GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[Adam Griffin]

I know this EV electorate is blacker than the November 2022 one, but is it blacker/less white than Jan 2021?

In terms of what voters are labeled explicitly as "black" by SoS, yes. That likely indicates that the actual share (inc. unknown/other) of black voters is higher as well.

Of course, there could be a bigger ED drop-off than in 2021 that whittles this seeming advantage away.

[Skill and Chance]

I know this EV electorate is blacker than the November 2022 one, but is it blacker/less white than Jan 2021?

In terms of what voters are labeled explicitly as "black" by SoS, yes. That likely indicates that the actual share (inc. unknown/other) of black voters is higher as well.

Of course, there could be a bigger ED drop-off than in 2021 that whittles this seeming advantage away.

Georgia still allows day-of absentee drop-offs at the polling place?

[Adam Griffin]

I know this EV electorate is blacker than the November 2022 one, but is it blacker/less white than Jan 2021?

In terms of what voters are labeled explicitly as "black" by SoS, yes. That likely indicates that the actual share (inc. unknown/other) of black voters is higher as well.

Of course, there could be a bigger ED drop-off than in 2021 that whittles this seeming advantage away.

Georgia still allows day-of absentee drop-offs at the polling place?

More or less. You can't just bring it to any precinct voting location on Election Day (unless you wish to void it and cast an in-person ballot), but instead have to take it either to a dropbox or the Board of Elections - which in many counties are one and the same in terms of location.

EDIT: when I said "bigger ED drop-off", I was referring to the electorate becoming even whiter on Election Day than it did on Election Day in the 2021 runoff, thereby potentially offsetting the unprecedented size of the black EV (as in, a dynamic of cannibalization producing a larger black share in this EV, only to disappear via a lily-white ED cohort).

[Skill and Chance]

I know this EV electorate is blacker than the November 2022 one, but is it blacker/less white than Jan 2021?

In terms of what voters are labeled explicitly as "black" by SoS, yes. That likely indicates that the actual share (inc. unknown/other) of black voters is higher as well.

Of course, there could be a bigger ED drop-off than in 2021 that whittles this seeming advantage away.

Georgia still allows day-of absentee drop-offs at the polling place?

More or less. You can't just bring it to any precinct voting location on Election Day (unless you wish to void it and cast an in-person ballot), but instead have to take it either to a dropbox or the Board of Elections - which in many counties are one and the same in terms of location.

Interesting.  While I understand it as an accommodation for voters who received their ballots late and didn't want to risk entering a public building during a pandemic, it doesn't really make sense to me why anyone would drop off an absentee ballot day-of vs. just handing in/destroying the blank ballot and voting in-person in a normal election?  First of all, this doesn't help people who requested mail ballots because they are out of town or unable to physically go to the polling place.  If you are in town on election day anyway, why would you risk having your absentee ballot disqualified on a technicality when you could put one in the machine normally and watch it get counted?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/anjalihuynh/status/1599076169747664899

[Adam Griffin]

(again, just doing so for record-keeping/tracking purposes personally):

As of Friday, 1,852,576 people have voted (73.45% of 2022-G EV).

380,058 votes were cast/received on Friday, smashing one-day records once again - and by more than fifty thousand votes.

55.0% White
31.8% Black
9.6% Other
1.8% Asian
1.7% Latino

55.9% Female
43.8% Male

7.9%   18-29
8.8%   30-39
12.7% 40-49
32.2% 50-64
38.2% 65+

Based on 2022-G ballot return rates (~90%), I estimate an additional 70,000 of the outstanding 95,704 ABMs will be returned by 7 PM on Tuesday, giving us a final EV total of approximately 1,920,000 voters.

[Adam Griffin]

I know this EV electorate is blacker than the November 2022 one, but is it blacker/less white than Jan 2021?

In terms of what voters are labeled explicitly as "black" by SoS, yes. That likely indicates that the actual share (inc. unknown/other) of black voters is higher as well.

Of course, there could be a bigger ED drop-off than in 2021 that whittles this seeming advantage away.

Georgia still allows day-of absentee drop-offs at the polling place?

More or less. You can't just bring it to any precinct voting location on Election Day (unless you wish to void it and cast an in-person ballot), but instead have to take it either to a dropbox or the Board of Elections - which in many counties are one and the same in terms of location.

Interesting.  While I understand it as an accommodation for voters who received their ballots late and didn't want to risk entering a public building during a pandemic, it doesn't really make sense to me why anyone would drop off an absentee ballot day-of vs. just handing in/destroying the blank ballot and voting in-person in a normal election?  First of all, this doesn't help people who requested mail ballots because they are out of town or unable to physically go to the polling place.  If you are in town on election day anyway, why would you risk having your absentee ballot disqualified on a technicality when you could put one in the machine normally and watch it get counted?

True.

Also, I edited perhaps after you quoted me and you may have missed it, but my intended context from the previous post:

EDIT: when I said "bigger ED drop-off", I was referring to the electorate becoming even whiter on Election Day than it did on Election Day in the 2021 runoff, thereby potentially offsetting the unprecedented size of the black EV (as in, a dynamic of cannibalization producing a larger black share in this EV, only to disappear via a lily-white ED cohort).

[Adam Griffin]

Here's the damage:

[Antonio the Sixth]

Thank you for all the data, Adam.

Could we also have a comparison of General vs Runoff EV by age and the % runoff early voters who didn't vote in the general?

[Adam Griffin]

Thank you for all the data, Adam.

Could we also have a comparison of General vs Runoff EV by age and the % runoff early voters who didn't vote in the general?

For the first question, sadly I was lazy in tracking age breakdowns by day for the general election - I'm sure the data is out there somewhere, but I'll have to search for it. What I do recall is that the 18-29 final EV % for the general was essentially where it is for the runoff (~8%).

For the other question: 4.1% of runoff voters did not vote in November. This group breaks down as such:

40.62% White
37.39% Black
14.39% Other/Unknown
4.06%   Asian
3.54%   Latino

55.01% Female
41.26% Male
3.73%   Other/Unknown

29.48% 18-29
14.92% 30-39
14.02% 40-49
21.61% 50-64
16.58% 65+
3.39%   Unknown

[prag_prog]

Here is comparison of top16 counties turnout so far by race in runoff vs November EV -

[Skill and Chance]

Here's the damage:

Really hard to see how Walker comes back from this.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Updated figure on % of GE EV by district, now with the right IV/DV setup and polynomial fit since the relationship is actually fairly messy:

[Tekken_Guy]

Here is comparison of top16 counties turnout so far by race in runoff vs November EV -

If those numbers are correct then it would take a miracle for Walker to win at this point.

[Sol]

Interesting.  While I understand it as an accommodation for voters who received their ballots late and didn't want to risk entering a public building during a pandemic, it doesn't really make sense to me why anyone would drop off an absentee ballot day-of vs. just handing in/destroying the blank ballot and voting in-person in a normal election?  First of all, this doesn't help people who requested mail ballots because they are out of town or unable to physically go to the polling place.  If you are in town on election day anyway, why would you risk having your absentee ballot disqualified on a technicality when you could put one in the machine normally and watch it get counted?

I assume a lot of people find it a little bit easier in terms of preparing for the election--as they research candidates they can fill the ballot out as they go rather than having to prep in advance.

I do actually have some concerns about no-fault absentee voting -- it offers an opening for CentristRepublican style "voting for your family member" -- but easier prep is actually a good thing about it.

[prag_prog]

Here is comparison of top16 counties turnout so far by race in runoff vs November EV -

If those numbers are correct then it would take a miracle for Walker to win at this point.

Walker's best hope at this point is Day turnout being much much higher than anticipated

[Tekken_Guy]

Here is comparison of top16 counties turnout so far by race in runoff vs November EV -

If those numbers are correct then it would take a miracle for Walker to win at this point.

Walker's best hope at this point is Day turnout being much much higher than anticipated

And more Republican.

[Skill and Chance]

Interesting.  While I understand it as an accommodation for voters who received their ballots late and didn't want to risk entering a public building during a pandemic, it doesn't really make sense to me why anyone would drop off an absentee ballot day-of vs. just handing in/destroying the blank ballot and voting in-person in a normal election?  First of all, this doesn't help people who requested mail ballots because they are out of town or unable to physically go to the polling place.  If you are in town on election day anyway, why would you risk having your absentee ballot disqualified on a technicality when you could put one in the machine normally and watch it get counted?

I assume a lot of people find it a little bit easier in terms of preparing for the election--as they research candidates they can fill the ballot out as they go rather than having to prep in advance.

I do actually have some concerns about no-fault absentee voting -- it offers an opening for CentristRepublican style "voting for your family member" -- but easier prep is actually a good thing about it.

I also take the secret ballot concerns about mail-in voting seriously.  Note also that this could particularly cut against historically poor/oppressed groups in the long run.  For that reason, I do think it should be reserved for voters who are sick or expect to be out of town.  All voters would be considered sick while a public health emergency is in effect.  Instead, I would have 3 weeks of in-person early voting open to everyone.  It would be required to include at least 2 weekends.  Also, all candidate debates must be held before the start of early voting.  

[Spectator]

Sticking with my prediction of Warnock +4. That might be conservative too.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1599137785033592832

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1599137785033592832

I burst out laughing when I saw this.

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1599137785033592832

I burst out laughing when I saw this.

He does this to himself? My guess is that Warlock has an equal chance at 52% as the Werewolf getting 50%.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Updated figure on % of GE EV by district, now with the right IV/DV setup and polynomial fit since the relationship is actually fairly messy:

I would have about 0.1% confidence in that line (and sounds like you would also not have much more since you mention it is pretty messy). It also has the shape it has because of the assumption that it has a polynomial functional form. You would get very different results if you assumed even a different degree polynomial.

Part of the issue is there are not many data points, so if it were possible to do the same thing for state house districts or something like that which is a bit more granular, you might be able to see some more reliable patterns. Could be interesting to see possibly.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1599137785033592832

I burst out laughing when I saw this.

He does this to himself?

Well, what can I say? Walker clearly flatlined in his personal self-improvement after he stopped appearing on Celebrity Apprentice.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Updated figure on % of GE EV by district, now with the right IV/DV setup and polynomial fit since the relationship is actually fairly messy:

I would have about 0.1% confidence in that line (and sounds like you would also not have much more since you mention it is pretty messy). It also has the shape it has because of the assumption that it has a polynomial functional form. You would get very different results if you assumed even a different degree polynomial.

Part of the issue is there are not many data points, so if it were possible to do the same thing for state house districts or something like that which is a bit more granular, you might be able to see some more reliable patterns. Could be interesting to see possibly.

I picked order-3 because that's when the pattern largely stabilizes. But yeah, it's not really meaningful. I guess it is a bit telling that the relationship is positive around the neutral-PVI point but negative around very partisan districts (the somewhat swingy areas are the ones trending toward Warnock), but yeah, can't make too much of it.