Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-restrict-russian-books-music-latest-cultural-break-moscow-2022-06-19/

"Ukraine to restrict Russian books, music in latest cultural break from Moscow"

Wasn't this flagged some time ago?

Flagged?

As in "flagged up" - ie I don't think these proposals are new.

Ah. Makes sense.

[Woody]

Zolote pocket cut off.

Some Ukrainian sources claiming they managed to withdraw from the area before the Russians encircled the area.. if true, the road to attack Lysychansk from the south without worrying about any river crossings is completely open.

https://mobile.twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1539760228329218049

[Logical]

Ukrainian attack on a Russian refinery in Rostov
https://twitter.com/Blue_Sauron/status/1539513611344826368

The drone used in the attack has been identified as a cheap $10k Chinese drone you can buy on Aliexpress. It's actually quite worrying when you think of their potential use by terrorist groups in the future. An attack by a swarm of cheap undetectable kamikaze drones on critical infrastructure will be disastrous.

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/Guderian_Xaba/status/1539840835088441345?cxt=HHwWgoCzoZjFzt4...

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Afaik, Kovalyov is the highest profile Ukrainian in Kherson Oblast to switch sides besides Volodymyr Saldo (former MP and Kherson mayor) who's the current head of the "Military-Civilian Administration".

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1539708761799016449?s=20&t=i2_1vR...

He's the civilian head. There's a separate military head (a Russian general). I only recently found out, but there is a unified post for the deputy civilian-military head, and the guy they put in charge (Kirill Stremusov) has no credentials outside of being a conspiracy Youtuber who caught controversy after swinging his baby daughter around his head like a lasso in one of his videos. It doesn't seem a promising start to the occupation, even from a colonial perspective.

[jaichind]

I never said that Russia lost 55% of its troops. It’s actually worse for Russia if the fake republics are losing lots of troops, because that means they need to get more directly involved militarily, which in the short term means some slow Russian gains in the Donbas but in the long term means a sustained Russian occupation, which a globally weakened Russia cannot possibly sustain.

Ukrainians won’t surrender regardless of how many of them might die—you can’t put a price on freedom from a brutal aggressor—so it’s a question of how many Russian, Belarusian, and Russian-backed Ukrainian soldiers are going to be expended on behalf of Putin’s ego and Russian nationalist/neo-imperialist pride in general. That is what matters, not whatever “wins” that the Russian side has in the Donbas. And that’s not to mention  the other consequences for Russia—most importantly, that generations of Ukrainians will neither forgive nor forget what has been done to them.

I think it is much more important to track, if possible, the losses of trained troops on both sides.  The Ukraine forces on the Eastern front comprise a large part of trained troops they had which were trained with the help of the West and well dug in.  It is not clear how much that trained force is left.  Same on the Russian side especially Russia is not using conscripts except for the men mobilized by the Donetsk Republics which I am sure is much lower combat effectiveness.  In fact, since the war has become an artillery dual it might make even more sense to track how much artillery ammunition has been used up and what is the burn rate.  We know that the Russian burn rate is a lot higher but they had huge stockpiles and seem to be able to produce more.  It is not clear how much Ukraine has left and the run rate of Western supplies in relation to their burn rate.

[Woody]

Russians at the outskirts to the south of Lysychansk.. some small Ukrainian forces (apparently) left in the pocket, unclear how many.

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1539916157750312960?cxt=HHwWgIC86cXl8N4qA...
https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1539911209801187333?cxt=HHwWioC83cTF7t4qA...
https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1539897147159715840?cxt=HHwWgIC98f2S6N4qA...
https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1539900027648331778?cxt=HHwWhMC-mdO66d4qA...

[jaichind]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/admiral-chief-of-the-defence-staff-ukraine-uk-armed-forces-government-b2106807.html

5-10 years to replace weapons the UK has sent to Ukraine, says armed forces chief.

5-10 years to replace weapons the UK has sent to Ukraine, says armed forces chief. We're running out of munitions and can't replace them in time.

Putin's attempt to demilitarize Ukraine has a mixed record at best so far but they seem to have done a good job to demilitarize the UK.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/admiral-chief-of-the-defence-staff-ukraine-uk-armed-forces-government-b2106807.html

5-10 years to replace weapons the UK has sent to Ukraine, says armed forces chief.

5-10 years to replace weapons the UK has sent to Ukraine, says armed forces chief. We're running out of munitions and can't replace them in time.

Putin's attempt to demilitarize Ukraine has a mixed record at best so far but they seem to have done a good job to demilitarize the UK.

That's not quite what he said.

Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, who took over as Chief of the Defence Staff in November 2021, said even replacing less sophisticated weapons sent to Ukraine could take “several years” due to constraints on the UK’s industrial capacity.

Answering questions from the Lords International Relations and Defence Committee on Wednesday, Admiral Radakin also said it could take “five to 10 years” before the UK could deploy a division with the capabilities to fight alongside US forces.

He said: “We could throw out a division now, but it’s not the one we would want.”

I.e. it might take several years to replenish some stocks, and it could take longer to buy the priorities on his shopping list. These are two different things, and army generals probably still want the UK to buy more stuff per division than they had before the war.

[CumbrianLefty]

Yes, defence chiefs lobbying for more defence spending isn't "hold the front page" territory really.

[bilaps]

The figure is not the UK’s estimate - it was reposted by the UK, but it is actually the number publicly released by the DPR gang and most likely an undercount in real terms.

In percentage terms, it is 55% of the DPR army prior to the war, but (unlike Russia) the LDPR gangs fully mobilised their populations when the war started in earnest. Of course, the press-ganged conscripts aren’t as useful as the Donbas War veterans but the army would probably be several times larger than it was at the start of the invasion if the DPR figures were true. What matters more is probably how many of these veterans they’ve lost within these overall casualties.

So, it's basicaly fake news because it doesn't mention that mobilizied force?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The figure is not the UK’s estimate - it was reposted by the UK, but it is actually the number publicly released by the DPR gang and most likely an undercount in real terms.

In percentage terms, it is 55% of the DPR army prior to the war, but (unlike Russia) the LDPR gangs fully mobilised their populations when the war started in earnest. Of course, the press-ganged conscripts aren’t as useful as the Donbas War veterans but the army would probably be several times larger than it was at the start of the invasion if the DPR figures were true. What matters more is probably how many of these veterans they’ve lost within these overall casualties.

So, it's basicaly fake news because it doesn't mention that mobilizied force?

No. The UK MoD statement notes the importance of reserve units and refers to 55% of the original DPR force. It reads:

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1539473242678779905
It's not fake news, but I'd argue there's some spin in the statement.

[bilaps]

The figure is not the UK’s estimate - it was reposted by the UK, but it is actually the number publicly released by the DPR gang and most likely an undercount in real terms.

In percentage terms, it is 55% of the DPR army prior to the war, but (unlike Russia) the LDPR gangs fully mobilised their populations when the war started in earnest. Of course, the press-ganged conscripts aren’t as useful as the Donbas War veterans but the army would probably be several times larger than it was at the start of the invasion if the DPR figures were true. What matters more is probably how many of these veterans they’ve lost within these overall casualties.

So, it's basicaly fake news because it doesn't mention that mobilizied force?

No. The UK MoD statement notes the importance of reserve units and refers to 55% of the original DPR force. It reads:

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1539473242678779905
It's not fake news, but I'd argue there's some spin in the statement.

Ok, I could agree on that.

One question, since you're from UK and you follow this war in depth. Would you agree that UK Intelligence updates throughout the war were propaganda on let's say basicaly RT level?

[Logical]

The figure is not the UK’s estimate - it was reposted by the UK, but it is actually the number publicly released by the DPR gang and most likely an undercount in real terms.

In percentage terms, it is 55% of the DPR army prior to the war, but (unlike Russia) the LDPR gangs fully mobilised their populations when the war started in earnest. Of course, the press-ganged conscripts aren’t as useful as the Donbas War veterans but the army would probably be several times larger than it was at the start of the invasion if the DPR figures were true. What matters more is probably how many of these veterans they’ve lost within these overall casualties.

So, it's basicaly fake news because it doesn't mention that mobilizied force?

No. The UK MoD statement notes the importance of reserve units and refers to 55% of the original DPR force. It reads:

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1539473242678779905
It's not fake news, but I'd argue there's some spin in the statement.

Ok, I could agree on that.

One question, since you're from UK and you follow this war in depth. Would you agree that UK Intelligence updates throughout the war were propaganda on let's say basicaly RT level?

RT: We captured 4 NATO generals underneath Azovstal! Hunter Biden's Ukrainian biolabs spread COVID with birds! Moskva capsized in a storm!

UK MoD: We used official DNR casualty figures to extrapolate on the full extent of losses among Russian proxy forces.

You: This is the same ackshully

[Storr]

Afaik, Kovalyov is the highest profile Ukrainian in Kherson Oblast to switch sides besides Volodymyr Saldo (former MP and Kherson mayor) who's the current head of the "Military-Civilian Administration".

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1539708761799016449?s=20&t=i2_1vR...

It seems these are two separate incidents and not a case of confusing which collaborator's vehicle was targeted. I'm thinking this because the vehicle in the video below was clearly ambushed with small arms and not blown up with a bomb or mine as reported with Kovalov's car.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1539918302142775296?s=20&t=_znTw0E1QEGvme...

[Logical]

The figure is not the UK’s estimate - it was reposted by the UK, but it is actually the number publicly released by the DPR gang and most likely an undercount in real terms.

In percentage terms, it is 55% of the DPR army prior to the war, but (unlike Russia) the LDPR gangs fully mobilised their populations when the war started in earnest. Of course, the press-ganged conscripts aren’t as useful as the Donbas War veterans but the army would probably be several times larger than it was at the start of the invasion if the DPR figures were true. What matters more is probably how many of these veterans they’ve lost within these overall casualties.

So, it's basicaly fake news because it doesn't mention that mobilizied force?

No. The UK MoD statement notes the importance of reserve units and refers to 55% of the original DPR force. It reads:

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1539473242678779905
It's not fake news, but I'd argue there's some spin in the statement.

Ok, I could agree on that.

One question, since you're from UK and you follow this war in depth. Would you agree that UK Intelligence updates throughout the war were propaganda on let's say basicaly RT level?

RT: We captured 4 NATO generals underneath Azovstal! Hunter Biden's Ukrainian biolabs spread COVID with birds! Moskva capsized in a storm!

UK MoD: We used official DNR casualty figures to extrapolate on the full extent of losses among Russian proxy forces.

You: This is the same ackshully

I didn't ask you. For a reason obviously.

It's the level of thoughtfulness your apologia deserves.

[Omega21]

Well, the past 24 hours could have gone better for the Ukrainians.

Russians entered Zolote. Also seen some videos of UA straggler troops surrendering.

https://twitter.com/200_zoka/status/1539972650914631681

On top of that, Lysychansk has been reportedly cut off from resupply routes. All routes are either RU held or under constant shelling. This is not yet 100% confirmed but does not seem unrealistic from what we know ATM.

The new front line seems to be on the outskirts of the city.

If the city is fully enveloped & the UA forces there don't pull out in time, Russia might be able to take a good amount of experienced UA troops out of action.

https://twitter.com/cpimentel986/status/1539956732545404929

[jaichind]

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/india/indian-retail-chains-in-russia-in-offing-russian-it-cos-expanding-presence-in-india-putin/articleshow/92399513.cms

"Indian retail chains in Russia in offing; Russian IT cos expanding presence in India: Vladimir Putin"

Plans to have Indian retail chains to operate in Russia.  As I mentioned before the strength of RUB is a sign of Russian economic weakness where imports are too low.  Increasing Indian retail imports is a way to close this gap

[jaichind]

https://multipolarista.com/2022/06/22/africa-zelensky-call-neutrality-ukraine/

"Only 4 of 55 African leaders attend Zelensky call, showing neutrality on Ukraine and Russia"

France and Germany pressured African Union leaders for months to join a brief Zoom call with Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky. 51 of 55 African heads of state (93%) boycotted the meeting, showing clear neutrality over the Western proxy war with Russia.

It seems African countries are not blaming Russia for the current food export impasse or at least not openly.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://multipolarista.com/2022/06/22/africa-zelensky-call-neutrality-ukraine/

"Only 4 of 55 African leaders attend Zelensky call, showing neutrality on Ukraine and Russia"

France and Germany pressured African Union leaders for months to join a brief Zoom call with Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky. 51 of 55 African heads of state (93%) boycotted the meeting, showing clear neutrality over the Western proxy war with Russia.

It seems African countries are not blaming Russia for the current food export impasse or at least not openly.

In the short term, openly opposing Russia (beyond, perhaps, criticism) risks putting countries in need of grain to the back of a queue. Ukraine can no longer supply it in the short term and Russia has a bigger - but still insufficient - harvest thanks to what it's stolen. There will be a shortage and the AU is not cohesive enough to form a united front, so famine will inevitably be more acute in some countries than others depending on who buys first. There will be no buyers' cartel in Africa, let alone globally.

In the long term, trying to wage war on Europe by bringing famine to countries which relied on Ukrainian grain probably isn't going to do much for Russia in these countries. Ukrainian ports aren't likely to remain closed indefinitely and a deliberately induced famine this year may lead to better planning/sourcing/planting elsewhere in future years.

[jaichind]

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/06/22/us-embassy-in-moscow-gets-new-address-named-after-ukraine-separatists-a78071

"U.S. Embassy in Moscow Gets New Address, Named After Ukraine Separatists"

Reminds me of PRC 1966 during the Cultural Revolution where the street of the USSR embassy in Beijing was renamed "Anti-Revisionism Road"

[jaichind]

It seems the battle in Luhansk is turning in Russia's favor.  It seems they will achieve victory here in the coming weeks.   I have to assume that after this they will target the rest of Donetsk which like Luhansk is heavily fortified.   Assuming they can win there I assume the targets after that would be: Kharkov, Odesa, Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk which they might to get to late in the Summer.  I think Russia at best and try to take 2 out of the 4 but it is unlikely they can take all 4.  My impression that within Russia itself there is a lot of pressure to take Odesa.  Assuming Russia can win the battle for Donetsk  it will be interesting to see what they focus on after that.

[It’s so Joever]

It seems the battle in Luhansk is turning in Russia's favor.  It seems they will achieve victory here in the coming weeks.   I have to assume that after this they will target the rest of Donetsk which like Luhansk is heavily fortified.   Assuming they can win there I assume the targets after that would be: Kharkov, Odesa, Zaporizhzhia and Dnipropetrovsk which they might to get to late in the Summer.  I think Russia at best and try to take 2 out of the 4 but it is unlikely they can take all 4.  My impression that within Russia itself there is a lot of pressure to take Odesa.  Assuming Russia can win the battle for Donetsk  it will be interesting to see what they focus on after that.

Taking Odessa would probably require taking Mykolaiv.

[President Johnson]

Ukraine and Moldova are a step closer to EU membership. This is great news, though both still have work to do, especially through fighting corruption and the rule of law.

https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1540039333117394948

https://twitter.com/terischultz/status/1540046466479185921

[Storr]

One of the most pro-Ukrainian accounts I follow admits there was a "rear guard" left behind in Zolote and/or Toshkivka which allowed the rest of the Ukrainian troops to leave the pocket.

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1540038408474660866?s=20&t=bSlbDAxuIq...

https://twitter.com/WarMonitor3/status/1539951848718729217?s=20&t=bSlbDAxuIq...