Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

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https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1494406719836930054

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https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1494406719836930054

Is this poll broken down between Russian speakers and non Russian speakers?

Not that I can see (although I can neither read nor speak Ukrainian!), but it does appear that the responses can be broken down by region. Unsurprisingly, it appears that the highest level of opposition to joining NATO would come from the eastern region of the country. And I assume they couldn't poll Crimea or the separatist-controlled areas of Donbas and Luhansk so you would need to factor that into consideration too.

https://twitter.com/ArgoJournal/status/1494417483712892934

 

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https://twitter.com/GeoffRBennett/status/1494705453934206985

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https://twitter.com/ichbinilya/status/1494783504718217217
https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1494788414205579265


    

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Based on multiple reports, it appears that the areas surrounding the contact line in the Donbas are experiencing the heaviest artillery barrage since 2014/2015. Columns of Russian mechanized units have also been spotted tonight less than five kilometers from the Ukrainian border.

At this point, I am pretty sure some sort of operation is commencing and we'll soon see further Russian incursion into Ukraine. I think the only question at this point is whether it's the full-on assault that could see Kyiv encircled or some sort of limited invasion that seizes Kharkiv, Mariupol', and degrades Ukrainian infrastructure in the interior with air and missile strikes. I don't see what the 'limited' option really does for Putin in the strategic sense. If his goal is regime change, I don't know if that'll cut it.

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Lavrov and Blinken were already scheduled to talk on Thursday, so they're just adding the possibility of a Biden-Putin summit to the agenda. At the moment, this isn't really a game-changer unless/until we see some proof that Russian units are pulling back from their final staging areas*

*Satellite imagery from the past 24-48 hours have pointed towards Russian units decamping from their temporary forward operating bases, with many battalions now spread through fields, farms, and forests not far from the Ukrainian border. I am not a military logistics expert, but I don't know how long mechanized infantry and other equipment can be left in such relatively unsupported conditions before it starts to impact force effectiveness, morale, etc.  

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Lavrov and Blinken were already scheduled to talk on Thursday, so they're just adding the possibility of a Biden-Putin summit to the agenda. At the moment, this isn't really a game-changer unless/until we see some proof that Russian units are pulling back from their final staging areas*

*Satellite imagery from the past 24-48 hours have pointed towards Russian units decamping from their temporary forward operating bases, with many battalions now spread through fields, farms, and forests not far from the Ukrainian border. I am not a military logistics expert, but I don't know how long mechanized infantry and other equipment can be left in such relatively unsupported conditions before it starts to impact force effectiveness, morale, etc.  

One thing I'm kind of curious about and haven't seen covered is that there's a "radiological reserve" or something like that on the Belarusian side of the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone. And while I doubt Putin has any qualms about keeping Russian forces stationed there (or near there) as long as he wants, I kind of wonder if there are any morale, logistical, or even health issues that go with being stationed in an area that's so notoriously unhealthy to be in for long periods of time.

As someone who was on the Ukrainian side of the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone in late 2019, I can personally say that there is little to no usable infrastructure left in the region. I think boredom, in addition to the lack of any supporting facilities for rest and relaxation, would be the main detriment to any medium-term deployment there. That feeling of isolation could certainly have a negative impact over time.

Unless stationed there for more than a couple months, I don't think the risk of radiation poisoning is a substantial factor except for some so-called "hot spots" which are easy enough to call out if you have a Geiger counter. Ukraine has always staffed checkpoints with the zone, but I believe they cycle their people in and out after a certain amount of time deployed there.   

Going through the exclusion zone would probably be the fastest way for Russian troops to get to Kyiv though, so it's worth keeping an eye on. 

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https://twitter.com/JakeCordell/status/1495811034069835787

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https://twitter.com/gkates/status/1495811398768672778

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American planes "went dark" before entering Ukraine. Possible evac mission?

https://twitter.com/OAlexanderDK/status/1495878310810824714

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For what it's worth, I put relatively little stock into the short-and-medium term prognostications of the self-appointed foreign policy pundit class that have been so obviously wrong in predicting the end game of all of this. It is not clear at all that Putin simply stops at a quasi-occupation of the Donbass. Until/unless we start seeing the Russians re-consolidate some of their mechanized units, helicopters, and missile batteries that are presently hiding out in the forests and fields in the Belgorod Oblast and Belarus, I would be wary. That doesn't necessarily mean them returning to their permanent bases, but at least back to their forward operating 'bases' where some of them have been stationed for the better part of the past two months.

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https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1496143838402035712

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https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1496143838402035712

Good! This and the responses by both the US and EU are much more severe than they were in 2014. Especially how fast both sides have reacted. You just can be glad Biden is the president now, as it would not have been possible with the clown the preceded him.

What's also striking is that China has not voiced the usual support for Russia this time around. At the Munich Security Conference, the Chinese foreign minister even said something like an invasion was a violation of international rule (of course, the Chinese regime has an interest not to set any kind of precedent for separatist movements in Western parts of China).

For those wondering how Trump would have responded to this crisis, here is a window into that alternative universe:

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1496221147729481732

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https://twitter.com/KatieBoLillis/status/1496527145325240324

Newsweek reported that US intelligence informed the Ukrainian government that an invasion could occur within the next 48 hours.

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https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1496587959881113600

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https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1496643487395196928

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These performative gestures of solidarity with Ukraine from some places are a bit much, imo. I mean, lighting up the Brandenburg Gate in the Ukrainian colors is nice and all, but I think Ukraine would have more appreciation if Germany hadn't repeatedly blocked the Baltic states from sending German-made weapons to Ukraine.

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https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1496681345837412356

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https://twitter.com/NeilPHauer/status/1496683182334357507

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https://twitter.com/olliecarroll/status/1496702675253182475

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https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1496696591679430656

I would be careful with this account. I saw a tweet from them a bit earlier that Biden and the government officials were being evacuated to underground bunkers/facilities. They seem to tweet out a lot of unverified information.

That said, I wouldn't be surprised if this was the case. The Ukrainian Navy was going to be a non-factor in any war.

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https://twitter.com/PeterAlexander/status/1496706418547871755

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https://twitter.com/KevinRothrock/status/1496710537966723076

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https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1496716534022127618

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https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1496719857735413763