Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Ugh, what an embarrassing climbdown. It looked like it was finally time to stand up to the West and challenge them but didn't even last a week. It pains me to admit it but the Americans pushed us around on this. Now this is something I need to cope over.

China ready to ‘play a role’ in Ukraine ceasefire

China signalled it was ready to play a role in finding a ceasefire in Ukraine as it “deplored” the outbreak of conflict in its strongest comments yet on the war.

Beijing said it was “extremely concerned about the harm to civilians” in comments that came after a phone call between Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi and his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba.

“Ukraine is willing to strengthen communications with China and looks forward to China playing a role in realising a ceasefire,” the Chinese statement said on Tuesday.

It added that it respected “the territorial integrity of all countries”, without indicating whether Beijing accepted Russia’s claim to the Crimean peninsula or shared its recognition of separatists in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine.

Needing to cope about this is mutually exclusive with insisting you don't have a dog in the actual fight, bootlicker.

[It’s so Joever]

If you read carefully through this thread, you can determine why NATO hasn’t directly intervened.

Despite what some “Russia stronk Russian nukes WWIII” posters think, it’s not because NATO is afraid of Russia.

The goal is regime change in Russia, brought about by Putin’s own actions in Ukraine.

As long as NATO doesn’t directly intervene in Ukraine, Putin can’t use it as a rallying cry tO pRoTeCt MoThEr RuSsIa. Because sadly there absolutely are many Russians who would see it that way.

So NATO/EU/the West in general will do everything they can up to the line of direct intervention to aid Ukraine.

I understand this policy; I don’t like how hard it is on the Ukrainians, but at least I grasp the logic.

Yeah, I don't buy this at all. Banking on the Russians overthrowing Putin by themselves is a stretch at best. It could happen, but I absolutely don't see NATO counting on this.

NATO is refraining from defending Ukraine because they are scared of nuclear war and because the Americans aren't really on board with entering into another war in general. I guarantee you that NATO would be totally on board if Joe Biden tomorrow said "let's kick out those damn russians". The rest of NATO is still too weak and too fragmented.

NATO isn’t refraining from defending Ukraine, they are refraining from putting their own troops in because that’s how we’ve figured out how to do things without causing a human extinction event.

Let Russia do whatever genocide they want bcuz Putin said some empty threats that he would be unironically overthrown by his generals for if he tried to act on them.

We are arming the hell out of them and crippling the Russian economy. That’s what we can do.

This isn’t about Putin’s empty threats, this is about the reality that the US and Russia are both capable of wiping out humanity and if they ever fought directly  it would happen.

It’s not a reaction to whatever bullsh**t Putin is seeking, it’s been that way for 70 years, Ivan and Joe start shooting and that’s it for the human race.

Yes, theoretically, but NOBODY and I repeat NOBODY wants that reality and we all are well aware of the concept of MAD.
Y’all act as if the Russian leadership is composed entirely of war automatons who don’t have any children of family and no sense of self preservation. Yes, they are cruel and will do what they see as necessary to expand the Russosphere, but they too know that there is no Russia after a nuclear war. Btw there is a reason older generations are MORE likely to be hawkish on this, and it’s because the Doviets also made empty threats, and we didn’t just bend over backwards. No we shouldn’t directly bomb Russian convoys, but we can and should send some troops to Western Ukraine which will put the ball in Russia’s court.

[Storr]

If you read carefully through this thread, you can determine why NATO hasn’t directly intervened.

Despite what some “Russia stronk Russian nukes WWIII” posters think, it’s not because NATO is afraid of Russia.

The goal is regime change in Russia, brought about by Putin’s own actions in Ukraine.

As long as NATO doesn’t directly intervene in Ukraine, Putin can’t use it as a rallying cry tO pRoTeCt MoThEr RuSsIa. Because sadly there absolutely are many Russians who would see it that way.

So NATO/EU/the West in general will do everything they can up to the line of direct intervention to aid Ukraine.

I understand this policy; I don’t like how hard it is on the Ukrainians, but at least I grasp the logic.

Yeah, I don't buy this at all. Banking on the Russians overthrowing Putin by themselves is a stretch at best. It could happen, but I absolutely don't see NATO counting on this.

NATO is refraining from defending Ukraine because they are scared of nuclear war and because the Americans aren't really on board with entering into another war in general. I guarantee you that NATO would be totally on board if Joe Biden tomorrow said "let's kick out those damn russians". The rest of NATO is still too weak and too fragmented.

NATO isn’t refraining from defending Ukraine, they are refraining from putting their own troops in because that’s how we’ve figured out how to do things without causing a human extinction event.

Let Russia do whatever genocide they want bcuz Putin said some empty threats that he would be unironically overthrown by his generals for if he tried to act on them.

100 percent. What's happening in Kharkiv wouldn't be the case with NATO troops present on the ground. But neither would the devastation of the entire world, because not even Putin or his generals want it, and it's insane to think they would.

Did you guys miss the Cold War?

We aren’t talking about just stationing troops or making a diplomatic move, we are talking about declaring war on Russia. Do you guys not get how Putin threatening nukes because sanctions is an obvious bluff but Russia threatening nuclear retaliation if we start shooting at them is real?

I think Putin referencing using nukes at all is a bluff. He knows that if he used them, the US would be able to retaliate before they even reach the US.

[NOVA Green]

What is likely to be the last update on the EU jets story: https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-promise-to-supply-fighter-jets-to-ukraine-gets-grounded/

The Ukranian army post claiming jets would arrive has been deleted, and Poland has finally confirmed (after some ambiguity from their President) that it’s not happening.

Presumably, the Ukranian transports parked on a Polish airfield are for carrying other supplies or for safekeeping during a conflict they’re not fit for. Perhaps they came anticipating jets that were never guaranteed.

Romania was requested to give jets and refused to comment; the others refused. However, Romania did return the errant Ukranian Su-27 today, and the only other craft they have that Ukrainians could fly is the Yak-52 trainer (which is likely to be less impactful than a purpose-built fighter/bomber) and the MiG-21 (which is increasingly obsolete - outside of testing during refurbishment for other countries’ fleets, Ukraine hasn’t flown many of these for a long time).

Turkey has not responded to Ukraine’s request for more Bayraktars. They had ordered lots more at the start of the invasion proper, but new ones had to be manufactured and faster delivery would require some depletion of Turkish army or training stocks.

No mention of SAMs, but I would expect they’re not getting any of those, either. Expect RuAF supremacy soon, and more unchallenged convoys.

Well, I believe Stingers are still on the US weapons shopping list in terms of SAMs.

fyi... (Just in case folks want some additional links / info)

I did post a couple different links and excerpts from news articles earlier today on both military supplies to Ukraine and EU jets.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=469771.msg8503917#msg8503917

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=469771.msg8503848#msg8503848

[The Free North]

https://twitter.com/sbreakintl/status/1498619309618503680

[Хahar 🤔]

Gonna take this with a grain of salt until it is actually confirmed but if true, HOLY SH!T

https://mobile.twitter.com/OccupyDemocrats/status/1498715490197274624

Oh my gosh if true that’s amazing and a major blow to Russian morale.

I just thought about it. Those National Guard types are completely nuts and probably coated their ammunition and weapons with lard. Sucks for them, I guess.

Hell yeah, I love when the side I'm on engages in anti-Islamic bigotry, this is the good stuff.

[2016]

Ukraine Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba for the 1st Time acknowledged to CNN's Foreign Affairs Correspondent Christiane Amanpour that Russia is now dominating the Sky

Ukrainian air force is targeting Russian columns but Russia dominates the skies, Ukrainian official tells CNN

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told CNN’s Christiane Amanpour on Tuesday that the country’s air force is targeting Russian military columns headed toward Ukrainian cities.

“We are using our air forces to destroy columns headed towards our cities,” he said in a TV interview.  

When asked what further help Ukraine needs from the US and NATO, Kuleba replied “air force and anti-missile defense, and weapons.”

“The problem is Russia dominates in the sky. Our pilots are fighting fiercely against them, but we also have losses. So the Russians use their fighting jets and bombers to attack our cities and we need to counter this threat. This are the two most urgent requests that we lodged with our partners,” he said.
“We are fighting in the air, but physically Russia has more planes to deploy to Ukraine than we have. So that’s why we put such an emphasis on air defense and air force, and also missile defense,” he told Amanpour, adding “we need better protection from the sky.”

Kuleba said he cannot speak specifically about whether Ukraine’s air force is also hitting the 40-mile Russian convoy around Kyiv.

Without any help from the air re Fighter Jets from Poland, Slovakia, etc. this is looking very, very grim!

[Storr]

Interesting take. You'd think a defining battle would be in one of the bigger cities, Kyiv or Kharkiv. But maybe not because the Russians would want to avoid assaulting such dense places due to unavoidable heavy casualties. After all, the decisive battle of the Eastern front ended up being in a fairly obscure city in southern Russia.

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1498743990128152578?s=20&t=HiEzgHsjWrE...

[Silent Hunter]

What is likely to be the last update on the EU jets story: https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-promise-to-supply-fighter-jets-to-ukraine-gets-grounded/

The Ukranian army post claiming jets would arrive has been deleted, and Poland has finally confirmed (after some ambiguity from their President) that it’s not happening.

Presumably, the Ukranian transports parked on a Polish airfield are for carrying other supplies or for safekeeping during a conflict they’re not fit for. Perhaps they came anticipating jets that were never guaranteed.

Romania was requested to give jets and refused to comment; the others refused. However, Romania did return the errant Ukranian Su-27 today, and the only other craft they have that Ukrainians could fly is the Yak-52 trainer (which is likely to be less impactful than a purpose-built fighter/bomber) and the MiG-21 (which is increasingly obsolete - outside of testing during refurbishment for other countries’ fleets, Ukraine hasn’t flown many of these for a long time).

Turkey has not responded to Ukraine’s request for more Bayraktars. They had ordered lots more at the start of the invasion proper, but new ones had to be manufactured and faster delivery would require some depletion of Turkish army or training stocks.

No mention of SAMs, but I would expect they’re not getting any of those, either. Expect RuAF supremacy soon, and more unchallenged convoys.

Remember Russia is also depleting its stocks.

[compucomp]

Ugh, what an embarrassing climbdown. It looked like it was finally time to stand up to the West and challenge them but didn't even last a week. It pains me to admit it but the Americans pushed us around on this. Now this is something I need to cope over.

China ready to ‘play a role’ in Ukraine ceasefire

China signalled it was ready to play a role in finding a ceasefire in Ukraine as it “deplored” the outbreak of conflict in its strongest comments yet on the war.

Beijing said it was “extremely concerned about the harm to civilians” in comments that came after a phone call between Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi and his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba.

“Ukraine is willing to strengthen communications with China and looks forward to China playing a role in realising a ceasefire,” the Chinese statement said on Tuesday.

It added that it respected “the territorial integrity of all countries”, without indicating whether Beijing accepted Russia’s claim to the Crimean peninsula or shared its recognition of separatists in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine.

Needing to cope about this is mutually exclusive with insisting you don't have a dog in the actual fight, bootlicker.

I definitely have skin in the part of the game where China is involved. The people at the Foreign Ministry know more than me, they're the experts, so I defer to them, but damn it looks a lot like we took an L here and let the Americans push us around.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

What is likely to be the last update on the EU jets story: https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-promise-to-supply-fighter-jets-to-ukraine-gets-grounded/

The Ukranian army post claiming jets would arrive has been deleted, and Poland has finally confirmed (after some ambiguity from their President) that it’s not happening.

Presumably, the Ukranian transports parked on a Polish airfield are for carrying other supplies or for safekeeping during a conflict they’re not fit for. Perhaps they came anticipating jets that were never guaranteed.

Romania was requested to give jets and refused to comment; the others refused. However, Romania did return the errant Ukranian Su-27 today, and the only other craft they have that Ukrainians could fly is the Yak-52 trainer (which is likely to be less impactful than a purpose-built fighter/bomber) and the MiG-21 (which is increasingly obsolete - outside of testing during refurbishment for other countries’ fleets, Ukraine hasn’t flown many of these for a long time).

Turkey has not responded to Ukraine’s request for more Bayraktars. They had ordered lots more at the start of the invasion proper, but new ones had to be manufactured and faster delivery would require some depletion of Turkish army or training stocks.

No mention of SAMs, but I would expect they’re not getting any of those, either. Expect RuAF supremacy soon, and more unchallenged convoys.

Well, I believe Stingers are still on the US weapons shopping list in terms of SAMs.

fyi... (Just in case folks want some additional links / info)

I did post a couple different links and excerpts from news articles earlier today on both military supplies to Ukraine and EU jets.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=469771.msg8503917#msg8503917

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=469771.msg8503848#msg8503848

I considered posting the first of those, but at the time, the Polish President’s statement was slightly ambiguous: it could be interpreted to permit the transfer (by land) of formerly Polish planes donated to Ukraine. The Polish PM only ruled this out recently.

Stingers do have surface-to-air missiles,, but they rely on MANPADS systems, which means they have a short range so can’t do much about aircraft above 5km (most warplanes, as opposed to helicopters). The bigger systems that Ukraine uses for long-range air defence are ex-Soviet and Russian, and there are a fair few of these slowly being phased out in Eastern bloc countries.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Ugh, what an embarrassing climbdown. It looked like it was finally time to stand up to the West and challenge them but didn't even last a week. It pains me to admit it but the Americans pushed us around on this. Now this is something I need to cope over.

China ready to ‘play a role’ in Ukraine ceasefire

China signalled it was ready to play a role in finding a ceasefire in Ukraine as it “deplored” the outbreak of conflict in its strongest comments yet on the war.

Beijing said it was “extremely concerned about the harm to civilians” in comments that came after a phone call between Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi and his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba.

“Ukraine is willing to strengthen communications with China and looks forward to China playing a role in realising a ceasefire,” the Chinese statement said on Tuesday.

It added that it respected “the territorial integrity of all countries”, without indicating whether Beijing accepted Russia’s claim to the Crimean peninsula or shared its recognition of separatists in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine.

Needing to cope about this is mutually exclusive with insisting you don't have a dog in the actual fight, bootlicker.

I definitely have skin in the part of the game where China is involved. The people at the Foreign Ministry know more than me, they're the experts, so I defer to them, but damn it looks a lot like we took an L here and let the Americans push us around.

Why do you live in a country you hate so much . Go move to China or Russia if you think it’s so much better

[It’s so Joever]

What is likely to be the last update on the EU jets story: https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-promise-to-supply-fighter-jets-to-ukraine-gets-grounded/

The Ukranian army post claiming jets would arrive has been deleted, and Poland has finally confirmed (after some ambiguity from their President) that it’s not happening.

Presumably, the Ukranian transports parked on a Polish airfield are for carrying other supplies or for safekeeping during a conflict they’re not fit for. Perhaps they came anticipating jets that were never guaranteed.

Romania was requested to give jets and refused to comment; the others refused. However, Romania did return the errant Ukranian Su-27 today, and the only other craft they have that Ukrainians could fly is the Yak-52 trainer (which is likely to be less impactful than a purpose-built fighter/bomber) and the MiG-21 (which is increasingly obsolete - outside of testing during refurbishment for other countries’ fleets, Ukraine hasn’t flown many of these for a long time).

Turkey has not responded to Ukraine’s request for more Bayraktars. They had ordered lots more at the start of the invasion proper, but new ones had to be manufactured and faster delivery would require some depletion of Turkish army or training stocks.

No mention of SAMs, but I would expect they’re not getting any of those, either. Expect RuAF supremacy soon, and more unchallenged convoys.

…the West is a joke at this point, including the supposed “anti-Russian” Eastern Europeans who don’t support Ukraine when push comes to shove.
I know how everyone feels about dooming so I won’t, but just understand this may not be the long term victory conventional wisdom suggests.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/sbreakintl/status/1498619309618503680

Extremely good thread. It's a long read (for twitter, anyway), but gives insight into the difficulties the Russians are facing, directly from the troops in the field.

[WMS]

One thing NATO could do is airdrop food, water, other civilian supplies, etc, to Ukrainians in need in besieged cities a la the Berlin Airlift. It would be 100% legal, wouldn’t be “attacking Russia” at all, would be a humanitarian mission, would help the Ukrainians under siege, and gives absolutely no grounds for Russia to object. For all those who would respond with OMG RUSSIANS, if the Russians do anything hostile towards this action they are responsible for initiating hostilities.

Also, if Josef F***ing Stalin wasn’t willing to wage WWIII over humanitarian aerial aid, why do you think Vladimir Putin would be?

jao

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Ugh, what an embarrassing climbdown. It looked like it was finally time to stand up to the West and challenge them but didn't even last a week. It pains me to admit it but the Americans pushed us around on this. Now this is something I need to cope over.

China ready to ‘play a role’ in Ukraine ceasefire

China signalled it was ready to play a role in finding a ceasefire in Ukraine as it “deplored” the outbreak of conflict in its strongest comments yet on the war.

Beijing said it was “extremely concerned about the harm to civilians” in comments that came after a phone call between Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi and his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba.

“Ukraine is willing to strengthen communications with China and looks forward to China playing a role in realising a ceasefire,” the Chinese statement said on Tuesday.

It added that it respected “the territorial integrity of all countries”, without indicating whether Beijing accepted Russia’s claim to the Crimean peninsula or shared its recognition of separatists in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine.

Needing to cope about this is mutually exclusive with insisting you don't have a dog in the actual fight, bootlicker.

I definitely have skin in the part of the game where China is involved. The people at the Foreign Ministry know more than me, they're the experts, so I defer to them, but damn it looks a lot like we took an L here and let the Americans push us around.

You ought to have skin in the part of the game where human rights and the rule of law are involved too.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

What is likely to be the last update on the EU jets story: https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-promise-to-supply-fighter-jets-to-ukraine-gets-grounded/

The Ukranian army post claiming jets would arrive has been deleted, and Poland has finally confirmed (after some ambiguity from their President) that it’s not happening.

Presumably, the Ukranian transports parked on a Polish airfield are for carrying other supplies or for safekeeping during a conflict they’re not fit for. Perhaps they came anticipating jets that were never guaranteed.

Romania was requested to give jets and refused to comment; the others refused. However, Romania did return the errant Ukranian Su-27 today, and the only other craft they have that Ukrainians could fly is the Yak-52 trainer (which is likely to be less impactful than a purpose-built fighter/bomber) and the MiG-21 (which is increasingly obsolete - outside of testing during refurbishment for other countries’ fleets, Ukraine hasn’t flown many of these for a long time).

Turkey has not responded to Ukraine’s request for more Bayraktars. They had ordered lots more at the start of the invasion proper, but new ones had to be manufactured and faster delivery would require some depletion of Turkish army or training stocks.

No mention of SAMs, but I would expect they’re not getting any of those, either. Expect RuAF supremacy soon, and more unchallenged convoys.

Remember Russia is also depleting its stocks.

Tracking the confirmed losses so far, it seems they’ve lost fewer planes than Ukraine from a stock several orders of magnitude larger (SAMs are a slightly different case - Russia may have lost more, but their stocks are still more impressive than Ukraine’s by some margin).

The respective states of the airforces and the damage done to them are not really comparable, unless Russia starts running out of jet fuel (there’s no indication this will happen but their ground forces’ logistics were bad enough for it to happen to their vehicles pretty early).

[Silent Hunter]

I was more talking about their missiles, especially long-range stuff.

[WMS]

Gonna take this with a grain of salt until it is actually confirmed but if true, HOLY SH!T

https://mobile.twitter.com/OccupyDemocrats/status/1498715490197274624

Oh my gosh if true that’s amazing and a major blow to Russian morale.

I just thought about it. Those National Guard types are completely nuts and probably coated their ammunition and weapons with lard. Sucks for them, I guess.

Hell yeah, I love when the side I'm on engages in anti-Islamic bigotry, this is the good stuff.

Evil vs evil, perhaps? Not a shred of sympathy for Kadyrov’s bloodthirsty brutes.* Which doesn’t make this right, but sending these two groups at each other is a win-win.

*Who have committed most of their vile crimes against other Muslims, BTW.

[Logical]

Most important thing here isn't the maps but the date these orders were issued, February 22nd. Russian field commanders had less than 48 hours to familiarize themselves, form a plan and implement their orders from high command. No wonder they get confused!
https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1498645040989626371?t=LEhHRAdhZu7xC95d-Qwv...

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

What is likely to be the last update on the EU jets story: https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-promise-to-supply-fighter-jets-to-ukraine-gets-grounded/

The Ukranian army post claiming jets would arrive has been deleted, and Poland has finally confirmed (after some ambiguity from their President) that it’s not happening.

Presumably, the Ukranian transports parked on a Polish airfield are for carrying other supplies or for safekeeping during a conflict they’re not fit for. Perhaps they came anticipating jets that were never guaranteed.

Romania was requested to give jets and refused to comment; the others refused. However, Romania did return the errant Ukranian Su-27 today, and the only other craft they have that Ukrainians could fly is the Yak-52 trainer (which is likely to be less impactful than a purpose-built fighter/bomber) and the MiG-21 (which is increasingly obsolete - outside of testing during refurbishment for other countries’ fleets, Ukraine hasn’t flown many of these for a long time).

Turkey has not responded to Ukraine’s request for more Bayraktars. They had ordered lots more at the start of the invasion proper, but new ones had to be manufactured and faster delivery would require some depletion of Turkish army or training stocks.

No mention of SAMs, but I would expect they’re not getting any of those, either. Expect RuAF supremacy soon, and more unchallenged convoys.

Cowards

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

With all the dismal stories ping-ponging on both sides, it feels like the result of the conflict has pretty much whittled down to;

"What gives out first, Ukrainian structural integrity or Russian morale & equipment?"

[Storr]

Ukrainians looted and then destroyed a modern Russian Pantsir surface to air missile system that literally got stuck in the mud: https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1498746285389758469?s=20&t=HiEzgHsjWrE...

According to wikipedia that's about $14 million (or 1.542 billion rubles) down the drain.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Nord Stream is deader than disco.


https://mobile.twitter.com/maria_shagina/status/1498673016552796166


Incredible how much money was shoveled into that financial grave.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Ugh, what an embarrassing climbdown. It looked like it was finally time to stand up to the West and challenge them but didn't even last a week. It pains me to admit it but the Americans pushed us around on this. Now this is something I need to cope over.

China ready to ‘play a role’ in Ukraine ceasefire

China signalled it was ready to play a role in finding a ceasefire in Ukraine as it “deplored” the outbreak of conflict in its strongest comments yet on the war.

Beijing said it was “extremely concerned about the harm to civilians” in comments that came after a phone call between Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi and his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba.

“Ukraine is willing to strengthen communications with China and looks forward to China playing a role in realising a ceasefire,” the Chinese statement said on Tuesday.

It added that it respected “the territorial integrity of all countries”, without indicating whether Beijing accepted Russia’s claim to the Crimean peninsula or shared its recognition of separatists in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine.

Needing to cope about this is mutually exclusive with insisting you don't have a dog in the actual fight, bootlicker.

I definitely have skin in the part of the game where China is involved. The people at the Foreign Ministry know more than me, they're the experts, so I defer to them, but damn it looks a lot like we took an L here and let the Americans push us around.

So OT, but what do nationalist sh**theads think ‘challenging the West’ is supposed to do? Oh wow you proved China Stronk and daddy Xi is biggest man ever. Other than a sense of racial superiority, what did that buy you?