Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Westerners who pathetically cry for peace always put the burden of seeking peace on Ukraine and the US but never Russia. I wonder why......

Well for one thing Zelensky signed a decree formally announcing the "impossible" prospect of peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

https://www.livemint.com/news/world/ukraine-zelensky-signs-decree-rule-out-negotiation-russia-vladimir-putin-impossible-11664876727245.html

It seems if there going to be a negotiated settlement then one side ruling out talks pretty much makes that difficult to take place.

Well, Putin just recently said that we would not negotiate over Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk. To be honest, Putin making that claim shows far more stubbornness than anything Zelenskyy has said. Ukraine, cannot, under any circumstances accept the loss of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. One can make the (false) argument for the Donbas and Crimea, but it is insane to suggest that Ukraine ever renounce their claim to the two southern oblasts.

But is Russia making Ukraine accepting Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk as Russian territories a prerequisite for talks versus that is their current position?  It seems Ukraine is making Putin being gone a prerequisite for talks.  I am not saying that Ukraine is or is not justified in its position but I am merely making the narrow point that if anyone wants talks as early as possible to try to end this war they are better off pressuring Ukraine than Russia to drop their prerequisites.  If is up to Ukraine to heed that pressure or not of course.

Ukraine's setting the bar for talks high may be seen as something of a gamble, or maybe not. It's based on very strong confidence in their ability to continue pushing back the Russians. That seems reasonable in the wake of Russian defeats that I long expected. Of course, if things reverse, then Ukraine might find itself with difficult options.

Everything I've seen, when put together, suggests that Ukraine's hard line here makes sense in context. At the same time, what you say is true - if you want this war to end sooner and that's literally the only thing that goes into the equation, it actually makes sense to put more pressure on Ukraine. Problem with that approach might be, to use a Chinese civil war analogy - is that it would be akin to the US cutting off support for the Nationalists to pressure them to get to the table in the 1940s (a decision that probably harmed US interests in the long run).

[jaichind]

https://www.thelocal.de/20221005/german-minister-accuses-gas-supplying-countries-of-ripoff-prices/

"German minister accuses gas-supplying countries of ripoff prices"

Habeck now accuses the USA of price gouging.  Sounds like Biden complaining about gas prices back in the Summer.  No.  It is not price gouging.  It s a function of supply and demand.

[jaichind]

 
Ukraine's setting the bar for talks high may be seen as something of a gamble, or maybe not. It's based on very strong confidence in their ability to continue pushing back the Russians. That seems reasonable in the wake of Russian defeats that I long expected. Of course, if things reverse, then Ukraine might find itself with difficult options.

Everything I've seen, when put together, suggests that Ukraine's hard line here makes sense in context. At the same time, what you say is true - if you want this war to end sooner and that's literally the only thing that goes into the equation, it actually makes sense to put more pressure on Ukraine. Problem with that approach might be, to use a Chinese civil war analogy - is that it would be akin to the US cutting off support for the Nationalists to pressure them to get to the table in the 1940s (a decision that probably harmed US interests in the long run).

I think it is mostly about signaling to his population and allies that he is all in and there is no retreat.  Putin did the same by annexing the 4 oblasts.  In a long-term attritional war making the case to your own side about the war existential is critical to ensure cohesion and sacrifice. 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

 
Ukraine's setting the bar for talks high may be seen as something of a gamble, or maybe not. It's based on very strong confidence in their ability to continue pushing back the Russians. That seems reasonable in the wake of Russian defeats that I long expected. Of course, if things reverse, then Ukraine might find itself with difficult options.

Everything I've seen, when put together, suggests that Ukraine's hard line here makes sense in context. At the same time, what you say is true - if you want this war to end sooner and that's literally the only thing that goes into the equation, it actually makes sense to put more pressure on Ukraine. Problem with that approach might be, to use a Chinese civil war analogy - is that it would be akin to the US cutting off support for the Nationalists to pressure them to get to the table in the 1940s (a decision that probably harmed US interests in the long run).

I think it is mostly about signaling to his population and allies that he is all in and there is no retreat.  Putin did the same by annexing the 4 oblasts.  In a long-term attritional war making the case to your own side about the war existential is critical to ensure cohesion and sacrifice. 

That kind of thinking does make sense for winning one's objectives. And that's especially true in a conflict with this kind of quality.

In the end, neither side is prioritizing bringing the war to an end as soon as humanly possible; they are prioritizing shaping whatever the world will look like when the war actually ends in their favor.

Particularly in Ukraine, it would be a big hazard for Zelensky if he just laid down his arms and acted weak, especially with the war has developed. His public image would never recover and he doubtless does not want to see his country lose land like this, on a personal level. He wants those eastern portions back in the fold. Additionally, Russia going forward with annexations only amplifies the number of things that have been said and would have to be taken back and that does represent a unique step in this conflict. (Yes, these lands were annexed by Russia in the 1700s, but that was an entity that had Ukrainians in its umbrella.)

An argument could be made that the wars of Justinian in taking Italy killed the spirit of Rome; and one could likewise say that the wars of Putin killed the spirit of the Soviet Union.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1577617759114084355?s=20&t=SeOC9U...

[Omega21]

An Ukrainian airborne unit alleges that their commander gave them gruesome orders to "clean up" villages, and that civilians too are valid targets and are not to be spared.

Being the based boys they are, they of course refused.

I know most people here will automatically assume RU psyop, but I find that unlikely, as the video will be geolocated soon, and all of them clearly show their faces.

https://twitter.com/AZmilitary1/status/1577638499527925761

[Middle-aged Europe]

An Ukrainian airborne unit alleges that their commander gave them gruesome orders to "clean up" villages, and that civilians too are valid and are not to be spared.

Being the based boys they are, they of course refused.

I know most people here will automatically assume RU psyop, but I find that unlikely, as the video will be geolocated soon, and all of them clearly show their faces.

https://twitter.com/AZmilitary1/status/1577638499527925761

Thanks for the both-sideism.

I guess it's the job of Ukrainian military justice to process this.

Generally speaking, I have bigger faith in Ukrainian military justice than I do in Russian military justice - given that the entire unit apparently felt safe enough to come forward about this on Twitter, I feel that this faith is justified. I don't believe that such public whistle-blowing is possible on the Russian side.

I wouldn't rule out that the entire video is Russian propaganda either, but I was willing to give it the benefit of a doubt.

[Omega21]

An Ukrainian airborne unit alleges that their commander gave them gruesome orders to "clean up" villages, and that civilians too are valid and are not to be spared.

Being the based boys they are, they of course refused.

I know most people here will automatically assume RU psyop, but I find that unlikely, as the video will be geolocated soon, and all of them clearly show their faces.

https://twitter.com/AZmilitary1/status/1577638499527925761

Thanks for the both-sideism.

I guess it's the job of Ukrainian military justice to process this.

Generally speaking, I have bigger faith in Ukrainian military justice than I do in Russian military justice - given that the entire unit apparently felt safe enough to come forward about this on Twitter, I feel that this faith is justified. I don't believe that such public whistle-blowing is possible on the Russian side.

I wouldn't rule out that the entire video is Russian propaganda either, but I was willing to give it the benefit of a doubt.

Yuri ist certainly welcome to complain about his commander.

He just needs to make sure his windows are not prone to spontaneously opening and throwing him out from a very unhealthy height.

Anyway, I don't doubt the commander will be prosecuted. Maybe it will take some time due to the active war, but I don't think he'll manage to avoid it long term.

[Stranger in a strange land]

 
Ukraine's setting the bar for talks high may be seen as something of a gamble, or maybe not. It's based on very strong confidence in their ability to continue pushing back the Russians. That seems reasonable in the wake of Russian defeats that I long expected. Of course, if things reverse, then Ukraine might find itself with difficult options.

Everything I've seen, when put together, suggests that Ukraine's hard line here makes sense in context. At the same time, what you say is true - if you want this war to end sooner and that's literally the only thing that goes into the equation, it actually makes sense to put more pressure on Ukraine. Problem with that approach might be, to use a Chinese civil war analogy - is that it would be akin to the US cutting off support for the Nationalists to pressure them to get to the table in the 1940s (a decision that probably harmed US interests in the long run).

I think it is mostly about signaling to his population and allies that he is all in and there is no retreat.  Putin did the same by annexing the 4 oblasts.  In a long-term attritional war making the case to your own side about the war existential is critical to ensure cohesion and sacrifice. 

That kind of thinking does make sense for winning one's objectives. And that's especially true in a conflict with this kind of quality.

In the end, neither side is prioritizing bringing the war to an end as soon as humanly possible; they are prioritizing shaping whatever the world will look like when the war actually ends in their favor.

Particularly in Ukraine, it would be a big hazard for Zelensky if he just laid down his arms and acted weak, especially with the war has developed. His public image would never recover and he doubtless does not want to see his country lose land like this, on a personal level. He wants those eastern portions back in the fold. Additionally, Russia going forward with annexations only amplifies the number of things that have been said and would have to be taken back and that does represent a unique step in this conflict. (Yes, these lands were annexed by Russia in the 1700s, but that was an entity that had Ukrainians in its umbrella.)

An argument could be made that the wars of Justinian in taking Italy killed the spirit of Rome; and one could likewise say that the wars of Putin killed the spirit of the Soviet Union.

One can only hope.

[Person Man]

 
Ukraine's setting the bar for talks high may be seen as something of a gamble, or maybe not. It's based on very strong confidence in their ability to continue pushing back the Russians. That seems reasonable in the wake of Russian defeats that I long expected. Of course, if things reverse, then Ukraine might find itself with difficult options.

Everything I've seen, when put together, suggests that Ukraine's hard line here makes sense in context. At the same time, what you say is true - if you want this war to end sooner and that's literally the only thing that goes into the equation, it actually makes sense to put more pressure on Ukraine. Problem with that approach might be, to use a Chinese civil war analogy - is that it would be akin to the US cutting off support for the Nationalists to pressure them to get to the table in the 1940s (a decision that probably harmed US interests in the long run).

I think it is mostly about signaling to his population and allies that he is all in and there is no retreat.  Putin did the same by annexing the 4 oblasts.  In a long-term attritional war making the case to your own side about the war existential is critical to ensure cohesion and sacrifice. 

That kind of thinking does make sense for winning one's objectives. And that's especially true in a conflict with this kind of quality.

In the end, neither side is prioritizing bringing the war to an end as soon as humanly possible; they are prioritizing shaping whatever the world will look like when the war actually ends in their favor.

Particularly in Ukraine, it would be a big hazard for Zelensky if he just laid down his arms and acted weak, especially with the war has developed. His public image would never recover and he doubtless does not want to see his country lose land like this, on a personal level. He wants those eastern portions back in the fold. Additionally, Russia going forward with annexations only amplifies the number of things that have been said and would have to be taken back and that does represent a unique step in this conflict. (Yes, these lands were annexed by Russia in the 1700s, but that was an entity that had Ukrainians in its umbrella.)

An argument could be made that the wars of Justinian in taking Italy killed the spirit of Rome; and one could likewise say that the wars of Putin killed the spirit of the Soviet Union.

One can only hope.

He’s like Justinian and Belisaurius, but even less competent.

[2952-0-0]

Perhaps just like in 1812 and 1941 General Winter comes to help Russia? Of course, this would be totally different way than in those two years.

General Winter doesn't look too kindly on armies that lack food, medicine, or even winter clothing. You'd expect the Russians (!!!) to know this better than anyone else, but much of the Russian military budget for winter clothing went into fur coats for someone's mistress, bought at Hermes in Paris.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/10/05/crowdfunding-spotlights-russian-militarys-supply-problems-in-ukraine-a78969

[jaichind]

Russia's 2022 Q2 GDP YoY came in at -4.1%.  For 2022 Q1 which was mostly before the war it came in at 3.5%.  Given that the recent PMI numbers are coming in higher than expected it seems 2022 total GDP will be much more likely to be -4%.  The current investment banking estimate is around -5.7% as opposed to -10% back in the Spring which I expect to converge to my estimate of around -4% over time.  If so due to base effects and impact of mobilization I do expect Russia's 2024 GDP to be worse than the current expected -2.5% (more like -3% or -3.5%)

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1577704855677931522?s=20&t=BNPpO9HNks5e...

Edit: added tweet of fairly large group of Russian/"separatist" POWs captured in Kherson Oblast:

google translation of the telegram post description: "12 servicemen of the 103rd regiment of the RF Armed Forces surrendered to the soldiers of the 59th brigade in the Kherson region"

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1577669678918471685?s=20&t=clDkvJ-VXvV...

[Damocles]

snip

Interesting that this BMP-2 contained only the driver, the gunner, and the commander. There weren't any infantry in the back who were taken into custody along with them. Plus the fact that they had white fabric material on the main gun and the commander was holding a white sheet is rather interesting. What are the odds these RuZZians haven't properly eaten or slept in days, have sh#%tty commanders, or simply decided, "Enough is enough"?

Perun's analysis spoke heavily about how RuZZia has serious manpower problems with its mechanized infantry divisions, and more generally along its front. Is this further evidence of that phenomenon even after the mobilization order?

[Storr]

snip

Interesting that this BMP-2 contained only the driver, the gunner, and the commander. There weren't any infantry in the back who were taken into custody along with them. Plus the fact that they had white fabric material on the main gun and the commander was holding a white sheet is rather interesting. What are the odds these RuZZians haven't properly eaten or slept in days, have sh#%tty commanders, or simply decided, "Enough is enough"?

Perun's analysis spoke heavily about how RuZZia has serious manpower problems with its mechanized infantry divisions, and more generally along its front. Is this further evidence of that phenomenon even after the mobilization order?

This tweet mentions the surrender was prearranged:
https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1577714144249352198?s=20&t=clDkvJ-VXvV...

[Person Man]

So these are guys that are deserting so that they can surrender?

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/DefMon3/status/1577712716885762050?s=20&t=clDkvJ-VXvVUzJ...

https://twitter.com/tinso_ww/status/1577706100803088389?s=20&t=clDkvJ-VXvVUz...

[President Johnson]

This woman is a strong FF. She should be granted asylum in the West.

https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1577721279343304704

[Storr]

Russian WarGonzo video from Svatove, it claims most of the civilian population has left and the road to Kreminna (the P66) is not recommended for travel:

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1577734281295806474?s=20&t=ewwDkqeFzHt...

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Russia's 2022 Q2 GDP YoY came in at -4.1%.  For 2022 Q1 which was mostly before the war it came in at 3.5%.  Given that the recent PMI numbers are coming in higher than expected it seems 2022 total GDP will be much more likely to be -4%.  The current investment banking estimate is around -5.7% as opposed to -10% back in the Spring which I expect to converge to my estimate of around -4% over time.  If so due to base effects and impact of mobilization I do expect Russia's 2024 GDP to be worse than the current expected -2.5% (more like -3% or -3.5%)

Everybody: Sharing war news, talking about potential military actions

Jaichind: Complaining about how negative GDP rates impact his long term investments

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

"never again" they said in 1945.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1577375937326329856

Thankfully, this was just a slightly icky act of theft: https://twitter.com/ronzheimer/status/1577729161460068352

Not that hard to believe, in hindsight - somebody once nicked my mouthguard from a school locker, and I was more disgusted than upset.

[Storr]

"No one left behind" is western chauvinism and decadence, I guess:

google translation: "The bodies of Russians are still lying in Liman. They are being taken little by little, but not so quickly. Locals say that these dead (13 people) were unloaded right on the street near the house, the wounded were taken away and left when they fled. The picture is terrible: stray dogs and cats start eating them"

https://twitter.com/StankoNastya/status/1577696252497723392?s=20&t=FirbSxsEn...

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1577624442087395331?s=20&t=FirbSxsEn4l...

[Omega21]

U.S. Believes Ukrainians Were Behind an Assassination in Russia

American officials said they were not aware of the plan ahead of time for the attack that killed Daria Dugina and that they had admonished Ukraine over it.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/05/us/politics/ukraine-russia-dugina-assassination.html

[Storr]

I see the mobilization is going well: https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1577757714687688705?s=20&t=tVWYOK-_...

Different video from the same group of grumpy vatniks:

https://twitter.com/markito0171/status/1577724987934666752?s=20&t=tVWYOK-_9p...