GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1361461296487620614?s=20

[Rookie Yinzer]

That letter was delusional.

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1363835943816491010?s=20

[Rookie Yinzer]

I still expect Warnock to lose, though.

And you know this a whole 18 months before a single vote is cast. Wow!

[Rookie Yinzer]

Maybe it's time to start saying that Warnock will help Abrams and not the other way around? If we're going to make sweeping assumptions about candidate caliber and performance from previous elections, then it can just as easily be noted that Warnock did 3.5 points better, produced a blacker electorate and got a significantly higher share of whites - all during a runoff/special election and with 15% higher raw turnout.

Code:

2018 GOV (3.9m votes)
White	62.5%   25% D
Black	31.6%   93% D
Other	5.9%     64% D

2020 PRES (5.0m votes)
White	61.5%   29% D
Black	31.0%   88% D
Other	7.5%     58% D

2021 SENATE (4.5m votes)
White	62.1%   29% D
Black	31.8%   93% D
Other	6.1%     57% D

That has less to do with candidate quality and maybe more to do with the 1 million plus new voters added to the rolls AFTER 2018, and the attention that Abrams’ loss brought to voting in Georgia. They are both phenomenal and we couldn’t ask for a better tag team at the top of the ticket.

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/RepDougCollins/status/1386681974178394113?s=20

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/RepDougCollins/status/1386681974178394113?s=20

I'm pretty surprised. It sort of makes sense though, since Trump has essentially already endorsed Walker for Senate and probably is going to endorse Jones for Governor, and Collins didn't want to risk it. Kemp is probably still toast, though.

While I don't necessarily agree that Kemp is toast, I do think it is interesting that a former football player/current Texas resident, and a former Democratic State Representative, have effectively kept other credible Republican candidates from running for Senate and Governor in Georgia.

Vernon Jones isn’t keeping anybody from running for Governor. The GA GOP is fully behind Kemp and honestly the GOP voters will be too.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Yeah, Republicans nominating Herschel Walker is probably the only way they lose this seat, much like the Ken Buck/Christine O'Donnell nominations in 2010.

Hell, Marjorie Taylor Greene probably could win, and she's insane. (But she's also very unlikely to run).

Here y’all go again. This opinion is based on literally nothing. LOL.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Who are the serious Republicans in this race?

Also Warnock appears to be quite popular in GA.

Doesn't matter if the GOP is able to overturn the election.

I can’t with this defeatist mess. Y’all need to stop.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Georgia especially Metro Atlanta is heavily transient. Not only do young voters not care about him there are plenty of middle aged and older folks who won’t care either because they’re not even from here.

This race is still Tilt D.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Walker doesn't need to convert a single college-educated white voter in order to win, he just needs enough Democrats to stay home/be suppressed. Given that this is a Biden midterm, I expect a combination of the two to happen.

This shtick is draining.

[Rookie Yinzer]

If you watch 2014 coverage you will see that republicans outperformed expectations in Georgia that year . Most people thought Nunn/Carter at the very least would force a runoff and they didn’t

That was ignorant wishful thinking from pundits/elitists who thought people gave a d*mn about Carter and Nunn being legacy candidates.

No swing is "regardless of the environment."  GA's swing towards the Democrats in 2018 was less than the nation as a whole, for example. 

States with strong trends aren't immune from the national environment.  Most expect Kemp to best his 2018 performance versus Abrams.  How does this fit into your theory of Georgia as a perpetually D-swinging state?      

Huh? GA has moved left in every election since 2012. Period. What people "expect" is irrelevant to what the actual results will end up being. Most people said that Stacey Abrams would underperform Jason Carter and that her run for Governor would show us what the absolute FLOOR was for Democrats in GA.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Well this is interesting. I thought Warnock would narrowly survive based on the weakness of Walker as a candidate but this could be damaging.

Warnock used campaign funds to fight personal lawsuit

It won’t matter.  For better or worse, these sorts of scandals never really resonate with voters.

Hope you're right. Is that even much in the news in Georgia? And even if so, we're in a 24 hour news cycle and it's early July. The election won't take place for another four months.

No, I have been home in Georgia visiting family the past few weeks and didn't see anything about this until this thread.

[Rookie Yinzer]

The debate was a wash. Nothing about this race changed.

Now that that's over Warnock just needs to focus on banking votes for the next three weeks so he can end this madness on November 8.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I get its a political forum, but its weird how folks place such hyper-inflated significance on these debates

They will watch the debate at home alone, and then come to this forum saying "Walker just consolidated the R base". Huh? You literally had that discussion with yourself and made that up. It's so weird. LOL.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I don’t want to turn this into a soap box, but Trump/NRSC/Walker got exactly what they deserved here. People were skeptical that Georgia,  a state that historically has minimal if any ticket splitting would do it. But we did. Walker was so uniquely trash of a candidate that he underperformed Brian Kemp by 8%, and I think this is a case study on how candidate quality does in fact matter. Every other Republican in Georgia easily won. If it ends up costing the Republicans the Senate, good. Maybe they’ll learn their lesson that you can’t get away with running the craziest mother truckers out there and still expect to win. I am so thrilled at the results in Georgia.

Thank God they did it. We would have lost a quality Senator with literally any other nominee. On to the runoff!

[Rookie Yinzer]

Dem base actually likes Warnock and Independents will hold their nose to vote for him.

The fact that Walker finished 1 point behind Warnock while all Republicans were winning by 5+ is pathetic and indicative of how turnout for him will plummet among a certain sect of GOP in the runoff. Hardcore election truther hicks cannot save him if GOP support in wealthy, densely populated ATL suburbs craters.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I hope Warnock wins Fayette in the runoff. Just for weird aesthetic reasons haha

[Rookie Yinzer]

I’m starting to think this will be a lopsided Warnock win. His performance in the Loeffler runoff and 2022 general were so impressive, especially in metro Atlanta. He is liked and respected by non-Democrats and Walker is awful. I just don’t see it being particularly close at this point.

Likely D.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I’m starting to think this will be a lopsided Warnock win. His performance in the Loeffler runoff and 2022 general were so impressive, especially in metro Atlanta. He is liked and respected by non-Democrats and Walker is awful. I just don’t see it being particularly close at this point.

Likely D.

What's your prediction then? 52-48%, or even 53-47%. I don't think it will be in double digits or even close to that. Even 51.5%-48.5% would be impressive. However, in the end, I just want Warnock to win.

54-46. This is literally the only thing on the ballot. Core Metro Atlanta counties are running up the score today and tomorrow. And I believe the long lines are people voting to keep Walker out of the Senate. We will see in 10 days.

[Rookie Yinzer]

It is more complicated than 2020 and I don’t know anyone who still uses a printer like that so it was definitely designed to reduce VBM and has pushed people back to IPEV hard.

[Rookie Yinzer]

One worrisome sign for dems is that the electorate is becoming older, the opposite of what normally happens. It really seems like there was a post-Thanksgiving rush among the youth last Saturday and it is now receding.

Well Warnock won’t win without 40+ year old Democrats, Black voters, non-Black POC voting either….

[Rookie Yinzer]

L2 estimates that the early vote is about D+10 right now

https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1598686174742286338

Probably much more D in reality since a lot of Democrats voted for Kemp and Raffensperger in the primary.

And a substantial number of Rs will be voting for Warnock.

[Rookie Yinzer]

L2 estimates that the early vote is about D+10 right now

https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1598686174742286338

Probably much more D in reality since a lot of Democrats voted for Kemp and Raffensperger in the primary.

And a substantial number of Rs will be voting for Warnock.

I don't think using primary participation is an accurate representation of how voters are likely to vote in the runoff. I typically vote in the R primaries and know a number of Warnock voters that do as well. I do this because for most local elections, the primary election is more competitive than the general election, and I want to have a say in who will end up representing me.

Also, GA doesn't have partisan registration, but if it did, I don't think Raffensberger would have won his primary (without a runoff at least) if it were closed to Is and Ds.

I was talking about literal Kemp/Warnock voters, not primary preference. I expect those types to be high propensity and willing to turn out for Warnock again (to stop Walker) vs low propensity hardliners who voted Kemp/Walker out of party loyalty but don’t like Walker enough to show up a second time when no check on Biden is needed/at stake.

[Rookie Yinzer]

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1599524755522068480

That last line WAS funny. LOL.