Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Is the train much safer than govt airplanes these days? Noticed that all Western leaders paying visits to Kyiv arrive and leave by train.

It has been since the start of the conflict. Russia still hits parts of the (defended) railway network with missiles, but at a decreased tempo and usually not that far west into Ukraine. Additionally, if Russia knew about leaders’ trips in advance, I suspect they deliberately avoided targeting them.

One of the few domains where Russian military tech is ahead is in anti-air weaponry. Maybe it’s different in Odessa now, but all the footage I’ve seen of Ukrainian planes in action had them flying low to avoid entering the envelope of the Russian air defences in Crimea, which can reach all of Ukraine at certain (minimum) altitudes. Flying low carries its own risks and fighter jets (compared to civilian or transport planes) are much better equipped to begin with when it comes to avoiding AA missiles.

There is a long history of AA systems/operators mistaking (or claiming to mistake) civilian planes for military jets and causing tragedies by shooting them down. The MH17 crash would weigh on the mind of any politician who dared to fly to Ukraine.

[CumbrianLefty]

The "Kherson offensive" is just another twitter offensive. There are no credible reports that Ukraine has achieved any meaningful gains. But whatever keeps people happy I guess.

Ukraine appear to have "retaken" a few fairly small settlements.

Not the same, but not a million miles from the Donbass offensive either.

[Hindsight was 2020]

The "Kherson offensive" is just another twitter offensive. There are no credible reports that Ukraine has achieved any meaningful gains. But whatever keeps people happy I guess.

Russia is losing the war lol cope

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The "Kherson offensive" is just another twitter offensive. There are no credible reports that Ukraine has achieved any meaningful gains. But whatever keeps people happy I guess.

Russia is losing the war lol cope

Russia has probably already lost the war in the sense that it is unlikely to have the combat power to achieve most of its significant goals, but Ukraine is also losing it because they are stuck in a horrible war of attrition which has a far greater impact on their civilian population than Russia’s and face the prospect of being unable to retake most of the land that Russia still occupies.

Russia grinding itself into exhaustion would not actually be a good thing or the ideal way for Ukraine to achieve “victory”; if Russia has to exhaust its entire artillery ammunition to lose, a lot more of Ukraine is going to be destroyed.

[President Johnson]

Movement towards becoming an official candidate for EU membership:

https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1537476093611069442

[Storr]

Macron can say whatever he wants, as long as he keeps sending these to Ukraine:

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1537509560499462170?s=20&t=e8eEJpz...

[jaichind]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/some-european-factories-long-dependent-on-cheap-russian-energy-are-shutting-down-11655112927

"Some European Factories, Long Dependent on Cheap Russian Energy, Are Shutting Down"

More blowback on EU.  PRC and India industry are the big winners since they can now procedure energy at a cheaper cost than their European competitors.

[bilaps]

I guess

The "Kherson offensive" is just another twitter offensive. There are no credible reports that Ukraine has achieved any meaningful gains. But whatever keeps people happy I guess.

Russia is losing the war lol cope

I don't know but I suspect if you wish something hard enough, it could be true in some moment. This situation is not that kind of moment but keep trying

[jaichind]

https://thehill.com/policy/defense/3525893-biden-told-austin-blinken-to-tone-down-remarks-supporting-ukraine-report/

"Biden told Austin, Blinken to tone down remarks supporting Ukraine: report"

Yeah, if you think things will not go well the first thing to do is to distance yourself from it.

[jaichind]

https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/80302/

"Reshetnikov expects deflation in Russia in June"

Russian Economic Development Minister Maxim Reshetnikov expects June MoM CPI to be negative.  Russia's May MoM CPI already fell dramatically to 0.12% which is a run rate of CPI in the low single digits.  Now on a MoM basis, Russia might see deflation soon as opposed to the surging inflation in the rest of the world, especially in the collective West.

[Torie]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/some-european-factories-long-dependent-on-cheap-russian-energy-are-shutting-down-11655112927

"Some European Factories, Long Dependent on Cheap Russian Energy, Are Shutting Down"

More blowback on EU.  PRC and India industry are the big winners since they can now procedure energy at a cheaper cost than their European competitors.

Yes, the ROR sucks, at least in the short term.

"I have nothing to offer but blood, toil, tears and sweat”

Churchill did not think short term, and was aware that resisting evil and doing right was not a free lunch. Quite the opposite.

The West and those who share its values must cease to be economically entangled and thus subject to coercion from autocratic nations fostering death and destruction as if playing a game of Risk with little wooden boxes rather than humans.

[Badger]

https://www.independent.co.uk/independentpremium/world/zelensky-biden-russia-invasion-intel-b2100055.html

"Ukraine hits back at Biden’s ‘absurd’ remark that Zelensky ‘didn’t want to hear’ US intel on Russia"

This back and forth blame game between Biden and Zelensky indicate that Zelensky himself might be ousted by USA maneuvers behind the scenes if they are going public with this.   If this is anywhere close to being true then I will warn Biden that the USA pushing out Diem in 1963 actually weakened RVN positive vis-a-vis DRV.  If somehow Zelensky goes it would dramatically weaken Ukraine's position vis-a-vis Russia in future peace talks.

Oh stop licking your chops. Your moral nihilism is gross.

[Storr]

This bit stood out to me:
"For the locals – no one is sure: who they are, what they do. They might be fighting us at night but in daytime they are civilian people driving around in cars. No one can be trusted here, no one at all. A grandmother might be walking around carrying pies, but at night she may turn out to be a Colonel, artillery adjuster."

https://twitter.com/mdmitri91/status/1537418137011949568?s=20&t=0IhbHA8U9jMp...

[Badger]

The "Kherson offensive" is just another twitter offensive. There are no credible reports that Ukraine has achieved any meaningful gains. But whatever keeps people happy I guess.

K.

[Badger]

I guess

The "Kherson offensive" is just another twitter offensive. There are no credible reports that Ukraine has achieved any meaningful gains. But whatever keeps people happy I guess.

Russia is losing the war lol cope

I don't know but I suspect if you wish something hard enough, it could be true in some moment. This situation is not that kind of moment but keep trying

Pot and Kettle and all that

[The Dowager Mod]

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1537467309887000576

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

https://mobile.twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1536853505050300416
The Kherson counteroffensive is going to be a key to watch the next few weeks

Russians better not buy any housing in Kherson, they aren't going to be there long term.

[Logical]

https://twitter.com/KyleJGlen/status/1537506508942061569

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Movement towards becoming an official candidate for EU membership:

https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1537476093611069442

Even besides being actively invaded, Montenegro has far fewer issues than Ukraine, and they were where Ukraine is now 12 years ago and still have a while to go.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Movement towards becoming an official candidate for EU membership:

https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1537476093611069442

Even besides being actively invaded, Montenegro has far fewer issues than Ukraine, and they were where Ukraine is now 12 years ago and still have a while to go.

The candidate with the worst lot is probably Macedonia. Just as it finally worked past Greece’s animosity, Bulgaria began obstructing it. Now, the Bulgarian government is set to collapse because the current PM was leaning against vetoing further talks on Macedonian EU membership.

[rc18]

Another ship claimed to have been sunk, this time a rescue tug said to be carrying a Tor SAM system to Snake Island. This has been reported by the Ukrainian Navy so hopefully it is correct.

https://twitter.com/UA_NAVY/status/1537682084088651776?s=20&t=eKJ7IVnbBwRFrc...

The Navy of the Armed Forces of Ukraine struck another "no analogues" - a tug with SAM "TOR" on board

The tugboat of the Black Sea Fleet "Vasiliy Bekh" was hit in the Black Sea during the transportation of ammunition, weapons and personnel of the Black Sea Fleet to Snake Island.

And the video of the strike from a TB2. Seems the TB2 may have been just spotting and the weapons used are anti-ship missiles.

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1537696927827079170?s=20&t=eKJ7IVnbBwRF...

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Another ship claimed to have been sunk, this time a rescue tug said to be carrying a Tor SAM system to Snake Island. This has been reported by the Ukrainian Navy so hopefully it is correct.

https://twitter.com/UA_NAVY/status/1537682084088651776?s=20&t=eKJ7IVnbBwRFrc...

The Navy of the Armed Forces of Ukraine struck another "no analogues" - a tug with SAM "TOR" on board

The tugboat of the Black Sea Fleet "Vasiliy Bekh" was hit in the Black Sea during the transportation of ammunition, weapons and personnel of the Black Sea Fleet to Snake Island.

And the video of the strike from a TB2. Seems the TB2 may have been just spotting and the weapons used are anti-ship missiles.

https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1537696927827079170?s=20&t=eKJ7IVnbBwRF...

Odessan local government is claiming this was the work of a Harpoon missile, but the (abbreviated) training wasn't supposed to be finished for a few days yet and I've seen some claims to the contrary.

Given the short range of other anti-ship missiles in Ukraine, the only other plausible answers are a ship-launched missile (very risky given the size and vulnerability of the Ukrainian fleet) or a Neptune missile. It is quite plausible the imminent entry of Harpoons into Ukrainian service made Ukraine feel more comfortable about using its limited stock of Neptunes.

Striking resupply vehicles like this might be the best way to solve Ukraine's Snake Island problems. It allows them to avoid wasting guided land-attack rockets on the island that could be used in the Donbas while still making the occupation painful and potentially untenable.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

After Macron's bombastic rhetoric yesterday comes a statement that will make his alleged desire for Ukrainian victory much harder to achieve:

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1537731157235834880
Soviet/Russian tanks and aircraft have already been sent, along with plenty of modern weapons more formidable than tanks.

I struggle to see a sensible rationale in being prepared to commit what has already been committed but not newer tanks on escalatory grounds, but hopefully he originally opposed some of that, too, and can be brought around. It does suggest that preparation for delivery of new aircraft - which would take a long time - has not yet begun.

Alternatively, he might be lying through his teeth and claiming jets won't be delivered until they are, but that assumes a degree of competence I'm not willing to in this case.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Alternatively, he might be lying through his teeth and claiming jets won't be delivered until they are, but that assumes a degree of competence I'm not willing to in this case.

The safest assumption with Macron, from having to deal with him at home every day, is that he's talking out of his ass. Not lying through his teeth as part of some 34d chess plan, but also not a serious commitment he'll stand by if standing by it becomes inconvenient. He just says whatever to get through the moment, and will have no problem saying the opposite thing tomorrow if he thinks it will help. His coming around to giving Ukraine candidate status is already a 180° from a few month ago.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Alternatively, he might be lying through his teeth and claiming jets won't be delivered until they are, but that assumes a degree of competence I'm not willing to in this case.

The safest assumption with Macron, from having to deal with him at home every day, is that he's talking out of his ass. Not lying through his teeth as part of some 34d chess plan, but also not a serious commitment he'll stand by if standing by it becomes inconvenient. He just says whatever to get through the moment, and will have no problem saying the opposite thing tomorrow if he thinks it will help. His coming around to giving Ukraine candidate status is already a 180° from a few month ago.

If that's his modus operandi, a commitment about not sending e.g. small arms can't be relied on by Russia for long, because arranging the delivery of, logistics for and training on small arms is a quick process.

The issue with having this kind of stance on jets is that it gives Russia months - possibly years - of breathing room, depending on how long it takes to make newer jets work for Ukraine. Unless "we won't supply jets" does not preclude training Ukrainians on jets in the meantime, Macron changing his mind will be followed by the non-trivial delay in getting the jets ready. In the interim (in or before which the Ukrainian Air Force might be heading towards total collapse), there are fewer and fewer Soviet/Russian jet/AA platforms Ukraine can be supplied with.

It was bad enough with the MiG-29s that Ukraine already knows how to use, and I hope (but don't expect) that leaders learnt from this.