GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[Adam Griffin]

(I know wb already posted this, but just doing so for record-keeping/tracking purposes personally):

So far in the 2022 runoff election, 1,472,518 people have voted.

328,360 votes were received on Thursday. Looks like a hair over 50,000 mail ballots were received & processed yesterday in addition to around 280k in-person votes.

In terms of ballots received in a single day (AIP+ABM combined), this missed breaking the one-day record (Tuesday) by just 699 votes.

54.8% White
32.4% Black
9.5% Other
1.7% Asian
1.6% Latino

55.7% Female
44.0% Male

7.0% 18-29
7.8% 30-39
11.6% 40-49
31.9% 50-64
41.5% 65+

[Adam Griffin]

We're definitely going to hit and almost certainly exceed 1.8m votes once those cast/received today are counted. I'm still thinking 400k today (AIP+ABM) is possible, but 370k may be more a realistic minimum baseline. Either way, that gets us to around 1.85m votes minimum.

If we assume ABM return rates are comparable to November, there are 95-100k ABMs still out there waiting to be received. Given we received a whopping 50k yesterday (over 20% of all ABMs issued in this runoff), I'm a bit doubtful such a number will arrive today - but a good 30k today is definitely doable, leaving up to another 70k to arrive over the weekend/Monday/Tuesday.

In the end, it's very easy to see how we get above 1.9m by Tuesday from in-person early and mail combined.

[Rookie Yinzer]

L2 estimates that the early vote is about D+10 right now

https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1598686174742286338

Probably much more D in reality since a lot of Democrats voted for Kemp and Raffensperger in the primary.

And a substantial number of Rs will be voting for Warnock.

I don't think using primary participation is an accurate representation of how voters are likely to vote in the runoff. I typically vote in the R primaries and know a number of Warnock voters that do as well. I do this because for most local elections, the primary election is more competitive than the general election, and I want to have a say in who will end up representing me.

Also, GA doesn't have partisan registration, but if it did, I don't think Raffensberger would have won his primary (without a runoff at least) if it were closed to Is and Ds.

I was talking about literal Kemp/Warnock voters, not primary preference. I expect those types to be high propensity and willing to turn out for Warnock again (to stop Walker) vs low propensity hardliners who voted Kemp/Walker out of party loyalty but don’t like Walker enough to show up a second time when no check on Biden is needed/at stake.

[Adam Griffin]

Current turnout (% of registered voters) by CD:

[Adam Griffin]

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1598741334231109633

[GeorgiaModerate]

Current turnout (% of registered voters) by CD:

How does that compare to the GE?

[Adam Griffin]

Average wait time in Fulton is well over an hour right now. It's approaching 45 minutes in Gwinnett & Dekalb. Cobb's currently at around a 15-minute average.

[Landslide Lyndon]

WTF is wrong with these people?

https://twitter.com/isaacstanbecker/status/1598738872355065856

[Adam Griffin]

How does that compare to the GE?

As with all too many data-points I decide to look at in a given election, I either can't find my old observations or didn't take any in the first place. In other words: no idea!

[Adam Griffin]

https://twitter.com/NapervillePol/status/1598743801824149520

[forsythvoter]

L2 estimates that the early vote is about D+10 right now

https://twitter.com/L2political/status/1598686174742286338

Probably much more D in reality since a lot of Democrats voted for Kemp and Raffensperger in the primary.

And a substantial number of Rs will be voting for Warnock.

I don't think using primary participation is an accurate representation of how voters are likely to vote in the runoff. I typically vote in the R primaries and know a number of Warnock voters that do as well. I do this because for most local elections, the primary election is more competitive than the general election, and I want to have a say in who will end up representing me.

Also, GA doesn't have partisan registration, but if it did, I don't think Raffensberger would have won his primary (without a runoff at least) if it were closed to Is and Ds.

I was talking about literal Kemp/Warnock voters, not primary preference. I expect those types to be high propensity and willing to turn out for Warnock again (to stop Walker) vs low propensity hardliners who voted Kemp/Walker out of party loyalty but don’t like Walker enough to show up a second time when no check on Biden is needed/at stake.

I'm not disagreeing with you. My point was just that Kemp / Warnock voters who voted in the R primary are most likely disproportionately Is and not Rs.

[Devout Centrist]

https://twitter.com/NapervillePol/status/1598743801824149520

Disastrous!!!!

[Antonio the Sixth]

Current turnout (% of registered voters) by CD:

Do you have that as percentage of the GE EV? I think that's the more relevant metric here.

[Adam Griffin]

Current turnout (% of registered voters) by CD:

Do you have that as percentage of the GE EV? I think that's the more relevant metric here.

https://georgiavotes.com/ushouse.php

[Adam Griffin]

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1598759670453194752

[Antonio the Sixth]

Current turnout (% of registered voters) by CD:

Do you have that as percentage of the GE EV? I think that's the more relevant metric here.

https://georgiavotes.com/ushouse.php

Here is it plotted against PVI.



Not a strong correlation, but it's clearly there.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Moderator Notice

Following discussion among the mods, we have instituted the following policy for the Congressional Election Results and GA-SEN threads, effective immediately.  There will be zero tolerance for concern trolling, dooming, or any other form of trolling.  Offenders will be muted from the Congressional Elections Board until after the Georgia runoff.  There will be no other warnings given.

This includes trolling as an attempt at humor or satire; if that spoils your fun, you should probably find another source of amusement.

Due to MillennialModerate's egregious behavior in this regard during the general election, this action has already been taken in his case.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/NapervillePol/status/1598743801824149520

Is this guy trolling? Because it's not funny

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NapervillePol/status/1598743801824149520

Is this guy trolling? Because it's not funny

No, I think the point he's making is that you can't make simplistic judgements about party breakdown of the electorate without looking at the whole context.

[Adam Griffin]

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1598791472773406720

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1598795201954435072

[Adam Griffin]

As of 5 PM (or later; some places have updated since), average EV wait time in Cobb is 30 minutes; Dekalb is 45 minutes; Fulton is well over an hour; Gwinnett & Clayton at roughly 1.5 hours.

[Adam Griffin]

Glorious News!

https://twitter.com/OregonMapGuy/status/1598811729047289857

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think Warnock wins this and it will be pretty clear pretty fast that he has won.

If Walker somehow narrowly eeks it out though, that would be a huge gut punch, especially since he'll have the seat until 2028 and I just seem him as a laughingstock of a Senator who's incredibly ineffective. It still is theoretically possible with insane E-Day turnout but right now I'm leaning no to that happening.

I do wonder if Warnock will be able to get within single digits in either of GA-06 or GA-11. They're both northern Atlanta suburban/exurban districts that went to Trump by 15 but have been shifting very hard left with little sign of slowing down.

[Tekken_Guy]

I think Warnock wins this and it will be pretty clear pretty fast that he has won.

If Walker somehow narrowly eeks it out though, that would be a huge gut punch, especially since he'll have the seat until 2028 and I just seem him as a laughingstock of a Senator who's incredibly ineffective. It still is theoretically possible with insane E-Day turnout but right now I'm leaning no to that happening.

I do wonder if Warnock will be able to get within single digits in either of GA-06 or GA-11. They're both northern Atlanta suburban/exurban districts that went to Trump by 15 but have been shifting very hard left with little sign of slowing down.

I'd say Warnock wins by around 5 points or so. Walker needs an inside straight to win this. ED turnout needs to be both insane, and insanely R, for him to squeak by.

Would also be poetic for Walker to lose by 4.9, since that's the same margin Oz and Masters lost by.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think Warnock wins this and it will be pretty clear pretty fast that he has won.

If Walker somehow narrowly eeks it out though, that would be a huge gut punch, especially since he'll have the seat until 2028 and I just seem him as a laughingstock of a Senator who's incredibly ineffective. It still is theoretically possible with insane E-Day turnout but right now I'm leaning no to that happening.

I do wonder if Warnock will be able to get within single digits in either of GA-06 or GA-11. They're both northern Atlanta suburban/exurban districts that went to Trump by 15 but have been shifting very hard left with little sign of slowing down.

I'd say Warnock wins by around 5 points or so. Walker needs an inside straight to win this. ED turnout needs to be both insane, and insanely R, for him to squeak by.

Would also be poetic for Walker to lose by 4.9, since that's the same margin Oz and Masters lost by.

Gives me vibes of how AZ-Sen 2018 and AZ-Sen 2020 had eerily close margins of D+2.35. Every now and then you just get weird clustering of results.