the Bucha Massacre will have a similar effect to the Malmedy Massacre.

During the Battle of the Bulge, the Germans executed some 84 US POWs in a massacre as an attempt to demoralise the US forces in the area. It had the exact opposite result though, only hardening their resolve. The 328th Infantry Regiment had a standing order for the rest of the war: all SS soldiers will be shot on sight. The 11th Armored Division massacred 80 SS soldiers at Chenogne not long after.

I expect several Ukrainian units will now have issued "Take no prisoners" orders in response, and I fully support it. You want to commit war crimes against Ukrainian civilians, don't be too bloody surprised when they stop taking prisoners.

Umm... GoTfan please review the comment bolded, since I doubt honestly and sincerely believe that you don't support Ukrainian massacres of Russian POWs.

No, you're absolutely right, I don't. I'm just ticked off because what the RUssians are doing reminds me a lot of some stories from ancestors of mine in the Second World War who suffered at the hands of Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan.

I fully repudiate that part of the comment. I was speaking from a place of pure outrage.