GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[GeorgiaModerate]

Harry Enten: How Donald Trump is helping Raphael Warnock in Georgia

[Tekken_Guy]

Walker not only needs Election Day to have more raw voters than we saw in an almost certainly higher turnout contest (2021 runoff), but he needs to win them by more than Loeffler did in order to win.

And finally, in my hypothetical scenario, Walker does get higher raw election day turnout than in the 2020-21 runoff, but there is a logical explanation for why that could plausibly be the case, namely the shortened early vote period this time.

And in contrast to your statement that Walker would need to win them by more than Loeffler did to win, he wins them by a LOWER margin than Loeffler, but nevertheless that is enough for a narrow Walker victory.


So while I would rather be Warnock than Walker at this point, I don't think we are necessarily quite out of the woods yet.

The problem for Walker is not that he needs to outperform or only slightly underperform Loeffler’s 2021 margin. It’s that he heavily needs to outperform his first round margin of 15 by several points if ED turnout is the same as round 1 and there’s no “early voters switching to ED” bonus for Warnock.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1599428404532891649

As an atheist I do like seeing the religious left maybe making a resurgence in the states.

[Dani Rose]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1599428404532891649

As an atheist I do like seeing the religious left maybe making a resurgence in the states.

Dread Him. Run from Him. Socialist Jesus arrives all the same.

[Torrain]

https://mobile.twitter.com/VaughnHillyard/status/1599545718070734848

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1599428404532891649

As an atheist I do like seeing the religious left maybe making a resurgence in the states.

Dread Him. Run from Him. Socialist Jesus arrives all the same.

Literally.

[Tekken_Guy]

Herschel Walker's problem, shown in one chart.

The consensus is that the Early vote will be at least Warnock+16. He won it by 10 in the first round, and a 16% advantage actually nets him 40k more votes over Walker in the runoff.

Let's assume that the absolute ceiling for election day turnout is the 1.37 million voters who voted for either major party candidate.

If that's the case, Walker needs to win the election day vote by nearly 22 points just to break even with Warnock. He only won the first round by 16. And the lower election day turnout gets, the steeper the hill is to climb.

Walker needs to hope that the Warnock EV advantage is smaller than expected, that turnout on ED is both high and strongly Republican, and that Kemp voters who voted for Chase Oliver or left their ballot blank show up for Walker.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1599428404532891649

As an atheist I do like seeing the religious left maybe making a resurgence in the states.

Dread Him. Run from Him. Socialist Jesus arrives all the same.

Happy Advent!

[brucejoel99]

We are SO F**KING BACK:

https://twitter.com/billscher/status/1599582500325453824

[Dani Rose]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1599428404532891649

As an atheist I do like seeing the religious left maybe making a resurgence in the states.

Dread Him. Run from Him. Socialist Jesus arrives all the same.

Happy Advent!

Thank you! Many blessings, Nathan!

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

We are SO F**KING BACK:

https://twitter.com/billscher/status/1599582500325453824

We never left 🤩

[OSR stands with Israel]

Scott Walker should have run this year so we would have had a great candidate named Walker in office.

[Хahar 🤔]

Still baffles me how the Georgia GOP and national GOP groups let such an awful candidate like Walker run- especially after Loefller.

Its not as if they’re short of a bench statewide; I’m tempted to say even some random state office holder, judge or random GOP aide (see Alabama senate) would have been miles better.

I'm not sure what "especially after Loeffler" means here. As I've pointed out repeatedly on the forum, if you use election results to judge how strong a candidate was, then Loeffler was just as strong a candidate as David Perdue, who we kept hearing was an especially good candidate. If you have some other metric for determining how strong a candidate was, then you should get rid of that and look at election results instead.

As for the question at hand, Republicans are obsessed with celebrities. The most prominent example of this is obvious, but you see this with the likes of Mehmet Oz and you see it in the way that the right-wing media stampedes to embrace any celebrity who might conceivably agree with them (as in the case of Kanye West). You can say a lot of things about Herschel Walker, but what you cannot say is that he isn't extremely famous.

There's also the matter of Walker's longstanding relationship with the leader of the Republican Party, going back to his time with the New Jersey Generals in the 1980s. His loyalty meant that he was always going to get the only endorsement that mattered, and once he had that nobody else stood a chance in the Republican primary.

[Adam Griffin]

*snip*

I'll do my best to address all of this, but I do think there is one major point that needs to be reiterated: the shift among 2022 primary voters in this runoff:

Entering the final day of early voting in November (Friday), GOP-22 primary voters had a net advantage of 185572 votes.

For this runoff? Their advantage entering Friday was 8181 votes.

The two-way model there shifts from 57.0-43.0 in November to 50.5-49.5 today: 13 points.

The share of EVs in November that were 2022 primary voters was 52.5%: today, it is 46.8%. Yes: a greater share of the EV electorate in the runoff than in the general did not participate in the 2022 primaries.

We all have to make assumptions here and there, but it's pretty safe to say based on the D-R primary composition from November that non-primary EVs were considerably more pro-Warnock. If we assume for a second that non-primary EVs are identical in preference as they were in November, that alone is still enough to shift Warnock to around a 17-point EV lead.

But what happens if we - I think somewhat justifiably, given what we're seeing with higher-propensity participants thus far - assume that the ~53% of runoff EVs who didn't vote in the primary have likewise shifted substantially in Warnock's direction? If they have shifted by the same amount, then we're potentially looking at an EV lead for Warnock of 23-24 points.

While this likely isn't where things end up, such a scenario would require Walker clearing 65-35 on ED with a 1.5m vote electorate. Even a more modest scenario where Warnock wins EV by 18 points requires Walker winning by 25 with 1.45m, give or take.

It's not that there isn't a pathway (and perhaps me saying "it's over" etc was a bit too definitive), but it's a pretty fleeting one given what we've seen in recent Georgia elections. Increasingly, high rates of EV participation are making the early vote more informative than even just a few years ago. Georgia's not at NV or FL levels of predictability yet, but we're looking at Walker needing an unusual combination of factors to have a real shot.

[Adam Griffin]

And yes: maybe a good chunk of people are staying at home until Election Day. I still think that such an effect would also strengthen Warnock's prospects, given that long lines weren't a thing outside a handful of predominantly urban Democratic counties. If this dynamic of waiting due to schedule restrictions and long lines turns out to be true, it's more likely to dilute the ED margins Walker can expect rather than enhance them.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

To those in the know: are we likely to see any big discrepancies from the general to the special in terms of county margins? (As in counties shifting greatly from November 8th to this Toozdee?)

Use a no. 2 pencil, and show your work for partial credit

[wbrocks67]

FWIW, Ossoff's favorability is +3 in the new UMass Lowell GA poll, essentially the same as Warnock's +4

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000184-e01f-d4af-a9a4-e9bf6d280000

[GeorgiaModerate]

John Couvillon with a longish Twitter thread analyzing what Walker needs to do to win the runoff: https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1599057990966947842.  TL;DR: It's a tall order.

[Spectator]

To those in the know: are we likely to see any big discrepancies from the general to the special in terms of county margins? (As in counties shifting greatly from November 8th to this Toozdee?)

Use a no. 2 pencil, and show your work for partial credit

None of us can know for sure, but Fayette County looks primed to flip. Its black share of the electorate is actually a little higher than the statewide share. Wouldn’t be surprised if Warnock flips back Baldwin and Washington too. Maybe Burke, but that one’s probably gone.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Tomorrow's weather forecast in Atlanta (per Weather Underground) is rain to start the day, ending around 4pm, with a high of 64F.  The forecast is worse further north; in my location (40 miles north of Atlanta) it's rain all day with a high of 56F.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1599793430678601728

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As I said before Biden isn't at 37/57 IPSOS POLL, he is 46% in Rassy poll and is likely to win the PVI in 24 every Prez except Bush W and Obama have increased their EC margin

It's likely a DeSantis v Biden race and tax cuts are not popular outside the South, because still pay Properties and Sales taxes double taxation anyways, tax cuts at the Federal Levels doesn't elevate you from Property taxes that the rich must pay

Rs keep saying keep taxes low but fail to tell you about eleviate Property tax and HI, FL, NY and CA have the highest property tax

[Smash255]

To those in the know: are we likely to see any big discrepancies from the general to the special in terms of county margins? (As in counties shifting greatly from November 8th to this Toozdee?)

Use a no. 2 pencil, and show your work for partial credit

My general thinking is suburban Atlanta, where the GOP vote being Pro-Kemp compared to Pro-Walker was likely the greatest, Trump likely doesn't help there either   Only potential caveat to that is, those are likely higher propensity voters as opposed to a more rural part of the state

[Tekken_Guy]

To those in the know: are we likely to see any big discrepancies from the general to the special in terms of county margins? (As in counties shifting greatly from November 8th to this Toozdee?)

Use a no. 2 pencil, and show your work for partial credit

My general thinking is suburban Atlanta, where the GOP vote being Pro-Kemp compared to Pro-Walker was likely the greatest, Trump likely doesn't help there either   Only potential caveat to that is, those are likely higher propensity voters as opposed to a more rural part of the state.

I think that this is the place we see a lot of Walker first round voters stay home or outright switch to Warnock.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1599773353073836036