Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Gonna take this with a grain of salt until it is actually confirmed but if true, HOLY SH!T

https://mobile.twitter.com/OccupyDemocrats/status/1498715490197274624

Oh my gosh if true that’s amazing and a major blow to Russian morale.

I just thought about it. Those National Guard types are completely nuts and probably coated their ammunition and weapons with lard. Sucks for them, I guess.

Hell yeah, I love when the side I'm on engages in anti-Islamic bigotry, this is the good stuff.

Evil vs evil, perhaps? Not a shred of sympathy for Kadyrov’s bloodthirsty brutes.* Which doesn’t make this right, but sending these two groups at each other is a win-win.

*Who have committed most of their vile crimes against other Muslims, BTW.

This war is creating an impression that's definitely false that Ukrainian nationalism is civic and liberal in character. It's not, at least not inherently; Zelensky is actively developing it in that direction, which is one of his most important symbolic contributions right now, but it has historically had deeply unsavory ethnic and religious components. Bogdan Khmelnytsky, possibly the most successful antisemitic genocidaire in history prior to the twentieth century, still has a whole oblast named after him. Part of why Ukraine is so worthy of support in this war is precisely that the war's cultural and historical dynamics are pushing Ukrainian nationalism towards a more civic framework.

[Хahar 🤔]

Gonna take this with a grain of salt until it is actually confirmed but if true, HOLY SH!T

https://mobile.twitter.com/OccupyDemocrats/status/1498715490197274624

Oh my gosh if true that’s amazing and a major blow to Russian morale.

I just thought about it. Those National Guard types are completely nuts and probably coated their ammunition and weapons with lard. Sucks for them, I guess.

Hell yeah, I love when the side I'm on engages in anti-Islamic bigotry, this is the good stuff.

Evil vs evil, perhaps? Not a shred of sympathy for Kadyrov’s bloodthirsty brutes.* Which doesn’t make this right, but sending these two groups at each other is a win-win.

*Who have committed most of their vile crimes against other Muslims, BTW.

Right, from a broad picture it's clear which side is in the right here and it's just as clear that Ramzan Kadyrov's men are by and large not exactly paragons of decency. But someone sitting at their computer half the world away can easily lose sight of any moral compass, even though our innate sense of morality is the reason we've all taken the side we've taken.

It doesn't reflect well on keyboard warriors to cheerlead bigotry or spew racism toward Chechens (both of which have happened in this thread) or glory in death and destruction. The subject of this thread is a horrible thing, and while it might be pointless to try to get people here to treat it with the gravity it warrants, I'd like to call it out when it gets egregious.

[Lourdes]

https://twitter.com/Matthew_Kupfer/status/1498312634323677184

[Storr]

The dude recording the video is so excited.

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1498752483706945540?s=20&t=HiEzgHsjWrE...

[Aurelius]

Who needs logistics and supply lines when you can simply loot the cities you invade?

https://twitter.com/expatua/status/1498668193749118977?s=20&t=9ZC0NkLLiB_eGZ...

To be fair this was part of Sherman's March to the Sea too, but in that case it was a deliberate part of the strategy and he communicated it to his troops beforehand.

And unlike Russia, the Union was doing it in service of a deeply moral cause, and only resorted to such tactics after years of conventional warfare had failed to break the back of the Confederacy.

[TheReckoning]

Also, it's clear that China got it right when it decided to ring-fence its internet, bar Western internet and social media companies that wouldn't meet its requirements, which turned out to be all of them, and develop domestic alternatives. Facebook and Twitter are turning out to be huge national security nightmares for Russia as they are clearly intervening on behalf of the Ukrainians and banning them now could cause backlash as there may not be an alternative (maybe Telegram?) and Russians are used to using them. China would not face this issue at all. Yes it's annoying to use the internet in China particularly to browse foreign websites but national security is more important than my convenience.

You are a pathetic excuse of a human who is desirous of oppression, we know this.

Preferring authoritarianism to libertarianism is a valid position to take.

[It’s so Joever]

New update on the northern front, the Ukrainians have pushed back the Russians from Makariv. Meanwhile, the Bobrovytsia pocket has been connected to the rest of the northern Russian forces.

[President Johnson]

So Putin apparently insists on his maximal demands? I really don't see a solution as long as this guy is in power.

[Person Man]

So Putin apparently insists on his maximal demands? I really don't see a solution as long as this guy is in power.

As long as it takes...

[KaiserDave]

Also, it's clear that China got it right when it decided to ring-fence its internet, bar Western internet and social media companies that wouldn't meet its requirements, which turned out to be all of them, and develop domestic alternatives. Facebook and Twitter are turning out to be huge national security nightmares for Russia as they are clearly intervening on behalf of the Ukrainians and banning them now could cause backlash as there may not be an alternative (maybe Telegram?) and Russians are used to using them. China would not face this issue at all. Yes it's annoying to use the internet in China particularly to browse foreign websites but national security is more important than my convenience.

You are a pathetic excuse of a human who is desirous of oppression, we know this.

Preferring authoritarianism to libertarianism is a valid position to take.

I don't care

[NOVA Green]

Okay, this might be an unfortunate side effect in terms of cultural exchange and support for the Russian Anti War Movement, although perhaps this might free up fans time to go out to demonstrations instead

Green Day are cancelling their tour of Russia along with other artists.

(Excerpt from longer article. Click link below for full report)

"Green Day among musicians to cancel Russian tour dates over Ukraine invasion

By Sonia Rao2:55 p.m.

A growing number of musical acts have canceled their tour dates in Russia over the country’s invasion of Ukraine.

Green Day canceled an upcoming show in Moscow earlier this week, writing Sunday in an Instagram story, “We are aware that this moment is not about stadium rock shows, it’s much bigger than that. But we also know that rock and roll is forever and we feel confident there will be a time and a place for us to return in the future.”

The band was soon joined by Louis Tomlinson and the Killers, the latter of which pulled out of the Park Live festival set to be held in Moscow this summer, according to a representative. Tomlinson, known for performing as part of One Direction, tweeted Monday that his concerts in Moscow and Kyiv would be canceled “until further notice.”

“The safety of my fans is my priority,” the English singer wrote in a statement, “and my thoughts go out to the people of Ukraine and all those suffering from this needless war.”

....

"


https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/01/russia-ukraine-war-putin-news/#link-VCPHMM2TGZHKJDR7XVEM3VYICU

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/PinkNews/status/1498420747752157189

[NOVA Green]

Russia is now being distanced by even some of its strongest allies in Latin America per NYT report from a few minutes back.

Lots more but limited in quoting ability.

(Click on link below for full article)

"Some of Putin’s staunchest allies in Latin America are distancing themselves from Russia.

Russia’s Latin American allies have distanced themselves from President Vladimir V. Putin’s war in Ukraine, underscoring how even his staunchest diplomatic supporters appear concerned about the consequences of the cataclysmic invasion of a neighbor.

The governments of Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela have all blamed the United States and NATO for stoking tensions in Ukraine and disregarding Russia’s security interests. But none has yet voiced direct support for Russia’s incursion.

Cuba, Bolivia and Venezuela, in official statements, have called for a diplomatic resolution to the crisis. Bolivia’s former president, Evo Morales, who continues to play an important role in his country’s pro-Russian government, tweeted after the fighting began last Thursday, “War is never the solution.”

Similarly cautious diplomatic stances were taken by President Nicolás Maduro of Venezuela and his Nicaraguan counterpart, Daniel Ortega, both of whom spoke to Mr. Putin by telephone in the days before the invasion.

....

President Jair Bolsonaro visited Moscow just days before the invasion, and said Brazil stood in “solidarity” with Russia, though he didn’t clarify what that meant.

But in a news conference on Sunday, Mr. Bolsonaro said Brazil must remain neutral in the conflict because of the potential economic fallout, including Brazil’s dependence on Russia for fertilizers.

..."





https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/01/world/ukraine-russia-war/some-of-putins-staunchest-allies-in-latin-america-are-distancing-themselves-from-russia

[President Johnson]

Nord Stream is deader than disco.


https://mobile.twitter.com/maria_shagina/status/1498673016552796166


Incredible how much money was shoveled into that financial grave.

It's beyond embarrassing how Schröder is conducting himself here. An embarrassment for Germany and for the Social Democratic Party. And I'm saying this as someone who always approved his chancellorship.

[Mike88]

So Putin apparently insists on his maximal demands? I really don't see a solution as long as this guy is in power.

He's going full "mad man strategy".

[It’s so Joever]

The ONLY way you combat the madman strategy is to play it yourself.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It doesn't reflect well on keyboard warriors to cheerlead bigotry or spew racism toward Chechens (both of which have happened in this thread)...

It's worth noting at this point that there are Chechens fighting in this war for the other side as well. The trouble with Kadyrov's goons being that they're a pack of despicable brigands, rather than that they are Chechen or nominally Muslim. After all, most of the time they people they terrorize, are, well, Chechens.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Okay, this might be an unfortunate side effect in terms of cultural exchange and support for the Russian Anti War Movement, although perhaps this might free up fans time to go out to demonstrations instead

Green Day are cancelling their tour of Russia along with other artists.

(Excerpt from longer article. Click link below for full report)

"Green Day among musicians to cancel Russian tour dates over Ukraine invasion

By Sonia Rao2:55 p.m.

A growing number of musical acts have canceled their tour dates in Russia over the country’s invasion of Ukraine.

Green Day canceled an upcoming show in Moscow earlier this week, writing Sunday in an Instagram story, “We are aware that this moment is not about stadium rock shows, it’s much bigger than that. But we also know that rock and roll is forever and we feel confident there will be a time and a place for us to return in the future.”

The band was soon joined by Louis Tomlinson and the Killers, the latter of which pulled out of the Park Live festival set to be held in Moscow this summer, according to a representative. Tomlinson, known for performing as part of One Direction, tweeted Monday that his concerts in Moscow and Kyiv would be canceled “until further notice.”

“The safety of my fans is my priority,” the English singer wrote in a statement, “and my thoughts go out to the people of Ukraine and all those suffering from this needless war.”

....

"


https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/01/russia-ukraine-war-putin-news/#link-VCPHMM2TGZHKJDR7XVEM3VYICU

Are we still even allowing business travel to Russia?
Why?

[Mike88]

The ONLY way you combat the madman strategy is to play it yourself.

I'm afraid that, sooner or later, the West will be forced to intervene in Ukraine as it could submerge in a civil war if Russia succeeds in capturing Kyiv by massive bombardments and killings.

It's beyond embarrassing how Schröder is conducting himself here. An embarrassment for Germany and for the Social Democratic Party. And I'm saying this as someone who always approved his chancellorship.

Is there any discussion, in Germany of course, regarding Merkel's legacy on Nord Stream 2?

[NOVA Green]

Some more information about the composition of the large Russian convoy NW of Kiev from a few minutes ago per the NYT:

(Click link at bottom for full article, pay if needed, etc...)


" Analysts say Russian convoy likely signals a shift to invasion strategy.

It has been a menacing presence in the war in Ukraine: Satellite images have shown a military convoy stretching 40 miles long on a roadway north of Kyiv, with a number of homes and buildings seen burning nearby.

Experts fear the convoy, which includes supply and armored attack vehicles, could be used to encircle and cut off the capital or to launch a full-on assault. The front end of the convoy is just 20 miles from the capital.

....

So what do we know about this convoy? Cloud cover has made it difficult to get a continuous or complete view of the area or a clear sense of the convoy’s movement. It was not clear whether the buildings and homes seen burning had been attacked.

....

It includes food supply trucks for soldiers and fuel for vehicles, but the bulk of it, in Mr. Boulègue’s assessment, is made up of miles upon miles of heavy artillery.

The convoy is not one continuous line. Some vehicles are spaced far apart from one another, while in some sections two or three military vehicles are moving alongside each other across the road.

Mr. Kagan said it was notable that the convoy was not made up entirely of attack vehicles.

A Pentagon official said on Tuesday that Russian forces had been plagued by shortages of fuel, food and spare parts. Mr. Kagan said a number of trucks in the column likely contained such essential  supplies to avoid more logistical problems.

Mr. Kagan observed that when Russia initially concentrated its forces, in particular on the Belarusian border ahead of its advance, it didn’t appear to have built up the kind of logistical base usually mobilized before an attack was launched. That, he said, helped to explain why Russia’s incursion had failed to quickly capture the capital.

..."


https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/01/world/europe/russian-convoy-ukraine.html

[Bismarck]

Would the fall of Kiev be the end of the conventional war or do we anticipate continued conventional resistance in the west?

[MaxQue]

Would the fall of Kiev be the end of the conventional war or do we anticipate continued conventional resistance in the west?

The west is both the most anti-Russian part of the country and it is quite more hilly (even mountains in the far west). I would assume they would resist there, as it would be easier to defend.

[Bootes Void]

Would the fall of Kiev be the end of the conventional war or do we anticipate continued conventional resistance in the west?

It will depends on whether the capitol will from Kiev to somewhere more inland when you think the invading force will take over the capitol like when Tours became the French capitol for a bit when it was clear that Paris would fall to the Germans in 1941. So this wouldn’t necessarily be the end of conventional war

[NOVA Green]

Another article about how crypto currencies could help bail Putin out (UK Guardian):

Much longer article than just the snippet quoted below.

(Link at bottom--- free website but they'll take donations).

"Could Putin be exploring cryptocurrencies to bypass western sanctions?


As many people do when discussing the complex world of cryptocurrencies, Vladimir Putin kept it simple: “Of course, we also have certain competitive advantages here, especially in the so-called mining.” After events this weekend, when Russia was hit by severe financial sanctions, the Russian president might be considering capitalising on those advantages.

Putin was speaking in January, days after the country’s central bank proposed a blanket ban on cryptocurrency trading and mining. In the case of bitcoin, the cornerstone cryptocurrency, mining is the energy-intensive process by which computers verify new bitcoin transactions – putting them on a virtual ledger known as a blockchain – and generate new bitcoins as a reward for that work.

The Bank of Russia was emphatic in its warning, saying that cryptocurrency mining entailed “significant risks for the economy and financial stability.”. One week later, Putin appeared to be less sure, pointing that Russia had advantages in cryptocurrency mining due to its huge energy wealth and expertise in the field.

Putin’s doubts about a full crypto-embargo might well have deepened after the west applied massive pressure to Russia’s financial system with new sanctions. The EU, US, UK and Canada have targeted the country’s $640bn (£478bn) in foreign currency reserves – a financial buffer held as a back-up to deal with emergencies and provide financial stability – by agreeing to “prevent the Russian central bank from deploying its international reserves in ways that undermine the impact of our sanctions”.

...

Russia and its banks could be looking at cryptocurrencies more closely because they could represent an alternative medium of international exchange to the dollar. Cryptocurrencies could also bypass the international banking system that is key to enforcing sanctions as a listening post for financial transactions worldwide (a characteristic of cryptocurrencies that watchdogs and central banks dislike), by offering an alternative way to make irreversible cross-border transactions.

“We’re at a watershed moment in global history where central banks of nation-states are no longer in direct control of the financial instruments once used to impose global regulations. With cryptocurrency in its infancy, these decentralised currencies lack the agency and infrastructure needed for the ability to regulate institutions as large as Russia,” says Eric Michaud, co-founder of Off The Chain, a blockchain security conference.

...)

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/mar/01/could-putin-be-exploring-cryptocurrencies-to-bypass-western-sanctions-russia-ukraine-invasion

[Dereich]

Would the fall of Kiev be the end of the conventional war or do we anticipate continued conventional resistance in the west?

I think it was the Russian expectation right from the start that the Ukrainian military would collapse once Kyiv fell but with how things have developed that doesn't seem as likely as it did a week ago. I don't think anyone can say at this point.