Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

A long article in the NYT of interest. The US analysts think the meat grinder as Ukraine gets better weapons will grind down into a stalemate, but that Russia will take the rest of Luhansk.

"Russia is likely to end up with more territory, they said, but neither side will gain full control of the region as a depleted Russian military faces an opponent armed with increasingly sophisticated weapons."

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/21/us/politics/russia-ukraine-east-war.html

Ukraine says they will start a big counteroffensive in August after the Russians have run out of steam in the Donbass. By July/August the Western military aid will really start to make a difference. A stalemate is not enough, they need to drive the Russians back to the pre war border.

[Badger]

https://mobile.twitter.com/AggregateOsint/status/1537995775703060481

So many places taken on this twitter offensive, yet no single proof or video from inside those settlements.

What went wrong that lead you to rooting on a country that is rounding up civilians and shooting them in the back of the head?
Edit: oh btw
https://mobile.twitter.com/AggregateOsint/status/1537995782745272321

What amuses me greatly is people who actualy beleive there is something like black and white in a war. One side is totally bad, the orcs as they call them and others are peaceful citizens, freedom fighters etc

Yeah, but if you attend yourself for reality in this situation even remotely it'd be pretty hard not to got to see one side as decidedly, vastly more evil than the other.

[Badger]

What amuses me greatly is people who actually believe there is something like black and white in a war. One side is totally bad, the orcs as they call them and others are peaceful citizens, freedom fighters etc

If that amuses you, you got a sick sense of humor.

Not black and white, but a lot closer to it than 90% of wars. When you got an authoritarian great power starting a war of conquest against a smaller and weaker neighbor they'll of course be viewed as the bad guys, once their soldiers start murdering, raping and looting that impression will be confirmed. A few examples of defenders torturing or killing POWs and other nasty stuff won't change that.

There are undoubtedly some black n' whiters, but mostly people recognize that Ukraine has its flaws. It's more that we think the Ukrainians have been admirably restrained compared to what one would have expected given the Russian atrocities.

But black or white is exactly what you're getting from western media. You won't here there anything about shelling of residential buildings in Donetsk and civilians getting killed there especialy in the last week or so even though shelling has basicaly started in 2014 and never ended.

Yes, Russians are agressors here, no doubt about that. But the war in Ukraine didn't start on Feb 24th. Someone actually wrote here the biggest truth accidentaly. Zelensky was elected as a candidate of peace, not as a war hawk but he governed as a war hawk. He didn't fulfill Minsk agreement for example.

Russian bot says what?

[Badger]

Girkin is full of BS, there is no reality in his words.

Pot, Kettle, and all that

[Person Man]

What amuses me greatly is people who actually believe there is something like black and white in a war. One side is totally bad, the orcs as they call them and others are peaceful citizens, freedom fighters etc

If that amuses you, you got a sick sense of humor.

Not black and white, but a lot closer to it than 90% of wars. When you got an authoritarian great power starting a war of conquest against a smaller and weaker neighbor they'll of course be viewed as the bad guys, once their soldiers start murdering, raping and looting that impression will be confirmed. A few examples of defenders torturing or killing POWs and other nasty stuff won't change that.

There are undoubtedly some black n' whiters, but mostly people recognize that Ukraine has its flaws. It's more that we think the Ukrainians have been admirably restrained compared to what one would have expected given the Russian atrocities.

But black or white is exactly what you're getting from western media. You won't here there anything about shelling of residential buildings in Donetsk and civilians getting killed there especialy in the last week or so even though shelling has basicaly started in 2014 and never ended.

Yes, Russians are agressors here, no doubt about that. But the war in Ukraine didn't start on Feb 24th. Someone actually wrote here the biggest truth accidentaly. Zelensky was elected as a candidate of peace, not as a war hawk but he governed as a war hawk. He didn't fulfill Minsk agreement for example.

Russian bot says what?

I call bots butts. He’s a Russian butt.

[The Dowager Mod]

Intense stuff. 
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1539429099453796354

[Storr]

Intense stuff.  
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1539429099453796354

Reportedly this was the primary ammo storage site for the LPR. 

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1539427943562215427?s=20&t=hsW23fa...

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1539434629765136385?s=20&t=hsW23fa...

[Logical]

Ukrainian attack on a Russian refinery in Rostov
https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/1539513611344826368

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Ukrainian attack on a Russian refinery in Rostov
https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/1539513611344826368

There is some debate over the drone’s origin.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1539526178318450689

Ukraine has captured a few Russian drones and may have been able to press some into service, but the cause could also be an accident, a false flag or Russian partisan warfare.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Various reports that the planned delivery of 4 Gray Eagle drones (likely to the first of a larger batch) has allegedly been suspended. The most reliable sources don't go quite this far, but they suggest suspension may be imminent:

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1539333321007812608
The Bayraktar TB2 unit cost is not public but most open sources claim it is at most $5m, at least 8 times cheaper than a Gray Eagle. Given the rate at which they were receiving these drones before and in the early phase of the war, it is likely Ukraine has not received its full order of Bayraktars from Turkey yet - I would guess supply is limited by rate of production.

Bayraktars have apparently become harder to use in offensive roles (outside of supporting advances by flying near the frontlines) as Russia's air defence networks in Ukraine have grown denser, and they seem especially well adapted to Russian AD (for drones) to begin with. It's quite possible the Gray Eagle would be even more vulnerable and some US officials are concerned about its technology being captured by Russia, despite it being in service in 2004.

Some Ukrainian officials argue Gray Eagles would not be cost-effective given all these limitations and are pushing for training their pilots on F-15 and F-16 jets instead. Unfortunately, I think Biden is likely to ignore this request - if the Gray Eagle technology is considered too sensitive to be lost, the USA could instead supply the Predator, an older (and now cheaper) iteration. Its military no longer has any use for these, yet the country still possesses hundreds and hasn't found many buyers for the system; I suspect the Bayraktar TB2 will now devastate its remaining market share. As I've mentioned elsewhere, either the CIA keeps the Predators or Ukraine gets them.

[bilaps]

Insults keep coming, I guess it's allowed around here to insult someone but that's common case when you don't have arguments.

In the meantime, not all fake offensives on Kherson, and yellow dots on the fake maps can negate one thing. Russia is slowly winning this war. Lisychansk will soon be cut off and Ukrainians strategy is pretty clear now. They are using soldiers as a cannon fodder in an attempt to slow down Russian advances. We'll see what will that do for their morale. But so far results aren't great.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/mdmitri91/status/1539593906630926338?s=20&t=gms90V-1cL3l...

[CumbrianLefty]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-restrict-russian-books-music-latest-cultural-break-moscow-2022-06-19/

"Ukraine to restrict Russian books, music in latest cultural break from Moscow"

Wasn't this flagged some time ago?

Flagged?

As in "flagged up" - ie I don't think these proposals are new.

[jaichind]

https://www.politico.eu/article/bulgarian-pm-petkov-government-lose-no-confidence-vote/

"Bulgaria’s Petkov points finger at mafia and Russia as government collapses"

Just like in 2016 when Putin put Trump over the top now Putin is up to his old tricks again.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://www.politico.eu/article/bulgarian-pm-petkov-government-lose-no-confidence-vote/

"Bulgaria’s Petkov points finger at mafia and Russia as government collapses"

Just like in 2016 when Putin put Trump over the top now Putin is up to his old tricks again.

Russia actually has a fair amount of influence in Bulgaria and singled it out for gas restirctions that most of (more hostile) EU states didn’t experience.

As for the mafia accusations - I don’t know how credible these are, but the biggest opposition party that isn’t pro-Russian was removed from power because of its corruption. It’s a running theme in Bulgarian politics.

[All Along The Watchtower]

https://twitter.com/OstapYarysh/status/1538916763399864321

This is probably just copium - and really toxic copium that's bad for Russia's reputation in the developing world, where it isn't (yet) as uniformly in tatters as it is in Europe. If people starve, it'll be in countries that aren't sanctioning Russian grain, and should those people try to flee to Europe, European governments will either have the capacity to take them in or (should political pressure be too high) access to more infrastructure than ever before to heartlessly turn them back. A gas crisis in winter could well lead to reductions in sanctions, but I don't think ending European sanctions on Russia will be the primary release valve for political tension caused by famine.

And furthermore, if I were a Russian government official I would be more focused on the coming fall and winter within Russia as the effect of sanctions really starts to bite the country.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

UK intelligence says Russia has lost 55% of its forces in Donbas: https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/1629221/russia-outdated-weapons-donbas-dpr-ukraine-forces-ministry-defence-update

[All Along The Watchtower]

UK intelligence says Russia has lost 55% of its forces in Donbas: https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/1629221/russia-outdated-weapons-donbas-dpr-ukraine-forces-ministry-defence-update

b-b-b-but Russia is winning, Ukraine can't go on much longer, they must negotiate with Mr. Putin who is a very reasonable man who will listen to them etc.

[bilaps]

UK intelligence says Russia has lost 55% of its forces in Donbas: https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/1629221/russia-outdated-weapons-donbas-dpr-ukraine-forces-ministry-defence-update

b-b-b-but Russia is winning, Ukraine can't go on much longer, they must negotiate with Mr. Putin who is a very reasonable man who will listen to them etc.

Imagine that you beleive UK intelligence as some sort of neutral observer in the conflict. Also they didn't even say Russia has lost 55% of its troops, rather it was DNR. And then, if you would actually beleive this, imagine how many UKR lost of its troops since they're retreating and losing ground

[All Along The Watchtower]

UK intelligence says Russia has lost 55% of its forces in Donbas: https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/1629221/russia-outdated-weapons-donbas-dpr-ukraine-forces-ministry-defence-update

b-b-b-but Russia is winning, Ukraine can't go on much longer, they must negotiate with Mr. Putin who is a very reasonable man who will listen to them etc.

Imagine that you beleive UK intelligence as some sort of neutral observer in the conflict. Also they didn't even say Russia has lost 55% of its troops, rather it was DNR. And then, if you would actually beleive this, imagine how many UKR lost of its troops since they're retreating and losing ground

I never said that Russia lost 55% of its troops. It’s actually worse for Russia if the fake republics are losing lots of troops, because that means they need to get more directly involved militarily, which in the short term means some slow Russian gains in the Donbas but in the long term means a sustained Russian occupation, which a globally weakened Russia cannot possibly sustain.

Ukrainians won’t surrender regardless of how many of them might die—you can’t put a price on freedom from a brutal aggressor—so it’s a question of how many Russian, Belarusian, and Russian-backed Ukrainian soldiers are going to be expended on behalf of Putin’s ego and Russian nationalist/neo-imperialist pride in general. That is what matters, not whatever “wins” that the Russian side has in the Donbas. And that’s not to mention  the other consequences for Russia—most importantly, that generations of Ukrainians will neither forgive nor forget what has been done to them.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The figure is not the UK’s estimate - it was reposted by the UK, but it is actually the number publicly released by the DPR gang and most likely an undercount in real terms.

In percentage terms, it is 55% of the DPR army prior to the war, but (unlike Russia) the LDPR gangs fully mobilised their populations when the war started in earnest. Of course, the press-ganged conscripts aren’t as useful as the Donbas War veterans but the army would probably be several times larger than it was at the start of the invasion if the DPR figures were true. What matters more is probably how many of these veterans they’ve lost within these overall casualties.

[Storr]

Intense stuff.  
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1539429099453796354

Reportedly this was the primary ammo storage site for the LPR. 

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1539427943562215427?s=20&t=hsW23fa...

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1539434629765136385?s=20&t=hsW23fa...

oof

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1539689831311331328?s=20&t=i2_1vRD...

[Badger]

UK intelligence says Russia has lost 55% of its forces in Donbas: https://www.express.co.uk/news/science/1629221/russia-outdated-weapons-donbas-dpr-ukraine-forces-ministry-defence-update

b-b-b-but Russia is winning, Ukraine can't go on much longer, they must negotiate with Mr. Putin who is a very reasonable man who will listen to them etc.

Imagine that you beleive UK intelligence as some sort of neutral observer in the conflict. Also they didn't even say Russia has lost 55% of its troops, rather it was DNR. And then, if you would actually beleive this, imagine how many UKR lost of its troops since they're retreating and losing ground

Considering most of your profoundly silly and intellectually lazy posts in this thread have no better Source than " dude, just trust me", you're suffering from a severe case of glass houses syndrome.

[Storr]

Afaik, Kovalyov is the highest profile Ukrainian in Kherson Oblast to switch sides besides Volodymyr Saldo (former MP and Kherson mayor) who's the current head of the "Military-Civilian Administration".

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1539708761799016449?s=20&t=i2_1vR...

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Insults keep coming, I guess it's allowed around here to insult someone but that's common case when you don't have arguments.

In the meantime, not all fake offensives on Kherson, and yellow dots on the fake maps can negate one thing. Russia is slowly winning this war. Lisychansk will soon be cut off and Ukrainians strategy is pretty clear now. They are using soldiers as a cannon fodder in an attempt to slow down Russian advances. We'll see what will that do for their morale. But so far results aren't great.

Using soldiers as cannon fodder to slow down military advances from neighboring authoritarian imperialist powers has a long and proud history in that part of the world. Russia would know.