GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[Adam Griffin]

Keep an eye out in the coming days for Duncan's data in the MVP file (usually takes a day or so to show up there - though when the SoS updates this morning with its absentee file, it should be visible there first if he did in fact vote):

https://mvp.sos.ga.gov/s/

G
Duncan
Forsyth
04/01/1975

*then click on "absentee ballot portal" at top of page*

[MillennialModerate]

More than likely going to see more Dems vote on Election Day than what has been the case lately… I say that because despite having nearly a million early votes so far that only represents around a quarter of the total midterm votes.

Everyone acting like this race is over is making a mistake. I think Warnock is favored but the turnout factor is an enormous wild card. It’s tough to say which base is less motivated to come out and vote.
 

[Tekken_Guy]

More than likely going to see more Dems vote on Election Day than what has been the case lately… I say that because despite having nearly a million early votes so far that only represents around a quarter of the total midterm votes.

Everyone acting like this race is over is making a mistake. I think Warnock is favored but the turnout factor is an enormous wild card. It’s tough to say which base is less motivated to come out and vote.
 

It’s simple. Democrats actually like their guy. Republicans are lukewarm on Walker and his voters have to be dragged to the polls.

[pantsaregood]

More than likely going to see more Dems vote on Election Day than what has been the case lately… I say that because despite having nearly a million early votes so far that only represents around a quarter of the total midterm votes.

Everyone acting like this race is over is making a mistake. I think Warnock is favored but the turnout factor is an enormous wild card. It’s tough to say which base is less motivated to come out and vote.
 

When does the dooming begin? Is it on election day or sooner?

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

Solid, impactful ad. $6 Million ad buy, btw.

Or at least, as impactful as advertising can be these days.

I have to assume they deliberately chose that specific image of Walker's son with the Trump shirt on? Subtle way to say "this isn't about politics, it's about character" even if Trump isn't exactly of the highest moral character to begin with...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is a status quo Eday and so will the Senate and Prez no Incumbent Senator lost and NC and KY have Incumbency advantage as well as Sen and clearly Ds are Favs in the H due to NY and CA in 24 due to 4.2% unemployment

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

https://twitter.com/natalie_allison/status/1598139129673678849

Should have cast a blank or a write-in. Not voting is just a failure of one's civic duty and especially inexcusable of a public official.

I’m pretty sure you can’t write-in a candidate in a run-off.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/natalie_allison/status/1598139129673678849

Should have cast a blank or a write-in. Not voting is just a failure of one's civic duty and especially inexcusable of a public official.

I’m pretty sure you can’t write-in a candidate in a run-off.

Correct.  There was no option for a write-in on our runoff ballot.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1598305595605618691

[wbrocks67]

1,148,191 total EV

53.9% white
33.2% black
1.5% hispanic
1.7% asian
0.2% Native American
9.4% other

[Brittain33]

1,148,191 total EV

53.9% white
33.2% black
1.5% hispanic
1.7% asian
0.2% Native American
9.4% other

Someone on Twitter described Warnock’s AA turnout as “cratering” because it fell from 50+% to 30%.

[forsythvoter]

Keep an eye out in the coming days for Duncan's data in the MVP file (usually takes a day or so to show up there - though when the SoS updates this morning with its absentee file, it should be visible there first if he did in fact vote):

https://mvp.sos.ga.gov/s/

G
Duncan
Forsyth
04/01/1975

*then click on "absentee ballot portal" at top of page*

H

Honestly, I'm really skeptical Duncan went to vote at all if he still resides in Forsyth County. The early vote lines here have not been long, so unless he hung around the polling place for an hour deciding whether to vote (which just doesn't pass the sniff test, not to meniton there was heavy rain yesterday), I think it's a fabrication.

The more interesting thing for me is that Duncan politically reflects a lot of GA folks under 45 I know who grew up R or in R households and increasingly feel alienated by the R party's branding - especially on topics such as abortion, free elections, same sex marriage, climate change etc. This hasn't fully translated into voting D and I think many of us are still wary of Ds potentially being "tax and spenders" with full control of government, but it does feel like an increasing number are willing to vote for a few Ds and see how it goes. I think these folks represent the critical "swing vote" in GA right now, and are why you can get results like Kemp / Warnock both winning.

[wbrocks67]

1,148,191 total EV

53.9% white
33.2% black
1.5% hispanic
1.7% asian
0.2% Native American
9.4% other

Someone on Twitter described Warnock’s AA turnout as “cratering” because it fell from 50+% to 30%.

You would think after all of us doing this *4 times* in like 2 years, people would finally get a grip on how these things work

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/christos_ioa/status/1598174684184707072

[Gass3268]

Duncan voted

https://twitter.com/BruneElections/status/1598337877473124354?s=20&t=cB10Gcw...

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/christos_ioa/status/1598174684184707072

That can't be serious?

[pppolitics]

Duncan voted

https://twitter.com/BruneElections/status/1598337877473124354?s=20&t=cB10Gcw...

TRANSLATION: He voted for Warnock, but doesn't want the Republican grassroot to burndown his house.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/christos_ioa/status/1598174684184707072

That can't be serious?

Has to be a joke.  It's pretty funny, actually.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Duncan voted

https://twitter.com/BruneElections/status/1598337877473124354?s=20&t=cB10Gcw...

The charitable interpretation is that he technically voted but left the ballot blank/spoiled. We'll never know, of course, but that it seems stupid thing for a public official to lie about something that's public record. Then again, that's a Republican we're talking about, so a stupid lie is never something we can rule out.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Duncan voted

https://twitter.com/BruneElections/status/1598337877473124354?s=20&t=cB10Gcw...

TRANSLATION: He voted for Warnock, but doesn't want the Republican grassroot to burndown his house.

From the actual clip of the CNN interview I saw, it sounded like he was saying he did vote but cast a blank ballot.

[prag_prog]

Maybe he might have left it blank ? Or is that possible to do in a runoff ?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Maybe he might have left it blank ? Or is that possible to do in a runoff ?

It is possible to do that on our voting machines.

[Adam Griffin]

So far in the 2022 runoff election, 1,144,158 people have voted.

310,688 voted on Wednesday.

54.0% White
33.3% Black
9.4% Other
1.7% Asian
1.6% Latino

55.4% Female
44.3% Male

6.8% 18-29
7.2% 30-39
11.0% 40-49
31.9% 50-64
42.9% 65+

[prag_prog]

I am looking at turnout so far in comparison to EV of General election...here are the bottom10 counties when you look at turnout % so far vs EV of general election. I included margins in November and total number of Registered Voters in the county -

Taylor     -    (19.3% of November EV, Walker+27,  6K RVs)
Coweta   -    (28.4% of November EV, Walker+34,  114K RVs)
Tift         -    (31.9% of November EV, Walker+39,  27K RVs)
Pickens   -    (32.7% of November EV, Walker+63,  26K RVs)
Cherokee -   (33.1% of November EV, Walker+38,  206K RVs)
Effingham -  (33.2% of November EV, Walker+46,  50K RVs)
Spalding -    (33.5% of November EV, Walker+17,  51K RVs)
Bibb       -    (35.2% of November EV, Warnock+24,115K RVs)
Columbia -   (35.6% of November EV, Walker+27,  120K RVs)
Fayette    -   (35.8% of November EV, Walker+3,    97K RVs)

Only one of these 10 counties voted for Warnock. Rest all are counties won by Walker and most of them were won by big margin. Some of these aren't even deep red rurals..isn't Cherokee one of the main GOP suburban counties ? Anyways statewide average right now is around 45%. So some significant underperformance even in some big counties.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I am looking at turnout so far in comparison to EV of General election...here are the bottom10 counties when you look at turnout % so far vs EV of general election. I included margins in November and total number of Registered Voters in the county -

Taylor     -    (19.3% of November EV, Walker+27,  6K RVs)
Coweta   -    (28.4% of November EV, Walker+34,  114K RVs)
Tift         -    (31.9% of November EV, Walker+39,  27K RVs)
Pickens   -    (32.7% of November EV, Walker+63,  26K RVs)
Cherokee -   (33.1% of November EV, Walker+38,  206K RVs)
Effingham -  (33.2% of November EV, Walker+46,  50K RVs)
Spalding -    (33.5% of November EV, Walker+17,  51K RVs)
Bibb       -    (35.2% of November EV, Warnock+24,115K RVs)
Columbia -   (35.6% of November EV, Walker+27,  120K RVs)
Fayette    -   (35.8% of November EV, Walker+3,    97K RVs)

Only one of these 10 counties voted for Warnock. Rest all are counties won by Walker and most of them were won by big margin. Some of these aren't even deep red rurals..isn't Cherokee one of the main GOP suburban counties ? Anyways statewide average right now is around 45%. So some significant underperformance even in some big counties.

Yes, Cherokee County is in the northwestern suburbs of Atlanta.  It's the largest source of GOP votes in the state because it's the most Republican among the large counties.