GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's are favored to win the Gov race and Senate race, D's in GA don't want Perdue back

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

GA has changed, its not Safe R anymore

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

(I realize no one is listening)

But in a strong R year, this race is Lean R right now depending upon how fast Georgia is trending blue

Perdue was the only one that would make this Lean R

Forgive us if we don't take you seriously.

You’re forgiven lol

It won't be a strong R yr, since Biden approvals are at 50%, we did better in NC and GA than Iowa. Don't forget that we won 2 Runoffs and Rs were supposed to win them.

It looks like a neutral cycle, it goes by Prez approvals, Trump never had 50% approvals and never had Honeymoon



AA Traditionally don't vote in midterms, when Obama was Prez, they were complacent, here in the Special Election in CAli, with 3 strong AA recruits, AA are voting due to VBM.

AA won't be complacent due to VBM and with Warnock on the ballot

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

There is a drop off of turnout from 60%, in a Prez Election Obama Midterms it dropped to 33% not 47% in 2010, we did recover in 2014/ but it was a red Senate, that's why it will be Neutral Environment not an R cycle

The first midterm was devestating due to fact the D's were upset at Obamacare tax penalty, the Rs must realize that, going into 2022/ that they built up their Conservative Majority off of Obamacare repeal and they didn't even do it

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Perdue is the king of suburbs and will absolutely go back to pre-Trump levels. Warnock is toast. /s

Nah, Rafael will win, but Kemp will win, there is gonna be split voting, FL Crist, OH Ryan, PA Fetterman

Upsets in NH with Sununu and Ron Johnson

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Perdue is the king of suburbs and will absolutely go back to pre-Trump levels. Warnock is toast. /s

Nah, Rafael will win, but Kemp will win, there is gonna be split voting, FL Crist, OH Ryan, PA Fetterman

Upsets in NH with Sununu and Ron Johnson

Lololololololololololololololololololololol, Democrats aren’t winning Ohio

Yes we are

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol Loeffler will lose again, Brian Kemp may win if he doesn't face Stacy Abrams, but Warnock will win and may avoid a Runoff, if Stacy Abrams runs

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Were at the end of this Recession, the country won't be open this yr, but by Jan 2022,we will be back to a new normal, we don't know what the new normal is, but it won't be anything like 2020/ that's why Ds chances of keeping Congress keeps on improving with Biden 56% approvals

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Warnock broke the color barrier, it's gonna be hard to dispatch him from office from GA.

I hope he serves along with future Senator Mfume who is the heir apparent should DC become a State should Ds net gain seats

If this was a Prez and we had Biden, Kenyatta would be an excellent idea, but we need Fetterman. Blue collar roots can help is in other races

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs aren't winning this seat period, GA has changed and so is NC and FL and VA, they are Sunbelt states not Bible belt States
.yeah, we lost NC and FL, but that was before Insurrectionists

Rs shouldn't underestimate J.Jackson, he isn't CUNNINGHAM that had the sex scandal

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Even if Rs maintained Senate, Loeffler didn't understand that since the House was D, they couldn't overturn a states EC vote. It takes only one House to reject the objection, to substain the Prez winner.

The Rs also didn't stop Mcconnell from objecting to 2K stimulus and they ran on in GA allowing 2K checks.

It's looks better for the D's that they will have enough votes in Senate after 2022, and D's maintaining the House that we will get Statehood and wave insurance seats in OH, NC and FL

NC looks very good now for D's, McCrory said on Meet the Press don't underestimate Jeff Jackson

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Gov Kemp is easily gonna get Reelected that's why Abrams refused to say on MTP that she was gonna definitely run for Gov

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Kemp is probably gonna get Reelected, every R Gov have been Reelected Deal and Perdue, there will be split voting.

Just like OH Send Mandel is is trouble with a Tim Ryan challenge and DeWine is safe


D's win net OH, NC, PA and WI

2018 AZ and OH split their votes, GA and OH seem likely this time in another Midterms

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

GA is a runoff state, the chances of either one avoiding a Runoff is low anyways they have to get 50.1, everyone thinks it's a lock for D's last poll had Walker 47 and WARNOCK 45, falling well below 50%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Since Crt packing is off the table, Hassan and SHAHEEN have come out against it, this lifts s burden of D's, WARNOCK is favored.

They don't have 50 votes for Crt Packing

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

wow Collins clearing the field for Walker is unexpected I really don't see Hershell Walker beating Warnock but what do the GA posters think?

...Walker was leading WARNOCK 47/45

This seat isn't safe, it's a Runoff, thats why Ds are targeting OH Ryan and Sand in IA in case there is a Runoff in GA to ensure wave insurance if they nominate Beasley instead of Jackson, they will lose to Lara Trump or McCrory

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This seat is not safe in a 51/49 Senate Herschel Walker leads WARNOCK 47/45 and Gov Kemp reduced access to Runoff VBM

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Walker would win by 3-5 points against Warnock. If the black vote were to shift by a somewhat-hefty margin in Georgia, the blue wall there would collapse. Not to mention he would have preserved the Trump coalition with Trump supporting him so early. He's also inoffensive to the Suburbs, and they would swing-R with this being a non-presidential year, and Warnock would get under 70% of the vote in Fulton. The Georgia Legislature also putting in reasonable voting laws after all this time (which should have been put in place before 2020) will also be a factor in this race.

Other mentions of Walker's strength as a candidate include him being one of the most popular athletes of Georgia, well-spoken, and having a relatable lifestory. In 2022, the stories the MSM will be writing articles about is how GOP minority-candidates (Like they did in 2020) were a big part in taking Congress to Republican hands. Walker will be one of the front-faces of this.

Oh good christ you cannot be serious

The South is trending fast R while the N is trendinf D, U have Rs netting 10 seats in H and D's winning 24 Gs with 278 Freiwall and D's winning WI, PA, NH in the Senate.

Which State changed R last time AL, a Southern state

D's performance will match Biden 51/49 Approvals and a D plus 2 Election Ds lose the H but keep Senate

I want to see what the Hunter Biden investation takes us into when Speaker Mccarthy investation
Harris is the backup candidate for 2024

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I actually think there’s a narrow path for Walker to win/Warnock to lose, but it will require everything to fall into place & it would be a somewhat unconventional R winning coalition by GA standards. Walker’s not going to win by converting supposedly "undecided", "moderate" Atlanta suburbanites/exurbanites who voted out their generic R Senator to give Biden a trifecta in a runoff election, he’s going to do it by pushing R base turnout to Nov. 2020 levels (Perdue did receive more voters than Ossoff in that election), activating a small but non-insignificant untapped base of fairly apolitical voters in the urban areas in particular, and accelerating trends among non-college-educated voters of color, primarily by portraying himself as an outsider and focusing on culture wars (that All-Star Game boycott controversy might have been a preview of this). It’s narrowing the gap in Clayton/DeKalb more so than clawing back lost ground in Cobb/Forsyth that’s his best path.

I’m not saying that that’s likely to happen, but it’s probably his (or any Republican's) best and only chance in the GA of 2022. Obviously this is a near-guaranteed D win in 2028 regardless of what happens next year.

Warnock is a good candidate with working- class black voters, he is one of them. Walker won't do well in the suburbs and I'm skeptical he can move in from Texas and win in the general.

Herschel Walker is a martial artist on Tv every D Hassan, KElly, CCM, Fetterman and Nelson are above 50percent, D's don't need GA to win the Prez, it's gonna be the first state to return to the R fold, Herschel Walker is like Kayne West to Afro Americans, underestimate Heschek Walker at your will.  Hassan is at 55 percent Approvals in the last Change Research poll, she isn't losing.

Any politician under 50 can lose and last poll it was Walker 47/45. I probably endorse Walker when the maps come out


That's why Rubio and McCrory will win they are at 50

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Herschel Walker in the last poll is leading WARNOCK 47/45, this race will go to a Runoff, and Brian Kemp was leading Stacy Abrams, if Abrams doesn't announce soon, which she was asked on MTP and she declined to run, Kemp is gonna be an ENTRENCHED INCUMBENT

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's are gonna gain two seats and lose 1, net gain 1 and it's gonna be a 51/49 Majority

D's don't need GA to win the EC college in 2024 and in 2024 it's gonna be the samething with Joe Manchin.

If it's a 51/49 Senate Sinema if D's control H would be the tie breaker on DC Statehood, IMAGINE THAT.  BIDEN IS AT 51/49 APPROVALS AND IN MIDTERNS DS PERFORMANCE MATCHES PREZ APPROVALS. BIDEN IS not at 60% anymore

Hassan can win. Once we get a Dem Nominee for Gov and in GA Kemp even if Abrams runs is leading Abrams in last pl. Nathan Deal and Sonny Perdue won Reelection

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

D's don't have to win GA, we didn't have to win it in 2008/12 it was a solid R state until 2020, since 1992 and it's a Runoff anyways, WARNOCK can lose in a Runoff to Herschel Walker

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's gonna be a NPVI 52/48 the same exact Approvals of Joe Biden right now and D's matches the exact Approvals of their Inc Prez if polling holds it a 304 blue wall map, and WARNOCK narrowly wins the Runoffs despite if Abrams run or not

OH or NC are wave insurence in case we don't win GA, but we haven't seen any polls and we won't know about those states anyways when the LV sample comes out with usually Mason Dixon polls not RV, RV gives us a false sample on Mason Dixon states

But, NH is lone exception Change usually polls right and last Change poll had Hassan at 55% Approvals, over 50%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Herschel Walker is old news, WARNOCK is today's news, Herschel Walker isn't Kayne West whom is beloved by Afro American and Latino Community, thats why James have had such a hard time winning in MI

But, he will come close and so will James or Craig in MI

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Walker becomes a senator with that… as his son then there is no justice in America

Ever heard of Hunter Biden?

Say what you will about Hunter Biden, but he is astronomically cooler than Chr*stian.

If Rs take the H, they will investigate him