Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/19/energy/germany-russia-gas-supplies-winter-intl/index.html

"Germany to fire up coal stations as Russia squeezes gas supply"

The Western Left faces many impossible trinities.  One of them with respect to energy policy is you can have a most 2 of the 3:

a) No Putin/MBS
b) No nuclear power
c) No local hydrocarbon energy

So the Western Left has to pick which one of the 3 to give up.

It's a little surprising that they aren't also extending the lifespans of the nuclear power stations. The process would probably take a bit longer than restarting coal plants given safety regulations, which is exactly why a rational government would start it earlier rather than once winter hits. Oh well.

[jaichind]

RUB surges to 55 which must now be a problem for the Central Bank of Russia which clearly wants a RUB at 70-80.  The way out is to allow foreigners to sell Russian assets and shift move out of Russia but while Russian reserves are frozen by the West, freezing foreigners' ability to move their assets out of Russia is Russia's only logical retaliatory move.  The other way out is mass imports from PRC and India but while such imports are surging but clearly they must be running into logical constraints.  RUB's strength is a symbol of constraints on the Russian economy where a clearly better term of trade has not translated into a greater resource gain given the limited ability to import.

[CumbrianLefty]

https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/19/energy/germany-russia-gas-supplies-winter-intl/index.html

"Germany to fire up coal stations as Russia squeezes gas supply"

The Western Left faces many impossible trinities.  One of them with respect to energy policy is you can have a most 2 of the 3:

a) No Putin/MBS
b) No nuclear power
c) No local hydrocarbon energy

So the Western Left has to pick which one of the 3 to give up.

Well the "Western Left" has never been monolithically anti-nuclear power, and that is a trend I expect to see accelerate following recent events.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/19/energy/germany-russia-gas-supplies-winter-intl/index.html

"Germany to fire up coal stations as Russia squeezes gas supply"

The Western Left faces many impossible trinities.  One of them with respect to energy policy is you can have a most 2 of the 3:

a) No Putin/MBS
b) No nuclear power
c) No local hydrocarbon energy

So the Western Left has to pick which one of the 3 to give up.

Well the "Western Left" has never been monolithically anti-nuclear power, and that is a trend I expect to see accelerate following recent events.

Count me among the "Western Left" who are unashamedly pro-nuclear power.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/19/energy/germany-russia-gas-supplies-winter-intl/index.html

"Germany to fire up coal stations as Russia squeezes gas supply"

The Western Left faces many impossible trinities.  One of them with respect to energy policy is you can have a most 2 of the 3:

a) No Putin/MBS
b) No nuclear power
c) No local hydrocarbon energy

So the Western Left has to pick which one of the 3 to give up.

It's a little surprising that they aren't also extending the lifespans of the nuclear power stations. The process would probably take a bit longer than restarting coal plants given safety regulations, which is exactly why a rational government would start it earlier rather than once winter hits. Oh well.

The reason being is, of course, that restarting the three remaining nuclear plants would take much longer than until the start of winter and therefore the conclusion of the recentg government survey was that they are  technologically and economically unfeasible as an alternative to Russian fossil fuels. Obstacles, in addition to the aforementioned safety procedures, include the lack of fuel rods and as well as opposition (/lack of interest) by the operating companies to restart them.

[Storr]

Big news. This isn't going to starve Kaliningrad, or anything major like that. Russia still has the Baltic Sea to use. This will be headache for the Kremlin, though.

https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1538174513963204609?s=20&t=GBJ27nJhZBF...

Update:

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1538910841378066432?s=20&t=54KsHT3l7Z0xDK...

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/19/energy/germany-russia-gas-supplies-winter-intl/index.html

"Germany to fire up coal stations as Russia squeezes gas supply"

The Western Left faces many impossible trinities.  One of them with respect to energy policy is you can have a most 2 of the 3:

a) No Putin/MBS
b) No nuclear power
c) No local hydrocarbon energy

So the Western Left has to pick which one of the 3 to give up.

It's a little surprising that they aren't also extending the lifespans of the nuclear power stations. The process would probably take a bit longer than restarting coal plants given safety regulations, which is exactly why a rational government would start it earlier rather than once winter hits. Oh well.

The reason being is, of course, that restarting the three remaining nuclear plants would take much longer than until the start of winter and therefore the conclusion of the recentg government survey was that they are  technologically and economically unfeasible as an alternative to Russian fossil fuels. Obstacles, in addition to the aforementioned safety procedures, include the lack of fuel rods and as well as opposition (/lack of interest) by the operating companies to restart them.

The need/use for alternatives to Russian gas may last beyond this winter, and in addition to the three shut down, there are three due to be shut down by the end of this year which could have their lives extended.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/19/energy/germany-russia-gas-supplies-winter-intl/index.html

"Germany to fire up coal stations as Russia squeezes gas supply"

The Western Left faces many impossible trinities.  One of them with respect to energy policy is you can have a most 2 of the 3:

a) No Putin/MBS
b) No nuclear power
c) No local hydrocarbon energy

So the Western Left has to pick which one of the 3 to give up.

It's a little surprising that they aren't also extending the lifespans of the nuclear power stations. The process would probably take a bit longer than restarting coal plants given safety regulations, which is exactly why a rational government would start it earlier rather than once winter hits. Oh well.

The reason being is, of course, that restarting the three remaining nuclear plants would take much longer than until the start of winter and therefore the conclusion of the recentg government survey was that they are  technologically and economically unfeasible as an alternative to Russian fossil fuels. Obstacles, in addition to the aforementioned safety procedures, include the lack of fuel rods and as well as opposition (/lack of interest) by the operating companies to restart them.

The need/use for alternatives to Russian gas may last beyond this winter, and in addition to the three shut down, there are three due to be shut down by the end of this year which could have their lives extended.

I was actually talking about the three plants that are due to be shut down. The other three that already are would be an different issue entirely, I suppose.

[jaichind]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-restrict-russian-books-music-latest-cultural-break-moscow-2022-06-19/

"Ukraine to restrict Russian books, music in latest cultural break from Moscow"

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/19/energy/germany-russia-gas-supplies-winter-intl/index.html

"Germany to fire up coal stations as Russia squeezes gas supply"

The Western Left faces many impossible trinities.  One of them with respect to energy policy is you can have a most 2 of the 3:

a) No Putin/MBS
b) No nuclear power
c) No local hydrocarbon energy

So the Western Left has to pick which one of the 3 to give up.

It's a little surprising that they aren't also extending the lifespans of the nuclear power stations. The process would probably take a bit longer than restarting coal plants given safety regulations, which is exactly why a rational government would start it earlier rather than once winter hits. Oh well.

The reason being is, of course, that restarting the three remaining nuclear plants would take much longer than until the start of winter and therefore the conclusion of the recentg government survey was that they are  technologically and economically unfeasible as an alternative to Russian fossil fuels. Obstacles, in addition to the aforementioned safety procedures, include the lack of fuel rods and as well as opposition (/lack of interest) by the operating companies to restart them.

The need/use for alternatives to Russian gas may last beyond this winter, and in addition to the three shut down, there are three due to be shut down by the end of this year which could have their lives extended.

I was actually talking about the three plants that are due to be shut down. The other three that already are would be an different issue entirely, I suppose.

To further elaborate on the issue... the three remaining nuclear plants that are currently still in operation, but also in the process of being shut down, have of course been debated about a lot recently around here. The energy ministry's assessement was that even if we start a process to keep them operational beyond this year right away they wouldn't be of much use in the coming winter anyway. So we're essentially talking about using them as a backup for the winter of '23/'24. By that time the recent gas and hydrogen deals with Qatar/UAE/Egypt/Israel/Japan/etc. will probably have started to come into effect. But one or the other neither nuclear power nor Russian gas will be much of an option for Germany in the winter of '22/'23 which is the very reason why we're talking about using more coal for the time being.

[Storr]

"For now, Ukraine’s fate remains in the balance. The nation is much larger than Chechnya, and its people are committed to the struggle. The flow of military aid to Kyiv from the West far outstrips anything the beleaguered rebels of the North Caucasus could count on. Yet the logic of attritional conflict is now on Russia’s side, and Putin’s strategic patience is based on sound precedent. Moscow knows what it wants the outcome of the war in eastern Ukraine to look like, because it will look like Chechnya."

https://twitter.com/anneapplebaum/status/1538619171906387968?s=20&t=bK9WLyF_...

https://twitter.com/markomihkelson/status/1538867926194962432?s=20&t=Js0eU_v...

[bilaps]

https://twitter.com/konrad_muzyka/status/1538996434342658055

Also there is increasing chatter that Russian response to oil rig attacks from Ukraine will be in the next few days or even tonight and that Ukraine's infrastructure or decision making centers in Kyiv will be hit.

[Storr]

I wonder how much the advance towards Kherson is increasing Ukrainian partisan and resistance activity. Like, if I was in a city that enemies held and my army was just 15 km out, I think that would be the time to get together with the boys and fight back behind enemy lines to make it easier on the army coming forward.

Assuming this is true (it sounds like something from a WWII movie, so I'm skeptical), it would indicate a much bolder type of partisan activity. This would align with your theory of increased resistance activity in the Kherson area as Ukraine has advanced closer to the city.

All of the partisan activity I've seen reported up until now has involved bombings (of cars, homes, police stations). You can be miles away by the time your homemade bomb goes off. This is obviously not true if you're shooting Russian soldiers at cafes.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1538841200177954817?s=20&t=bK9WLy...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/UKDefJournal/status/1537830039273803777

It could prove consequential if other armies follow suit, although the value of training is somewhat limited by the volatility of the Ukrainian Army (casualties, the eclectic and shifting mix of equipment used, objectives, etc.).

In a war of attrition, the limitless reserve of British government scandals is proving to be a reliable boon for Ukraine.

Doesn't hurt that aiding Ukraine has basically zero political downsides for Boris either.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/konrad_muzyka/status/1538996434342658055

Also there is increasing chatter that Russian response to oil rig attacks from Ukraine will be in the next few days or even tonight and that Ukraine's infrastructure or decision making centers in Kyiv will be hit.

Yep. It's definitely not looking good for Ukraine in Lysychansk and Severodonetsk. The Ukrainians can hold out for a while with the Bakhmut - Lysychansk T1302 highway being cut, as has been reported to have occurred near Berestove and/or Bilohorivka. But, it's going to be significantly more difficult to supply the units there than it already is. This is because the remaining Ukrainian held route to Lysychansk includes a 15 kilometer section of unpaved gravel road from Siversk to a junction with the T1302 near Zolotarivka.

https://twitter.com/serhey_hayday/status/1538966842366115840?s=20&t=d9jbzKlB...

[CumbrianLefty]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-restrict-russian-books-music-latest-cultural-break-moscow-2022-06-19/

"Ukraine to restrict Russian books, music in latest cultural break from Moscow"

Wasn't this flagged some time ago?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-restrict-russian-books-music-latest-cultural-break-moscow-2022-06-19/

"Ukraine to restrict Russian books, music in latest cultural break from Moscow"

Wasn't this flagged some time ago?

Flagged?

[Torie]

A long article in the NYT of interest. The US analysts think the meat grinder as Ukraine gets better weapons will grind down into a stalemate, but that Russia will take the rest of Luhansk.

"Russia is likely to end up with more territory, they said, but neither side will gain full control of the region as a depleted Russian military faces an opponent armed with increasingly sophisticated weapons."

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/21/us/politics/russia-ukraine-east-war.html

[Person Man]

A long article in the NYT of interest. The US analysts think the meat grinder as Ukraine gets better weapons will grind down into a stalemate, but that Russia will take the rest of Luhansk.

"Russia is likely to end up with more territory, they said, but neither side will gain full control of the region as a depleted Russian military faces an opponent armed with increasingly sophisticated weapons."

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/21/us/politics/russia-ukraine-east-war.html

As long as Ukraine keeps Odessa and Mykolaiv, and bruise up Russia in the East, it could buy enough time to shut Russia down long term. Hopefully Ukraine gets back Kherson.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1539190547352788994?s=20&t=qh8fK_ymJIRwVP...

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1539190547352788994?s=20&t=qh8fK_ymJIRwVP...

This is literally like the WWI Western Front after the Schlieffen Plan didn't work.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/konrad_muzyka/status/1538996434342658055

Also there is increasing chatter that Russian response to oil rig attacks from Ukraine will be in the next few days or even tonight and that Ukraine's infrastructure or decision making centers in Kyiv will be hit.

https://twitter.com/The_Lookout_N/status/1539298083456131074?s=20&t=qh8fK_ym...

[Storr]

Something to keep an eye on. Slovak MiG-29s being given to Ukraine was previously discussed earlier in the war. Slovakia wants the agreements to protect its airspace because its replacement for their 12 MiG-29s, 14 F-16V fighters ordered in 2018, will not start arriving until 2024.

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1539270963505901568?s=20&t=qh8fK_ymJIR...

https://www.reuters.com/world/slovakia-get-new-f-16-fighter-jets-year-later-2022-03-10/

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/OstapYarysh/status/1538916763399864321

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/OstapYarysh/status/1538916763399864321

This is probably just copium - and really toxic copium that's bad for Russia's reputation in the developing world, where it isn't (yet) as uniformly in tatters as it is in Europe. If people starve, it'll be in countries that aren't sanctioning Russian grain, and should those people try to flee to Europe, European governments will either have the capacity to take them in or (should political pressure be too high) access to more infrastructure than ever before to heartlessly turn them back. A gas crisis in winter could well lead to reductions in sanctions, but I don't think ending European sanctions on Russia will be the primary release valve for political tension caused by famine.