When does MI-04 flip?

[Tekken_Guy]

When does MI-04, Bill Huizenga's seat, flip?

[progressive85]

This was 54.4% - 42.5% in 2022 and the D candidate was Joseph Alfonso.  I think this became bluer in redistricting.  It's not completely impossible that it would flip but it's going to require, like PA-10, an excellent candidate from Team Blue.  (I wonder if this district has any Democratic representation in the legislature.)

[Nyvin]

Jessica Swartz seems like a great candidate for the district.   She worked on getting the independent redistricting ballot measure passed and is a good campaigner.

By contrast Huizenga is a bland and boring generic R,  he has a political family name but not much else.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Jessica Swartz seems like a great candidate for the district.   She worked on getting the independent redistricting ballot measure passed and is a good campaigner.

By contrast Huizenga is a bland and boring generic R,  he has a political family name but not much else.

He also might run for senate, which would leave rs with an open primary

[Vosem]

It was double-digit Republican in 2022, which in Michigan only saw a totally ridiculous Democratic turnout advantage and quasi-landslide conditions. My guess is it remains so safe that it will remain Republican until the current set of trends is replaced by a different set of trends. (Something like this is also my opinion on the state of Kansas -- the Democratic trend there is obviously real, but it's so red that the amount of time necessary for the state to actually flip means that the trend will probably be interrupted by something).

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

It was double-digit Republican in 2022, which in Michigan only saw a totally ridiculous Democratic turnout advantage and quasi-landslide conditions. My guess is it remains so safe that it will remain Republican until the current set of trends is replaced by a different set of trends. (Something like this is also my opinion on the state of Kansas -- the Democratic trend there is obviously real, but it's so red that the amount of time necessary for the state to actually flip means that the trend will probably be interrupted by something).

The Democrat in 2022 was a random nobody sacrificial lamb.