GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[Adam Griffin]

I do wonder if Warnock will be able to get within single digits in either of GA-06 or GA-11. They're both northern Atlanta suburban/exurban districts that went to Trump by 15 but have been shifting very hard left with little sign of slowing down.

Warnock lost the new GA-6 by 17 points & the new GA-11 by 15 points. It's pretty funny to think that GA-11 could be closer than the "numerical district" McBath holds going forward. Of course, new GA-11 takes in some of the more Democratic Cobb areas, while new GA-6 stretches considerably further north than previously.

Either way, doubtful for either. If Warnock goes from winning by 2 in 2021 runoff to winning by even 4-5 next week, I really doubt enough of the excess will come from either district to make it possible (maybe GA-11, but just barely; say a 9.x-point loss for Warnock there).

[ProgressiveModerate]

I do wonder if Warnock will be able to get within single digits in either of GA-06 or GA-11. They're both northern Atlanta suburban/exurban districts that went to Trump by 15 but have been shifting very hard left with little sign of slowing down.

Warnock lost the new GA-6 by 17 points & the new GA-11 by 15 points. It's pretty funny to think that GA-11 could be closer than the "numerical district" McBath holds going forward. Of course, new GA-11 takes in some of the more Democratic Cobb areas, while new GA-6 stretches considerably further north than previously.

Either way, doubtful for either. If Warnock goes from winning by 2 in 2021 runoff to winning by even 4-5 next week, I really doubt enough of the excess will come from either district to make it possible (maybe GA-11, but just barely; say a 9.x-point loss for Warnock there).

Damn for some reason I thought he did slightly better in both in the 2022 GE; ig downballot lag really is true considering these districts have large white populations that have been the biggest ticket-splitters in recent elections.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I do wonder if Warnock will be able to get within single digits in either of GA-06 or GA-11. They're both northern Atlanta suburban/exurban districts that went to Trump by 15 but have been shifting very hard left with little sign of slowing down.

Warnock lost the new GA-6 by 17 points & the new GA-11 by 15 points. It's pretty funny to think that GA-11 could be closer than the "numerical district" McBath holds going forward. Of course, new GA-11 takes in some of the more Democratic Cobb areas, while new GA-6 stretches considerably further north than previously.

Either way, doubtful for either. If Warnock goes from winning by 2 in 2021 runoff to winning by even 4-5 next week, I really doubt enough of the excess will come from either district to make it possible (maybe GA-11, but just barely; say a 9.x-point loss for Warnock there).

Damn for some reason I thought he did slightly better in both in the 2022 GE; ig downballot lag really is true considering these districts have large white populations that have been the biggest ticket-splitters in recent elections.

Yes, but you have to consider just where those white populations are.  The 6th (my new district, since I live in Forsyth County) now includes all of Forsyth and Dawson Counties and a big chunk of Cherokee -- all very Republican counties.  The part in Fulton County is the old Milton County, which is the most Republican part of Fulton.  The tiny parts of Cobb and Gwinnett in the district don't do that much to offset that base.

[Tekken_Guy]

I do wonder if Warnock will be able to get within single digits in either of GA-06 or GA-11. They're both northern Atlanta suburban/exurban districts that went to Trump by 15 but have been shifting very hard left with little sign of slowing down.

Warnock lost the new GA-6 by 17 points & the new GA-11 by 15 points. It's pretty funny to think that GA-11 could be closer than the "numerical district" McBath holds going forward. Of course, new GA-11 takes in some of the more Democratic Cobb areas, while new GA-6 stretches considerably further north than previously.

Either way, doubtful for either. If Warnock goes from winning by 2 in 2021 runoff to winning by even 4-5 next week, I really doubt enough of the excess will come from either district to make it possible (maybe GA-11, but just barely; say a 9.x-point loss for Warnock there).

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1598009332930863104

Walker actually only won the new GA-6 by 14, which is slightly less than what Trump won it by. If he actually had won it by 17 then Walker probably would have finished first in November. If it's in single digits expect a quick call for Warnock.

Yes, but you have to consider just where those white populations are.  The 6th (my new district, since I live in Forsyth County) now includes all of Forsyth and Dawson Counties and a big chunk of Cherokee -- all very Republican counties.  The part in Fulton County is the old Milton County, which is the most Republican part of Fulton.  The tiny parts of Cobb and Gwinnett in the district don't do that much to offset that base.

The Cobb portion is far from tiny. It has over 150,000 people living in it, about 1/5 of the district's population.

And honestly everywhere in the district outside of Dawson and the northernmost parts of Cherokee are stampeding leftward.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1598835714644246529

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/evamckend/status/1598811955803856904

https://twitter.com/ReeseMcCranie/status/1598812275539845121

Can any of our Atlanta folks identify the second location?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/bposhea/status/1598844234043269121

[skbl17]

https://twitter.com/evamckend/status/1598811955803856904

https://twitter.com/ReeseMcCranie/status/1598812275539845121

Can any of our Atlanta folks identify the second location?

I thought that area looked familiar: https://www.google.com/maps/@33.7738889,-84.3533099,3a,75y,265.62h,93.97t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sZuBPfJalkjZgtbop0Bn18w!2e0!7i16384!8i8192

That's a stretch of Ponce de Leon Ave. just west of the Moreland Avenue/Briarcliff Rd. (US 23) intersection. Driven by there many times; this is just inside Fulton County, but the DeKalb County line is literally two blocks east of where the photo was taken.

The line is for the Joan P. Garner Library location, which has a 95 minute wait as I type this.

[Хahar 🤔]

That's a stretch of Ponce de Leon Ave. just west of the Moreland Avenue/Briarcliff Rd. (US 23) intersection. Driven by there many times; this is just inside Fulton County, but the DeKalb County line is literally two blocks east of where the photo was taken.

Man, I felt so good about myself for recognizing this and had a reply ready only to see that I'd been scooped.

[Adam Griffin]

I do wonder if Warnock will be able to get within single digits in either of GA-06 or GA-11. They're both northern Atlanta suburban/exurban districts that went to Trump by 15 but have been shifting very hard left with little sign of slowing down.

Warnock lost the new GA-6 by 17 points & the new GA-11 by 15 points. It's pretty funny to think that GA-11 could be closer than the "numerical district" McBath holds going forward. Of course, new GA-11 takes in some of the more Democratic Cobb areas, while new GA-6 stretches considerably further north than previously.

Either way, doubtful for either. If Warnock goes from winning by 2 in 2021 runoff to winning by even 4-5 next week, I really doubt enough of the excess will come from either district to make it possible (maybe GA-11, but just barely; say a 9.x-point loss for Warnock there).

Damn for some reason I thought he did slightly better in both in the 2022 GE; ig downballot lag really is true considering these districts have large white populations that have been the biggest ticket-splitters in recent elections.

Sorry, maybe I was mistaken: the margins I quoted were from the 2021 runoffs in the new incarnations of those districts. No idea how he performed in November in the same jurisdictions. There definitely will be the largest ticket-splitting in said areas of any going back the better part of a decade, today, or going forward for many years, however.

[prag_prog]

Question for Georgia folks...are such long wait times a common thing during Early Voting ? Or is it just specific to runoff due to a shorter EV period ?

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1598854794038214656

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I said this before and I say it again Biden polls are going upwards not downward towards 24 as we look to try again for a Filibuster proof Trifecta if Eday was held today with the Fuentes and YE flap Ds would of won the H and Beasley and Ryan and Barnes would of been elected

You haven't heard much from Trump since the YE and Fuentes flop

We are looking at a 51/49 S as we head towards 24 Eliminate Sinema hold Brown and Tester and elect Matthew Sancrainte in FL, Biden is already leading Trump in FL and Stein is leading in NC

[Adam Griffin]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1598009332930863104

Walker actually only won the new GA-6 by 14, which is slightly less than what Trump won it by. If he actually had won it by 17 then Walker probably would have finished first in November. If it's in single digits expect a quick call for Warnock.

Trump won new GA-6 by 14.8 points, to clarify - sorry for not explaining.

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::3a370cc7-f820-4af4-8fca-a27ec52502b7

Warnock in the 2021 runoff lost new GA-6 by 17 points (58.5-41.5).

[Adam Griffin]

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1598854794038214656

With ABMs, we're definitely hitting at least 370k by the time we get the final report for Friday.

[Podgy the Bear]

Question for Georgia folks...are such long wait times a common thing during Early Voting ? Or is it just specific to runoff due to a shorter EV period ?

Definitely the shorter EV period.  I did EV for November and was in and out in less than 10 minutes.  The same polling place has been running close to 2 hour waits for this week, and I didn't have the time to take off to vote with a busy schedule at work.

I would hope that in the future, people will push for the expanded EV period--or to do away with runoffs altogether.

[Adam Griffin]

Question for Georgia folks...are such long wait times a common thing during Early Voting ? Or is it just specific to runoff due to a shorter EV period ?

When there are 16+ days of EV (or more like 17-19 in the metro counties)? Not at all. These wait times are insane, but only because a very large percentage of people are being shoved into 5-7 days. Long lines were way more common c. 2008-2016 when EV was rapidly growing as a share of voters. For the past several cycles, a majority of voters have cast ballots early & counties adjusted for it under regular election cycles.

I suspect counties did not prepare properly for this: in 2018 statewide runoffs, there were only 1.5m voters (compared to 4.0m in the GE) & in the 2021 runoffs, a very large chunk of the electorate automatically received or requested mail ballots if they voted at any point prior in the cycle (around 30% of all voters). Neither is true today, hence the overload - which for any of us on this forum even, could have been prepared for adequately.

[Adam Griffin]

None of the major sources seem to have updated turnout figures, so I decided to take a look at the SoS absentee file that - magically, for once this week - posted in the middle of the night and now requires splicing into multiple files in order to load.

1,860,717 voters are listed as having their ballots cast/returned as of now. This includes whomever may have their mail ballots rejected (as of Friday's close, this discrepancy is just a hair under 1,000 votes) as well as my projections of another 70k ABMs yet to be returned (there are 96k ABMs outstanding, but I'm projecting 90% return rate - as we saw in November - among the 236k total ABMs issued). At any rate...

...with the above numbers, 388,199 ballots (+/- 1000) were cast or returned yesterday (Friday). This is obviously a record-breaking one-day total. We'll have final data (with race, gender and age breakdowns) this morning at some point.

There may be a handful of counties or ballots yet to be reported to SoS in the mix from Friday, but I don't expect them to be a large sum. As such, we can take the 1.86m banked EVs and combine them with 0.07m EVs to arrive at a grand projected EV total of 1,930,000 early votes cast for the runoff.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

None of the major sources seem to have updated turnout figures, so I decided to take a look at the SoS absentee file that - magically, for once this week - posted in the middle of the night and now requires splicing into multiple files in order to load.

1,860,717 voters are listed as having their ballots cast/returned as of now. This includes whomever may have their mail ballots rejected (as of Friday's close, this discrepancy is just a hair under 1,000 votes) as well as my projections of another 70k ABMs yet to be returned (there are 96k ABMs outstanding, but I'm projecting 90% return rate - as we saw in November - among the 236k total ABMs issued). At any rate...

...with the above numbers, 388,199 ballots (+/- 1000) were cast or returned yesterday (Friday). This is obviously a record-breaking one-day total. We'll have final data (with race, gender and age breakdowns) this morning at some point.

There may be a handful of counties or ballots yet to be reported to SoS in the mix from Friday, but I don't expect them to be a large sum. As such, we can take the 1.86m banked EVs and combine them with 0.07m EVs to arrive at a grand projected EV total of 1,930,000 early votes cast for the runoff.

Hey! You don't get to use red text for non-mod-related posts! I was all excited for someone getting yelled at. 

Seriously though, can someone remind me: what was the EV total heading into runoff day of 2020?

[wbrocks67]

Black share % only went down a smidge from yesterday overall

1,852,576 total EV

55.0% white
31.8% black
1.7% hispanic
1.8% asian
9.6% other

[Holmes]

Seriously though, can someone remind me: what was the EV total heading into runoff day of 2020?

You mean for the 2021 runoff? This is what the SoS website says:

1316760 Election Day Votes
1084021 Absentee by Mail Votes
2074139 Advanced Voting Votes
10034 Provisional Votes

[GeorgiaModerate]

Anti-Walker attack ad to air during the SEC football championship game between LSU and Georgia:

AJC story

[Spectator]

I know this EV electorate is blacker than the November 2022 one, but is it blacker/less white than Jan 2021? Bad news for Walker on the first count already.

[Brittain33]

Anti-Walker attack ad to air during the SEC football championship game between LSU and Georgia:

AJC story

I have a bad feeling that running an ad showing that Walker's paramours were white women was done thinking that this might have an additional suppressive effect on the core Republican base. "I met Harold at the Playboy Mansion!"

[Person Man]

Anti-Walker attack ad to air during the SEC football championship game between LSU and Georgia:

AJC story

I have a bad feeling that running an ad showing that Walker's paramours were white women was done thinking that this might have an additional suppressive effect on the core Republican base. "I met Harold at the Playboy Mansion!"

Then again, Mr. Ford was just being a normal healthy single heterosexual  upper middle to lower upper class man in his 30s.

Walker is a whole other level.

But on the part you are getting at- if people don’t want to be persuaded this way, it’s their problem. We need to look in the mirror more.