GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[GeorgiaModerate]

If Vernon Jones, Herschel Walker, Stacey Abrams, and Raphael Warnock all win their primaries (perhaps the modal outcome at this point), all candidates for Governor and Senate will be black. Pretty incredible.

I think it's very unlikely that Jones will win his primary.  IMO Kemp is in a stronger position than a lot of people give him credit for.

[GeorgiaModerate]

This seat is not safe in a 51/49 Senate Herschel Walker leads WARNOCK 47/45 and Gov Kemp reduced access to Runoff VBM

Imagine thinking Trafalgar is a legit firm...

They aren't, but were more accurate than Quinnipiac in 2020. As embarrassing as it is.

Trafalgar has a particularly bad record in Georgia.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Herschel Walker’s wife voted in Georgia (apparently illegally since the couple lives in Texas).  Voter fraud!

https://www.ajc.com/politics/walkers-wife-voted-in-georgia-as-couple-lives-in-texas-records-show/YCYYMDRYXBBTPCHMQUN36HWEKE/

[GeorgiaModerate]

I mentioned to a 20-something relative (a UGA grad student who used to work at Sanford Stadium during home football games) that Herschel Walker was running for Senate, and his response was "who's that?"

[GeorgiaModerate]

ROFL:

https://twitter.com/davidaxelrod/status/1431341126255058945

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/EWErickson/status/1511363006998925314

[GeorgiaModerate]

Does Herschel Walker win the infamous Forsyth County in the GOP primary?

I (a Forsyth County resident) expect that he will.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/starsandstripes/status/1527908300620083200

[GeorgiaModerate]

Possible United States Senator demonstrating his genius brain which has not been damaged by repeated hard blows to the head:

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1529281988158541825?s=20&t=WxuYqXDbyIjLFtJ...

I'm looking at a guy who will NOT be showing up to debate Warnock later this year. He won't want to, and the GOP won't let him. He will be a no-show.

You're probably right, but I so much want to see some debates between them.  Warnock would destroy him.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ReverendWarnock/status/1529856140154118150

[GeorgiaModerate]

Anecdotally I am hearing a disheartening amount of Kemp-curiousness from suburbanites who are grateful that he "stood up to Trump" but should know better, but an encouraging amount of people uncomfortable with electing some unhinged football player. I think there might be a wider gulf between GOV and SEN than I initially thought. Voters have the memory of goldfish .

Same here. All anecdotally, but still. And on top of that, the amount of otherwise straight ticket Democrats who are Raffensperger-curious is too damn high.

Agree with both of you.  I think Kemp, Raffensperger, and Warnock are favorites in November.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1536513537144770562

[GeorgiaModerate]

I think that Walker quote isn't new...let me look a bit.

Edit: here's the original tweet with the recording, which just identifies it as an "old interview".  I can't find the date, but Walker looks considerably younger than he does today.

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1539384514522259457

[GeorgiaModerate]

Well this is interesting. I thought Warnock would narrowly survive based on the weakness of Walker as a candidate but this could be damaging.

Warnock used campaign funds to fight personal lawsuit

It won’t matter.  For better or worse, these sorts of scandals never really resonate with voters.

Hope you're right. Is that even much in the news in Georgia? And even if so, we're in a 24 hour news cycle and it's early July. The election won't take place for another four months.

No, I have been home in Georgia visiting family the past few weeks and didn't see anything about this until this thread.

I also haven't seen anything about it other than here.  But I've seen the latest Walker story in Atlanta media.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Well this is interesting. I thought Warnock would narrowly survive based on the weakness of Walker as a candidate but this could be damaging.

Warnock used campaign funds to fight personal lawsuit

It won’t matter.  For better or worse, these sorts of scandals never really resonate with voters.

Hope you're right. Is that even much in the news in Georgia? And even if so, we're in a 24 hour news cycle and it's early July. The election won't take place for another four months.

No, I have been home in Georgia visiting family the past few weeks and didn't see anything about this until this thread.

I also haven't seen anything about it other than here.  But I've seen the latest Walker story in Atlanta media.

The Warnock story is now also on the AJC homepage, but down in the Politics section: https://www.ajc.com/politics/election/republicans-warnock-violated-campaign-finance-law/KAU2TFBFTREVZC3URAQGV3NKZ4/

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1546476045112676352

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ReverendWarnock/status/1551538042539737089

[GeorgiaModerate]

Warnock and Walker are now 50-50 in 538's Deluxe Senate model.  Warnock is a 57% favorite in the Classic model.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1553085246240964608

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://mobile.twitter.com/bluestein/status/1554649858321285125

[GeorgiaModerate]

Warnock finally pulls ahead in 538's Deluxe model at 51%.  He's at 57% in the Classic model.

[GeorgiaModerate]

If control of the Senate hangs on a runoff in this seat again (which is very possible), how seriously do both sides take this race?

I shudder to think of the deluge of ads, calls, texts, and mailers we'll be getting.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I just saw an ad during the Braves game thanking Warnock for being a "committed progressive Joe Biden can count on".  It was rather over the top.  The ad was run by "OAC Action" with a URL of www.oacaction.org, which redirects to https://oacaction.org/.  That site has a video of the ad if you want to see it. 

The site also says it's from "Our American Century Action", which according to OpenSecrets is a single-candidate Super PAC in support of Donald Trump.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1558272854298431489

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/RonFilipkowski/status/1559328745575661568

I'll keep that in mind if I ever have Top Secret documents hidden in my house.