Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[HillGoose]

hell yeah the russkies are about to get their asses beat

also, has that Buchenwald level sh**t with the teeth been confirmed real?

Sadly, it is consistent with every single independent non-russian state media report out of the brutality that Russian military forces brought down on the Ukrainian people since february.

gotta hope they'll have some Nuremburg style trials after this conflict for sure

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

[Storr]

Yesterday while looking around the current front lines west of the Dnipro River, I saw a village peculiar looking village. Afanasiivka and its 600 residents are surrounded by lakes and floodplains on three sides with the Inhulets River on the fourth. Since Snihulivka is rumored to have been abandoned by the Russians and Afanasiivka and is only 5km away, I thought I'd share:

[Yoda]

"never again" they said in 1945.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1577375937326329856

Idiots like Musk think the kind of people who can do things like this are interested in peace...

[AndyHogan14]

For a good laugh: https://visitkralovec.cz/

Královec is Czechia. After the successful referendum, 97.9% of Kaliningrad residents decided to join Czech Republic and rename Kaliningrad to Královec.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Credit to r/NCD

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Yesterday while looking around the current front lines west of the Dnipro River, I saw a village peculiar looking village. Afanasiivka and its 600 residents are surrounded by lakes and floodplains on three sides with the Inhulets River on the fourth. Since Snihulivka is rumored to have been abandoned by the Russians and Afanasiivka and is only 5km away, I thought I'd share:

Looks like an unusually wide oxbow lake with some amount of human engineering of the waterline in the past. Fascinating and honestly lovely. Thanks for sharing.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Putin ratifies annexation: https://meduza.io/en/news/2022/10/05/putin-signs-laws-to-annex-ukrainian-territories

Russian officials in the Duma have insisted the full extents of all four oblasts and parts of Mykolaiv are included, but Peskov still has not clarified what, exactly, has been annexed.

[Woody]

As said above, Putin has approved the annexations. The previous heads have now been re-appointed, acting officially as Russian governors/heads of Republics.

https://twitter.com/Ajeet1994/status/1577567617883451392
https://twitter.com/MarieSantolini/status/1577581772300337153

[Woody]

With the regions now legally (according to Russian law) subjects of the Russian Federation, Putin may soon (possibly today) announce a change from the "special military operation".

https://twitter.com/Trade_The_News/status/1577571066037387264
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1577585932202541057

[Woody]

Iranian Shahed drones once again being deployed. At the heart of the country, in Kyiv oblast.

https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/status/1577585201743642625
https://twitter.com/UkraineNowMedia/status/1577569531630870529

[jaichind]

https://english.almanar.com.lb/1704408

"Cold Weather Warning Adds to Europe’s Gloom as It Battles Energy Crisis"

Europe may experience a colder winter with less wind and rain than usual, according to the European Weather Forecast Agency, adding to the challenges facing governments trying to solve the continent’s energy crisis.

Perhaps just like in 1812 and 1941 General Winter comes to help Russia? Of course, this would be totally different way than in those two years.

[afleitch]

https://english.almanar.com.lb/1704408

"Cold Weather Warning Adds to Europe’s Gloom as It Battles Energy Crisis"

Europe may experience a colder winter with less wind and rain than usual, according to the European Weather Forecast Agency, adding to the challenges facing governments trying to solve the continent’s energy crisis.

Perhaps just like in 1812 and 1941 General Winter comes to help Russia? Of course, this would be totally different way than in those two years.

Please, less hyperbole in your posts here.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Longterm weather forecasts are not very reliable for regions with classic Maritime Climates (i.e. most of North Western Europe) and, for what it is worth, most are presently projecting another comparatively mild Winter. But here's the thing: even what we would think of as a cold Winter would still be quite mild in objective terms - outside certain high mountain ranges, we just do not get the sort of terrifying temperatures found in true continental climates at the same latitudes. These (rather distasteful) hopes are founded on profound ignorance.

[jaichind]

With the regions now legally (according to Russian law) subjects of the Russian Federation, Putin may soon (possibly today) announce a change from the "special military operation".

I assume it will become ATO which then will become standard practice to go after Ukraine's civilian infrastructure versus doing so as one-offs.  Not sure if Russia has the capacity to actually knock out  Ukraine's civilian infrastructure and keep it down and also deal with possible Ukraine retaliation but this seems to be the most likely short-term path.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Re: weather
The biggest issue for Europe will not be temperatures themselves, or even precuring the natural resources they need. It will be the economic side-effects from what they have to do to secure natural resources to deal with the weather.
And that is the tax of opposing Russia. Reduced economic efficiency.

[jaichind]

Ha! After months of scraping for every conceivable straw to declare that Russia's economy isn't really affected by sanctions, where the rubber meets the road, atlas's own Montgomery Burns won't risk his own money investing in russia. Very telling!

Sorry this is off-topic but if one would buy an asset or not is not just a perception of underlying fundamentals but what the current price of a said asset is relative to perceived fundamentals.   The fact that there is no trading in Russian ETFs means there is no current price so such an evaluation is impossible.

Investing cannot just be about "I like the prospects of economy A or sector B so I will buy A or B."  One has to take into account how others are estimating the value of A or B and are such prospects already priced in.  One personal historical example would be based on my visits to the PRC in the early to mid-1990s I concluded that a successful PRC industrial takeoff was inevitable.  I thought about it some and concluded I will not buy funds based on PRC since others would have come to the same conclusion and would have bid up the price already.  Instead, I focused on "what are the consequences of a PRC industrial takeoff?" and concluded that I should buy natural resources whose prices will almost be bid up by the surging PRC industrial economy.  That bet paid off by the mid-2000s.  

Just be clear I had just as many setbacks (many of which are where I made the mistake of buying A because I liked the prospects of A) as success trying to make sectoral-based investments and they mostly canceled each over the years but the lesson is always one should not act "I like A so I will buy A" which in my view is always a mistake.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Friendly reminder that gas stocks are almost full in every EU country right now, and that is expected to get us through the Winter. Maybe not comfortably, and certainly not cheaply, but all the same.

[CumbrianLefty]

What's this about Russia "annexing" parts of Mykolaiv oblast - don't they basically control one town there now, which they are quite likely to be evicted from pretty soon?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

What's this about Russia "annexing" parts of Mykolaiv oblast - don't they basically control one town there now, which they are quite likely to be evicted from pretty soon?

The Kherson occupation administration claimed occupied areas in two of four regions in Mykolaiv had joined Kherson and would participate in the recent electoral-type event. Protests in occupied Snihurivka occurred ahead of that event (footage on Twitter) but I'm not sure they were subjected to it in the end.

Most reports don't mention the annexation of Mykolaiv, but certain Russian officials seem to be of the opinion that the occupied bits considered part of Kherson and therefore annexed. Others argue the administrative regions themselves are annexed rather than merely the occupied parts of the regions, which would mean Russia had annexed the city of Mykolaiv along with swathes of territory they have never controlled.

Peskov keeps contradicting himself, Putin refuses to elaborate and the very special operation continues.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://english.almanar.com.lb/1704408

"Cold Weather Warning Adds to Europe’s Gloom as It Battles Energy Crisis"

Europe may experience a colder winter with less wind and rain than usual, according to the European Weather Forecast Agency, adding to the challenges facing governments trying to solve the continent’s energy crisis.

Perhaps just like in 1812 and 1941 General Winter comes to help Russia? Of course, this would be totally different way than in those two years.

You posted a link and a quote from Libanon-based Al-Manar TV.

Al-Manar is owned and operated by Hezbollah.

As such, Al-Manar was designated as a “Specially Designated Global Terrorist entity" by the United States government in 2004, and is subject to US sanctions.

In Germany, Al-Manar is banned as an anti-constitutional organization.

[jaichind]

https://english.almanar.com.lb/1704408

"Cold Weather Warning Adds to Europe’s Gloom as It Battles Energy Crisis"

Europe may experience a colder winter with less wind and rain than usual, according to the European Weather Forecast Agency, adding to the challenges facing governments trying to solve the continent’s energy crisis.

Perhaps just like in 1812 and 1941 General Winter comes to help Russia? Of course, this would be totally different way than in those two years.

You posted a link and a quote from Libanon-based Al-Manar TV.

Al-Manar is owned and operated by Hezbollah.

As such, Al-Manar was designated as a “Specially Designated Global Terrorist entity" by the United States government in 2004.

In Germany, Al-Manar is banned as an anti-constitutional organization.

Here is the Financial Times version of the same story

https://www.ft.com/content/918c604a-e087-4137-911d-1b7f98f4e670

[YL]

Longterm weather forecasts are not very reliable for regions with classic Maritime Climates (i.e. most of North Western Europe) and, for what it is worth, most are presently projecting another comparatively mild Winter. But here's the thing: even what we would think of as a cold Winter would still be quite mild in objective terms - outside certain high mountain ranges, we just do not get the sort of terrifying temperatures found in true continental climates at the same latitudes. These (rather distasteful) hopes are founded on profound ignorance.

... and media reporting of long range forecasts is even less reliable than the forecasts themselves.

[jaichind]

Westerners who pathetically cry for peace always put the burden of seeking peace on Ukraine and the US but never Russia. I wonder why......

Well for one thing Zelensky signed a decree formally announcing the "impossible" prospect of peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

https://www.livemint.com/news/world/ukraine-zelensky-signs-decree-rule-out-negotiation-russia-vladimir-putin-impossible-11664876727245.html

It seems if there going to be a negotiated settlement then one side ruling out talks pretty much makes that difficult to take place.

Well, Putin just recently said that we would not negotiate over Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk. To be honest, Putin making that claim shows far more stubbornness than anything Zelenskyy has said. Ukraine, cannot, under any circumstances accept the loss of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. One can make the (false) argument for the Donbas and Crimea, but it is insane to suggest that Ukraine ever renounce their claim to the two southern oblasts.

But is Russia making Ukraine accepting Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk as Russian territories a prerequisite for talks versus that is their current position?  It seems Ukraine is making Putin being gone a prerequisite for talks.  I am not saying that Ukraine is or is not justified in its position but I am merely making the narrow point that if anyone wants talks as early as possible to try to end this war they are better off pressuring Ukraine than Russia to drop their prerequisites.  If is up to Ukraine to heed that pressure or not of course.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Friendly reminder that gas stocks are almost full in every EU country right now, and that is expected to get us through the Winter. Maybe not comfortably, and certainly not cheaply, but all the same.

The silver lining here then is that this implies a significant chunk of the cost Europe has paid to shut itself off from Russian gas has already been paid. There will be more down the road, but right now, Europe has largely placed itself well for this winter. That might be all they need, given Russia also suffers from this status quo, not just Europe. The economic efficiency that Europe gained with its supply of Russian hydrocarbons benefited both parties; the loss of that harms not just Europe but also Russia. Of course, it is a pipedream to stop Russia from exporting its gas and oil...but it's also a pipedream, in the era of LNG ships and various other modern infrastructure, for Europe to be psychically unable to meet its needs without Russian help.

Russia's loss of soft power is reaching catastrophic levels and European consumers are very willing to pay higher prices on their energy bills to stick it to Putin.