GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

To those in the know: are we likely to see any big discrepancies from the general to the special in terms of county margins? (As in counties shifting greatly from November 8th to this Toozdee?)

Use a no. 2 pencil, and show your work for partial credit

My general thinking is suburban Atlanta, where the GOP vote being Pro-Kemp compared to Pro-Walker was likely the greatest, Trump likely doesn't help there either   Only potential caveat to that is, those are likely higher propensity voters as opposed to a more rural part of the state.

I think that this is the place we see a lot of Walker first round voters stay home or outright switch to Warnock.

Still underestimate Biden voters lol Rs are voting for WARNOCK that voted for Kemp just like Rs voted for Kelly and Fetterman

Do you know why Ds are overperforning because Gas prices are 3.75, Biden is likely to do better than he did than 2020 because Indies that voted Trump in 20 will switch over to Biden power of Incumbent, just like Brown, Tester and Manchin have a better chance than Ryan, DEMINGS and Beasley power of Incumbent

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1599524755522068480

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1599524755522068480

That last line WAS funny. LOL.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1599524755522068480

* Starts to count the number of pronouns in the quote, gives up *

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As I said before Ds always appeal to women Rs don't always they appeal to white women but not minority women that's been their problem since the Clarence Thomas era, because Vance, Johnson, Budd, DeSantis gotten white women but Walker, Masters, LAXALT, Hobbs failed to get blk or Latino women

Just like Phil Scott without White females can't win in D states but they are compassionate Conservative not Tories that associates with Proud Boys and Southern Strategy

Part of it is Obamacare and SSA and Medicare more females under 65 are on entitlements than men due to single parent household

Look at Harris and KBJ and even Bush W had Condi Rice whom have Rs appointed as a blk female head of state no one and that's why Walker is losing due to blk females on account of Abortion he is pro life

[GeorgiaModerate]

The good folks at Split Ticket are back:

https://twitter.com/lxeagle17/status/1599782205420900352

From the article, which is well worth reading:

We believe that while both candidates have a shot at winning this election, Raphael Warnock is the clear favorite based on the data we do have, a story reflected by both the polls and the early vote data. Our best estimate of the early vote is that Warnock leads by about 15 points right now, with a raw vote lead of around 280K. While we expect the Republicans to win big on election day, we do not think it will be enough to carry them to a win, even as we expect election day turnout to exceed 1.2M and carry the total votes cast up to roughly 3.05M votes (which would be astounding for a runoff and would be ~80% of the November total).

They also have an interactive county map at https://rpubs.com/splitticket/georgia-runoff.  For a laugh, hover over Washington County.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The good folks at Split Ticket are back:

https://twitter.com/lxeagle17/status/1599782205420900352

From the article, which is well worth reading:

We believe that while both candidates have a shot at winning this election, Raphael Warnock is the clear favorite based on the data we do have, a story reflected by both the polls and the early vote data. Our best estimate of the early vote is that Warnock leads by about 15 points right now, with a raw vote lead of around 280K. While we expect the Republicans to win big on election day, we do not think it will be enough to carry them to a win, even as we expect election day turnout to exceed 1.2M and carry the total votes cast up to roughly 3.05M votes (which would be astounding for a runoff and would be ~80% of the November total).

They also have an interactive county map at https://rpubs.com/splitticket/georgia-runoff.  For a laugh, hover over Washington County.

Damn, the model has Warnock cracking 60% in every county in the Atlanta bubble, minus Fayette. Hard to see how the state doesn't turn out to be reliably democratic by the end of the decade.

[Dani Rose]

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1599524755522068480

Rejecting fundamental parts of the English language to own the libs?

[Spectator]

Something to keep an eye on in addition to obviously suburban Atlanta is the micropolitan areas around places like Macon and Augusta. It's flown a bit under the radar, but Democrats have made serious inroads in the Republican suburbs of these cities, notably Houston County and Columbia County. Watching tomorrow to see if Warnock can make Houston County a single digit affair and if he can hit 40% in Columbia County.

[Tintrlvr]

Something to keep an eye on in addition to obviously suburban Atlanta is the micropolitan areas around places like Macon and Augusta. It's flown a bit under the radar, but Democrats have made serious inroads in the Republican suburbs of these cities, notably Houston County and Columbia County. Watching tomorrow to see if Warnock can make Houston County a single digit affair and if he can hit 40% in Columbia County.

Houston County isn't really suburban, is it? I thought Warner Robins was basically its own separate mini-metro focused on Robins Air Force Base. The military focus is what has made it historically Republican. Of course, it should be trending D anyway similar to other air force-focused cities such as Colorado Springs.

Oconee County is another one to watch for this trend alongside Columbia County, though.

[Spectator]

Something to keep an eye on in addition to obviously suburban Atlanta is the micropolitan areas around places like Macon and Augusta. It's flown a bit under the radar, but Democrats have made serious inroads in the Republican suburbs of these cities, notably Houston County and Columbia County. Watching tomorrow to see if Warnock can make Houston County a single digit affair and if he can hit 40% in Columbia County.

Houston County isn't really suburban, is it? I thought Warner Robins was basically its own separate mini-metro focused on Robins Air Force Base. The military focus is what has made it historically Republican. Of course, it should be trending D anyway similar to other air force-focused cities such as Colorado Springs.

Oconee County is another one to watch for this trend alongside Columbia County, though.

I'd say like many military towns it's very suburban in feel.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

If I get another fcking campaign text from Warnock’s campaign I swear to god.

10+ text messages in the past week… please stop fcking texting me to go vote for Warnock. There’s not even any reasons in any of these text messages.

[xavier110]

If I get another fcking campaign text from Warnock’s campaign I swear to god.

10+ text messages in the past week… please stop fcking texting me to go vote for Warnock. There’s not even any reasons in any of these text messages.

Reply stop and opt out? Lol

[Adam Griffin]

But what if ED/EV turnout looks like it did in the last GA midterm runoff?

Code: (2018 SoS/PSC General Runoff)

In-Person EV 	R+9.70
Vote by Mail 	R+1.88
Election Day 	R+1.82
Provisionals	D+29.00
================
ED Voters  	R+1.74
Early Voters	R+8.30

[GeorgiaModerate]

I get more from Walker's campaign than Warnock's.  I'm unfortunately on both parties' mailing lists due to past voting history.

[Adam Griffin]

Something to keep an eye on in addition to obviously suburban Atlanta is the micropolitan areas around places like Macon and Augusta. It's flown a bit under the radar, but Democrats have made serious inroads in the Republican suburbs of these cities, notably Houston County and Columbia County. Watching tomorrow to see if Warnock can make Houston County a single digit affair and if he can hit 40% in Columbia County.

Counties like this have been sneaking up on Republicans for awhile. There are 6 in particular worth keeping an eye on in the coming years - if not because they will flip, just for the potential shifts in them - that all play a certain role in housing newer suburban/exurban college-educated types in a given metro.

Only 525k people among them (with Houston & Columbia comprising around 60% & Fayette being most of the rest), but an 11-point D shift in 4 years isn't nothing (the rest of the state combined only shifted 5 points by comparison):

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::7f160c19-d55e-467e-8550-e25c29a902ed

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Equality Marriage passed after Eday it's important in blue states that's why Biden is leading in AZ and WARNOCK winning no questions asked SSM hurt Sean Patrick Murphy.or passing and it would of helped Barnes Johnson voted against it, but that's why WARNOCK has gotten a bump

It not that important in terms of men but with Females equality marriage matters , white females were key in red states Rs like DeSantis, Vance getting reelected, if Ryan and Beasley had Equality marriage they would of won more White females enough to win and some white men

But no questions Brown whom is an incumbent will be helped by it

[Gracile]

Sabato's Crystal Ball has moved the Georgia runoff to Lean D from Toss-up ahead of tomorrow's election:

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/georgia-runoff-to-leans-democratic/

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

If I get another fcking campaign text from Warnock’s campaign I swear to god.

10+ text messages in the past week… please stop fcking texting me to go vote for Warnock. There’s not even any reasons in any of these text messages.

Reply stop and opt out? Lol

You are extremely naive if you think that works... are you four years old? I’ve been responding stop and blocking every number and they keep coming. Warnock’s team doesn’t give a rats ass about what you want. My friend and his dad are getting spammed and neither are even eligible to vote.

[wbrocks67]

If I get another fcking campaign text from Warnock’s campaign I swear to god.

10+ text messages in the past week… please stop fcking texting me to go vote for Warnock. There’s not even any reasons in any of these text messages.

Reply stop and opt out? Lol

You are extremely naive if you think that works... are you four years old? I’ve been responding stop and blocking every number and they keep coming. Warnock’s team doesn’t give a rats ass about what you want. My friend and his dad are getting spammed and neither are even eligible to vote.

Okay sis, keep going after Warnock when every single campaign does this. Be a little less transparent next time

[Adam Griffin]

https://twitter.com/adamgriffin/status/1599855473951318017

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

If I get another fcking campaign text from Warnock’s campaign I swear to god.

10+ text messages in the past week… please stop fcking texting me to go vote for Warnock. There’s not even any reasons in any of these text messages.

Reply stop and opt out? Lol

You are extremely naive if you think that works... are you four years old? I’ve been responding stop and blocking every number and they keep coming. Warnock’s team doesn’t give a rats ass about what you want. My friend and his dad are getting spammed and neither are even eligible to vote.

Okay sis, keep going after Warnock when every single campaign does this. Be a little less transparent next time

I have actually not gotten a single text from Walker (probably indicative of the fact that he will lose by 4). Regardless, I am not motivated to go out and vote specifically for Walker, and I’m not sure even annoying campaign texts from Warnock is enough to make me vote.

But seriously, why am I getting so many texts from Warnock with 0 reason why I should vote for him? Shouldn’t he be trying to convince people to vote for him, not just saying “go vote for Warnock”? Is it that hard to say “Warnock helped eliminate student loan debt”?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Also instead of padding your 10.871 posts per day count with useless spam, wbrocks, why don’t you provide solutions for not receiving political spam texts?

[Adam Griffin]

If I get another fcking campaign text from Warnock’s campaign I swear to god.

10+ text messages in the past week… please stop fcking texting me to go vote for Warnock. There’s not even any reasons in any of these text messages.

Reply stop and opt out? Lol

You are extremely naive if you think that works... are you four years old? I’ve been responding stop and blocking every number and they keep coming. Warnock’s team doesn’t give a rats ass about what you want. My friend and his dad are getting spammed and neither are even eligible to vote.

Okay sis, keep going after Warnock when every single campaign does this. Be a little less transparent next time

I have actually not gotten a single text from Walker (probably indicative of the fact that he will lose by 4). Regardless, I am not motivated to go out and vote specifically for Walker, and I’m not sure even annoying campaign texts from Warnock is enough to make me vote.

But seriously, why am I getting so many texts from Warnock with 0 reason why I should vote for him? Shouldn’t he be trying to convince people to vote for him, not just saying “go vote for Warnock”? Is it that hard to say “Warnock helped eliminate student loan debt”?

Almost certainly a combination of your demographic profile and primary voting history. Lists also get passed around like party bottoms as you've mentioned: didn't you engage at some point with your college Democratic chapter? If so, that'd be a big "just blast 'em and don't worry about how they'll vote" indicator if integrated with their campaign data.
 
The campaign has likely taken a calculated risk to some degree based on the fact that Warnock statistically is doing much better with soft Republicans than an average candidate, so even those - if they also check off enough boxes - are likely to get turnout-focused reminders rather than persuasion-based pitches. It's also fairly difficult to persuade anybody to change how they'll vote with a simple text message (whether it's an actual stranger texting you or just mass spam).

[It’s so Joever]

Also instead of padding your 10.871 posts per day count with useless spam, wbrocks, why don’t you provide solutions for not receiving political spam texts?

wBrocks was more right than your sorry butt was this cycle. Speaking of useless posts, weren’t you the so called swing voter you demanded for months that Atlas kiss up to and then threw a fit when we didn’t collectively suck your c**k?
But I get why receiving so many texts is annoying, it’s not usual for you after all. Don’t worry, your phone will be silent soon