Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Stranger in a strange land]

https://twitter.com/CarlSchreck/status/1577268082690908160

I can't believe they passed up the opportunity to go for a classic, epic headline like "Cannibal Demands More Bodies".

[jaichind]

Westerners who pathetically cry for peace always put the burden of seeking peace on Ukraine and the US but never Russia. I wonder why......

Well for one thing Zelensky signed a decree formally announcing the "impossible" prospect of peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

https://www.livemint.com/news/world/ukraine-zelensky-signs-decree-rule-out-negotiation-russia-vladimir-putin-impossible-11664876727245.html

It seems if there going to be a negotiated settlement then one side ruling out talks pretty much makes that difficult to take place.

[AndyHogan14]

Westerners who pathetically cry for peace always put the burden of seeking peace on Ukraine and the US but never Russia. I wonder why......

Well for one thing Zelensky signed a decree formally announcing the "impossible" prospect of peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

https://www.livemint.com/news/world/ukraine-zelensky-signs-decree-rule-out-negotiation-russia-vladimir-putin-impossible-11664876727245.html

It seems if there going to be a negotiated settlement then one side ruling out talks pretty much makes that difficult to take place.

Well, Putin just recently said that we would not negotiate over Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk. To be honest, Putin making that claim shows far more stubbornness than anything Zelenskyy has said. Ukraine, cannot, under any circumstances accept the loss of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. One can make the (false) argument for the Donbas and Crimea, but it is insane to suggest that Ukraine ever renounce their claim to the two southern oblasts.

[Storr]

Morale is high:

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/status/1577371370547200008?s=20&t=A_D-rBq2...

Back in Moscow:

https://twitter.com/aniratakana/status/1577371586310864896?s=20&t=A_D-rBq2ok...

[The Dowager Mod]

"never again" they said in 1945.
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1577375937326329856

[Storr]

The 108th was fighting in Kherson Oblast:

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1577403797114011648?s=20&t=sABSqUfvqaRCtD...

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Westerners who pathetically cry for peace always put the burden of seeking peace on Ukraine and the US but never Russia. I wonder why......

Well for one thing Zelensky signed a decree formally announcing the "impossible" prospect of peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russian President Vladimir Putin.

https://www.livemint.com/news/world/ukraine-zelensky-signs-decree-rule-out-negotiation-russia-vladimir-putin-impossible-11664876727245.html

It seems if there going to be a negotiated settlement then one side ruling out talks pretty much makes that difficult to take place.

Well, Putin just recently said that we would not negotiate over Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Luhansk. To be honest, Putin making that claim shows far more stubbornness than anything Zelenskyy has said. Ukraine, cannot, under any circumstances accept the loss of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. One can make the (false) argument for the Donbas and Crimea, but it is insane to suggest that Ukraine ever renounce their claim to the two southern oblasts.

You have to keep in mind that jaichind supports authoritarian regimes on principle (not even always right-wing ones! See his love for Duterte). I think the reason he has a libertarian avatar is just because yellow is his favorite color.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The entire war was a feint to help the generals fighting against Kadryov in the real conflict: the war of the optics.

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1577375498011049984?s=46&t=MvCEYpM4rRoiRe...

[Middle-aged Europe]

Very recently, I seemed to have seen am increasing number of profiles on Valerii Zaluzhnyi in German media. He's the four-star general in command of the Ukrainian army whose embrace of unorthodox, modern, and/or Western military tactics is now credited for Ukraine's recent successes in the war.


For example:

https://www.rnd.de/politik/narrte-putin-drei-mal-walerij-saluschnyj-chef-der-ukrainischen-armee-6TP7GDQWDFGSHFV3BV7GDOKVSA.html

https://taz.de/Ukrainische-Armee/!5882843/

One German media outlet was even speculating that he could eventually succeed Zelenskyy as president:

https://web.de/magazine/politik/russland-krieg-ukraine/general-putin-albtraeume-bereitet-naechste-praesident-ukraine-37348574

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1577432208323010562

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ukraine_map/status/1577432208323010562

One of them is Romanov Lite, the Russian imperialist of hide-your-war-crimes fame. I wouldn't trust Rybar announcing Ukrainian advances because they're prone to pitching all over the place at this point, but Romanov's worth paying attention to in this case.

I'd still be a little surprised if this is true. The front hasn't moved around Snihurivka for a while - it's a big place and Russia should still have fortifications around it. One plausible scenario is that Russia is retreating faster than Ukraine can consolidate; another is that the order has finally been given to pull back to Kherson City, if not west of the Dnieper itself.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/YAmzallagh/status/1577319606057934849?t=67294mH5zXp_8Y5zc9lp...

[NOVA Green]

Since Kherson Province seems to be getting it's fair share of attention in recent days, just saw this thread earlier I thought interesting, although I will defer my opinions to those of you who have been following the daily battlefield movements in closer detail than myself.

Not quite sure how many of the tweets on this guys thread will show up, but pretty sure if you click on the Tweet you can look at the whole thread.

https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1577324176662306819?s=20&t=-mV42U24gHElL...

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/YAmzallagh/status/1577319606057934849?t=67294mH5zXp_8Y5zc9lp...

On that note take with major shakers of salt, but Ukraine might have launched a bit of an offensive against Kherson City itself in the early hours of the morning (Ukrainian Time).

https://twitter.com/daves1331/status/1577456093676023811?s=20&t=-mV42U24gHEl...

[Virginiá]

This is the current state of play by Rus milblogger Rybar on telegram, which isn't the worst source for this kind of thing:

Not quite sure how many of the tweets on this guys thread will show up, but pretty sure if you click on the Tweet you can look at the whole thread.

Things are moving fast on the ground right now. The Russians in that salient have already retreated because of how vulnerable the position became.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I've read some military analysts say that if Kherson proper falls Russia is completely and utterly f[inked], that's the end of all their key supply lines.

[AndyHogan14]

I've read some military analysts say that if Kherson proper falls Russia is completely and utterly f[inked], that's the end of all their key supply lines.

It also secures everything west of the Dnipro River. Once Kherson Oblast west of the river is liberated, they can blow the bridges, leave a small force (in case there is a futile attempt to cross the river and to mess with Muscovite supply lines), and then free up the remaining troops to rest, regroup, and then be redeployed to Zaporizhzhia or the Donbas.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I've read some military analysts say that if Kherson proper falls Russia is completely and utterly f[inked], that's the end of all their key supply lines.

They might mean the whole oblast, but I’m going to assume most are referring to the part west of the river.

Taking all of that puts more stuff over the river in HIMARS range, but the likes of Kofman have argued that Russia would still be smart to retreat from Kherson because they’d benefit from having to defend a shorter frontline (the Dnieper is a natural barrier).

Of course, this isn’t necessarily an orderly retreat.

[Virginiá]

I've read some military analysts say that if Kherson proper falls Russia is completely and utterly f[inked], that's the end of all their key supply lines.

Losing Kherson likely means losing control over the dam that provides most of Crimea's fresh water, so that would be a major issue for Russia. It's likely the reason why Putin would not give up their very vulnerable position and shifted so many forces to Kherson that he set up Kharkiv and Luhansk fronts for collapse.

That being said, until Ukraine either breaks the "land bridge" to Crimea, or retakes Kherson Oblast, the supply lines to Southern Ukraine will continue on, although losing control here will put even more logistical hubs in the south within HIMARS range.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I've read some military analysts say that if Kherson proper falls Russia is completely and utterly f[inked], that's the end of all their key supply lines.

Losing Kherson likely means losing control over the dam that provides most of Crimea's fresh water, so that would be a major issue for Russia. It’s likely the reason why Putin would not give up their very vulnerable position and shifted so many forces to Kherson that he set up Kharkiv and Luhansk fronts for collapse.

I read that was controlled from the eastern side. Even if the dam was sabotaged by Ukraine (and they have plenty of incentives not to do this), the canal itself is on the eastern side so that wouldn’t be a long-term problem for the occupation of Crimea.

Taking the area just over the dam would absolutely threaten that area, if Ukrainian advances continued east of the Dnieper - but I’d imagine Russia could set up plenty of defences if Ukraine decided to attack over just one bridge.

[HillGoose]

hell yeah the russkies are about to get their asses beat

also, has that Buchenwald level sh**t with the teeth been confirmed real?

[Storr]

@War_Mapper is conservative when it comes to changing their map, so it is possible the Ukrainians have already pushed further than this map:

https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1577449160760074242?s=20&t=4GUWuCRQU0o...

[Virginiá]

I read that was controlled from the eastern side. Even if the dam was sabotaged by Ukraine (and they have plenty of incentives not to do this), the canal itself is on the eastern side so that wouldn’t be a long-term problem for the occupation of Crimea.

Taking the area just over the dam would absolutely threaten that area, if Ukrainian advances continued east of the Dnieper - but I’d imagine Russia could set up plenty of defences if Ukraine decided to attack over just one bridge.

Yeah, my thinking is that Ukraine is going to contest that spot, but I'm not sure how that will play out. Ukraine has been fairly attentive towards minimizing damage to cities/towns and infrastructure, but that particular site is too valuable. Not entirely sure how it will play out, and whether Putin would rather destroy the dam if he thinks he will lose it. Ukraine could also decide that it is too dangerous to fight over it.

[Oryxslayer]

I've read some military analysts say that if Kherson proper falls Russia is completely and utterly f[inked], that's the end of all their key supply lines.

Losing Kherson likely means losing control over the dam that provides most of Crimea's fresh water, so that would be a major issue for Russia. It's likely the reason why Putin would not give up their very vulnerable position and shifted so many forces to Kherson that he set up Kharkiv and Luhansk fronts for collapse.

That being said, until Ukraine either breaks the "land bridge" to Crimea, or retakes Kherson Oblast, the supply lines to Southern Ukraine will continue on, although losing control here will put even more logistical hubs in the south within HIMARS range.

I said it earlier, but it bears remembering that the single main reason for Russian Leadership's desire to hold western Kherson Oblast is political. Kerson city is a true bug urban city, meaning it is perceived as having more value then hundreds of random villages. Its liberation would be be a big blow to the current Kremlin leadership's political capital/legitimacy/appearances. Especially if that liberation came though a rout or uncontested withdrawal rather than block-to-block warfare and a months-long siege.

Obviously with liberation there is closing of the front to all but artillery, since nobody is going to ford the river in force, which would prompt redeployments and new fronts. But that is all secondary when compared to the overall political goals here.

[Badger]

hell yeah the russkies are about to get their asses beat

also, has that Buchenwald level sh**t with the teeth been confirmed real?

Sadly, it is consistent with every single independent non-russian state media report out of the brutality that Russian military forces brought down on the Ukrainian people since february.