GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[Adam Griffin]

Precinct loyalty map for the 2021 special runoff and the 2022 runoff in the Atlanta metro. Warnock improved in most places, but it looks like his biggest gains were in North Fulton and East Cobb:

https://twitter.com/Uncrewed/status/1603820503784837121

So, Warnock swung Fayette like 7 points towards him and not a single precinct flipped.

The Kedron precinct (in the far western part of the county that's the least Republican part of Peachtree City) came the closest. It went from Loeffler 54-46 in the 2021 runoff to Walker 51-49 in 2022. I don't think the result is surprising, given how geographically and racially polarized the county is in certain areas. The southern part of Fayette is still heavily Republican and hasn't shifted nearly as much as precincts around Fayetteville.

It makes a lot of sense. I tried to search for a years-old post of mine (to no avail) discussing how pretty much through 2012 or 2014, there was a solid wall all along the Fulton and Clayton sides of the boundary where there were nothing but >80% D precincts...only to cross into Fayette and have a couple of nominally-Democratic precincts surrounded by a wall of R precincts countywide.

Ten to fifteen years ago, the Fayette-Fulton-Clayton line was arguably the most distinct indicator of racial segregation in the entire metro ATL area. Now, close to half of its mass is contained within Democratic precincts.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Precinct loyalty map for the 2021 special runoff and the 2022 runoff in the Atlanta metro. Warnock improved in most places, but it looks like his biggest gains were in North Fulton and East Cobb:

https://twitter.com/Uncrewed/status/1603820503784837121

So, Warnock swung Fayette like 7 points towards him and not a single precinct flipped.

The Kedron precinct (in the far western part of the county that's the least Republican part of Peachtree City) came the closest. It went from Loeffler 54-46 in the 2021 runoff to Walker 51-49 in 2022. I don't think the result is surprising, given how geographically and racially polarized the county is in certain areas. The southern part of Fayette is still heavily Republican and hasn't shifted nearly as much as precincts around Fayetteville.

It makes a lot of sense. I tried to search for a years-old post of mine (to no avail) discussing how pretty much through 2012 or 2014, there was a solid wall all along the Fulton and Clayton sides of the boundary where there were nothing but >80% D precincts...only to cross into Fayette and have a couple of nominally-Democratic precincts surrounded by a wall of R precincts countywide.

Ten to fifteen years ago, the Fayette-Fulton-Clayton line was arguably the most distinct indicator of racial segregation in the entire metro ATL area. Now, close to half of its mass is contained within Democratic precincts.

Now the most extreme ATL metro divide has to be between Walton County and Gwinnett County. Seems like development and racial diversity has a pretty stark dropoff as soon as you enter into Walton County - I wonder if it'll stay that way and for how long?

The dropoff from 90% black southern Fulton County to exurban/rural white areas is very sharp as well.

[Adam Griffin]

Precinct loyalty map for the 2021 special runoff and the 2022 runoff in the Atlanta metro. Warnock improved in most places, but it looks like his biggest gains were in North Fulton and East Cobb:

https://twitter.com/Uncrewed/status/1603820503784837121

So, Warnock swung Fayette like 7 points towards him and not a single precinct flipped.

The Kedron precinct (in the far western part of the county that's the least Republican part of Peachtree City) came the closest. It went from Loeffler 54-46 in the 2021 runoff to Walker 51-49 in 2022. I don't think the result is surprising, given how geographically and racially polarized the county is in certain areas. The southern part of Fayette is still heavily Republican and hasn't shifted nearly as much as precincts around Fayetteville.

It makes a lot of sense. I tried to search for a years-old post of mine (to no avail) discussing how pretty much through 2012 or 2014, there was a solid wall all along the Fulton and Clayton sides of the boundary where there were nothing but >80% D precincts...only to cross into Fayette and have a couple of nominally-Democratic precincts surrounded by a wall of R precincts countywide.

Ten to fifteen years ago, the Fayette-Fulton-Clayton line was arguably the most distinct indicator of racial segregation in the entire metro ATL area. Now, close to half of its mass is contained within Democratic precincts.

Now the most extreme ATL metro divide has to be between Walton County and Gwinnett County. Seems like development and racial diversity has a pretty stark dropoff as soon as you enter into Walton County - I wonder if it'll stay that way and for how long?

The dropoff from 90% black southern Fulton County to exurban/rural white areas is very sharp as well.

Not to say that a county can't change (see: Oprah in Forsyth County, 1987), but Walton I think will remain more or less stagnant in this regard for the foreseeable future. To illustrate, a certain long-term poster who lives near there let me in on a contemporary terms that white residents from there use to refer to the county seat (Monroe, which is half-black and the only nominally-D precinct in the county): they call it "Monkeyrow".

Obviously a massive explosion in outside growth can change the character of an area, but there's a reputation there that I think will probably keep any sizeable new black suburban growth from emerging there (not to mention that almost no Latino or Asians are moving into any southside suburbs/exurbs). Add to that its relative isolation and distance from the urban core, and I think this really only allows for how much white southern college-educated growth/shift can occur there (which I do not believe is all that much).

(For what it's worth, there are multiple western Walton County precincts that swung 10-20 points between 2016-2020 - which went from 82% white to 64% white & 12% black to 22% black between 2010-20 - so who knows. However, said segment of Walton only grew from 22.2% of the county in 2010 to 23.5% in 2020, so I think it's a bit premature to really consider it a true outcropping of Gwinnett in spirit; the demographically-favorable in-migration should be dramatically outpacing any white flight for such to be the case IMO. Population and swing below):

[Yoda]

Precinct loyalty map for the 2021 special runoff and the 2022 runoff in the Atlanta metro. Warnock improved in most places, but it looks like his biggest gains were in North Fulton and East Cobb:

https://twitter.com/Uncrewed/status/1603820503784837121

That little island of red between Forest Park and South Fulton amuses me.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Precinct loyalty map for the 2021 special runoff and the 2022 runoff in the Atlanta metro. Warnock improved in most places, but it looks like his biggest gains were in North Fulton and East Cobb:

https://twitter.com/Uncrewed/status/1603820503784837121

That little island of red between Forest Park and South Fulton amuses me.

Buckhead is naturally more Republican than, say, areas to its south.

[Torie]

Precinct loyalty map for the 2021 special runoff and the 2022 runoff in the Atlanta metro. Warnock improved in most places, but it looks like his biggest gains were in North Fulton and East Cobb:

https://twitter.com/Uncrewed/status/1603820503784837121

That little island of red between Forest Park and South Fulton amuses me.

Buckhead is naturally more Republican than, say, areas to its south.

That's where Driving Miss Daisy was based.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Forsyth has also gotten a notable Asian population growing very very fast. I imagine that also has some impact on the politics. I hope Michelle Au runs for SD-48 at some point, she seemed like a really great State Senator though trying to run for re-election as a Senator under the new maps would've been political suicide this cycle. If Ds want any chance of flipping the State Senate this decade, SD-48 is probably the easiest way to start.

Yes, there definitely is a booming Asian population in this area. I'm not as familiar with the political trends within the Asian community, but I think on balance, the group is probably something like 60/40 D (maybe 65/35 D). To break it down further, the sense I get from talking to some of our Asian neighbors and friends is that the South Asian community tends to trend pretty heavily D while the East Asian community (Korean, Chinese predominately) are more politically divided. The East Asian small business owner contingent actually is pretty visible in the local R groups.

I've heard good things about State Senator (now state rep) Au btw. She's not my representative, but it's pretty cool that she's the only elected doctor in the GA legislature. Feels like we need more of those folks if we're trying to set policies on topics like abortion but I digress.

I believe I've read that there's about 50K-60K (Asian) Indian-American registered voters in GA.  A small but notable chunk of my Desi friends are clustered around the Atlanta area.  

All but one or two are progressive-types who I presume voted for Warnock.  Would love to see the overall stats on GA Indian-American voters.  

https://www.aaldef.org/press-release/aaldef-releases-preliminary-asian-american-exit-poll-results-for-2022-midterm-elections/ (not nationally representative)

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DC | CA | FL | GA | LA | MA | MD | MI | MN | NJ | NM | NV | NY | PA | TX | VA

(On Nov 9), the Asian American Legal Defense and Education Fund (AALDEF) released preliminary results of its nonpartisan, multilingual exit poll of 5,351 Asian American voters in the November 8, 2022, midterm elections.

Voters were surveyed in English, as well as 11 Asian languages, including Arabic, Bengali, Chinese, Gujarati, Hindi, Khmer, Korean, Punjabi, Tagalog, Urdu, and Vietnamese. More detailed results will be provided soon.

Nationally

Vote for House of Representatives: 64.0% Democrat, 32.0% Republican, 2.7% Other, 1.2% Did Not Vote

Vote for Senate (CA, FL, GA, LA, MD, NV, NY, PA only): 66.1% Democrat, 30.0% Republican, 2.5% Other, 1.4% Did Not Vote

Joe Biden Approval: 45.3% Approve, 23.3% Don’t Know, 31.4% Disapprove

Victim of Anti-Asian Harassment or Violence in the Past Two Years: 21.6% Yes, 78.4% No

Support Requiring Teaching a Unit of AAPI History in K-12: 82.7% Yes, 17.3% No

Support Access to Legal Abortion: 63.8% Support, 15.8% Don’t Know, 20.4% Oppose

Support Laws to Protect Transgender People from Discrimination: 65.2% Support, 20.9% Don’t Know, 14.0% Oppose

Georgia (@LostFellow, @Xahar)

Vote for House of Representatives: 60.3% Democrat, 35.1% Republican, 3.3% Other, 1.3% Did Not Vote

Vote for Senate: 60.1% Warnock, 33.3% Walker, 4.6% Other, 2.0% Did Not Vote

Joe Biden Approval: 37.9% Approve, 26.1% Don’t Know, 36.0% Disapprove

Support Access to Legal Abortion: 59.2% Support, 19.8% Don’t Know, 21.0% Oppose

https://www.aaldef.org/press-release/asian-americans-supported-warnock-according-to-aaldef-asian-american-exit-poll/

GA-SEN Runoff update. A bit surprised how R the Chinese crosstab is here given the Vietnamese and Korean crosstabs. The only semi-plausible reasons I can think of for this are 1) comparatively secular Chinese immigrants possibly being turned off by Warnock's ties to organized religion, and 2) Chinese immigrants being displeased with national Dems' anti-China pandering?

Asian American voters’ support for Senator Warnock grew versus the November 8 General Election, with 78.1% supporting him in the runoff versus 60.1% in the general election.

The five largest Asian American national origin groups in our survey supported Senator Warnock:

Bangladeshi: 96.3% Warnock, 3.7% Walker
Asian Indian: 83.3% Warnock, 14.1% Walker
Vietnamese: 80.0% Warnock, 20.0% Walker
Korean: 64.8% Warnock, 35.2% Walker
Chinese: 61.5% Warnock, 38.5% Walker

• Female voters supported Warnock 81.4% and Walker 17.9%, while Male voters supported Warnock 75.7% and Walker 23.6%.
• Native-Born voters supported Warnock 93.2% and Walker 6.8%, while Foreign-Born voters supported Warnock 72.3% and Walker 27.7%.
• Voters with limited English proficiency (LEP) supported Warnock 64.4% and Walker 35.6%, while Non-LEP voters supported Warnock 84.9% and Walker 15.1%.
• Registered Democrats voted for Warnock by 98.5% while registered Republicans voted for Walker by 84.6%.

Definitely wonder if differences in ethnic origin among various AAPI-heavy Atlanta suburbs/precincts account for variable swings from the GE to the runoff. I know next to nothing about which Asian groups live where other than Gwinnett County having a lot of Vietnamese, Koreans, and Indians.

A summary of the Senate and gubernatorial results in each Metro ATL precinct with at least 40% Asian VAP:

DeKalb
Dunwoody (42.1% Asian): Warnock +38.3, Abrams +23.6 (Warnock +14.7)

Forsyth
Johns Creek (41.6% Asian): Walker +6.3, Kemp +22.5 (Warnock +16.2)
Windermere (41.1% Asian): Walker +13.5, Kemp +29.6 (Warnock +16.1)

Fulton
Alpharetta 12B (58.4% Asian): Warnock +28.4, Abrams +10.6 (Warnock +17.8 )
Johns Creek 1 (54.3% Asian): Warnock +24.4, Abrams +9.1 (Warnock +15.3)
Johns Creek 2 (46.2% Asian): Warnock +20.1, Abrams +3.9 (Warnock +16.2)
Johns Creek 7 (45.9% Asian): Warnock +20.3, Abrams +4.3 (Warnock +16.0)
Johns Creek 6 (41.9% Asian): Warnock +1.8, Kemp +12.3 (Warnock +14.1)
Sandy Springs 29A (40.9% Asian): Warnock +33.0, Abrams +20.3 (Warnock +12.7)

Gwinnett
Duluth I (54.5% Asian): Walker +0.1, Kemp +18.0 (Warnock +17.9)

[forsythvoter]

https://www.aaldef.org/press-release/asian-americans-supported-warnock-according-to-aaldef-asian-american-exit-poll/

GA-SEN Runoff update. A bit surprised how R the Chinese crosstab is here given the Vietnamese and Korean crosstabs. The only semi-plausible reasons I can think of for this are 1) comparatively secular Chinese immigrants possibly being turned off by Warnock's ties to organized religion, and 2) Chinese immigrants being displeased with national Dems' anti-China pandering?

Asian American voters’ support for Senator Warnock grew versus the November 8 General Election, with 78.1% supporting him in the runoff versus 60.1% in the general election.

The five largest Asian American national origin groups in our survey supported Senator Warnock:

Bangladeshi: 96.3% Warnock, 3.7% Walker
Asian Indian: 83.3% Warnock, 14.1% Walker
Vietnamese: 80.0% Warnock, 20.0% Walker
Korean: 64.8% Warnock, 35.2% Walker
Chinese: 61.5% Warnock, 38.5% Walker

• Female voters supported Warnock 81.4% and Walker 17.9%, while Male voters supported Warnock 75.7% and Walker 23.6%.
• Native-Born voters supported Warnock 93.2% and Walker 6.8%, while Foreign-Born voters supported Warnock 72.3% and Walker 27.7%.
• Voters with limited English proficiency (LEP) supported Warnock 64.4% and Walker 35.6%, while Non-LEP voters supported Warnock 84.9% and Walker 15.1%.
• Registered Democrats voted for Warnock by 98.5% while registered Republicans voted for Walker by 84.6%.

I'm not an expert on Asian voting patterns, but it actually doesn't surprise me Chinese Americans voted the most R. Here in Forsyth at least, it seems a disproportionate number are rather successful small business owners, and the folks I know in this group are all heavily R. The more D trending Asians (of all ethnic groups) I know tend to be in professional services (e.g., healthcare, legal, higher education).

[OSR stands with Israel]

How did it grow from 60% in the general to 78% in the runoff . Are higher propensity Asian voters more likely to be democratic than lower propensity ones .

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

https://www.aaldef.org/press-release/asian-americans-supported-warnock-according-to-aaldef-asian-american-exit-poll/

GA-SEN Runoff update. A bit surprised how R the Chinese crosstab is here given the Vietnamese and Korean crosstabs. The only semi-plausible reasons I can think of for this are 1) comparatively secular Chinese immigrants possibly being turned off by Warnock's ties to organized religion, and 2) Chinese immigrants being displeased with national Dems' anti-China pandering?

Asian American voters’ support for Senator Warnock grew versus the November 8 General Election, with 78.1% supporting him in the runoff versus 60.1% in the general election.

The five largest Asian American national origin groups in our survey supported Senator Warnock:

Bangladeshi: 96.3% Warnock, 3.7% Walker
Asian Indian: 83.3% Warnock, 14.1% Walker
Vietnamese: 80.0% Warnock, 20.0% Walker
Korean: 64.8% Warnock, 35.2% Walker
Chinese: 61.5% Warnock, 38.5% Walker

• Female voters supported Warnock 81.4% and Walker 17.9%, while Male voters supported Warnock 75.7% and Walker 23.6%.
• Native-Born voters supported Warnock 93.2% and Walker 6.8%, while Foreign-Born voters supported Warnock 72.3% and Walker 27.7%.
• Voters with limited English proficiency (LEP) supported Warnock 64.4% and Walker 35.6%, while Non-LEP voters supported Warnock 84.9% and Walker 15.1%.
• Registered Democrats voted for Warnock by 98.5% while registered Republicans voted for Walker by 84.6%.

I'm not an expert on Asian voting patterns, but it actually doesn't surprise me Chinese Americans voted the most R. Here in Forsyth at least, it seems a disproportionate number are rather successful small business owners, and the folks I know in this group are all heavily R. The more D trending Asians (of all ethnic groups) I know tend to be in professional services (e.g., healthcare, legal, higher education).

I haven’t been in Georgia for well over 10 years so I don’t have a good understanding of what the situation is like on the ground. I’m aware that Metro Atlanta is a hub of entrepreneurship for Chinese immigrants, but I see no reason why that wouldn’t also apply to other Asian groups. What kinds of small businesses are we talking about here?

How did it grow from 60% in the general to 78% in the runoff . Are higher propensity Asian voters more likely to be democratic than lower propensity ones

I’d take AALDEF with a grain of salt, they seemed way too D for 2016-PRES and were possivly too R for 2020-PRES (they indicated more willingness to vote for 45 among Koreans, Cambodians, and Vietnamese than my reading of precinct level results would’ve suggested). My guess would be decreased turnout from functional GOPers and Walker turning off Indies more than usual?

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://www.aaldef.org/press-release/asian-americans-supported-warnock-according-to-aaldef-asian-american-exit-poll/

GA-SEN Runoff update. A bit surprised how R the Chinese crosstab is here given the Vietnamese and Korean crosstabs. The only semi-plausible reasons I can think of for this are 1) comparatively secular Chinese immigrants possibly being turned off by Warnock's ties to organized religion, and 2) Chinese immigrants being displeased with national Dems' anti-China pandering?

Asian American voters’ support for Senator Warnock grew versus the November 8 General Election, with 78.1% supporting him in the runoff versus 60.1% in the general election.

The five largest Asian American national origin groups in our survey supported Senator Warnock:

Bangladeshi: 96.3% Warnock, 3.7% Walker
Asian Indian: 83.3% Warnock, 14.1% Walker
Vietnamese: 80.0% Warnock, 20.0% Walker
Korean: 64.8% Warnock, 35.2% Walker
Chinese: 61.5% Warnock, 38.5% Walker

• Female voters supported Warnock 81.4% and Walker 17.9%, while Male voters supported Warnock 75.7% and Walker 23.6%.
• Native-Born voters supported Warnock 93.2% and Walker 6.8%, while Foreign-Born voters supported Warnock 72.3% and Walker 27.7%.
• Voters with limited English proficiency (LEP) supported Warnock 64.4% and Walker 35.6%, while Non-LEP voters supported Warnock 84.9% and Walker 15.1%.
• Registered Democrats voted for Warnock by 98.5% while registered Republicans voted for Walker by 84.6%.

I'm not an expert on Asian voting patterns, but it actually doesn't surprise me Chinese Americans voted the most R. Here in Forsyth at least, it seems a disproportionate number are rather successful small business owners, and the folks I know in this group are all heavily R. The more D trending Asians (of all ethnic groups) I know tend to be in professional services (e.g., healthcare, legal, higher education).

How did it grow from 60% in the general to 78% in the runoff . Are higher propensity Asian voters more likely to be democratic than lower propensity ones

I’d take AALDEF with a grain of salt, they seemed way too D for 2016-PRES and were possivly too R for 2020-PRES (they indicated more willingness to vote for 45 among Koreans, Cambodians, and Vietnamese than my reading of precinct level results would’ve suggested). My guess would be decreased turnout from functional GOPers and Walker turning off Indies more than usual?

Btw If I lived in Georgia I’d have voted for Walker in round 1 and wouldn’t have voted in the runoff so maybe it might just be Asian Republicans who didn’t like Walker and with the senate already decided , there was no real incentive for those types of voters to turn out

[Horus]

Precinct loyalty map for the 2021 special runoff and the 2022 runoff in the Atlanta metro. Warnock improved in most places, but it looks like his biggest gains were in North Fulton and East Cobb:

https://twitter.com/Uncrewed/status/1603820503784837121

That little island of red between Forest Park and South Fulton amuses me.

That is an industrial park. Any residents there are likely homeless. Bit off topic but interestingly in 2020, the most heavily homeless precinct in San Francisco was also the most Republican.

[patzer]

To me, it seems like Atlanta's influence only started hitting Forsyth County at the start of the century; prior to that it was effectively a rural county politically.

Forsyth has also gotten a notable Asian population growing very very fast. I imagine that also has some impact on the politics. I hope Michelle Au runs for SD-48 at some point, she seemed like a really great State Senator though trying to run for re-election as a Senator under the new maps would've been political suicide this cycle. If Ds want any chance of flipping the State Senate this decade, SD-48 is probably the easiest way to start.

Strangely, Wikipedia didn’t have this year’s state senate election results, so I’ve just added them. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Georgia_State_Senate_election#Results

SD-48 is indeed the closest seat (R+13 this year) followed by SD-37 (R+18).

Interestingly, the next closest seats are seven seats in which the Republican candidates all got between 61 and 62% this year. Control of the state senate will almost certainly lie in flipping some of those.

[Tintrlvr]

To me, it seems like Atlanta's influence only started hitting Forsyth County at the start of the century; prior to that it was effectively a rural county politically.

Forsyth has also gotten a notable Asian population growing very very fast. I imagine that also has some impact on the politics. I hope Michelle Au runs for SD-48 at some point, she seemed like a really great State Senator though trying to run for re-election as a Senator under the new maps would've been political suicide this cycle. If Ds want any chance of flipping the State Senate this decade, SD-48 is probably the easiest way to start.

Strangely, Wikipedia didn’t have this year’s state senate election results, so I’ve just added them. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Georgia_State_Senate_election#Results

SD-48 is indeed the closest seat (R+13 this year) followed by SD-37 (R+18).

Interestingly, the next closest seats are seven seats in which the Republican candidates all got between 61 and 62% this year. Control of the state senate will almost certainly lie in flipping some of those.

A gerrymander is always at its most effective in its first election. That result is not coincidental.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1605933136013152258

[GAinDC]

I hate to bring up an old thread, but I was a more of a lurker on this forum during the midterms and followed this race the closest (being from GA).I just wanted to write down a a few takeaways.

Blue Fayette will almost certainly happen by 2024 or 2026

People focused a lot on how competitive Walker was despite being a bad candidate, but I’m more impressed by how well Warnock did with a very R leaning electorate. It shows his strength as a person and a candidate.

Statewide races and federal races are very different. Despite R’s good night in the other elections, this race shows that the coalition that elected Biden, Ossoff and Warnock is still very strong. I think it’s only a matter of time before these voters start electing Democrats at the state level too.

Republicans maintain a very high floor and will remain competitive for the foreseeable future due to the large number of white evangelicals who will turn out for their candidates no matter what. However, I expect this advantage to continue being eroded by Dem voters in Metro Atlanta.

Someone said this earlier, but it’s amazing how Walker did so much better than Trump in rural GA, but still lost by much more than he did because of a moderate swing to Warnock in Metro Atlanta.

I sincerely hope GA Republicans can maintain a more moderate, business friendly brand after Kemp and Raffensperger are gone. Not because I want Republicans representing the state, but because if a Republican wins, I want it to be that kind of a Republican and not someone from the MTG wing.

I have a lot more faith in Biden’s re-election campaign thanks to his hiring of Warnock’s campaign manager, Quentin Fulks. The guy and his team did an amazing job.

I think Warnock has a much easier race in 2028, assuming he runs.